We can't depend on a last minute change of fortune. No one is going to care if the economic signs are improved in October. Every historical-based election forecast looks at economic numbers many months ahead of election day as a guideline.
My concern is sharply spiked summer gas prices impacting Obama's approval rating, which has direct ties to the midterm. When gas prices did not fall during winter it guaranteed a huge jump during the peak months. I'd estimate $3.50 or higher, and that's something the party in power can't afford.
Nate Silver is correct to warn that it may be much worse than current consensus.
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