Reply #4: I think polls are overall reliable. [View All]

Of course, some are more accurate than others depending on the methodology used. Polls can be manipulated, and often are. However, if you take an average of recent polls that generally gives a pretty good idea of where things stand.

National polls aren't really important in a primary season, because obviously it's the state polls that count. In a caucus I think polling becomes really challenging because such a small percentage of the population historically attend a caucus. It comes down to who is going to be willing to go out in the dead of Winter and sit or stand for an (hour?) to support their candidate. And then there is the 15% rule where if a person's candidate is not viable, they go to their 2nd (and perhaps in some cases 3rd) choice. So, I think a caucus is particularly difficult to predict with polling.

The other thing is, unless Clinton really has a blowout in Iowa, which I think is unlikely, the polls will change dramatically in ways impossible to predict. So, polls are interesting now but certainly not determinative.