STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY OCT 2....(#1)

Last week, the Initial Claims came in at 381K and the following explanation was given:
"A Labor Department spokesman said the decline in claims was exaggerated because many job seekers did not file during Hurricane Isabel, which disrupted the East Coast last week. As many as 10,000 additional workers might have filed claims if not for the storm, the spokesman said"
Quoted from last week's thread--http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=131741#131796

I predicted "This week's figure will be revised upward, so the jump in NEXT week's figures won't look quite so bad!"

Let's see what happens today!

Like clockwork I'll bet. You know, I wonder if the people who assemble these reports do so with a chuckle? As in, "Let's see if anybody notices?"

Which Way Now?

Today’s rally was a direct reversal of what we saw in the markets a day earlier, with a little extra oomph. U.S. markets gained more than 2 percent, despite some mixed news on the economic front. Some of the buying in today’s market was attributed to some bargain shopping as many investors saw the recent price weaknesses in some the technology stocks as an opportunity to get in.

Today was another example of everyone just buying to be buying as nobody wants to miss out on the next expected run in stock prices. Momentum and sentiment is still behind the stock market’s advances, however, investors should be concerned with the fact that economic data has been getting weaker in the last few weeks. As was reported in today’s releases, construction spending came in short of expectations, U.S. industries continue to shed jobs and the national manufacturing barometer slipped to 53.7 in the last month. The chance that corporate earnings reports fail to impress in the coming weeks could be the catalyst that bursts the latest bubble.

more

I wish I had radfringe's little lemmings to post, running back and forth across the page for that Wrap-up!

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

HI Ozy, Maeve and all--

Looks like they are trying to brace us for some ugly UE #s eh? Will this week's upward revision be higher than usual? It would seem so...we'll know soon enough.

Just saw on CNBC up 13,000 to 399,000. Hmmm.

Should be interesting today. Like every day. ;-)

Julie

Initial jobless claims rise to 399,000 in latest week from revised 386,000 in prior week. Details coming.

Last week revised up and up beyond that this week. Gee, who could have predicted THAT? :think:

Of course a one-eyed king in the land of the blind may have seen it coming too. :-)

Julie

Economy moving in fits and starts
Latest numbers mean the self-sustaining rebound is still more of a forecast than a fact.
October 1, 2003: 3:15 PM EDT
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When trying to call trends in the U.S. economy, it's always dangerous to give too much weight to individual indicators.
But the numbers so far this week seem to paint a picture of an economy that's not quite as awful as it's been, but not quite as strong as some forecasts have hoped.
<more>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If any of you missed it yesterday, mrsteve caught the fact that the announced Ford and Daimler job cuts were not included in the Challenger report for September (see posts 38 and 40 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=141676&mesg_id=142255&page=)--if you add them, layoffs for September were UP compared to August. FYI

All along, the doomsayers have been indicating several weaknesses in the economy-at-large. Now, what I glean from these reports is that there are several sectors that will collapse in slow motion. Somehow, the Cassandra in me imagines the whole economic picture to darken instantly - as though the pawltry number of stocks in my portfolio would become as worthless as the paper they're printed on, bonds skyrocket and America becomes another Argentina. But I know this not to be the case. The system has been redesigned so that we do not have another Black Monday 1987.

I thoroughly believe that we are in trouble. Paul Krugman offers a lesson:

<blockquote>I have a little trouble, to be honest. It's this funny thing: I lived this very comfortable life in a very placid college town, with nice people all around. And life is good. But some of us -– not just me, but a fair number of people, including my friends -- we've looked at the news, and we sort of extrapolate the lines forward. And there's this feeling of creeping dread.</blockquote>

So what we need, in my mind, is less a "correction" and more like "chemotherapy". The way I see things as a primitive intuitive economic observer - there will be several uncomfortable and unflattering changes that will need to be made to market valuations. This includes governance both at the NYSE board and at the SEC.

Data on unemployment, due out tomorrow, could say a lot about what is in store for the economy.

