Reply #1: Any 4th quarter reversal of that magnitude is a choke [View All]

Just look at the necessity drive by drive. It basically requires:

* Stop
* TD
* Stop
* TD
* Stop
* TD

So any variance in one of the six possessions changes the outcome. You can even add the word "Quick" to the Stop notations. The probability of all six possessions tilting toward the trailing team by that degree is miniscule. If you applied a percentage before each drive it would equate to at least 50/1 against Miami pulling out the game with 3 TDs.

Plus the over/under of 4th quarter scoring in a game like that would have been about 10 points, so the Dolphins more than doubled it all by themselves, with a backup journeyman QB. That qualifies as a choke. Especially since it was so one dimensional. Miami threw to Chris Chambers 27 times during the game. And it's not like Buffalo should have welted in south Florida heat and humidity during December.