Reply #36: It will all depend on what Obama thinks he needs to do to win. [View All]

Webb and Clark would both be fantastic if Obama believes he can compete in some Southern states. But the South will be hard for a Democrat to win. Obama has swept the Southern Democratic voters, but that still doesn't mean he will be popular with the general electorate. The question will be whether he and a running mate like Webb can draw enough Southern moderates to the ticket. Webb can be popular in the South, but still not give the ticket enough votes to win in a region where we always lose.

This will be a different election. Bush is unpopular, and it's made his party unpopular, and many of the Republican promises that were appealing in the South have been exposed as insincere, or flawed. Katrina, Iraq, lost jobs, high prices, and everything else has hit the South hard, since the military has always been strong in the South. Many Republican voters will be open to at least listening to the Democrats this time.

But, if Obama's polls and analysis shows that the South would be a tough win still, then Webb as VP might be a missed opportunity. Obama could pick up someone to strengthen him in other regions--like Ohio or Florida (it's southern, but you know what I mean). Not that Webb would be bad in those regions, just that someone else might have stronger appeal, and that might help Obama more. Clark has a national image, so he isn't as regionally identified, while still being strong in the South.

So the choice will reveal Obama's strategy. A Southerner means he thinks he can compete in the moderate to conservative South, and his campaign will become more moderate. Someone from a different region means he's aiming at strengthening that region, and maybe he feels weak there but still believes he can, or has to, win.

A strong national candidate like Clark, Richardson (my choice, btw), or Clinton (I would be surprised, but she's on the long list) means one of two things. Either Obama feels he needs experience to make him more appealing across the board, or Obama feels he can win anywhere. Clark has the unique mixture of national and regional appeal.

Just my thoughts. All these Reagan people on a Democratic ticket make me nervous, though.