Entering the last leg of his four-year term, George W. Bush is on the verge of becoming the first U.S. president since Herbert Hoover in the 1930s to preside over an economy that lost more jobs than it added.

That is why the monthly jobs report that will be released tomorrow for September will be one of the more important economic gauges for the foreseeable future.

The nation's job base - an economic measure that most people relate to on a gut level - has shriveled by 2.7 million while Bush has been president, most recently by 93,000 in August.

Employment is emerging as a leading issue in the presidential campaign, because economists fear that if it is not resolved soon, the nation could stumble back into recession, with output shrinking, corporate profits disappearing, and consumers unwilling or unable to spend.

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/front/6910376.htm

You gotta love Bush being compared to Hoover in a major newspaper!

is starting to look rosy....

Funny how economists(and pundits) can be so optimistic when "the jobs that are gone are never coming back." But, oh, we're such great innovators...

How about some government stimulus for alternative energy technologies?

and the message for the day is mixed - while this number is currently "up" - it reflects a downward trend - the dollar is opening lower and lower and so the expectations are "lower and lower" - just like the expectations with *'s performance, we just keep lowering the bar so that we can have "success" :puke:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 92.54 Change +0.15 (+0.16%)

At the opening bell, it's:

Dow 9,451.72 -17.48 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,828.63 -3.62 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,017.07 -1.14 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.021% +0.089

and a bit unsure. Heard that continuing UE claims are up by 62,000! Ouch!

Off to dentist to continue long and arduous ordeal. May the markets fare better than I expect to. ;-)

Julie

I hope you can relax and think about it being over soon.

The best thing I can do for distraction is wonder what's going on on the Street and try to guess where things will be when I get out of there. :-) I see I was off the mark today. haha

Julie

Dow 9,428.46 -40.74 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,823.72 -8.53 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,013.38 -4.84 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.038% +0.106

U.S. stocks poised for more gains at open

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were aiming higher Thursday looking to build upon the previous session's monstrous gains.
S&P futures were up 0.50 to 1,016.90 while Nasdaq futures lifted 1,338.50.

There was little change to the numbers after the Labor Department said the number of workers seeing unemployment insurance for the first time rose 13,000 to 399,000 last week.

Though the weekly number rose, it remained at a level below the key 400,000 mark that economists say divides an improving from worsening job market.

story

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Dow 9,456.09 -13.11 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,833.49 +1.24 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,017.15 -1.06 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.042% +0.110

Factory Orders Falter
August slide of 0.8% is wider than expected, sparked by downturn in transportation-related items.
October 2, 2003: 10:04 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. manufactured goods tumbled in August, the Commerce Department said Thursday in a report that provided another sign America's manufacturing sector is ailing.

Commerce said factory orders dropped a larger-than-expected 0.8 percent in August, led by a 2.3 percent drop in transportation-related orders. Orders for durable goods -- items meant to last three or more years -- were revised to a 1.1 percent decline from the 0.9 percent drop reported last week. Factory orders for July, however, were revised up slightly in Thursday's report, to a 2.0 percent gain.

The August decline was the first since April, when orders slid 2.6 percent, and was steeper than Wall Street forecasts for a 0.2 percent decline<more>

Rollercoaster time!

Dow 9,474.39 +5.19 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,836.40 +4.15 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,018.54 +0.33 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.050% +0.118

Dow 9,457.06 -12.14 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,832.05 -0.20 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,017.23 -0.99 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.046% +0.114

It has been said that the unemployment numbers were down because of the hurricanes interferance, that the automaker numbers were not included in the layoff numbers for last month. To sum it up in a joe six pack fashion, why am I getting the christmas catalogs if the economy is heading for such a good winter. I think the retailers know they need to start pushing the product now or face a really bad holiday sales season. A billion dollars over 2 1/2 months, or a billion over 6 weeks. It is still a billion in inventory. That is the joe six pack view of the economy: they are scared and know what they are not telling.

Isn't this another notoriously short hoiday season as was last year? After such an abysmal performance last year and a slack year before that, one would imagine they would have a plan set.


