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Latest Pew poll has Bush down to 50% (dissaprove up 6%, approve down 5%)

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jenk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 04:48 PM
Original message
Latest Pew poll has Bush down to 50% (dissaprove up 6%, approve down 5%)
getting a lot of mixed signals with these polls....

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Oct. 15-19, 2003. N=1,515 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?" If "Depends": "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"

A D DK
10/15-19/03 50% 42% 8%
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FlemingsGhost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 05:01 PM
Response to Original message
1. Here on in, I suspect Bush will poll at, or just below 50%
thus giving him the opportunity to squeak-out another "very close election." (Wink, wink)

Even if the fight is fixed, be sure to give the fans a show.
Think "WWF"...
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central scrutinizer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 05:02 PM
Response to Original message
2. but but but
Bush doesn't believe in polls, read polls, or govern through polls, or mention polls, unless, of course, they are trending upwards. And that $1 million/year polling operation in the White House basement is not really a polling operation because Bush doesn't believe in polls.
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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
3. And what's really interesting is that in this poll it's been a straight
drop since April 9. Twenty five points in five to six months . . . woo hoo!

Date . . . . . Approve
. . . . . . . . . . . . .Disapprove
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Don't know
10/15- 19/03 .50 42 8
9/17 - 22/03 .55 36 9
8/5 - 11/03 ...56 32 12
7/14 - 8/5/03 53 37 10
6/24 - 7/8/03 58 32 10
6/19 - 7/2/03 60 29 11
4/30 - 5/4/03 65 27 8
4/10-16/03 . .72 22 6

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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 05:10 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Looks like it's time for another war.
Can't let the poll numbers slip below 50.
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. and, he's got 87B just burning a hole in his pocket
like a redneck roughneck off the oil rigs he used to own, its payday and he's ready for some fun in town. Get a little drunk, maybe pick a fight or two (attack a country, maybe two). The plus side is that his daddy can bail him out, just like he and his friends did back in the oil days.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
6. 42% disapproval is the highest
that has been - those are the numbers we need to see continue rising
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Indeed, Ma'am
Rising negatives trump declining positives.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"
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jeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 06:04 PM
Response to Original message
8. Do you mean that Gallup was wrong?
Ever since Gallup released their infamous 56% approval rating, not a single other polling firm has confirmed it.

It's been as low as 49% with Zogby. As high as 53% with FOX.

Could it be that Gallup is pulling our leg?
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ByeDick Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. If you want to know why Gallup needs to fudge the numbers:
Edited on Tue Oct-21-03 08:04 PM by ByeDick

George W. is about to cross a very important poll benchmark.

He's just about to cross BELOW the comparable post-war re-election trends of Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton.

See VERY TELLING GRAPH here:
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shockingelk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. margin of error ...
The margin of error for the Gallup poll is around 4% - so "56% approval" really means "between 52% and 60% approval" ... and if you follow with your eye the general trend of the Gallup poll, you'll see that the last four points are within 8% of the general trend ... so likely what it means is the third and fourth most recent polls were lowballing it and the two since have been highballing it.

It is not proof of dishonesty as some have argued.
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. great graph
nice to see Bush* heading to Nixon end of reign territory.
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Gloria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #8
18. Irony of ironies---the head of Pew, Andy Kohut, was the President of
Gallup back when I worked there 1978-80 (alternated with Leonard Wood every year). He left to got to Pew, but still does all the election analysis on PBS, just like when he was at Gallup.

Gallup was sold to a corporate entity years ago, so it's not the same outfit that was run by Andy, with the founder George Sr. still roaming the halls. That was the real Gallup and I was proud to be there way back then.
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DemNoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 06:29 PM
Response to Original message
9. The PEW poll usually leans Republican
If this is the best they can do for him he must really be in trouble!
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 06:31 PM
Response to Original message
10. The Horse (MWO) has a great take on the new Pew Poll
www.mediawhoresonline.com

FLASH: Yet Another Poll Puts Lie to Last Week's "Bush Rebounds" Myth Perpetrated by Hopeful State-Run Media in Response to Gallup Fluke...
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ByeDick Donating Member (98 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
11. The most important thing about these numbers...

Is that they are WARTIME polls.

Every time Bush gets behind a microphone, he talks about WAR AND TERRORISM and TERRORISM and WAR.

The People are judging him by how he and the cable tabloid media define him... As the high and mighty WARRIOR.

These are Bush's HIGH numbers, not Bush's low numbers.
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
12. This Confirms the Continuing Steady Downward Trend
Edited on Tue Oct-21-03 07:47 PM by Beetwasher
No mixed signals at all, except from Gallup.

Gallup's got lot's of splainin' to do:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=534560

Another interesting thing I've noticed about these polls. You'll notice that most have an "I don't Know Column". Zogby get's rid of most of these by splitting into four groups instead and lump "fair" in w/ "poor". I contend these "I don't know's" are more inclined towards negative or would be considered "fair" by Zogby's reckoning because people just don't want to admit outright they think he's doing a piss poor job.
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. That Is So, Sir
"Undecided" generally breaks against an office-holder.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-21-03 09:05 PM
Response to Original message
16. When is this guy going to drop below 50?
I keep waiting. They keep saying his approval rating has dropped again, but it still seems to hover around 50.

The polls need to get real.
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