Tropical Storm Alberto Heading For Gulf Coast - Storm Tracking Thread #1

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200601_model.html



See also..
Full coverage form Weather Underground
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

And for expert discussion. Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog "Alberto is here!"
Well, I'm back to blogging on the hurricane season of 2006 earlier than I had hoped. We managed to put together a string of nine straight days without an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic this hurricane season, but now that streak has come to an end with the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto. I scheduled my summer vacation for the period I though most likely to have ten straight days without tropical activity, but the tropics had other ideas.

Alberto is a fairly typical-looking June tropical storm. The satellite presentation is not very impressive this morning, with most of the deep convection lying to the east of the exposed center. Strong westerly winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are removing the deep convection from the center. This wind shear is creating a very hostile environment for Alberto to survive in, let alone strengthen. With the shear forecast to strengthen, I would not be surprised to see Alberto ripped apart tonight. If this scenario does occur, the low level swirl of clouds associated with Alberto's core will drift into the center of the Gulf of Mexico and gradually decay. The main moisture to the east of the center will separate and get pulled across Florida. If Alberto manages to survive, a strong trough of low pressure moving over the Eastern U.S. will recurve the storm over Central and Northern Florida, where Alberto will rapidly lose tropical characteristics and become a very rainy low pressure system. Alberto currently has tropical storm force winds of 40-45 mph in a very small area to the northeast of the center. The central pressure has actually risen 2 mb to 1004 mb since 7 am EDT this morning, proving that this is not a healthy tropical storm. I give Alberto a less than 5% chance of making hurricane status. It is far more likely (40% chance) that Alberto will get torn apart by high wind shear before making landfall on Florida's west coast. The most likely scenario is that Alberto will hit the west coast of Florida as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds of 40 - 50 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Seventh Official NHWC Bulletin follows..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204535.shtml?5day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0106W5_sm2+gif/204535W_sm.gif

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion
For Discussion Archive see... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/refresh/ALBERTO+shtml/235402.shtml?
000
WTNT41 KNHC 112031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AGAIN MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 50 KT...BUT IN A BAND THAT WAS EVEN
FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN IN THE EARLIER PASS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISPLACED
FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE AT THE MOMENT. BECAUSE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND DATA FROM THE NEXT MISSION OF THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS AROUND 0000 UTC COULD CONFIRM THIS
SUSPICION. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ALBERTO. EVEN
SO...THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE DO PREDICT SOME STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE LESS THAN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER.
THE FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED. ASSUMING THAT ALBERTO IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER VERTICALLY...A DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL...SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS FLORIDA. THE
GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT
SPREADS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A NON-TROPICAL-LOOKING AMPLIFICATION
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DIVERGENCE
IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN
BANDS AS MUCH AS 200 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH COULD REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON THIS
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 24.5N 87.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 25.4N 87.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 27.8N 85.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 77.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1800Z 39.0N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 46.0N 54.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

This is a big wake up call to New Orleans... are you ready down there?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060611/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather_28

I just heard... this trun into Hurrican now. CAT 1

be hurricane"

.. at present the forecast is very variable.... as you can see in the computer model forecast at the top. NHWC though thinks it is going to dissipate at this stage without getting very dangerous wind wise....

There is already lots of rain falling over the sea.... and rain on land could cause flooding.

"TAMPA, Fla. - Most of Florida's west coast was under a hurricane watch Sunday as Tropical Storm Alberto spun over the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to bring heavy rain in the next few days."


Bullshit.

We are NOT under a hurricane watch. We are under a Tropical Storm Watch. Highest winds are expected to be 45 mph at landfall, well below hurricane force.

meteorologist (commercial pilot for 40+ years and taught meteorology in various ground schools & ANG eons ago)

The local TV talking heads all have incentive to bring their ratings (and pay) up, so they bloviate right up to the maximum allowable point. It's the local version of "TERROR TERROR"...anything to gyrate the hormones of local couch potatos. In hopes of improving ratings.

Feh.