Dow 9,462.39 -6.81 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,833.48 +1.23 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,018.07 -0.15 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.046% +0.114

says that Christmas catalogs always come out in the first week of October. It's been that way since the early 60's, maybe before.

That said, the economy is still in the tank due to the horrible employment situation and the exodus of jobs and the despicable practice of outsourcing.

Dow 9,474.17 +4.97 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,833.12 +0.87 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,018.15 -0.07 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.028% +0.096

Dow 9,464.54 -4.66 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,827.94 -4.31 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,016.43 -1.79 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037% +0.105

Hi everyone!

Today's reading is SOVEREIGNTY changing to TRAVELING. I'll give you a quote from each. First Sovereignty, "Keep in mind that the situation is at its beginning and difficulties may lie on the road ahead." Which fits in with the message of Traveling which is "Keep moving."

I think we are going to end up down for the day.

I have to go to work. Have a wonderful afternoon.


Dow 9,463.42 -5.78 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,827.13 -5.12 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,016.42 -1.80 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.019% +0.087

some of us spend too mch time in the Lounge! :D

And a rollercoaster day it is...

Dow 9,472.02 +2.82 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,830.13 -2.12 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,017.41 -0.80 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.024% +0.092

And now a little more red ink as all the major indexes start sinking

Dow 9,470.98 +1.78 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,828.88 -3.37 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,017.20 -1.02 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.012% +0.080

Yahoo Fi updates:
"1:30PM: More of the same, as the major averages are continuing to vacillate around the flat line... The bulk of the sectors remain little changed, with the only leaders to the upside of note being the networking, biotech, and airline groups... Laggards of note are the software and disk drive groups, but the banking sector, which is especially influential in determining market direction, also remains in the red...
The market is showing commendable resilience in the face of yesterday's gains, which ranged 2.1-2.5% for the major averages and its favorable bias is being supported, in part, by this morning's Initial Claims data, which came in at 399K for the second back-to-back reading of 400K, a level synonymous with payroll increases..."

Always the interesting question....which way the witching hour?

I think it's struggling too much to end up today.

Yahoo Finance Updates:

"2:00PM: The indices are stuck in a rut without making much headway one way or another... Overall, it's encouraging to see the market hold on to the bulk of its yesterday's gains and the long-term outlook for stock remains bullish, given the historically-low interest rates and the Fed's accommodative policy... Nevertheless, valuation concerns are continuing to plague the market, which has had a tremendous run over the past six and a half months..."

Hah! "valuation concerns are continuing to plague the market" That's an understatement. ROTFLMAO

Dow 9,490.02 +20.82 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,834.15 +1.90 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,019.47 +1.25 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 3.971% +0.039


Anyone else getting motion sickness here?

Check on the 5-day chart and you can see the volume profile for the day's trading.

I had a couple of predictions prove accurate today--if I miss on that last one, I'm not too concerned! (Course, it's still not 3pm)

Wonder where everyone's at?

Which is potentially a market mover. I'll bet the low volume is because many traders are sitting tight until then.

Into the last 30 minutes - small gains for the day.

Dow 9,490.61 +21.41 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,835.98 +3.73 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,019.88 +1.67 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.009% +0.077

And wow - Yahoo Finance (actually Briefing.com) spanks the employment estimate coming out tomorrow:

"3:00PM: Largely range-bound trading persists as neither the sellers nor the buyers are willing to push the indices one way or another... Some of the hesitation to bid the market higher stems from investors' concerns regarding the jobless nature of the current recovery... As such, many investors are exhibiting hesitation ahead of tomorrow's Employment report, which will shed more light on the state of the job market... The consensus estimate is for September Non-Farm Payrolls to check in at a decline of -25K versus the previous reading of -93K...
Briefing.com, for its part, looks for Non-Farm Payrolls report to come in at -40K...

Dow 9,477.79 +8.59 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,833.72 +1.47 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,019.14 +0.92 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.009% +0.077

So I was wrong....

Dow 9,487.80 +18.60 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,836.19 +3.94 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,020.24 +2.02 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.009% +0.077