The SCOOP/Simon exit poll breakthrough - more true than ever. [View All]

It's good to look back on this story in light of the
subsequent analysis I and others have done. I am printing the
SCOOP/Simon story in full and have taken the liberty of
highlighting what I believe to be the most important
information in caps.

Here is the full Scoop/Simon exit poll story. I used the data
in my subsequent probability analysis, with a minor adjustment
made to normalize by ignoring third party's. Thus the state
totals for Bush and Kerry would equal 100%. I did this in
order to utilize the poll numbers in the Election Model, which
was two-party based.
 
The Simon data was a breakthrough and I wanted to use it fully
to calculate the probability of these exit poll/vote tally
discrepancies, and do it by taking all the states into
account. 

The four basic steps were:

1. Calculate the MOE for each state based on the polling
sample size. This was easily accomplished. 
The MOE = 1/sqrt(N), where N is the polling sample size. 
In Florida, with 2846 polled, the MOE = 1/sqrt(2846) = 1.84%.

2. Compare the MOE in each state to the Bush vote tallies to
determine in how many states the tallies exceeded the MOE. 
The vote tallies exceeded the MOE in 16 out of 51 states
(incl. DC). 

3. Specify the probability of exceeding the MOE in each state.

Using the standard 95% confidence interval, the probability is
2.5% (1 out of 40) that the MOE in any state would be exceeded
for Bush. 

4. Calculate odds that Bush's vote tallies would exceed the
MOE in AT LEAST 16 states.

This requires the EXCEL BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION.
The Probability P = 1- NORMDIST (15,51,.025, TRUE) =
7.382983E-14

The odds of this result occurring due to CHANCE alone is 1/P
or 
             **** ONE in 13.5 TRILLION ****

One final piece of information, especially for those who say
that the exit polls were incomplete and therefore the
probability analysis given above is not valid. 

At 8PM on election day, journalists were aware that Kerry was
leading in the Exit Polls by 3% (51-48). The polling was 63%
COMPLETE at the time with 71,000 of the final 113,000 total. 

To reverse Kerry's 51-48 margin to a Bush 51-48 margin, Bush
needed to win 56.0% of the remaining 42,000 yet to be polled.
He would have had to essentially reverse Kerry's 3% margin to
a Bush 12% margin of 56-44. That's a 15% last minute swing. 

No one is that lucky.
****************************************************************

Now the SCOOP breakthrough, with my summaries in caps:
http://0-www.scoop.co.nz.opac.library.usyd.edu.au/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly

By Jonathan Simon 
Introduction by Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson

By the time of the close of polls at around 5pm EST on
election day the buzz on the world wide web – including here
at Scoop - was that Kerry had was a shoe in for election 2004.
Slate Magazine and the Daily Kos had published the swing state
exit polls before the polls had even closed. The news was very
good for Kerry supporters. 

THE EXIT POLLS HAD KERRY LEADING BUSH IN FL AND OH
***************************************************************
According to the exit polls Kerry was showing a 1% popular
vote margin over Bush. But more importantly he was shown
leading by a nose in Florida and a solid 4% in Ohio. Because
of the way the Electoral College system works this meant that
he had almost certainly won. 

THE POLLS HAD SIGNIFICANT-SIZED SAMPLES IN ALL STATES
*******************************************************
The polls have significant sized samples in all states and ask
actual voters who they actually voted for and so are
traditionally very accurate. 

As we now know they weren't very accurate once midnight came
and went. 

Or were they? 
On November 4 (NZT – Nov. 3 EST) Scoop published Faun Otter:
Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals. This was the first exit
poll comparison analysis produced on the web it originated in
the Democratic Underground, a forum website, for Democratic
Party activism and the clubhouse for a lot of people doing
grassroots research work. 

Faun Otter's data - already immortalised in the Wikipedia
(with a link to Scoop.co.nz) - showed swing states moving far
further on average from their exit poll results than non-swing
states after the polls closed. I.E. the actual result for
these states was more at variance with the exit polls than it
was in other states. 
Alarm bells rang at this point because it has always been
postulated that looking at exit poll results after a stolen
election would be the best way to look for "general"
evidence of voting fraud. By general evidence I mean evidence
that suggests fraud has occurred – not proof that it has. 

