Reply #36: Virginia requires almost a 10 point swing [View All]

Not an probable result.

Same with Florida- though there the swing would probably have to be closer to 15% to overcome voting fraud.

Colorado with a about a 4 1/2 poit swing is a more likely pickup- but by the same token, the Dems could easily lose Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania. And/or New Hamsphire.

New Mexico may go blue- but as it stands, Nevada probably remains red.

Overall, "maverick" labeled McCain has a better chance at picking up blue states, and holding onto what they had in 2004.

Also, it's useful to remember voters behave differently in presidential politics than on the state and local level. Some states that have elected plenty of Dems in their legislatures, or as governors or even Senators -tend not to vote that way (and haven't for many years) when it comes down to the presidency.

As I said, it'll be close- with a polarized electorate, though looking at the maps and playing with the numbers, I can't help but conclude (even with all that;s happened) that the advantage lies with the Republicans. Not a pleasant thought- but a realistic one.