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The New DU. Reply #15: Polls for caucusing
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grantcart
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Thu Jan-17-08 05:13 PM
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are usually not accurate for obvious reasons. In this case they will be especially unreliable because the modelling they use by definition will be completely arbitrary. Unlike Iowa where the Des Moine Journal has a long experience with caucusing Nevada only had 25,000 at its last caucus. This time its expected to be several times that. Also unlike population stable Iowa, Nevada's demographic keeps undergoing dramatic changes every year.
In this case where the percent of first time caucus goers will be statistically extremely high we should expect that the polls for Nevada to be the least reliable of any state in the primary season.
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