Novakula's Iowa Caucus Predictions: Romney, Obama Win; Clinton Third [View All]

ENPR: Iowa Caucus Predictions: Romney, Obama Win; Clinton Third
by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney
Posted: 01/02/2008

Iowa Caucuses



Iowa voters tomorrow night will go to their local precinct caucuses to cast their lot with a presidential candidate. The winner is hardly guaranteed his party's nomination -- in fact, it's possible that neither Iowa winner will come out as the favorite for the nomination -- but the caucuses will certainly be the end of the road for some candidates.

Here are our analyses of the races as they stand now and the most likely outcomes:

Republicans: This is a two-way contest between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The battle for third place is among former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.), Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.). Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is not even spending this week in Iowa. Instead, he is campaigning in New Hampshire.

Democrats: This is a three-way contest among Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.). It's possible that there are only three survivors out of Iowa for the Democrats and that the second-tier candidates will be gone by New Hampshire.

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