"Hurricane aircraft reconnaissance on Monday showed that Alberto had almost reached hurricane strength, with winds of nearly 70 mph. The storm evolved from a tropical depression that formed in the northwestern Caribbean on Saturday. It then drew strength from the warm waters of the "loop current" in the Gulf of Mexico."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/12/AR2006061200531.html

I'd like to see a track over Atlanta and extreme NE Georgia. That would give north Georgia and the upstate of SC some desperately needed rain. We had a teaser in Greenville, SC, today with a severe thunderstorm warning. It delayed Dr. D's flight out of GSP for an hour, but nary a drop of rain on our parched neighborhood in SE Greenville. The dirty side of a tropical depression might bring us back up toward "normal," with minimum damage.

The GFDL (red line) model would help. But, I know, be careful what you wish for.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0106W5_sm2+gif/204535W_sm.gif

in Raleigh, NC.

Hope you get it. Many do not realize the depth of the drought in the SE.

you may get rain from the outer bands.

The grass is turning brown and my tomato plants are really thirsty!

and not a lot of other nasty stuff.

We are 8 inches below our average rainfall for this time of year. There was a 45 acre forest fire 5 miles north of my house last week. This storm could set us back to right and get the threat of fire reduced. It's been really bad.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2333844&mesg_id=2334032

And aside from that, I've got a deep and abiding respect for spinoff tornados. *shudder*

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1150093909-HAFT21US.TXT.html.en

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-01A/
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
Current Position
25.3°N 87.7°W

WTNT21 KNHC 120230
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0300Z MON JUN 12 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.6N 87.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.9N 85.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 84.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.1N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 40.0N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 46.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 87.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

----------------------
So far Alberto looks like a Tropical Storm.
They can still do damgage though, but not as bad as a Cat III Hurricane!
I hope it isn't heading up to the north east! We can't handle anymore rain!
We broke a record in Massachusetts for the most rainfall in a two month period!
Close to 19 inches and we're experiencing mudslides and flooding everywhere!
And it's only June 11th!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=RER&node=KBOX
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 412 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

...RECORD RAINFALL TOTAL FOR ANY MAY-JUNE TWO MONTH COMBINATION IN BOSTON...

TODAYS 6/8/06 RAINFALL THROUGH 4PM AT BOSTONS LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 0.20 INCH.
THIS BRINGS THE JUNE 2006 TOTAL TO 5.95 INCHES.

THE MAY 2006 RAINFALL TOTAL WAS 12.48 INCHES OR SECOND WETTEST ON RECORD.

THE LAST 39 DAYS HAS BROUGHT A COMBINED TOTAL OF 18.43 INCHES.
THIS TOTAL BEATS ANY MAY-JUNE TWO MONTH RAINFALL COMBINATION ON RECORD.

THE PREVIOUS MAY-JUNE COMBINATION RECORD WAS SET MAY-JUNE 1998 WHEN 18.42 INCHES ACCUMULATED.

THE GREATEST RAINFALL FOR ANY TWO MONTH COMBINATION OCCURRED JULY-AUGUST 1955 WHEN 21.37 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATED...
THANKS MOSTLY TO TROPICAL STORM DIANNE AUGUST 18-19 1955 WHICH DUMPED 11.94 INCHES.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN BOSTON ON FRIDAY.

-------------------

SOUTH SHORE WOES: Sewage, mudslides;
Up to 6 inches falls on region (in one day!)
By The Patriot Ledger staff
http://www.patriotledger.com/articles/2006/06/08/news/news03.txt


NO MORE RAIN!!!!!!!!

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

DATA FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
OVERALL STRUCTURE. SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MEAN CENTER...
AND THE ADVISORY POSITION IS THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN THOSE SWIRLS. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LAST RECON POSITION AT
12/0143Z... AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTROID OF THE LARGE SURFACE
PRESSURE ENVELOPE. THE 40-KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE RECON AIRCRAFT MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED STRONGER WINDS TO THE
EAST OF THE FLIGHT TRACK WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

UPPER-AIR DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ERODED AND LIFTED
NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALSO
SHIFTED NORTHWARD BUT HAS REMAINED INTACT ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
TO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW...HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ACROSS THE
CYCLONE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THAT SHOULD ACT
TO TURN ALBERTO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL ONCE
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVERCOMPENSATING FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR AS IT
TAKES THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA... AS DOES THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE BY 36H. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW PATTERN AFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH KEEPS ALBERTO SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND IN THE DIVERGENT RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT.

ONCE ALBERTO TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE 24-36H TIME FRAME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL... BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 25.3N 87.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 87.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 27.9N 85.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 28.7N 84.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 30.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z 40.0N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0000Z 46.0N 52.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

emergencies. She's new at this. She said she has been to a prep meeting recently and they are expecting a really bad hurricane to hit the east US/Atlantic coast this year, as well as a very busy season. The good news is that it sounds like they have learned alot from prior mistakes and hope to be in position alot sooner for these disasters.

Ain't no certainty about Alberto...

then it came together.

Hopefully, where ever it goes it will bring some much needed rain.

I can't believe that anyone is even very concerned about this storm. We get summer squalls that are more impressive.

Damn.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2333844&mesg_id=2334032

That being said, I'm also not the Chicken Little type either. Prepared Fatalist perhaps? ;)

Right now it's just dreary and raining, which is great. My garden is much happier at the moment.

I can't complain about this part of it. Though being cooped up inside with three antsy kids hasn't been fun. But I'll endure that for decreased brush fire risk any time.

... handing out preemptive no-bid contracts and cash to their cronies?

and they've got to make Jeb look good.

... use all Latino names this hurricane season, to whip-up more outrage over the immigration "issue"?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

"Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center. They are now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization."

Note that the Nogaps and Ships model now have Alberto hitting the coast 1knot under Hurricane Strength.... the official forecast is more mild than however.


000
WTNT41 KNHC 120914
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

ALTHOUGH THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH ALBERTO NEAR
05Z FOUND ONLY A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MINIMUM OF 1006 MB
AND NO CLEAR CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND BUILT WESTWARD AGAINST THE
SHEAR...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT A CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
CONVECTION. A DROPSONDE ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION REPORTED 40
KT AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z...AND THE PRESSURE AT BUOY 42003 HAS
FALLEN TO 1002.9 MB. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT THREE HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/7. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF ALBERTO...WHICH IS STILL EMBEDDED
IN A ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH DROP AN UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF THAT
BACKS THE FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST.

NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY...BUT IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE
CORRECT IT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DICTATES A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 26.2N 87.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 27.1N 86.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 28.1N 85.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 83.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 35.0N 73.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0600Z 46.5N 52.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

we need the rain badly here in the panhandle. Come on baby, head North!

10:35 AM Update - Hurricane Warnings Issued
Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from Longboat Key (North of Sarasota) northward to the Ochlockonee River (South of Tallahassee) -- This includes the Tampa Bay/St. Pete area., Alberto is not a Hurricane yet, but may be upgraded later. Winds are now at 70MPH, just under Hurricane force.

within last 1/2 hour ago. Is this true?

Anything can happen so that's why the warnings were issued. Hurricane warnings can be issued even before a storm has been officially re-graded. Make sense?

I heard on the TV news (local), they were saying, this storm will reach CAT 1 before the landfall and it looks like they were right! I posted this yesterday and I was creamed by few people.

That's why they call it 'weather forecasting' not 'weather predicting'...these things have a life of their own.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0106W_sm2+gif/144536W_sm.gif

Ed., for those not familiar with these things: Even a CAT 1 is very, terribly beautifully, powerful (we were surprised by something less powerful in the Canary Islands at the end of last season. And she was impressive).

Later, I'll look up and translate some of the history I read a while ago, in late-medieval Spanish, on the first year's experiences of the 'first' Europeans in the Americas (Isla de Hispaniola, today Santo Domingo-Haiti). The word 'Hurricane' - (Spanish: Hurracán) - is, according to the Dictionary of the Spanish Royal Academy, a word (not-so) surpisingly-quickly learned, from the language of the native 'Taína' Carribbean people of those islands, in the very first year Europeans touched Carribean/Gulf reality...

The 6"-8" of rain would be worth it (up to a minimal Cat 1). The bayous are so salty now we are getting all sorts of gulf animals up in them now. The shrimpers are happy though - record catchs this year.

That GFDL looks like it would go right over me.

It's all fun till the power goes out.
I have a boat at the marina to care for too.
Poor thing gets scared of storms.

Why "Alberto" (Gonzales??) The criminal appointee who can't stop thinking of ways to harm the Constitution?

Sometimes, it seems so... "coincidental," isn't it?
Unreal.

(Hope nobody gets hurt.)

No such thing anymore. Since last season hurricanes have been defying conventional predictions, intensifying in the face of wind shear which is SUPPOSED to slow or even destroy them.

High wind shear was supposed to keep Alberto a TS, but it has intensified anyway.

