Reply #74: That is something I was wondering about. [View All]

Are you saying there were two exit polls. A national one and the state by state ones?

One thing I noticed when I got this data was the 13000 sample size... compared to the 60,000 roughly sample size in the state by state polls. Until now I did not understand why though.

And you are right. If they asked everybody in the state by state poll who they voted for that data could have been fed into this.

This interests me because.

If there were two distinct polls. And they both showed the same result - i.e. kerry winning then that eliminates quite a few possibilities in terms of systemic errors. I.e. if there was some kind of systemic error it would have to be in both polls.

However as I point out in my intro on the basis of TIA's analysis of yesterday I think we now have the clearest possible evidence that the exit polls were correct.

In a nutshell 20% of the exit pollees were new voters. According to the exit poll these broke 65%/35% to Kerry. The actual result is the reverse. We are not talking about a 5% or 10% or even 3* the MOE discrepancy here... the exit poll among these 20% of the voters was out by 100% (recording bush's vote at half of what it actually was) no systemic error can explain this.

al