Reply #19: I Am Not Attacking Her Model...I Am Putting It In Context... [View All]

Lots of assumptions are built into a statistical model...

This is from David Yepsen of the Des Moine Register:


A lot of Democratic caucus-goers aren't all that Democratic. Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. (Technically, they'll all have to re-register as Democrats to participate, but that can be done at the caucus site.) Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they're Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent.

That will raise some eyebrows among party pros. While we all know the Democratic turnout will be large, the events just haven't attracted that many newcomers in the past. If that happens as the poll suggests, the caucuses will no longer be affairs of the party activists and faithful, but more like primaries.

Will some of these fair-weather Democrats not bother to show up? If they don't, it will change the outcome. If pollsters adjust the party identifications in 2008 to look like they did in 2004, Clinton could beat Obama 31 percent to 29 percent.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/OPINION01/71231038/-1/iowapoll07