TRADITIONALLY, EXIT POLLS HAVE BEEN ACCURATE TO ABOUT 2%
***************************************************************
The reason this is so is that traditionally exit polls have
been close to 2% accurate. Yet in the last three elections,
2000, 2002 and 2004 they haven't been. This years poll
remarkably is almost precisely a re-run of 2000 with Ohio
playing the part of Florida. In Florida in 2000 the exit polls
showed Gore winning by 3%. In the middle of the night they
were still counting and on this state alone hinged the entire
election. 

In 2004 just like in 2000 Fox news called Ohio to Bush before
the counting had finished. 


Because exit polls are such a good research tool for vote
fraud analysis an organisation called PollWatch.org was even
set up to conduct independent exit polls. By election time
their efforts had been subsumed into the efforts of
VerifiedVoting.org, a lobby organisation initiated by Stanford
University Professor David Dill which signed up thousands of
computer scientists and academics to a petition calling for
auditable voting machines. 

However the activists were caught off guard on election night.


CNBC, FOX AND CNN WERE CONSTANTLY UPDATING THEIR EXIT POLL
DATABASES TO FIT THE FINAL RESULTS
*******************************************************************
The Official Exit Poll results – posted in real time on public
websites - have some significant drawbacks. Unbeknownst to
their readers CNBC, Fox News and CNN were constantly updating
their exit poll databases to fit the final results. That is
the statistics were fluid and were updated several times
through the evening. By 2am in the morning on Nov 3, If you
looked at the exit polls and the final results you would find
the matched. For Ohio, for Florida, for everywhere. No story
there people. Move on. 

THE WP REPORTED A EDISON/MITOFSKY SERVER "GLITCH"
BARELY MINUTES BEFORE THE CONSORTIUM WAS TO UPDATE ITS EXIT
POLLING RESULTS.
JOURNALISTS WERE LEFT WITH PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL RESULTS AT
8:15 PM, WHICH STILL SHOWED KERRY AHEAD BY 3%.
*****************************************************************
But as often seems to happen in these tortured times,
something unexpected happened and so we can now tell you
something close to the full story.' 

The Washington post takes up the story: 

Washington Post 11/4/2004: 
"... a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly
before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll
results until technicians got a backup system operational at
1:33 a.m. yesterday. 
The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to
update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing
that found Bush with a one-point lead. Instead, journalists
were left relying on preliminary exit poll results released at
8:15 p.m., which still showed Kerry ahead by three percentage
points. 

It was only after the polls had closed in most states and the
vote count was well underway in the East that it became clear
that Bush was in a stronger position in several key
battlegrounds, including Ohio, than early exit polls
suggested."

By 2am on Nov. 3 in the morning the publicly available exit
poll results on the network news sites all changed. Activists
still had the original results posted in blogs but they were
no real comparison. 

Which is why the following data study by Jonathan Simon of
verifiedvoting.org is so remarkable. 

AROUND 12:20 AM, SIMON DOWNLOADED AS MUCH DATA AS HE COULD OFF
PUBLICLY AVAILABLE SITES 
********************************************************************
As it turns out this study was only possible because of the
computer crash reported by the Washington Post. While the
boffins fiddled with their computers Simon – with a
considerable degree of foresight - downloaded as much data as
he could off the publicly available sites. 

The revision number of this data is not known and the original
data – from Edison - is now being sought by Scoop.co.nz in
order to repeat this study with the full 4pm and 8pm data
runs. 

I conclude this introduction with some remarks from Chuck, who
was commenting on Simon's results. 

MITOFSKY SAID HE KNEW THAT THE EXIT POLLS WERE OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON IN NINE STATES. WHY WOULD HE NOT ISSUE A CAVEAT?
**************************************************************
"Warren Mitofsky meanwhile says that he knew in the
afternoon that his exit polls were off in nine states, but
this does not sit well with me (I'd need to know how he would
know at that point and, assuming he knew, why he would go
ahead and promulgate them without caveat?). 

Way too much work went into getting the exit polls right this
time for me to just accept that they can't do as well as they
were doing routinely in the 80s and 90s. It is not, like
stained glass, a lost art."

