Alright, Obama supporters, I admit I was wrong [View All]

I said that we should stop worrying about Hillary Clinton and what she says and does, but her conference call with bloggers last night made me realize how wrong I was. I still think we should stop needlessly trashing her, but we also need to stay vigilant. I wrote in a new Kos diary about what I think her objectives are at this point: the stealth campaign for 2012. Please rec it there and here and help call attention to this.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/17/201822/559/46/517625

I have a confession to make. I've gotten complacent. For the past week and a half, I have not made many phone calls, and I laughed off Obama's 41-point loss in West Virginia. I have been telling Obama supporters in the blogosphere to lay off of Clinton, figuring she was just staying in until Tuesday or until the end of the primaries and then would bow out gracefully. I did not think we needed to worry much about what she says or does anymore.

Last night, I got a wake-up call. I listened to the audio of her conference call with bloggers, which a DUer was kind enough to partially transcribe, and I realized that while she may bow out on June 4 and endorse Obama and encourage her supporters to vote for him, there's more to her strategy than meets the eye. I don't think she is planning to take this to the Convention, and she could be angling for the VP slot. But there's a far more troubling possibility here. From the sound of what she encouraged her bloggers to push last night, it sounds like she is trying to delegitimize him or cloud his legitimacy when he eventually clinches the nomination, as part of a stealth campaign for 2012.

democrattotheend's diary :: ::
On the call last night, she reiterated her claim that she is ahead in the popular vote, which is only true if you give her her votes from Michigan but give Obama 0 AND don't count the four caucus states that don't release vote totals. This would mean ignoring 4 states when she claims it would be a travesty to ignore 2. In addition, she encouraged bloggers to push the idea that caucuses are undemocratic, and she continues to talk about Michigan and Florida, both on the conference call and in her public appearances.

She said that if Michigan and Florida are not seated, "it will undermine the legitimacy of our nominee". She knows that Michigan and Florida will not put her ahead in the delegate count, and that the only chance of them helping her with the popular vote is if the will of Michigan voters is misconstrued by giving Obama no votes despite thousands of people there who wanted to vote for him. But by continuing to harp on Michigan and Florida, she can continue to, as she said, undermine the legitimacy of our nominee.

Her continued focus on Michigan and Florida, as well as her complaints about caucuses being undemocratic and her very dubious claim that she leads in the popular vote are troubling because they seem designed to create doubt that Obama has earned the nomination fair and square. She knows that if she tried to go to the convention, the superdelegates would come out for Obama to give him the majority, and she would look like a saboteur dragging it out in hopes that they change their mind. But by confusing the facts and casting doubt on his legitimacy, she can encourage resentment among her supporters that will persist even if she drops out after June 4 and endorses Obama. If they feel that she was pushed out illegitimately, at least some of her supporters may decide to sit it out or vote for McCain in hopes of giving her another chance in 2012.

In addition to creating questions about Obama's legitimacy as the nominee, she played the gender card yet again last night. She said that she "deeply regrets the vitriol and the mean-spiritedness and the terrible insults and rhetoric that has been thrown around at you for supporting me, at women in general, at many of those who support my campaign because of who they are and their stand based on principle." This is not the first time she has claimed that she is being treated differently because of her gender, and it appears to encourage women who feel she has been mistreated because she is a woman to keep feeling that way.

This, like the talking points designed to cloud Obama's legitimacy in terms of the math, could be part of a strategy to fan the flames of resentment among her supporters, particularly women. Yes, she may bow out gracefully after the primaries are over, but she wants to make sure her supporters are as disappointed and even angry when she does. She appears to want them to feel that she was wronged, making it harder for them to turn around and support Obama. She'll bow out eventually and give a speech that will probably tug at people's heartstrings and make them wistful, with some people perhaps hoping that she gets another chance in 4 years.

This may sound paranoid, but there are several factors that could exacerbate the temptation among her supporters to wait it out. McCain is 71 and may only serve 1 term, and unfortunately, many people still perceive him as moderate enough to tolerate for four years. The fact that the Democrats are likely to retain the majorities in Congress could make this worse, as people may feel more complacent about McCain being president because they think he'll be limited in what he can do by a Democratic Congress.

So if there really is a stealth campaign for 2012 going on already, what can we do about it? The answer is not to continue to spew hatred towards her here or anywhere else in the blogosphere, as we have unfortunately done too much of this season, helping to create this situation where many Clinton activists have hardened toward Obama. Please refrain from saying anything that could possibly be construed as sexist, as this will only exacerbate the problem. Instead, focus your energy on helping Obama run up the popular vote total, and stay vigilant. I have described a few steps for action below:

First, keep making calls to Kentucky and Oregon, especially Oregon. Clinton seems to be gaining in the polls there, and it's possible that Obama's supporters may be more complacent about returning their ballots because they think it's over. It's too late to mail the ballots and ensure that they will arrive in time, but the campaign is offering to pick up people's ballots and deliver them. We need to make phone calls to let people know that. It's important for Obama to run up as big of a popular vote margin there as possible to take away any claim she might have to it.

Second, we need to hold Clinton's feet to the fire. She will most likely do more town halls between now and June 4. She claims she is not afraid of tough questions, so people who live in Montana and South Dakota should go and ask her some. Don't go as Obama supporters...go as voters. Ask her why she claims it would be a travesty if Michigan and Florida were excluded but thinks it's okay to exclude the caucus results from Iowa, Maine, Nebraska and Washington in her popular vote count. Ask her why she praised caucuses and called them a "wonderful tradition" before Iowa, and now claims they are undemocratic. Most importantly, ask her if she plans to run in 2012 if she does not get the nomination this year, and whether she will rule out running against a sitting Democratic president. She will probably waffle and evade the question, but by at least asking the question, we can put it out there and hopefully get the media to question whether she is running for 2012 right now. If you see any news organizations planning to interview her and soliciting ideas for questions, post the question about 2012 on their blogs as well.

Finally, we need to write to news organizations and blogs and refute this baloney about her being ahead in the popular vote. If she creates the impression that she is ahead in the popular vote, no matter how selective and misleading her metrics are, it will really damage Obama's legitimacy, especially among Democrats who remain bitter about Florida 2000. And we can help to debunk her caucus argument by pointing out that she called them a "wonderful tradition" on her website, and now claims they are undemocratic. Point out that many of the caucus states have laws that require employers to give time off to vote if voting is not available outside of their work hours, and that her campaign failed to inform people that they had the right to this time off. Encourage news organizations to stop reporting her ridiculous spin about caucuses, the popular vote, and Michigan and Florida that are clearly designed to delegitimize Obama as the nominee.