Reply #6: I calculated the odds that AT LEAST 16 states... [View All]

would exceed the MOE in the final Bush tallies. Thanks, and I just fixed the wording.

Check the Excel functions: BINOMDIST and NORMDIST.
They both have TRUE and FALSE parameters.

I used the TRUE parameter in the Excel Binomial distribution function. This triggers the calculation of the CUMULATIVE probability that AT LEAST 16 states would exceed the Exit Poll MOE in favor of Bush. This is exactly what occurred. Not one exceeded the MOE for Kerry.

The FALSE parameter is used to calculate the probability THAT EXACTLY 16 states would exceed the MOE. That is not what we want.

I used NORMDIST to calculate the probability in each state that Bush would exceed the MOE.

I calculated the MOE based on the exit polling sample size.
Then I calculated the corresponding standard deviation for input to NORMDIST: StDev = MOE/1.96