Reply #18: It depends on the Edwards pledged delegates [View All]

The post Edwards Numbers
1) Pledged delegates

Edwards has 19 Delegates in Iowa/NH/SC let's assume Obama gets 15 of those (all of Iowa and SC but not NH)

Obama's pledged majority magic number 25


Delegates at stake in Kentucky 60 and Oregon 65.

Let's assume that the pledged numbers announce before 5/20

Obama would get the pledged majority in Kentucky - not Oregon

Let's assume that he gets 60 of the 125 delegates up that night



Obama's magic number for majority of the delegates is 133.5



Edwards 15
KY/OR 60

Total 75

He only needs 58 Super Delegates to get the nomination

There are probably 30 delegates that will go immediately for the pledged majority winner

So Obama needs about 30 Super Delegates to clinch the nomination

There are 8 add on Super Delegates to be added this weekend

Colorado 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention
Kansas 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention
Nevada 1 5/17/2008 Selected by the state convention as a whole
California 5 5/18/2008 Selected during the Delegation Meeting

Obama needs about 6 Super Delegates a day and all of the other listed above to seal it on Tuesday.