(HURRICANE KATRINA ) New Orleans braces for monster hurricane

New Orleans braces for monster hurricane
New Orleans under evacuation; storm may overwhelm levees

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- New Orleans braced for a catastrophic blow from Hurricane Katrina overnight, as forecasters predicted the Category 5 storm could drive a wall of water over the city's levees.

The huge storm, packing 160 mph winds, is expected to hit the northern Gulf Coast in the next 12 hours and make landfall as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane Monday morning.

The National Hurricane Center reports that conditions are already deteriorating along the central and northeastern coast.

A statement from the National Weather Service in Slidell, near New Orleans, Louisiana, warned that much of the affected area "will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer."

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/hurricane.katrina/

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

More at http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwus74.klix.npw.lix.txt

-------------------------

I've been a weather junkie all my life. I've followed almost each and every hurricane for almost my entire life. I remember Camille very well. In all that time, I've never seen NOAA issue anything remotely like this warning.

-------------------------

Mods: This is not a MSM news source, but it is THE source of the news so I posted it here because of it's ominous tone. I searched and found nothing about this warning, nor the warning itself.

-------------------------

Edited to add time and date headers off the original message.

It seems no less dire than the warning I read a couple hours ago.

It was issued at 4:13 p.m. Sunday, Aug 28

...in Texas-- he might very well have written that warning. The guy I was talking to was on the phone with his dad (the forecaster) while we talked, and his dad says they're expecting the worst. Katrina looks like the storm they've been warning about for decades.

:wow: I would not want to be one of those people who wanted to stay for the fun of riding it out. I feel terrible for those unable to leave but the partyers....they're going to be stuck there for weeks at least, assuming they survive.
I have an occasional customer on the Rue de Royale. I hope he and his wife and employees are OK. They're very good people.

because, what, they think it'll be fun? Crazy.

Can you post a link to the parent site where you found this? I can't seem to find it anywhere. Thanks

I looked around under "Archive", I can't seem to find this one anywhere. Sounds more like a 'worst case' kind of thing than an advisory.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER... ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL... ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED... HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE... PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK... WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

They're not mincing any words with this one. They know the potential catastrophe they're facing. My thoughts and prayers go to everyone left in the area.

The circulation bands reach from deep into Mexico, still covering Cuba, and high into the USA.

near the center, lost everything. I fear for everyone in New Orleans, it potentially could get wiped off the map!

Some of the cams down there are still working.

You'll find links at:

http://www.nola.com/bourbocam/

This afternoon I saw some people still walking around and drinking on the beadcam which is located on top of the Cat's Meow.

I'll really hate to see New Orleans go ... some of the best music, open people, and the BEST food anywhere.

Here's a link to the live feed from the beadcam:

http://www.nola.com/rpm/beadcam/beadcam.rpm

No sign of anthing down there now.

First, the Superdome is likely to be about the safest place to sit out the storm if you can't get out. It was built after Betsy (Category Five when it touched land, Category Four winds at the city). It was build to survive "a Betsy". The real problem will be how to care for 100,000 people surrounded by 18' of water that is not going anywhere.

The real danger from this storm is not the wind damage (however catastrophic that may be). Winds from Betsy (I believe were about 160 at landfall, measured at Buras at the mouth of the river) dropped to 120 in New Orleans. The storm immediately started to lose power as soon as it crossed land.

The city of New Orleans and it's immediate environs are protected by levees of 18 feet. The storm surge could reach 28 feet. That means at some point a cascade of water ten feet high pouring over the levees at some points.

Because the city is mostly at or below sea level, all water has to be lifted out by massive pumping stations, many of which will also be inundated and out of commission.

So, if the any part of the levee impoundment (the area inside the levee) floods high enough to drown the pumping stations, that water will stay there. Ultimately, after the storm, they will have to dynamite the levees in places to let the water out and expose the pumping infrastructure to that the rest can be pumped out.

The problem will be that anyone who didn't evacuate to a facility that can keep you above 18 feet will possibly have drowned. And the survivors will be in the middle of a large man-made lake and require resupply by air and water. For days or weeks.

