"Don't bet on an Iowa bounce in N.H." [View All]

Over the last half-century, New Hampshire's famously independent first-in-the-nation primary voters have often followed their own path.

In 1980, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan won a two-to-one victory over George H.W. Bush here, despite Mr. Bush's earlier victory in Iowa. Eight years later, Mr. Bush, then vice president, won New Hampshire's Republican primary even though he had suffered a double-digit defeat at the hands of Sen. Bob Dole in Iowa.

In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts surged in New Hampshire after his unexpected Iowa win. But that surge followed the implosion of Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's campaign.

"Historically, there's not that much of a bounce between Iowa and New Hampshire," said Andrew E. Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire at Durham. "There's some, but not much."

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rest of this very interesting article here:

http://post-gazette.com/pg/08004/846657-176.stm