Reply #5: Sounds like a bogus claim [View All]

But there should be an investigation. And if I were a Colombian living in Venezuela, I would consider packing my bags. This could get really ugly if they start trying to put the blame on Colombians.

Chavez said today the water level at the dam was 249.5 meters, claiming it had gone up. I seriously doubt it. He also claimed that if they had not taken measures, the level would be at 246 meters. But the projection made at Devil's Excrement was for 248,5 meters, so the dam is one meter above the projection. Let us look now at the math: the river flow has been running around 700 to 800 meters cubed per second, the water used by the power station has been running above 4000 meters cubed per second. To get the level to go up they need to increase the river's flow to say 5000 meters per second.

This website has a fairly decent analysis, based on the trends observed, the water level should not begin to increase until around June 1 if it rains. They are having some rains, but the first rains soak into the dry soil, therefore there will be a lag time before they start to reach the reservoir in the volumes needed to offset withdrawals.

Since this is a managed system, it would seem they will cut back on consumption as required to keep the level above 240 meters, and then sometime in late May or early June it will hit bottom, just above 240 meters. So the problem is solvable if there's strict rationing.

The problem will come later, because the economy doesn't work very well when factories and businesses are closed part of the time. And unless we have the mother of all rainy seasons, the reservoir won't be back to normal, which means that, as we enter the next dry season, we're set for another crisis. Which means the government has to get very serious about fixing what they can in our now decrepit system, and build new plants on schedule.

I trust the government to take the radical measures needed to avoid the collapse. But the price will be steep. Expect a very depressed set of GDP figures for the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Also there may be some unrest by union workers in factories closed to save power.

And then there's this brewing crisis with Colombia now. I recall the Argentinian military junta started a little war in 1982, when they lost the economy, and this made them popular for a few months. Then they lost the war. And the rest is history.