Reply #71: I think HRC is a much tougher opponent than McCain, so Obama should do well in GE [View All]

McCain might have the same consultant-driven kitchen sink as HRC, but he isn't personally much of a strategist and his team isn't all that clever. He sort of backed into the nomination as all the other Republican contenders self-combusted. McCain is not 1/10th the debater that HRC is - he doesn't seem to understand the issues himself and he doesn't think on his feet that well, and he can't even book up that well. He can't deliver a canned line effectively. He probably can't keep up as hectic a schedule. He has a lot of gaffes. He has all sorts of questionable things from his personal life and lobbyists etc. He's tied to Bush. His main positive attributes are: war hero, has occasionally bucked his party line (to his credit) and has a little more convincing old boy thing going.

McCain is on paper a very weak candidate - compare to Bush Jr., Dole, Bush Jr., Reagan, Ford, Nixon, Goldwater, Nixon, Eisenhower. He basically seems weaker than the ones who have won.

Obama has some strengths (charisma, ran a damn good campaign), some weaknesses (experience, effects of racism). Compare him to:
Kerry, Gore, Clinton, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter, McGovern, Humphrey, Johnson, Kennedy. He basically seems stronger than those who have not won.

It's hard to say exactly how it will play out, but we could be pleasantly surprised by the dynamics.