Reply #22: selection bias, yet again [View All]

i keep explaining this


here's a hint. in all the cases where a person accused of homicide DID talk to police and subsequently the case was dropped or wasn't charged etc. then the DA necessarily wouldn't have PROSECUTED those cases.

people have a really hard time understanding selection bias.

i interviewed probably 80-150 people in the last month, where at least they were suspected of a crime, to some extent

let's say 99% of those never make it to court

do you see how that skews the stats, from a perspective of somebody who PROSECUTES cases? iow, takes on cases where there IS enuf evidence for prosecution

here's a case that happens on occasion, and has happened to me

i approached a guy breaking into a car with a coat hanger. 2am , deserted parking lot.

the registered owner of the car is not him. i ask him what he is doing. he is being QUESTIONED. he says, it's his girlfriend's car and he is driving it with her permission, but he locked himself out and the keys are inside.

if he does NOT answer my questions (which no sane person would decide not to do but he certainly has the RIGHT not to) he will end up getting arrested? why? because i have PC to believe he is unlawfully trying to enter the car belonging to another person. when he TALKS to me, i can confirm his story and he may even get some help in getting in the car

those cases never make a case docket or DA's office

selection bias.

the cases that make the DA's office are ones where sufficient evidence is obtained to charge

hth