Reply #10: I wouldn't dance too soon [View All]

there was bad news today
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2095339,00.html
THE virus that causes bird flu has split into two distinct genetic subgroups, widening the gene pool from which a form that could trigger a human pandemic might evolve.
snip
Before 2005 every known human case of avian flu had been caused by a particular subtype of the H5N1 virus, which affected Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand.

The H5N1 virus that started to infect people in Indonesia last year, however, has now been found to have subtle genetic differences, which scientists likened to those between human cousins. While this mutation has not in itself made the H5N1 virus any more readily transmissible from person to person — the key step if it is to start a pandemic — the changes are worrying because they show that the virus is increasing in genetic diversity.

This is important because a wider gene pool creates more opportunities for H5N1 to acquire the characteristics it needs to infect humans with ease, though it remains uncertain whether or not this will happen. It will also make it more difficult for scientists to monitor the way that the virus is changing, so as to track potentially dangerous mutations.
snip
“Back in 2003 we only had one genetically distinct population of H5N1 with the potential to cause a human pandemic. Now we have two.”



Canada has made a law making it a crime with jail time and a hefty fine for health care workers who decide not to show up for work in case of a pandemic. I think they are taking it seriously.