Pragmatic progressive decisions: run to replace conservative Democrat or. . . [View All]

. . .run to win in a formerly Republican district drawn to benefit Democrats.

In order to protect incumbent Dan Lipinski in the 3rd Congressional District, Illinois Democrats drew a new congressional map that moved his potential primary opponent, John Atkinson, to the new 11th Congressional District that is currently held by Republican Adam Kinzinger. The district has been withdrawn to benefit Democrats and analysts predict it will be a Democratic pick-up. Kinzinger will now reside in the Jesse Jackson's 2nd Congressional District which is so top heavy with Dems/minorities he'd have to move to a new district to have a chance. Furthermore the new 11th is so waited for Dems that it would be difficult for Kinzinger to run there.

Complicating things is the fact the the Democrats redrew the 14th District so that former Congressman Bill Foster can regain his seat, however Foster is leaning towards running in the new 11th.

So what would you do if you were Atkinson?:

On the one the one hand you might defeat a conservative incumbent Democrat (Dan Lipinski) and then you might win the general election and if you do you do not add to the the number of Democratic seats in the house or on the other hand you can run in a district that was drawn specifically for you, which would be a net gain for the Democrats (provided we hold serve on the other seats).

I think the wild card here is Foster. If Foster can be convinced to run in the 14th, I think it makes sense for Atkinson to run in the 11th and be more concerned with the Democrats gaining two seats (14 & 11) as opposed to just running to knock out a conservative Democrat.

Dems jockey over who will run in proposed congressional districts
BY ABDON PALLASCH Political Reporter apallasch@suntimes.com May 29, 2011 12:20AM

The fallout from Illinois Democrats’ majory redrawing of the state’s congressional map continued Saturday as former Rep. Bill Foster opened a campaign fund-raising account in preparation to run in a southwest suburban district that was actually drawn to favor a different Democrat.

Foster’s filing with the Federal Election Commission indicates that he plans to run in what will be the new 11th District, an oddly-shaped district resembling a genie coming out of a lamp. The district would include Joliet and Aurora, part of Foster’s old district.

But state legislative leaders want Foster, a physicist and businessman, to run in an expansive new 14th district that includes his home in Batavia and runs from far north suburban Antioch and Harvard to southwest suburban Minooka.

Democrats, who control both houses of the state Legislature, could approve the new congressional map Sunday.

The new map of the 11th district includes Burr Ridge, where insurance broker John Atkinson lives. Atkinson, though, has already raised $500,000 to launch a primary challenge in the 3rd district against Rep. Dan Lipinski, a conservative Democrat from the Southwest Side.

“I have serious policy differences with Dan Lipinski — I would prefer someone in that seat who wanted to work with the president,” Atkinson said Saturday.

But state Democratic leaders want Atkinson to win a new seat for Democrats in the 11th rather than challenge Lipinski, an ally of powerful state House Speaker Michael Madigan, who lives in the 3rd district.

Atkinson said Saturday he was still evaluating what to do.
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http://www.suntimes.com/5656436-417/dems-jockey-over-who-will-run-in-proposed-congressional-districts.html