Reply #3: Post #1 from ABCNEWS [View All]

As you may recall, the official Associated Press number (as well as the official ABC News number) is not an accurate representation of the true turnout of voters. However, it is the number provided by states and the Democratic party.

Clinton is trying to make the argument that she is preferred by more voters in this process. Unless she thinks that only 1,677 voters turned out to vote in the January 3 Iowa caucuses -- instead of the 236,000 voters the Democratic party says actually came out to participate -- she cannot rely on the official AP count. The official numbers from caucus states tend to woefully undercount voter turnout for one simple reason -- this is not a race for votes, it is a race for delegates.

So ABC News' Polling Director Gary Langer and his team have embarked upon a purely academic exercise to try to assess a number closer to the actual popular vote number. And they've updated it today, post-Kentucky and post-Oregon. (With 88% of the Oregon vote in.)

It gets tricky of course because of the Michigan and Florida contests, which the DNC does not recognize and where neither candidate campaigned. Should Clinton's popular vote victory in Michigan count? Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot, and Clinton at the time said "It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything."

In any case, here are the latest "Gary Langer Popular Vote Numbers."

Total popular vote without Florida and Michigan -- Obama is up 570,785 popular votes. (Obama 17,571,847; Clinton 17,001,062.)

Total popular vote with Florida, but without Michigan -- Obama is up 276,013 popular votes. (Obama 18,148,061; Clinton 17,872,048.)

Total popular vote with both Florida and Michigan -- Clinton is up 52,296 popular votes. (Obama 18,148,061; Clinton 18,200,357.)

Again -- this only has meaning symbolically, or philosophically.

It's a race for delegates.

If Clinton gets the nomination and then goes on to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, there won't be any super-electors to appeal to. You run the race according to the rules. And according to the rules, Obama leads in delegates overall, pledged delegates, superdelegates, and the popular vote. Neither candidate has yet secured the proper number of delegates to win the nomination.