Reply #5: About #1.... [View All]

I agree that people have to really take the polling with a grain of salt and
examine the polling methodology.

When I was in Iowa, it was evident to me that the race was not tied, as most polls had it.

Many of the local nuances--the nuances that determine the winner--are not picked up by polls. People
often wait until the last minute to make up their minds. I know in Iowa, it was as if
people were waiting for a candidate to slip up or to say something brilliant that would
permanently sway them to vote for that person.

I think the last-minute factor, is significant and immeasurable. Sometimes these voters make their
decisions on nuances and "feelings" that many of us outside of that state don't see or feel.

That's how surprises, like last night, happen.

Also, the psychology of a state has a factor as well. New Hampshire-ites are consistently
known for going against the grain. It's as if they don't want to be told who for whom
they'll vote. I think many in NH perceived Obama as a "sensation" or the flavor of the
day, and many felt that voting for him meant that they were swept up in a national trend.
They didn't like that.

Carrying that skepticism about Obama, I think forced them to give Clinton a closer look. Her emotion
helped her, because it humanized her. We didn't get to see her human side in Iowa, believe me.
Also, during the debates--she looked as if she was being attacked. Obama's under-the-breath
comment didn't help. Also, the media was sooooo cheerleading for Obama. It was kind a bit over
the top. No one likes the media steering them toward a candidate and the media was practically
saying that it was over. The people of NH rejected this with their ballots.

Hillary went in as an underdog and I think the people of NH decided to give her a second look, and
as they did---she was able to snag many voters.

As we go into these other states, one cannot overestimate the importance of trends at the micro level,
and the last-minute behavior of those voting. These things are often undetected by the polls.

SC and Nevada will be interesting, that's for sure.