"Combating global warming will be a top priority of my presidency" [View All]

There is still a narrow (and, yes, improbable) path to passage. Here's how it goes: Kerry and Lieberman introduce their bill on Wednesday, looking roughly like it looks now, with drilling provisions intact like Lieberman wants. It fizzles, lost amidst Elena Kagan, tornadoes, and Gordon Brown. After a couple weeks, buoyed by public opinion that is clearly turning against drilling and in favor of clean energy, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) takes control of the process, strips drilling out, boosts the energy-efficiency and renewable-energy provisions, and gives the bill a big, public push.

For this to happen requires two things, which also require each other. First, public opinion has to keep moving and getting louder. There has to be a sense of urgency behind passing a bill. That's always been the missing ingredient. The forces in the Senate pushing for clean energy have had, up to this point, essentially no cards in their hand. Now they have one, and it might, just might, be possible to put opponents of clean energy on the defensive. Make Republicans explain why they don't favor energy independence.

But for public opinion to crystallize and become a serious force, it must be echoed, amplified, and directed by the only politician most Americans still trust: Barack Obama. I've said this before and it remains true: The only way this thing gets done is if Obama lays himself on the line for it. (It would also help, incidentally, if the left pushed to mobilize the public behind a bill, though at this point the left seems content just bitching and moaning about it, as they've done throughout the entire process.)