I believe the core city will survive. A new analysis of wind and water data from Hurricane Besty I found on the internet last night support my long-standing assumption that the areas most likely to be inundated are New Orleans East and St. Bernard Parish. These are the leveed areas east of the Industrial Canal that bisects the city proper and connects the river to Lake Pontchartrain and a ship channel called the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO)

The "Mr. GO" did catastrophic to the wetlands between impounded (leveed) New Orleans East and the River. And this is precisely the area where the storm surge is most likely to reach truly catastrophic proportions, with water sucked up the Mr. GO by the storm surge (essentially a localized tidal-like rise in water level caused by the very low air pressure in the storm) compounded by wind driver water in the north east quadrant of the storms.

The river threatens St. Bernard on the other side. In Hurricane Betsy, the river literally backed up, and rosed by as much as 20 feet, threatening to breech the river levees. It is widely believed that the US Army Corps of Engineers dynamited the levees in St. Bernard Parish to save New Orleans. If you want to dispute that in St. Bernard Parish, be prepared to fight you way out. I was editor of the weekly newspaper there, and talked to enough people to tend to agree with them.

The danger to the city and those who remain there is precisely that flooding. It could fill the impounded areas with water that might takes weeks to get down to a manageable flood, and a lot longer than that to clean up after.

In it's worse possible unfolding, this is going to look a whole lot more like the tsunami than any pictures you've seen of hurricane damage in Florida.

:thumbsup:

... I sure hope my relatives are there, if they haven't been able to get out of the area.

Just watching the cable channels in a safe Northern city I'm getting a chill and a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach. I hope this doesn't turn out as bad as forecast.

CNN had a local reporter mentioning though the Super Dome should be safe, the field may get covered with several feet of water. And the stadium itself could be surrounded by 15-18 feet of water. Going to be rough for the people inside.

I pray for the people who were unable to evacuate. May you all come through safely.

DU'ers in the area, stay safe!

by helicopter ? by boat ?

Lets hope that it slows some before land fall....I hate Michigan winters...but...we don't have to worry about anything close to what the gulf coast is going through at the moment.

I'm hoping for a miracle. What else can we do?

family is spared.

Here's hoping that the storm weakens a lot before approaching land!

Live video can been seen from the "ParadeCam" at this link:

http://www.nola.com/rpm/paradecam/paradecam.rpm

Not much to witness now, trees blowing, some cars driving around in the background, but I'm sure tomorrow morning will be different.

Chances are that these cams will be without power before the night is over.

WTIX's stream is off line. Nobody else I can find in town does streaming.

I wish I could get WWL in Fargo. There's a big strong local country station that drifts all over 870, and/or I don't have a good enough radio to have a chance.

It looked like a transformer in the background was flashing, plus some lighting in the background and then the video went dark.

Gives you an eerie feeling to see the Oyster Shuck all closed up. These should be interesting to see in the early morning before the power goes off.

28 August 2005
http://www.legitgov.org/
http://www.legitgov.org/index.html#breaking_news
Bush Cut Hurricane, Flood Protection Funding to New Orleans 06 June 2005 In fiscal year 2006, the New Orleans district of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is bracing for a record $71.2 million reduction in federal funding. It would be the largest single-year funding loss ever for the New Orleans district, Corps officials said. I've been here over 30 years and I've never seen this level of reduction, said Al Naomi, project manager for the New Orleans district... The cuts mean major hurricane and flood protection projects will not be awarded to local engineering firms. Also, a study to determine ways to protect the region from a Category 5 hurricane has been shelved for now.

and get his butt back to DC to manage this crisis? The biggest diaster since 9-11 is about to hit this country, and this time he can't say he doesn't know about it.

This will probably dwarf 9-11 in scope and damage. I just hope it doesn't dwarf 9-11 in loss of life.

If he can get his a** out of vacation mode long enough for Terri Schiavo, he can certainly try to "lead" and provide moral support in the midst of this crisis.

disaster!

That's incredible.

I'm so worried for everyone in Southern Louisiana and Mississippi.

The scary part is I looked for New Orleans and they are all shut down.
So I checked for the next place inland. Good news coverage. News Radio
WJBO

http://www.wjbo.com/main.html

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA.
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT NEAR 00Z REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 155
KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO 140 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
PRESSURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...904 MB AT LAST REPORT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...OR
SFMR...SUGGESTED WINDS WERE IN THE 120-130 KT RANGE...AND LIMITED
DROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGESTED SOMETHING A LITTLE BELOW 140 KT.
THERE ARE ENOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SFMR AT
THESE SPEEDS FOR ME TO STICK WITH THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT
ADJUSTMENT FOR NOW.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER
EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW
A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS
RELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT
LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE
GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT
EVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT
EXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/9. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING JUST A BIT
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE THERE IS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...TRACK
ANOMOLIES OF 30-50 MILES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN 12-18 HOURS OUT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Times-Picayune staff are posting some updates from the scanner: http://www.nola.com/weblogs/nola/ ... one tornado reported already. Eeek! :scared:

CNN has a rather bleak and unfortunately rather likely doomsday scenario regarding secondary effects of the storm:

"Floodwaters from the east will carry toxic waste from the "Industrial Canal" area, nicknamed after the chemical plants there. From the west, floodwaters would flow through the Norco Destrehan Industrial Complex, which includes refineries and chemical plants, said van Heerden, who has studied computer models about the impact of a strong hurricane for four years.

"These chemical plants are going to start flying apart, just as the other buildings do," he predicted. "So, we have the potential for release of benzene, hydrochloric acid, chlorine and so on."

That could result in severe air and water pollution, he said.

In New Orleans, which lies below sea level, gas and diesel tanks are all located above ground for the same reason that bodies are buried above ground. In the event of a flood, "those tanks will start to float, shear their couplings, and we'll have the release of these rather volatile compounds," van Heerden added."

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/28/katrina.doomsday/index.html

the new live news feed is up and running.

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=livenoad

The stories of the evacuees are so sad knowing that you may go back to nothing. but at least they are safe.
AP reporting 90mph winds in new orleans and landfall isn't till 8 am

If you pray, pray. If you chant, chant, if you hope, hope. they need all the help they can get. this is truly the one they have expected but avoided for years. worst case scenario.

Although the anchors seem half-asleep at this point.

My thoughts go out to anyone still in this storm's path.

at least one mentioned he had been on since 6am. Sounds like they are there for the long haul. gotta give them a heads up for that

:hi:

It is fluctuating, and they all do, and it seems to be on the upswing again, regenerating on its west (left) side, with the eye wall recovering its integrity. Keep an eye on the official conditions, for a drop in barometric pressure, an increase in wind speed, and a possible re-upgrade to Cat 5.

It could also abruptly weaken again. It will soon be running out of ocean to depend on for energy.

--p!

...says 5:30 AM updates put pressure at 917, winds at 150. Storm weakening a bit and tracking east of NOLA.

The north part of the storm is over land, so it's starved for warm, wet air. But it looks like Mississippi and Alabama are going to get the brunt of it. There could also be intense flooding all up the eastern part of the lower Mississippi Delta over the next 2-3 days.

The storm also appears to be moving in a more westerly direction over the last hour, but these fluctuations are common. This may be a second-worst-case scenario, but it mainly depends on the storm surge, which still hasn't hit.

--p!

They did an excellent job yesterday in raising public awareness and facilitating the mass evacuation. Looks like Katrina is a bit weakenned and will hit just east of New Orleans, with some breeching of the leevies, but not to the catastrophic degree that was feared yesterday.

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=livenoad

They moved to Baton Rouge

That's #310 if you've got Warner Cable. They are broadcasting from Baton Rouge, with help from LSU students. Last night, they were mostly talking & showing the occasional weather radar.

As of this morning, the storm appears to have turned just a bit, perhaps saving New Orleans from the absolute worst. Still looks pretty bad, though.

According to local news, Houston hotels have been filling up with refugees. One downtown parking lot is free for cars with LA plates. The HPD search & rescue team will be helping in the aftermath.

Thankfully!!

have catestrophic flooding. Very good news indeed...especially good for the pets left behind!And the people too.

No power inside the dome and a leaking roof...that's gotta suck...

.. it's just a leaky roof. They'll all survive.

It looks as though NOLA will come out all right. Yay!!!!

Sue

The host and the meteorologist just demonstrated what a 20' high storm surge will look like (in a way sure to be ridiculed by Jon Stewart)

NOLA isn't out of the woods yet, but Biloxi will take the worst hit. They also mentioned that one section of NOLA is already under water (Ward 9, I think they said).

Governor is on now, "There is no structural damage to the Superdome"
The fabric tore off the roof, but there is no damage to the metal structure.

http://www.wwltv.com/

.. A LEVEE BREACH OCCURRED ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL AT TENNESSE STREET. 3 TO 8 FEET OF WATER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BREACH...LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARABI AND 9TH WARD OF NEW ORLEANS.

St. Bernard Parish spokesman Larry Ingargiola says the parish's two shelters at Chalmette High and St. Bernard High are suffering major damage. He said Chalmette High shelter is losing its roof, and St. Bernard High has plenty of broken windows and glass. He estimates 300-plus refugees at the two sites.

Entergy says 317,000 customers were without power as of 6 a.m. Cleco reported 40,000 without power in St. Tammany Parish.

Air conditioning out at Louisiana Superdome due to power outages.

St. Bernard Parish officials say most of the parish has no power.

is the next place to go? The water will flow everywhere. :scared:

.....He estimates 300-plus refugees at the two sites.

:scared:

:shrug:
rocknation

10,000 people inside. It appears they will be moved from where one would view a game to the outer part - the concourse or mezzanine area.

This has been reported on CNN.

I'll post a link as soon as one is available.

:scared:

I hope everyone down there is OK.

where it happened, it hasn't damaged the structural integrity of the building.

He also just reported that the worst of it for NO is the next 60 minutes.

is reporting on it now from inside the dome.

I was having nightmares about this last night.

:(

and/or diss the evacuation plan: asking is the Senator is disappointed that "only 80%:" were evacuated. Landrieu deflected her, but O'Brien kept implying that folks living in NO were at fault for living there in the first place. Landrieu explained that the Gulf Coast is a working coast - - people who live there provide 1/4 of our domestic gas & oil production, and ship goods from the Midwest out the Mississippi.

Our media is a national disgrace.

you know those without a car whether because the can't afford one or they DON'T NEED ONE because they live and work in a city.

Idiots.

but why the resources weren't in place to get anyone who wanted to leave out. They had three freaking days, every major city should have an exacuation plan to be able to empty the city in 72 hours. Every city bus should have been filled with people who may have wanted to leave, every city vehicle helping people leave who didn't have other means to do so. Every greyhound bus in the tri state area should have been helping. come on people, what's your plan if someone lets off a chemical or radiological weapon in the french quarter on Mardi Gras? surely you have one? This would have been a very good time to practice.

I have no idea of their range on a tank of gas (first thing that popped in my head) so maybe that is prohibitive given the traffic situation. I never heard any talking head ask anyone why some effort to just simply get the people out of there wasn't made.

to get people to higher ground, at least. get 100 miles inland and the 'cane is much lessened. (it's why Miami can't win on the road)

BREAKING NEWS

Report: Roof of Superdome in New Orleans, where thousands evacuated ahead of Hurricane Katrina, is leaking rain. Details soon.

Also lost 1/12 of the roof

http://www.cnn.com/

There are two holes on one side of the roof where rain is getting in. They said that part of the roof lifted but settled back down. It appears to be holding other than the two holes. Brian Williams, who is there, emailed these pictures to the Today Show studio.

the reporter described it like a pie cut into 12 slices and one of the slices is gone and another one is vibrating..

here is the link..

http://www.wdsu.com/video/4907831/detail.html

I'm sorry for not having a link. I'll post more when I hear more.

Appreciate all updates. No matter what...:cry:

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