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Reply #59: personally, I think Pew was probably not far off [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007)

OnTheOtherHand

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Tue Dec-05-06 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #57

59. personally, I think Pew was probably not far off

but since it had Democrats +4, that doesn't especially help the cause. Bafumi et al. pointed out on Pollster.com that generic "polls of polls" are predictive, but also that they tend to overstate the winning margin (follow their link for more details). (I wouldn't have said "do not bear any resemblance.") I don't remember if it shows up in that article, but the prediction error (root mean square) of the polls of polls is so large that one just ends up shrugging.

Still haven't had time to look at your list of races.

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