Reply #23: I agree in part. [View All]

Your reasoning does help corroborate Senator Clinton's claim that, in saying what she did, she was simply pointing out that primary campaigns have frequently lasted into June. (Let's put aside for a moment that her claim is disingenuous as a historical matter.) As you say, if Clinton were really counting on some kind of calamity befalling the Obama campaign, then it would not make sense for her to remain in the race, because she could easily drop out and still jump back in to exploit that calamity if it occurred. It follows, I agree, that Senator Clinton is probably not staying in the race solely out of the expectation (or hope) that such a calamity will occur. There must be something else at work.

But that, I suspect, is where your thinking and my thinking diverge. If Senator Clinton is not staying in the race because "anything can happen," then why is she staying in the race? The alternative interpretation of her words is that she is staying in the race because history shows that primary contests have frequently lasted into June. But that is simply a historical fact; it is not a *reason* for staying in the race. (And it's not even a historical fact; the fact is that the primary calendar was much different in 1968 and 1992, so her reliance on that history is disingenuous at best. But again, let's put that aside for the moment.)

It also cannot be the case that she wants to stay in the race to make sure that "everyone gets to vote." Everyone is going to get to vote regardless of whether she drops out. She could easily suspend her campaign while urging her supporters to vote for her in the remaining contests. Moreover, she herself said in November that the contest was going to be over in February, so she has never really been interested in giving everyone a genuine opportunity to cast a vote in the primary process.

Finally, it cannot be the case that she is staying in the race because she hopes to sway remaining superdelegates with continued campaigning in the hopes of scoring an upset victory. The math makes it virtually impossible for her to win unless some kind of calamity befalls the Obama campaign. And as we have seen above, she could suspend her campaign and still exploit that calamity if it happened.

The only reason I can think of for Clinton to remain in the race is pure self-interest. She wants to bloody Obama up for the general election so that Senator McCain wins and she can run against the Republican nominee (presumably McCain won't seek reelection) in 2012. I know, it seems too machiavellian to believe, and maybe I'm just being uncharitable to her. But that's the only reason I can think of for her to stay in the race that still makes any sense.