Reply #8: Key precincts [View All]

The basis of exit polling is taking the polls in "key precincts".

I believe this means that the popluation sample in a "key precinct" is very stable and does not have excesses of incidentals or variations as a poster cited above.

Here is the point: exit polling has worked, and quite well, generally, before this election.

In Florida 2000, exit polling said Gore won there. But he didn't and that trashed exit polling that election.

But you see, as an example, some 1100 people in that county with the infamous butterfly ballot voted for Buchanan when they thought they voted for Gore. But when polled on exit, if they were polled, they would have said that they voted for Gore. Gore did not get those votes.

Who knows what else happened in other counties that year?

The election in 2004 attempted exit polling again and once more, exit polling ran into a perfect storm where none of their results from key precincts were matching with machine tallies.

So, we trash exit polling again, right? It couldn't be the machine tallies, right?

Right!!!!!