STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY OCT 16....(#1)

Can It Hold?

Buoyed in early morning trading by a strong earnings report from Intel Corp., at the close of trading on Tuesday the Dow Industrial Average pushed to a level it hasn’t seen since May 2002. Unable to hold those levels through the day, the index retreated in afternoon trading to finish in the red.

Also reporting this morning was General Motors, which reported better than expected results but saw a drop in the profitability of its North American automobile business. GM reported a $0.79 per share profit in the most recent quarter, handily beating First Call expectations of $0.66 per share. The bad news came in the operating profits in the core business, North American Operations, as income tumbled to $128 million from $533 million last year. The majority of the firm’s earnings came from its strong results in its financing businesses. Soon you will no longer find GM compared against its current peers in the Automotive sector and will likely soon find it listed as a financial sector company

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Economic data released today focused in on the state of retail sales in the U.S. According to today’s initial release of September results, shoppers took a bit of a breather during the past month as sales dipped at the nation’s retailers by 0.2 percent, the first such drop in retail sales since April. Chances are that the buying binge of July and August from the child tax credit checks resulted in some higher-than-expected numbers. Fed papers released today also indicated that consumer spending generally strengthened, though most districts reported a pullback in auto sales.

very dry reading...but not like yesterday's salt and chalkdust sandwich

Interesting GM theory. My dad, he was in the financial sector of GM, made more than a few predictions. They were all long ago as he died in 1990 but here are two I often think of.

1. The days where a man walks into a factory and gets a good paying job for life are over.

2. In the end there will be no more than three auto manufacturers in the world.

One of these days I will PM you on private research findings from the late 80's on who actually owned some of the hugest chunks of GM stock. Some guy in my dad's division set out on the quest for that answer. Interesting findings.

Anyhow, futures are looking darker as the morning moves on. Will check back in a bit, time for child #2. :-)

Julie

Your father's words are prophetic. Think of how much the Big Three automakers own - and are owned (like Daimler Chrysler) - these days.

It truly is a sad thought that the only independent automaker anymore is Porsche. It is still family-owned. I have learned that Porsche is not publicly traded in this country because they would have to open their books, making their balance sheets available to anyone who might have hostile intent towards them.

Anyway, my wife has a meeting at work so I am taking the morning off from the shop. These early morning hours have been wonderful for getting things done. I miss sharing my coffee with you folks here at the stock thread.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Hi, Ozy and Julie and greetings to all later arriving Marketeers! Thursday again and you know what that means....Inital CLaims Lottery! Last week's figure was 382K, a nicer low figure than we've seen for a while. However, no figure goes unrevised. Expectations are for 385-390K, so I'm betting the revision will be up and we may see it "drop" this week. (Say, it comes in at 386K and last week's gets revised up to 390K--a "drop" of 4,000 instead of a "rise" of the same amount). Again, look to the 4-week average and remember that there is much less slack to be cut anymore.

Krispy Kreme just re-opened their flagship Atlanta location after a total renovation. They must have installed new superpowered exhaust fans because you can smell the goodies for several blocks in every direction now. (No need for the "Hot Donuts Now" neon sign in the window.)

As for unemployment figures: your reasoned expectations say it all. Weekly figures are just fluff.

"jobless claims fell to 384,000 in latest week" sez CNN/Money

Since they were at 382K last week, it means that the figure was revised upward.

(on edit:Yahoo says the figure dropped 4K, so it must have been revised up to 388K)

Just once, I'd like for them not to be so $#%@#$ing predictable...

They have a great deal of autonomy, but there is quite a bit of tech sharing going on, like with the VW Touraeg (pronounce it "toerag" - any Eastenders here?) SUV.

Is Porsche a subsidiary or a partner?

The economic recovery is gathering speed across the US but the job market remains slack, according to the regular survey of business conditions by the Federal Reserve (news - web sites).

The "beige book", which periodically collates grassroots anecdotal evidence from the Fed's regional districts, said most regional banks reported an acceleration in the economy.

"Ten of the 12 districts indicate that activity has been expanding, while two - Boston and Cleveland - report mixed but steady levels of economic activity," the report said.

With new figures on Wednesday showing that retail sales were revised up in July and August, the report provides more confirmation that the US enjoyed a burst of rapid growth over the summer.

story

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange (news - web sites) said on Thursday it will discipline and "seek substantial fines" against five floor-trading firms for improper practices that included trading ahead of customer orders and could have caused clients millions of dollars in losses.

The NYSE did not name the firms, but shares in Dutch Van der Moolen -- one of the top five market makers in New York -- plunged to seven-month lows after it said the exchange had accused it of irregularities.

