Reply #12: Gulogulo -- I looked at the WaPo article before and I see the same [View All]

flaw I see now:

The likelihood that one poll (the national result) would be wrong is lower than the probability that the exit polls of 10 out of 11 swing states would be wrong and wrong all in the same direction!

What is the probability that if you flip a fair coin 10 times you will get heads each time? Very, very, very low. The WaPo article looks only that the national poll -- that is one poll.

What I want an enterprising conservative lad/lassie to do is to go dig up the state-by-state exit polls from the last 4-6 presidential elections and show us how many states are outside the MOE in each direction, how many states are inside the MOE in each direction.

If, in the past 4-6 elections (before the Republicans started wisely investing in voting machine companies), there is an equally biased pattern of state exit poll and vote tabulation discrepancies then I'll be ready to get rid of exit polling too!

:bounce: