STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 1 December

Markets Weaken Amidst Positive Economic News

The markets received positive economic news with better than expected reports on third quarter GDP growth and from the Chicago Purchasing Managers, but the markets are fumbling around with little direction. In light of the good news, stock prices are mixed to lower along with the dollar and Treasury bonds. One would expect bond prices to move lower with the positive reports, but they haven’t done so with any conviction. Market participants seem to be more concerned about the flattening yield curve with the two-year note yielding 4.4%, the ten-year yield at 4.5% and all the way out to 30-year debt only yielding 4.7%. The bond market continues to depict a weakening economy while the economic reports and perpetual bulls on Wall Street brag about the resilience of the U.S. economy and American consumers.

The advance GDP report had growth at 3.8% while economists were expecting the number to come in at 4.0%, but the Commerce Department reported a 4.3% growth rate for all goods and services produced in the third quarter. The GDP price index rose at a 3% annual rate, but the Fed’s favored measure of inflation is the core rate (excluding food and energy) of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The Fed’s favored measurement of inflation came in at 1.2% versus their estimate of 1.3% last month and 1.7% for the second quarter. The government’s data says inflationary pressures are receding, but most market observers know the inflation numbers are continuously massaged lower. The headline PCE deflator was reported at 3.6% inflation which is closer to reality, but still understated.

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The consumer faces a number of headwinds such as rising interest rates, high energy costs, and wages struggling to keep up with inflation, but not to worry! In the GDP report personal consumption was revised from 3.9% to 4.2% and final sales to domestic buyers was revised from 4.1% to 4.7%. One commentator on CNBC today stated that Americans “are borrowing to consume…not borrowing to produce.” One must wonder how much longer these trends can be sustained.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

I saw Peter Schiff on that channel yesterday and he said something similar and flat-out said he didn't believe the government figures. I was somewhat stunned. I wonder if there are a lot of people who don't believe what the government puts out.

Cooking the books is a critical skill in reporting residual data from vacuous, malicious economic policy. Links to non-believers are posted here quite regularly. Steve Roach is among the best.

:donut: KayLaw, welcome. I don't know how long you have been lurking on the SW thread, but many of us have come to the conclusion that, for some time now, the economic news outlets have become like MSM. We do not get the truth from MSM and we don't get the truth from the economic media AND the gov. How many times do they go back and always quietly revise the number to something worse after the spotlight is off and the reporters are gone. And talk about cherry picking data....two blatant examples are the way they calculate inflation (they don't take into account food and fuel costs, even though consumers feel that in their wallets) and unemployment (the figures only take into account those that draw unemployment, not those who are still looking for work but draw no benefits because they have run through them). Things ARE worse than they are portrayed, and this administration in particular, has been fiscally irresponsible and destroyed our economic underpinnings. I can only hope that they receive the full credit for this disaster they are creating.

I have been listening to Mr. Schiff for almost a year now. He presents a very sober economics, emphasizing that the US economy is due for trouble under the basic premise that we are mortgaging our future to pay for our current excesses.

I found myself in a conundrum about a year back: what to invest in? Stocks & bonds seemed overvalued (if inflation is 4% by the gov't numbers & ~10% by everyday experience, a 4.5% 30-year return looks pretty bad). Cash looked weak, too; the Congress/Fed/President was/is/will be inflating the hell out of the dollar. Mr. Schiff presented two interesting alternatives: (1) conservative foreign investments; (2) commodities (oil/gold). The premise behind commodities as a viable investment is that they will rise naturally with inflation, given that there is no change on the demand side. Oil and gold are very different here, as the demand for oil would likely go down in a stagflating economy, while demand for gold would probably increase in a less productive economy (i.e. there is less of an opportunity cost for holding an inert metal if the average business returns less). Nevertheless, Schiff still recommends oil-investments, noting that declining US demand is likely to be offset by growing China, and that, in any case, the dollar is so overvalued that the tendencies for a lower oil price caused by a lessened demand are likely to be eclipsed by tendencies for a higher price by sheer inflation.

In any case, if you are interested in seeing some videos of Mr. Schiff, President of Euro-Pacific Capital, visit this link:

http://www.europac.net/video.asp

As I have said, I have been investing with him for about a year & am pleased with my return so-far, & even more pleased with his investing philosophy. His common sense is certainly not common.

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday after the U.S. government reported drops in crude and gasoline inventories last week.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was up one cent at $57.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in Asian electronic trading as of mid-afternoon in Singapore.

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Crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels to 317.6 million barrels in the week that ended Nov. 25 from the previous week, but remained 10.3 percent higher than a year ago, the U.S.
Department of Energy said Wednesday.

Gasoline inventories slipped 500,000 barrels to 199.9 million barrels, 5 percent below last year's levels, while distillate inventories grew 3.4 million barrels last week to 127.9 million barrels. That is 4.7 percent above year-ago levels, but in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

more

10:03am 12/01/05 JAN CRUDE CLIMBS 28C TO $57.60/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:03am 12/01/05 JAN NATURAL GAS UP 9.3C, OR 0.7%, AT $12.68/MLN BTUS

2:17pm 12/01/05 JAN NATURAL GAS UP 33.3C, OR 2.7%, AT $12.92/MLN BTUS

2:17pm 12/01/05 JAN CRUDE UP $1.33 TO $58.65/BRL AFTER 1-WK HIGH OF $58.80

2:56pm 12/01/05 JAN CRUDE CLOSES AT 1-WK HIGH OF $58.47/BRL, UP $1.15, OR 2%

2:56pm 12/01/05 JAN NATURAL GAS UP 44C, ENDS AT 2-WK HIGH OF $13.027/MLN BTU

2:56pm 12/01/05 JAN HEATING OIL UP 2.9%; JAN UNLEADED GAS ENDS UP 4.2%

10:31am 12/01/05 U.S. NATURAL GAS STKS DOWN 49 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 12/01/05 JAN NATURAL GAS UP 1.3% AT $12.76/MLN BTUS, A 2-WK HIGH

12:59pm 12/01/05 JAN NATURAL GAS UP 1.3C AT $12.60/MLN BTUS, OFF $12.80 HIGH

12:00 AM Auto Sales for Nov
Briefing Forecast 5.2M
Market Expects 5.3M
Prior 5.2M

12:00 AM Truck Sales for Nov
Briefing Forecast 7.2M
Market Expects 7.1M
Prior 6.2M

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/26
Briefing Forecast 320K
Market Expects 325K
Prior 335K

8:30 AM Personal Income for Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 1.7%

8:30 AM Personal Spending for Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.5%

10:00 AM Construction Spending for Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.5%

10:00 AM ISM Index for Nov
Briefing Forecast 59.0
Market Expects 58.0
Prior 59.1

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 24,000 TO 2.77 MLN

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 1,250 TO 322,500

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS BELOW 323,000 CONSENSUS

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 17,000 TO 320,000

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 1.8% IN PAST YEAR

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. WAGES, SALARY INCOME UP 0.6%

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. REAL SPENDING ON DURABLE GOODS DOWN 2.5%

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. REAL CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.1%

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. SAVINGS RATE -0.7% VS. -0.8% IN SEPT.

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. PERSONAL INCOMES UP 0.4% AS EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38687.3542378009-852873537&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. personal incomes and spending rose modestly in October while inflationary pressures eased, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Personal incomes increased 0.4% in October as expected, after rising 1.7% in September. Nominal spending increased 0.2% in October as expected. Real (inflation-adjusted) spending increased 0.1% in October, the first increase in three months. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in October after soaring 0.9% in September. The core personal consumption expenditure price index increased 0.1% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase down to 1.8%. With incomes rising faster than spending, the personal savings rate improved to negative 0.7% from negative 0.8%.

I guess that means folks are just eating their houses more slowly?

Here's the audio.

He says that we are up to our armpits in debt. We are about to be cut off without any choice in the matter. No more fun and games.

We'll have to see how much that splurge will cost the average shopper :D

I started my debt reduction plan last year. It has been rough and I have had plenty of hitches, but I have been cash and carry for 2 yrs now. You can live without credit cards and the debt that keeps you in chains. Do I still have debt-hell yes; but I have broke the cycle and am on my way out of the hole-never to return again.

10:02am 12/01/05 U.S. NOV. ISM JOBS 56.6% VS 55.0% IN OCT.

10:02am 12/01/05 U.S. NOV. ISM JOBS 56.6% VS 55.0% IN OCT.

10:02am 12/01/05 U.S. NOV. ISM PRICES 74.0% VS 84.0% IN OCT.

10:02am 12/01/05 U.S. NOV. ISM NEW ORDERS 59.8% VS 61.7% IN OCT.

10:00am 12/01/05 U.S. NOV. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX ABOVE 57.8% CONSENSUS

10:00am 12/01/05 U.S. NOV. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 58.1% VS 59.1% IN OCT.

10:00am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. PUBLIC-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 1.9%

10:00am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.6%

10:00am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. PRIVATE-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.3%

10:00am 12/01/05 U.S. OCT. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 0.7% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38687.5075878704-852899329&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. (F) on Thursday posted a 15% decline in November U.S. sales to 201,711 vehicles. Car sales fell 7% while truck sales declined 18%. Ford didn't adjust the numbers to reflect an extra selling day in November 2005. Sales advanced 1% from a month ago. SUV sales continued to plunge, with the Expedition seeing a 43% drop-off and the Explorer a 52% retreat. Ford also said it plans to build 790,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down 20,000 units from the previously announced target.

12:09pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. FORD F-SERIES TRUCK SALES DOWN 5% VS YR AGO

12:07pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. VOLVO SALES DOWN 25.8% VS YR AGO

12:08pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. LAND ROVER SALES UP 18% VS YR AGO

12:06pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. LINCOLN SALES DOWN 15.3% VS YR AGO

12:05pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. JAGUAR SALES DOWN 40.7% VS YR AGO

12:04pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. TRUCK SALES DOWN 18% VS YR AGO

12:03pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. SALES DOWN 15% VS YR AGO

12:04pm 12/01/05 FORD: NOV. U.S. CAR SALES DOWN 7% VS YR AGO

12:34pm 12/01/05 AUDI OF AMERICA NOV. U.S. SALES 7,909 VS 6,879 UNITS

12:33pm 12/01/05 AUDI OF AMERICA NOV. U.S. SALES UP 15% VS. YR AGO

12:54pm 12/01/05 NISSAN NOV. U.S. TRUCK SALES DOWN 10.2% AT 39,218

12:55pm 12/01/05 NISSAN NOV. U.S. CAR SALES DOWN 5.2% AT 37,994

12:53pm 12/01/05 NISSAN NOV. U.S. TOTAL VEHICLE SALES 77,212 VS 80,376

12:52pm 12/01/05 NISSAN NOV. U.S. INFINITI DIVISION SALES DOWN 14.1%

12:51pm 12/01/05 NISSAN NOV. U.S. TOTAL SALES DOWN 7.8%

An exaggeration: but it appears that they lose marketshare in the double-digits each month.

1:03pm 12/01/05 TOYOTA DIVISION NOV. U.S. SALES RISE 5.2% FROM A YEAR AGO

1:03pm 12/01/05 MAZDA NOV. N.A. TOTAL SALES UP 1%

1:02pm 12/01/05 TOYOTA NOV. U.S. SALES RISE 5.6% FROM A YEAR AGO

1:51pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. SATURN BRAND SALES UP 12% VS YR AGO

1:52pm 12/01/05 GM: 25 SELLING DAYS IN NOV. 2005 VS 24 DAYS IN NOV. 2004

1:51pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. PONTIAC BRAND SALES UP 10.7% VS YR AGO

1:51pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. SAAB BRAND SALES DOWN 18.1% VS YR AGO

1:49pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. HUMMER BRAND SALES UP 113.6% VS YR AGO

1:50pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. OLDSMOBILE BRAND SALES DOWN 90.8% VS YR AGO

1:48pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. CHEVROLET BRAND SALES DOWN 13.4% VS YR AGO

1:49pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. GMC BRAND SALES DOWN 27.4% VS YR AGO

1:48pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. BUICK BRAND SALES DOWN 5.8% VS YR AGO

1:48pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. CADILLAC BRAND SALES DOWN 24.8% VS YR AGO

1:46pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. SALES DOWN 11% VS YR AGO

1:46pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. CAR SALES DOWN 3% VS YR AGO

1:47pm 12/01/05 GM NOV. U.S. TRUCK SALES DOWN 16% VS YR AGO

2:17pm 12/01/05 SUZUKI NOV. U.S. SALES UP 14% VS YR AGO

2:12pm 12/01/05 AMERICAN HONDA NOV. U.S. ACURA DIVISION SALES DOWN 14.2%

2:10pm 12/01/05 AMERICAN HONDA NOV. U.S. CIVIC SALES UP 18%

2:11pm 12/01/05 AMERICAN HONDA NOV. U.S. ACCORD SALES DOWN 3.4%

2:09pm 12/01/05 AMERICAN HONDA NOV. U.S. TOTAL TRUCK SALES UP 9.6%

2:09pm 12/01/05 AMERICAN HONDA NOV. U.S. TOTAL CAR SALES UP 3.9%

2:07pm 12/01/05 AMERICAN HONDA NOV. U.S. TOTAL SALES UP 6.4% VS YR AGO

2:08pm 12/01/05 AMERICAN HONDA NOV. U.S. TOTAL SALES 105,860 VS 98,075

3:03pm 12/01/05 MITSUBISHI MOTORS N.A. NOV. SALES RISE 7.2%

3:38pm 12/01/05 HYUNDAI NOV. U.S. SONATA SALES UP 116.8% VS YR AGO

3:37pm 12/01/05 HYUNDAI NOV. U.S. SONATA SALES 14,216 VS 6,557

3:36pm 12/01/05 HYUNDAI NOV. U.S. TOTAL SALES UP 12.5% VS YR AGO

3:36pm 12/01/05 HYUNDAI NOV. U.S. TOTAL SALES UP 33,383 VS 29,682

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.72 Change +0.15 (+0.16%)

Dollar Loses Control Of Price Action

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5187&Itemid=39

Trader’s Corner:
As a trader, one of the lessons I learned the hard way is to not overtrade. Overtrading will lead to a substantial loss, because every time the trader enters the market, he or she exposes the capital to the market, because an increased number of trades will not instantly translate into profits and may increase the amount of losses the trader will sustain. Also with an increased amount of trading activity, comes an increased amount of execution cost, which includes spread, commissions and slippage. The most common misconception amongst the novice traders is that the trader has to be constantly in the market, but by being in the market all the time the trader does not give him or herself a chance to pause and will eventually lose because of the unfavorable market conditions. There are times when I trade, and there are times when I stay out, because if I don’t see any trades I will not trade. Trading out of boredom is the worst reason to be in the market. Patience, patience, patience. Patience is one of the keys to becoming successful trader, patience will keep the trader from overtrading and by being patient a trader has enough time to observe and look for a potential setup for the next trade. Remember it’s not the quantity of trades, but the quality of a trade. Please feel free to email me at sshenker@fxcm.com with your comments.

<snip>

EUR/USD – The Euro continued to consolidate following the inability of the dollar longs to gain momentum below the 1.1700 handle earlier this week, a level defended by the November 28 daily low at 1.1682. However a rejection of the 1.1863, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally, puts both sides at disadvantage as choppy trading conditions continue to persist. Until a breakout from 1.1863-1.1700 consolidation range, there will be no clear momentum in either direction, but given the failure by the Euro longs to push the pair above 1.1900 and swift retaliation of the greenback bulls the price action continues to have a downward bias. Indicators are diverging with positive momentum indicator above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

...more...

Bally Total Fitness says uncertain of future

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-30T232408Z_01_N30280982_RTRIDST_0_LEISURE-BALLYTOTALFITNESS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Bally Total Fitness (BFT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday restated its net losses for fiscal 2002 and 2003 and said it may not have enough cash to keep operating.

In a regulatory filing, the largest U.S. fitness center operator said it may not have enough cash to continue to operate through 2007 and was uncertain whether it could raise more cash under its current credit facility to meet its capital needs.

"We are uncertain of our ability to obtain additional financing for our future capital needs," said Bally in the filing. "If we are unable to obtain additional financing, we may not be able to continue to operate our business."

Several investment funds have built up stakes in Bally and some of them have called for big changes at the company.

...more...

6:53pm 11/30/05 BALLY FITNESS '04 REV $1.05B

6:52pm 11/30/05 BALLY FITNESS '04 NET LOSS 92C

6:50pm 11/30/05 BALLY FITNESS TO EXPLORE STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES

6:48pm 11/30/05 BALLY FITNESS '02 NET LOSS RESTATED $3.14 VS 34C

6:47pm 11/30/05 CORRECT: BALLY FITNESS RESTATES '03 NET LOSS OF $3.24/SHR

6:37pm 11/30/05 BALLY FITNESS Q3 NET LOSS 5C

6:38pm 11/30/05 BALLY FITNESS Q3 REV $261.8M

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-01T160511Z_01_WBT004314_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday it will sell $18 billion of three-month bills and $16 billion of six-month bills on Monday, Dec. 5.

The bills will be issued on Thursday, Dec. 8.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund an estimated $31.91 billion of publicly held 13- and 26-week bills maturing Dec. 8 and to raise about $2.09 billion of new cash.

The three-month bills mature on March 9, 2006, while the six-month bills mature on June 8.

Treasury said $5.10 billion of the three-month bills can be excluded when bidders calculate their net long positions. The net long reporting threshold for the three-month bills is $6.30 billion and for the six-month bills it is $5.60 billion.

...more...


The estimated population of the United States is 297,857,167
so each citizen's share of this debt is $27,220.00.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$2.82 billion per day since September 30, 2005

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-01T183928Z_01_WBT004317_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury is considering using a bond-for-bond transaction structure similar to the Federal Reserve's for a proposed securities lending facility aimed at avoiding disruptions in repurchase markets, a Treasury official said on Thursday.

A bond-for-bond transaction structure would allow for better cash management by the Treasury, Treasury Debt Management Director Jeff Huther said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Bond Market Association in New York.

"Our proposal to create a securities lender-of-last-resort facility stems from our recognition that availability of supply in the financing market is as important as certainty of supply in the primary market for meeting our goal of least-cost financing over time," Huther said.

Treasury distributed Huther's remarks to reporters in Washington.

Is this more of that "monetizing the debt"?

9:02am 12/01/05 HOUSING PRICE APPRECIATION EASES FROM 13.4% IN 2Q

9:02am 12/01/05 U.S. HOME PRICES ROSE 12% IN PAST YEAR: OFHEO

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38687.383612037-852878570&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Price appreciation of U.S. homes eased in the third quarter but remained strong, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Thursday. Average prices rose 2.9% in the third quarter. Average prices have increased 12% year-over-year, down from 13.4% in the second quarter, which was a 25-year high. "Appreciation rates in the third quarter were extremely strong, although some deceleration can be seen in a number of the faster-appreciating markets," said OFHEO chief economist Patrick Lawler. "Price momentum in the Pacific and New England states, in particular, has pulled back." Prices are up 17.3% in the Pacific region, 16.9% in the South Atlantic and 16.2% in the Mountain region.

9:31
Dow 10,851.34 +45.47 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,246.13 +13.31 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,254.39 +4.91 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 44.72 -0.28 (-0.62%)
NYSE Volume 46,880,000
Nasdaq Volume 61,720,000

Dow 10,870.39 +64.52 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,247.38 +14.56 (+0.65%)
S&P 500 1,256.18 +6.70 (+0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 4.472 -0.28 (-0.62%)

NYSE Volume 62,687,000
Nasdaq Volume 70,389,000

9:40am 12/01/05 DEC GOLD CLIMBS $3.80 TO $498.40/OZ AFTER $498.90 HIGH

9:40am 12/01/05 DEC COPPER UP 1.7C AT $2.092/LB AFTER RECORD $2.105

10:04am 12/01/05 DEC GOLD TRADES AT $499.80/OZ, UP $5.20

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38687.4282614005-852886493&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold rose $5.40, or 1.1%, to trade at $500 an ounce Thursday morning. That's the first time a front-month contract has reached that level since December 1987. Prior to today's regular session, the contract has only managed to reach the $500 level in overnight trading.

10:10am 12/01/05 DEC GOLD HITS $500 IN REGULAR TRADE, 1ST TIME SINCE 1987

10:10am 12/01/05 DEC GOLD TRADES AT $500/OZ, UP $5.40 IN NY

10:29am 12/01/05 DEC GOLD CLIMBS $7.40, OR 1.5%, TO TRADE AT $502/OZ

1:48pm 12/01/05 DEC COPPER CLOSES AT A RECORD $2.168/LB, UP 9.3C, OR 4.5%

1:48pm 12/01/05 DEC SILVER UP 2.6% AT $8.499/OZ, HIGHEST CLOSE SINCE 1987

1:48pm 12/01/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT 18-YEAR HIGH OF $502.50/OZ, UP $7.90

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38687.5805463889-852911056&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold rose $7.90 to close at $502.50 an ounce to mark the first futures close above the key $500 level since December 1987. December silver climbed 21.9 cents, or 2.6%, to finish at $8.499 an ounce, the highest futures close since May 1987. And December copper jumped 4.5% to close at a record $2.168 a pound. Metals prices have benefited, in part, from inflation concerns and strong physical demand worldwide.

Now why would anyone have "inflation concerns" - The Fed has that under "control"!

(continuing the thread from yesterday)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=acbmyg83_H_s&refer=us

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Republicans hoped that a raft of scandals involving their party's lawmakers and the White House would fade from view before the 2006 elections. Then along came Randy ``Duke'' Cunningham and Michael Scanlon.

Cunningham, the California congressman who resigned this week after admitting that he took $2.4 million in bribes, and Scanlon, a former colleague of indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff who pleaded guilty last week to conspiring to corrupt public officials, are the latest examples of what Democrats call ``the culture of corruption'' in Washington -- and what they hope will propel them to victory at the polls next year.

``This is not something that's going to go away soon or can be written off as one bad apple,'' said Amy Walter, House editor of the Washington-based Cook Political Report, which analyzes congressional races.

<snip>

The cases that concern him and others include the White House as well as Capitol Hill. Vice President Dick Cheney's top aide, I. Lewis Libby, was indicted on perjury charges in October. DeLay, a Texas Republican, stepped down from his leadership post in September after being indicted in his home state of Texas in a campaign-fundraising abuse case.

In September, the Securities and Exchange Commission authorized a formal investigation of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's sale of shares of HCA Inc., a Nashville, Tennessee-based hospital chain. Frist's HCA shares, held in a Senate-approved blind trust, were sold shortly before the company issued an earnings estimate that failed to meet analysts' forecasts.

``There isn't a week that goes by that the Republicans aren't involved in an arraignment, an arrest, a subpoena or an indictment,'' said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat.

...more...

Dow 10,883.66 +77.79 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,257.32 +24.50 (+1.10%)
S&P 500 1,259.48 +10.00 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 4.472 -0.28 (-0.62%)

NYSE Volume 470,650,000
Nasdaq Volume 428,214,000

10:05AM: Major averages continue to strengthen, getting an additional boost following an upbeat read on national manufacturing activity. Nov. ISM Index came in at a better than expected 58.1, showing continued expansion, while the prices paid component checked in at 74. That was below an estimate of 78 and October's nosebleed 84 level, easing inflation concerns spawned yesterday by the same indicator in the Chicago PMI report.NYSE Adv/Dec 2086/632, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1762/751

9:40AM: Market rebounds sharply following three days of consolidation, as solid Nov. retail sales and the beginning of the best month for blue chips incite broad-based buying interest. An average 1.7% gain on the S&P in December over the last 55 years, added to the index's 3.1% year-to-date gain, bodes well for our year-end forecast of a 5.0% gain for the S&P. Perhaps also providing some strong support for stocks is anticipation of new fund inflows, as the first trading day of the month typically lifts underlying sentiment. Separately, investors will get the day's last round of economic data with the 10:00 ET release of Nov. ISM Index (consensus 58.0) and Oct. Construction Spending (consensus +0.5%).

Dow 10,902.50 +96.63 (+0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,260.05 +27.23 (+1.22%)
S&P 500 1,261.62 +12.14 (+0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 4.523 +0.23 (+0.51%)

NYSE Volume 1,094,673,000
Nasdaq Volume 916,444,000

12:00PM : Market is holding steady at sharply higher levels midday, as retail sales, tame inflation data and the beginning of the best month for blue chips incite broad-based buying efforts. Nov. same-store sales, while not exactly overwhelming but still consistent with a good holiday selling period, have helped revive some of the momentum that helped the three major indices average a 4.1% gain last month. Perhaps the fear of missing out on a year-end rally that has historically lifted the S&P 500 1.7% in December over the last 55 years -- a move that would put the S&P on pace to meet Briefing.com's year-end forecast of a 5.0% gain -- has also renewed buying interest following three days of consolidation. Anticipation of new fund inflows on the first trading day of the month has conceivably helped improve underlying sentiment as well as some conviction (higher than usual volumes) behind the day's rally which has kept every economic sector in positive territory. Pacing the way higher has been Technology, benefiting from follow-through buying in chip stocks which sent the semi index up 11.3% in November. Despite recent weakness in Treasuries, which has lifted the yield (4.53%) on the 10-yr note (-13/32) for a third straight day, the rate sensitive Financial sector has been resilient as banks, brokers and insurance names have all been strong. Bonds initially showed relative strength following a modest 0.1% rise in the PCE price index which left the core PCE -- Greenspan's favorite inflation indicator -- at 1.8% year/year growth. A rebound in autos ahead of monthly sales results, strength in homebuilders (amid a strong read on Oct. construction spending) and a recent turnaround in retail have helped Consumer Discretionary pare some of its year-to-date 6.5% decline. Energy's leadership has also been notable while Industrials have benefited from a rebound in the national ISM manufacturing index and a slew of analyst upgrades have lent support to the Materials sector. DJTA +1.1, DJUA +0.4, DOT +1.6, Nasdaq 100 +1.4, Russell 2000 +1.3, SOX +3.1, S&P Midcap 400 +1.1, XOI +2.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 2386/733, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1992/876

11:30AM: Little changed since the last update as buying remains widespread across most areas. Bonds, however, continue to deteriorate, as a 9-tick decline in the 10-yr has lifted the yield on the benchmark note to 4.52%, a level not reached since Nov. 17. While bonds caught a bid after the Commerce Dept. showed a modest 0.1% rise in the PCE price index which left the core PCE -- Greenspan's favorite inflation indicator -- at 1.8% year/year growth, technical trading ahead of tomorrow's payrolls data and some selling out of Europe has since weakened demand for Treasuries.NYSE Adv/Dec 2397/658, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2008/811

11:00AM: Market continues to sport solid gains, even as oil prices hit session highs following a decline in weekly natural gas inventories. Crude oil prices, which were off slightly early on, are now up more than 1.0% at $58/bbl (+$0.68). Nonetheless, investors appear to be taking a bullish cue from Energy's leadership (+1.8%) as opposed to a rebound in energy prices raising any unjustifiable inflation red flags. XOI +2.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 2290/705, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1856/880

Dow 10,908.57 +102.70 (+0.95%)
Nasdaq 2,262.67 +29.85 (+1.34%)
S&P 500 1,262.53 +13.05 (+1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 45.27 +0.27 (+0.60%)
NYSE Volume 1,251,983,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,035,603,000

12:30PM: Indices extend their reach to the upside, spearheaded by continued momentum in Technology, as the afternoon trading session gets underway. Providing much of the support behind the tech sector extending its year-to-date gain to nearly 5.0% has been a new 3 1/2-yr high on the PHLX Semi Index. All 19 of the index's components have posted gains of at least 1.5%. SOX +3.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2424/746, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2010/911

1:00
Dow 10,915.93 +110.06 (+1.02%)
Nasdaq 2,265.84 +33.02 (+1.48%)
S&P 500 1,263.90 +14.42 (+1.15%)
10-Yr Bond 45.33 +0.33 (+0.73%)
NYSE Volume 1,344,897,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,116,359,000

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-01T181121Z_01_WAT004507_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-BANKS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S. bank regulators intend to propose guidance on non-traditional mortgage products by the end of the month because of risks associated with a softening housing market, Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said on Thursday.

"Are lenders really prepared to deal with the consequences -- including litigation risk -- of providing such products in markets where real estate prices soften or decline, or where interest rates substantially increase?" Dugan said in text prepared for delivery to the Consumer Federation of America.

Sounds like the banks should get ready to have the shit sued out of them. :eyes:

that get caught being upside down on a loan in a soft real estate market of lose their job just as the ARM adjustes higher. We saw a bunch of that in our RE bust in the 80's.

1:17pm 12/01/05 INDIANAPOLIS MOST AFFORDABLE HOUSING, LA LEAST AFFORDABLE

1:17pm 12/01/05 U.S. 3Q HOME OPPORTUNITY INDEX FALLS TO 43.2% VS. 45.9%

Dow 10,907.45 +101.58 (+0.94%)
Nasdaq 2,263.83 +31.01 (+1.39%)
S&P 500 1,263.87 +14.39 (+1.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.525 +0.25 (+0.56%)

NYSE Volume 1,793,376,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,474,706,000

2:30PM: Positive breadth figures and strong industry leadership to the upside continue to bode well for equities. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers outpace decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq by a more than 2-to-1 margin. Perhaps providing even more conviction behind today's broad-based rally has been above average volume, as the total number of shares exchanging hands on the Big Board and Composite surpassed 1.0 bln over an hour ago. NYSE Adv/Dec 2518/738, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2109/920

2:00PM: Blue chip indices continue to put together a strong advance following a sell-off yesterday that was largely attributed to a 4.8% drubbing in General Motors (GM 22.56 +0.66), which closed down nearly 19% in November. The auto maker today, however, has been the Dow's third best performer, spiking another 1.5% within the last 15 minutes after reporting a smaller than expected 11.0% decline in Nov sales (consensus -13%). With regard to the Consumer Discretionary sector, GM's strength has also helped offset weakness from rival Ford Motor (F 8.05 -0.08), which reported a slightly larger than expected 14.8% decline in monthly sales. NYSE Adv/Dec 2540/703, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2138/870

1:30PM: Stocks continue to hold their own and sport substantial gains for the day. Of the ten economic sectors, Energy now leads the way, as ExxonMobil (XOM 59.09 +1.06), the S&P's most influential component, is trading near session highs while Valero Energy (VLO 99.50 +3.30), getting an extra boost after management approved a 2-for-1 stock split., has helped the refiners index extend its year-to-date leading 73.0% gain. ..XOI +2.4%. ..OIX +2.3%. ..OSX +2.3%. ..OIH +2.5%. NYSE Adv/Dec 2487/729, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2087/886

:crazy:

Oh My! Is their conflict of interest showing?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-01T194607Z_01_WBT004319_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-ECONOMY-CEA-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A White House report forecasting a 3.4 percent U.S. economic growth rate for 2006 was prepared without the involvement of Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Ben Bernanke, a government official said on Thursday.

The CEA chairman normally takes the lead in developing such administration forecasts but Matthew Slaughter, a member of the CEA, said Bernanke recused himself "given his pending nomination to the Federal Reserve Board."

Bernanke was nominated by Bush in October to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. The nomination still awaits approval by the full Senate, although the Senate Banking Committee has given Bernanke its backing.

Dow 10,922.82 +116.95 (+1.08%)
Nasdaq 2,268.49 +35.67 (+1.60%)
S&P 500 1,265.50 +16.02 (+1.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.521 +0.21 (+0.47%)

NYSE Volume 1,971,023,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,622,451,000

3:00PM: Sellers remain a reluctant bunch as the market shows no signs of slowing heading into the final hour of trading. Meanwhile, the entire energy complex has recently closed, with crude (+1.9%), gasoline (+4.4%) and heating oil (+2.8%) finishing near session highs. Fortunately for the bulls, the speculation of a possible Nor'easter that ignited massive short-covering in energy futures has done little to dampen investors' spirits, as many have embraced the leadership from a sector (Energy +34% year to date) that continues to provide the bulk of growth for the S&P 500. NYSE Adv/Dec 2505/769, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2158/902

A running of the bonus bulls in progress :eyes:

Such a waste of a copy. Should have sent it to ME!

Goodnight all. :hi:

Dow 10,912.57 +106.70 (+0.99%)
Nasdaq 2,267.17 +34.35 (+1.54%)
S&P 500 1,264.67 +15.19 (+1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 45.21 +0.21 (+0.47%)
NYSE Volume 2,571,696,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,066,853,000

Fear of missing out on a year-end rally, coupled with benign inflation data and decent retail sales led to broad-based jubilation, as every sector rang in day one of December with a gain. Before the bell, reports that showed modest increases in consumer spending and income, without triggering inflationary pressures, underpinned a favorable bias. While anticipation of new fund inflows on the first trading day of the month conceivably helped improve underlying sentiment following three days of consolidation, above average volumes definitely provided some need conviction behind an average 4.1% gain for the three major indices in November. As a reminder, December has been the best month for the S&P 500, turning in an average 1.7% gain. Should history repeat itself, the broader market would finish 2005 with the 5.0% gain Briefing.com forecasted last January. With regard to sector leadership, Energy paced the way higher as a 1.9% surge in oil prices helped refiners extend their year-to-date gain to more than 75%. Despite strength in the greenback, which typically makes dollar-denominated commodities less attractive, a plethora of analyst upgrades on leading metals producers (as well as a surge in gold and copper futures) helped the Materials sector turn in the day's second best performance. The dollar rallied against the euro after the ECB raised rates for the first time in five years 1/4% to 2.25%. Providing more upside leadership, however, was Technology, as continued momentum lifted the PHLX Semiconductor Index to its best levels in 3 1/2 years. The Industrials sector also surged more than 1.0%, benefitting from a rebound in the national ISM manufacturing index. Even though Treasuries closed near session lows, lifting the yield on the 10-yr note (-07/32) to its highest level (4.51%) in two weeks, alleviated worries of further monetary tightening helped the rate-sensitive Financial sector also provide leadership. While retail sales topped the day's headlines, helping Consumer Discretionary trim some of its -5.4% year-to-date disappointment, a rebound in General Motors (GM 22.60 +0.70), following a smaller than expected 11.0% decline in Nov sales, as well as strength in homebuilders, following a strong read on Oct construction spending, were other sources of support. Nov. same-store sales from more than 60 retailers were still consistent with a good holiday selling period but not exactly overwhelming. Wal-Mart (WMT 48.03 -0.53) posted a 4.3% jump in Nov. sales but narrowed its Dec. sales outlook while rival Target (TGT 53.80 +0.29) missed forecasts but predicted a stronger December. Separately, initial jobless claims fell to 320K, about as expected, reflecting a strong labor market; however, since the data were compiled after the week in which the Nov. employment survey was taken, the report had little impact on trading ahead of tomorrow's more influential employment report.DJTA +1.1, DJUA +0.8, DOT +2.0, Nasdaq 100 +1.9, Russell 2000 +1.9, SOX +4.2, S&P Midcap 400 +1.6, XOI +3.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 2525/787, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2152/936