The Wall Street Journal and New York Times named the firms notified by the NYSE as Van der Moolen ; LaBranche & Co. Inc. ; Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Spear, Leeds & Kellogg; FleetBoston Financial Corp. Fleet Specialists; and Bear Wagner, owned by Bear Stearns .

more...

Consumer prices edge up
Gain in closely watched measure of consumer price inflation slightly stronger than forecast.
October 16, 2003: 8:32 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumer prices rose slightly faster than analysts' expectations in September, the government said Thursday.
The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of prices paid by consumers, rose 0.3 percent after rising 0.3 percent in August. Economists, on average, expected CPI to rise 0.2 percent, according to Briefing.com.

9:34

Dow 9,762.75 -40.30 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,930.72 -8.38 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,044.22 -2.53 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.399% +0.002

A bit of a bounce, but then....
Dow 9,740.46 -62.59 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,933.87 -5.23 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,045.30 -1.46 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.372% -0.025

Good morning everyone!

Once again, no changing lines, so the only hexagram is "DIFFICULT BEGINNINGS". Well, it looks like that has come true already!!
Anyway, here is a quote, "Success comes to those who can weather this storm while maintaining their principles."

So, for today I am going to say the markets will start low ;)
and gradually rise. I'm predicting a flat end, around where we started.

Have a good day everyone! And stay out of the lounge baseball threads!! It's pretty ugly in there! :D

10:13


Dow 9,759.94 -43.11 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,941.73 +2.63 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,047.16 +0.40 (+0.04%)

10-Yr Bond 4.360% -0.037

both on the Street and in Julie-land!

Before I head off to pump up economy (by buying more necessities for my over-throw-the-gubberment efforts) I thought I'd stop in. Have caught blurbs of blather, interesting day. Seems some of the numbers coming in are counter-intuitive to the daily cheerleading we hear/see.

Gotta say watching the footage of the Great Santelli at last night's Cubs game, *sniff* touching stuff. He's a die-hard like all Cubs fans. You just can't kill their spirit. No coincidence there are lots of Irish in Chicago. ;-)

News on the local front: Lear plant to close by July '04. That is about 400 decent paying union jobs gone. In a region this size that will hurt. Of course the explosion of growth will off-set this. Mmm hmm. We got all the restaurant and retail jobs you could ask for. So enjoy your downgrade to un-livable wages and crappy, over-priced benefits (if any at all) you former Lear people. Welcome to George Bush's America.

Hope you all are having a good day and in relatively safe positions if the severe beatings commence. As of 10:42 we see only slight bruising, even a little reprieve (heal time) in Treasuries:


Dow 9,748.53 -54.52 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,939.77 +0.67 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,045.94 -0.82 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.366% -0.031

Will check back in a bit. :hi:

Julie

Dow 9,741.35 -61.70 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,937.63 -1.47 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,045.65 -1.11 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.354% -0.043


U.S. stocks lose ground out of the gate
Thursday October 16, 10:08 am ET
By Michael Baron


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks sold off early Thursday as investors put the focus on concerns over sales growth at tech giants IBM and Nokia and took profits as earnings season kicked into full gear.
A disappointing quarterly report from Caterpillar put a drag on the Dow, as shares of the Peoria. Ill., maker of earth-moving equipment tumbled more than 6 percent.

IBM matched Wall Street's earnings view for the third quarter, but Big Blue missed revenue expectations. Nokia forecast lower earnings in the fourth quarter, flat mobile phone sales, and continued pressure on handset prices due to competition.

The broad decline came amid a deluge of high-profile quarterly reports, mostly positive, and fairly favorable economic data.

story

My, but this market must be made of cork! Just keeps bobbing to the top...
Dow 9,814.53 +11.48 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,950.02 +10.92 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,052.29 +5.53 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.435% +0.038

Dow 9,789.42 -13.63 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,945.84 +6.74 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,050.16 +3.40 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.433% +0.036


I am off to get my daughter from school and take her to violin lessons. Will be back just after markets close. Also happy to report wrapping up the massive mailing I've been working on all week for my local Dems. Whew!! Should be able to get it out Monday. :-)

Will check back to see how it all turned out. Catch you fine folks later!

Julie

Dow 9,755.49 -47.56 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,941.35 +2.25 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,046.46 -0.29 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.455% +0.058

Glad to hear of all the good work you're doing for the Cause, Julie, even if that means we don't get as much of you around here! ;-)

Pretty flat, like Coventina predicted:

Dow 9,791.72 -11.33 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,950.14 +11.04 (+0.57%)
S&P 500 1,050.07 +3.31 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.455% +0.058

One more round to go and then the weekend! :toast:

Julie