Reply #21: He loses plenty of credibility with the first item [View All]

"1) A big turnout and a highly energized and motivated electorate favored the GOP instead of the Democrats for the first time in history"

That was also the simpleton theory on DU prior to the election, that we were much more motivated and enthusiastic than the GOP. Backed up by wonderful little trivia like, "my Republican mother-in-law is voting for Kerry!"

Meanwhile, every poll the entire year warned Bush's supporters were significantly more enthusiastic on his behalf. You didn't even need those polls. Just remember the ABB or "Anyone But Bush" atmosphere. Always ominous, depending on rejection of the other guy and not a passionate support of your own candidate.

Here's the vital paragraph from PEW's final pre-election release, one that correctly forecast a Bush win of 51-48 and that the late undecideds would break only slightly for Kerry: http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=906

"As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates."