Reply #42: Again, not so: [View All]

In polls that are set up to reflect the General election, not the primaries, Kerry is preferred by a majority of registered voters, not registered democratic voters, as beating Bush by a sigificant margin, while Edwards is in a dea heat campaign with Bush. Even the results from Wiconsin show Kerry actually picking up more independents that Edwards, while Edwards picked up a large number of Repubicans.

There are frequent statements made that Edwards somehow appeals more to independents, but the results of the primaries and caucuses do not reflect that.

Edwards does well with moderate Republicans, primarily becaue he voting record is the most conservative of any of the ninecandidates who ran for nomination:

In fact, though, the liberal rating group, Americans for Democratic Action (ADA), in its most recent assessment, scored Kennedy 100 percent compared to Kerry's 85 percent. On one key issue, the two senators parted company --- on the resolution backing the use of military force in Iraq. Kennedy opposed it; Kerry supported it.
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, one of the more moderate Democrats in the Senate and in the presidential race, got the same score, 85 percent, while Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina voted liberal 70 percent of the time, according to the ADA.


http://www.ajc.com/monday/content/epaper/editions/monday/news_04412c67966ea1ea00cb.html

If you look at the latest polls taken as to who the polled individuals will vote for in 2004, the results are:

CBS News Poll. Feb. 24-27, 2004. N=1,294 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all registered voters).

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, do you think you would probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

George Bush or John Kerry


George Bush 46 %

John Kerry 47 %

George Bush or John Edwards

George Bush 45 %

John Edwards 45 %


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

While Edwards has done well with independent voters, he has not done better than Kerry in polls in which independent voters are polled. Kerry does far better against Bush in attracting independent voters than in a presumed race where Edwards is the candidate against Bush. In fact when Bush and Edwards are run togetther, the polls for the General election suggest a larger number of people selecting other candidate than if the general election is Bush against Kerry.

This is where national polls shine, in that they poll the entire population of regstered voters, not just people who intend to vote democrat (most of the primary polls are not polls or registered democrats, but of democrats and independents who have stated they intend to vote dem when asked by the polling agency)