Way too much indeed. 
- Alastair Thompson Scoop Co Editor Thursday, 11 November 2004

*** ##### ****

To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding
Bush's "Victory":

By Jonathan Simon
Thursday, 11 November 2004

I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote
tabulations as reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll
results in 47 states, incl. D.C. (in 4 states—New Jersey, New
York, North Carolina,Virginia—I did not have early exit poll
results available, and the later results had already been
amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which rendered
them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of
checking the veracity of actual vote totals). 

AN OVERALL, NON-UNIFORM RED SHIFT TO BUSH. 
IN THE SAFE (35) STATES, THERE WAS A +1.4% SHIFT
*************************************************************
I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum
of states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform. 
Having divided the 47 states examined into two groups, 35
noncritical states and 12 critical or suspect states (Nebraska
included because of ES&S control and prior anomalies even
though not a battleground state). 

I calculated that the average discrepancy in the 35 safe
states was a +1.4% red shift, that is the average of the vote
totals in each state was 1.4% more favorable to Bush than what
the exit polls predicted (= total movement of 2.8%). 

IN THE CRITICAL (12) STATES, THERE WAS A 2.5% SHIFT
*****************************************************************
In the 12 critical states
(CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy
was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice
that in the safe states. This in spite of the fact that the
average sample size in the critical states was nearly twice
that in the noncritical states and should have produced
significantly more accurate results. 

ASSUMING A 3% MOE AND 95% CONFIDENCE INTERNAL, THE RED SHIFT
EXCEEDED THE MARGIN OF ERROR IN 4 OF 12 CRITICAL STATES
*****************************************************************
Further, assuming a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence
interval for each state poll (the standard Mitofksy protocol,
but a conservative assumption here, since the sample sizes
were significantly increased in critical states), the red
shift exceeded the margin of error in 4 of the 12 critical
states (and equalled it in a fifth). 

The chance of this occurring in 4 of the 12 states in the
absence of "mistabulation" can be computed using a
simple probability equation and is approximately 0.002 or one
in five-hundred. It's a relatively crude analysis and better
analysis would have to wait on more complete data, but
basically what it's telling us is that we can say with 99.8%
certainty that "mistabulation" played some
significant role in this election. 
Critical States (12)
********************************************************************

DATA DESCRIPTION
Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time
of poll ET, and "Red" Shift%

Note: Red Shift = <(Btab% - Bep%) + (Kep% - Ktab)>/2
tab= tabulated vote, ep=exit poll 

The number is positive with net movement toward Bush, negative
(blue shift) with net movement toward Kerry. I'll take Florida
(early) as an example: 

Exit Poll % : B=49.8% K=49.7%
Tab (99% precincts) B=52% K=47%
Red Shift: <(52% - 49.8%) + (49.7% - 47%)>/2 = (2.2% +
2.7%)/2 = +2.5%

I'm aware that I've played fast and loose with significant
figures; a more refined analysis would get at least one more
sig fig out of the tabulated. 

Critical States (12)
FINDING: 12 (Critical) State Average Red Shift +2.5% 
State	BUSH	KERRY	#Resp	Time	Red Shift
Colorado	49.9	48.1	2515	12:24AM	2.60%
Florida	49.8	49.7	2846	12:21	2.5
*Florida	51.4	47.6	2862	1:01	0.6
Michigan	46.5	51.5	2452	12:21	1
Minnesota	44.5	53.5	2178	12:23	3
Nebraska	62.5	36	785	12:22	4.3
Nevada	47.9	49.2	2116	12:23	2.2
New Hamp.	44.1	54.9	1849	12:24	4.9
New Mex.	47.5	50.1	1951	12:24	1.9
Ohio	47.9	52.1	1963	7:32PM	3.1
*Ohio	50.9	48.6	2020	1:41AM	0.3
Penn	45.4	54.1	1930	12:21	3.4
Wisconsin	48.8	49.2	2223	12:21	(-)0.3
Iowa	48.4	49.7	2502	12:23	2
(Nebraska included because "critical" because of
ES&S dominance and history)

Important Note: Because of rolling updates, some states may
have been relatively pure by the time this data was collected.
at 12:20-12:25, while others may already have been slightly
corrupted. My guess is that most of these states were still OK
at these times. 

