Reply #7: Not surging at all: [View All]

In national Rasmussen Polls, Edwards has had two stright polls in which he is falling back:

Kerry 47% Edwards 31%

Kerry Steady, Edwards Down a Point

National Democrats

Kerry 47%
Edwards 31%
Sharpton 7%
Kucinich 3%
Not Sure 12%
RasmussenReports.com

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March 1, 2004--As Super Tuesday approaches, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leads North Carolina Senator John Edwards by 16 percentage points among Democrats nationally. The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows Kerry with 47% support compared to 31% for Edwards.
Kerry is down seven points from his peak of 54% earlier in the week. Support for Edwards fell a point today and is now down three from earlier in the week. As a result, Kerry is well positioned to effectively wrap up the nomination tomorrow.

Polls from the Super Tuesday states strongly favor Kerry, who holds big leads just about everywhere. Kerry could sweep them all. Even if Edwards wins a single state somewhere, it is hard to see a path for him to win the nomination. However, if the Democrats do not win back the White House this year, Edwards has certainly positioned himself as a top-tier candidate for 2008.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Democrats_Ballot_Preference_2004.htm

And latest reports from Saturday and Sunday have him Kerry beating him rather soundly in Georgia:

Zogby Tracking (3/1) 45.6% 27.4% 18.0%

ARG (2/27-2/28) 48% 38% 7%

Columbia Dispatch Latest Poll has Edwards dropping back:


Poll: Kerry has big lead heading into Tuesday's primary

Associated Press


COLUMBUS, Ohio - Sen. John Kerry had a more than 2-1 lead in Ohio over Sen. John Edwards going into the state's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday, according to a poll by The Columbus Dispatch.

The Massachusetts senator was at 59 percent to 28 percent for Edwards, according to the poll's results, which were published Sunday. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland was third with 5 percent.

The mail survey of 3,793 Ohio Democrats, conducted Feb. 19 through Friday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The response rate was 31 percent.

For the poll, the newspaper obtained a list of registered voters from the secretary of state and used a computer to randomly choose who would receive surveys. Those who had not voted since 1999 were eliminated.


http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/8068486.htm

New York Kerry has enormormous lead on Edwards

Kerry has increased his lead over Edwards in Maryland over the weekend:

Kerry Widens Lead in Maryland

John Kerry has widened his lead over John Edwards among likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland according to a survey by the American Research Group. Kerry leads Edwards 46% to 34%, with 11% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided. Ballot preference for Edwards is unchanged from a survey completed February 25.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered Democrats in Maryland saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary on March 2, 2004. The interviews were conducted February 27 and 28, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/md/

Surging means going forward. re;ative to your competition. Many leate polls show Edwards fallling behind Kerry, in the states that he has camapaigned the hardest in.