Democratic Underground - Intrade correctly forecast all 50 states in 2004 prez elections. See their final NH predictions

Intrade correctly forecast all 50 states in 2004 prez elections. See their final NH predictions [View All]

antiimperialist

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Mon Jan-07-08 11:42 PM
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Intrade correctly forecast all 50 states in 2004 prez elections. See their final NH predictions

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The NY Times called Intrade "remarkably clairvoyant."

Excerpt from this 2007 NY Times article:

It has also been remarkably clairvoyant. Heading into the 2004 presidential election, Intrade�s odds correctly forecast the outcome in all 50 states. The 2008 election is far enough in the future that the current odds probably aren�t as telling. But they are still worth considering, especially because early odds have had a better forecasting record than early polls in recent years, says Mr. Wolfers, who spends much of his time studying prediction markets.

Now, I give you Intrade's final NH predictions:

Obama: 92
Clinton: 5
Edwards: 2

On the Republican side:
McCain: 76
Romney: 20
Huckabee: 1

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=483463

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Intrade correctly forecast all 50 states in 2004 prez elections. See their final NH predictions [View All]