2. As a californian I can tell you he would have won 1 week later
The only thing that kept her in the win column was mail in voting which was done the 8 weeks from late november to mid january, that were almost automatic votes for her on name recognition alone.
By mid January his brand was taking off in california and the public record and opinion and polls all had him winning, but thats why they were wrong.
They were a true measure of the day of the primary but not a measure of when almost 50% of the vote had taken place the previous 8 weeks.
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