Democratic Underground - Where the 2004 candidate bases ended up in the 2008 New Hampshire Primary

Where the 2004 candidate bases ended up in the 2008 New Hampshire Primary [View All]

Adelante

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Fri Jan-11-08 05:43 PM
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Where the 2004 candidate bases ended up in the 2008 New Hampshire Primary

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First, I don't know much about this process of analysis and don't know if it is reliable or not. But it sure is fascinating. It shows where the 2008 votes came from in relation to 2004 voters.

Caution: Those numerals are not percentages.

This regression produces a number of coefficients that represent how much support was transferred from one candidate to another. For example, if the coefficient between John Kerry and Hillary Clinton is .73, that means that for every percentage point that Kerry had in a district in 2004, Hillary tended to pick up .73 percentage points in 2008. (…)

Clinton
.73 Kerry
.66 Lieberman
.18 Clark
.12 Edwards '04
-.05 Dean

Obama
.93 Dean
.45 Clark
.38 Edwards '04
.15 Lieberman
.09 Kerry

Edwards (2008)
.37 Edwards '04
.37 Clark
.24 Kerry
.15 Lieberman
.00 Dean

I encourage you to read the entire thing.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/11/12619/4641/427/434859

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Where the 2004 candidate bases ended up in the 2008 New Hampshire Primary [View All]