Reply #36: Your Analysis [View All]

gives only the mathematical part of the picture. The margin of error applies only if what you're sampling is the actual data, which in this case would be the actual ballots.

It may not enter into purely mathematical modeling, but social scientists like pollsters and psychometricians know this. Once you stop people and ask their responses, you get a whole new set of sampling and response variables.

I don't know how accurate the exit polls were. The recount in New Hampshire examined wards in which the official vote deviated quite a bit from the polls. Presumably those were not the only places there was a difference.

A better way of isolating fraud might be to look at precincts which had especially high deviations. Which would only be possible if Mitofsky released the details.