*NOTE SCOOP IS SEEKING A COPY OF THE ORIGINAL DATA FROM 4PM
AND 8PM ON ELECTION NIGHT – WATCH THIS SPACE* 
**************************************************************
Non-Critical States (35)
Again data order is Exit Poll Data, Bush% then Kerry%, # of
respondents, then time of poll ET, and "Red" Shift% 
FINDING: 35 (NonCritical) State Average Red Shift +1.4 
State	BUSH	KERRY	#Resp	Time	Red Shift
Alabama	58.1	40.5	730	12:17AM	4.2
Alaska	57.8	38.8	910	01:00AM	4
Arizona	52.8	46.7	1859	12:19	2.5
Arkansas	52.9	46.1	1402	12:22	1.1
Calif	46.6	54.6	1919	12:23	(-)1.5
CT	40.9	57.7	872	12:22	3.4
(CT	44.4	54.7	872	12:53)	0.2
DC	8.2	89.8	795	12:22	0.3
Delaware	40.7	57.3	770	12:22	4.8
Georgia	56.6	42.9	1536	12:22	2.2
Hawaii	46.7	53.3	499	12:22	(-)1.2
Idaho	65.7	32.9	559	12:22	2.6
Illinois	42.4	56.6	1392	12:23	1.6
Indiana	58.4	40.6	926	12:22	1.6
Kansas	64.5	34.1	654	12:22	(-)2.7
Kentucky	58.4	40.2	1034	12:22	0.9
Louisiana	54.7	43.9	1669	12:21	2.1
Maine	44.3	53.8	1968	12:22	0.8
Maryland	42.3	56.2	1000	12:22	0.5
Mass	32.9	65.2	889	12:22	3.7
Miss	56.5	43	798	12:22	3.3
Missouri	52	47	2158	12:21	1.5
Montana	58	37.5	640	12:22	(-)0.3
ND	64.4	32.6	649	12:22	(-)2.4
OK	65	34.6	1539	12:23	0.8
Oregon	47.9	50.3	1064	12:22	(-)1.3
RI	34.9	62.7	809	12:22	3.4
SC	53.4	45.1	1735	12:24	4.4
SD	61	36.5	1495	12:24	(-)1.8
Tenn	58	40.6	1774	12:23	(-)1.7
Texas	62.2	36.3	1671	12:22	(-)2.0
Utah	68.1	29.1	798	12:22	2.5
Vermont	33.3	63.7	685	12:22	5.2
Wash	44	54.1	2123	12:38	1.6
WV	54	44.5	1722	12:24	1.8
Wyoming	65.5	30.9	684	12:22	2.7

The following state data was obtained too late and highly
contaminated with actual tabulation results: 
State	BUSH	KERRY	#Resp	Time	Red Shift
NJ	46.2	52.8	1520	12:50	(-)0.2
NY	40.9	58.2	1452	12:52	(-)0.4
NC	56.5	42.7	2167	12:48	(-)0.4
Virginia	54.1	45.4	1431	12:56	(-)0.4

YOU WOULD THINK THE SHIFT WOULD BE LOWER IN THE 12 CRITICAL
STATES THAN THE 35 NON-CRITICAL STATES SINCE THE SAMPLE SIZE
WAS GREATER AND THEREFORE THERE WAS A SMALLER MARGIN OF ERROR
- 
BUT IT WAS JUST THE OPPOSITE
*************************************************************
Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the
critical states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192,
roughly half the size. All else being equal, higher sample
size correlates with smaller margin of error, greater
accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in the noncritical
states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%. 

Why? Hard evidence must be found to account for this egregious
statistical pattern and to prove the actual fraud. This
preliminary analysis is fairly crude, and there are probably
other, more telling ways to slice and dice the data. Also,
note that there were three exit poll "sweeps" which
led to updates around 4 pm, 8 pm, 12 midnight, following which
the "exit polls" were really contaminated by
tabulated data and of no use at all as a check mechanism. 

THIS WAS THE THIRD DATA SWEEP (12:20 AM)
*****************************************************************
I caught mostly the third sweep here (c. 12:20 am); my guess
is the second sweep would show even more dramatic
discrepancies. While the first sweep has come under skeptical
attack for having a too great female (pro-Kerry) weighting
(the figure I heard was 58%/42% female), it is at least
plausible to me that morning/daytime voters would be
disproportionately female because of work schedules, so it may
well be just one of the specious rationalizations behind a
very determined coverup (we just don't know). 

—Jonathan Simon
Thursday, 11 November 2004