Reply #32: Senate Prospects Continue to Worsen for GOP [View All]

Senate Prospects Continue to Worsen for GOP
By Reid Wilson - Sept. 17, 2007
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/09/senate_prospects_continue_to_w.html


In 1980, former California Governor Ronald Reagan beat incumbent President Jimmy Carter in a landslide so massive that eleven Democratic Senate seats went Republican along with the White House. Republicans knocked off a number of Senate lions, including Idaho's Frank Church, Indiana's Birch Bayh, South Dakota's George McGovern and Washington's Warren Magnuson.

Six years later, facing the second midterm election of an incumbent president, historically the worst election for the incumbent party, many of those freshmen Republicans didn't survive. Democrats, in 1986, won back nine seats and lost just one, recapturing the majority.

As more Republican Senators retire and more top-notch Democratic candidates emerge to contest GOP-held seats, many political observers say they see parallels between the 1986 elections and next year's battles. Like 1986, next year features races decided narrowly in Republicans' favor six years earlier. Like 1986, Republicans can't seem to catch a break. .......

The bleeding may not stop there. Thanks to ethics problems and continuing retirement rumors, Sens. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Pete Domenici (R-NM) could create two more open seats for Republicans to defend, both of which would likely cause contentious primaries, while Democrats have been actively pursuing top nominees in case retirements come about. .......