Watch your backs, because the "experts" are floundering in the dark. Assume that any TS can become a hurricane and prepare accordingly.

More at http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/06/12/tropical.weather.ap/index.html

000
WTNT41 KNHC 122027
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE
STORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE LAST FIX FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOLDING NEAR
997 MB AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 67 KT...SO THE
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED. THE STORM HAS LEFT THE
AREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...I.E. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOP
CURRENT...BEHIND. NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY.

ALBERTO'S FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT...TO ABOUT 9 KT. A
500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
WITHIN THIS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
ALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN
THIS AREA. IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.9N 85.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 28.9N 84.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 30.4N 83.0W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/1800Z 47.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

Latest Jeff Masters... ominous
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


All this strengthening occurred in the face of strong wind shear of 20-30 knots, which is unusual. I was calling for a 10% chance of Alberto becoming a hurricane, but Alberto certainly has other ideas! The storm's central pressure was a very unimpressive 1006 mb last night when I thought the storm might get ripped apart, but the 9 mb drop in pressure since then is an impressive achievement for a storm under 20-30 knots of wind shear. The shear has not changed much in the past 12 hours, nor is it expected to do so over the next few days. This should limit Alberto's intensification. Hurricane Ophelia last year strengthened in the face of similar amounts of shear, and I anticipate that Alberto will grow no stronger than Ophelia. Maximum sustatined winds of 80 mph are probably the highest we will see from Alberto.

The major threat of damage with Alberto now appears to be storm surge, with a surge of 8 - 10 feet possible over portions of the west coast of Florida. The waters off the coast are very shallow for a long stretch, which allows a rather large surge to build up. High winds will be a problem for mobile homes, and cause moderate tree damage and power outages in the affected area. Heavy rain will also be a concern, but as I discussed yesterday, this may be more of a boon than a bane given Florida's moderate drought conditions. Rain amounts of up to six inches have fallen in portions of the Keys and Naples, Florida.

We'll update this blog later today as conditions warrant.

Jeff Masters

A Warning To All Watchers.... Hurricanes are Dangerous and Unpredictable

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2333203&mesg_id=2333275

Going the middle of that many states?

... is not correct.

The latest GFS model (short range three hourly) shows Alberto blocked just off the panhandle coast till +42 Hours - and weakening without coming ashore.

See how the green line stops close to the coast now....

for a direct hit on Cedar Key? Looks to be heading in north of there, though.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0106W_sm2+gif/204555W_sm.gif

Is that a direct hit?

And he thinks that Alberto will never become a hurricane.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 130301
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 68-KT WINDS AT
700 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT JUST NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
FLORDIA... WHICH WAS IN AN AREA OF 64+ KT DOPPELR VELOCITY DATA
FROM TAMPA BAY AND TALLAHASSEE. THESE WIND REPORTS WERE IN AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH REFLECTIVITIES OF AT LEAST 40 DBZ...SO
USING A 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR SEEMS APPROPROPRIATE...WHICH
MEANS THAT ALBERTO REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB IS BASED ON EARLIER RECON DROPSONDE REPORT OF
996 MB WITH A 15-KT SURFACE WIND...AND NOAA BUOY 42036...LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... REPORTING 997.2 MB PRESSURE AT 13/02Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 040/09 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS
EVENING INDICATE A NARROW 850-500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD
AHEAD OF ALBERTO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF ITS CURRENT
MOTION...BEFORE THE BEING TURNED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND MISSOURI VALLEYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE
RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTRL
FATER THAN THE PREVIOSU ADVISORY AFTER ALBERTO BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY FORCE THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINA COASTS BY 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN AN OVER WATER
EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA.

SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY AROUND 79-80F AHEAD OF ALBERTO... THE 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA INDICATES THAT THE ATMOPSHERE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AHS
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING. SINCE THERE IS
AVAILABLE INSTABOLILY TO SUPPORT THE REGENERATION OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING... A FORECAST OF
ALBERTO POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
APPEARS TO STILL BE IN ORDER.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
ALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN
THIS AREA. IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.4N 84.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 83.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 31.1N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 33.1N 80.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 77.2W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z 39.5N 68.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0000Z 44.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/0000Z 49.5N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...and zoom up the Atlantic coast keeping itself intact.

Well - that's what madman Joe says

Fortunately, not much wind yet.

Time for some sleep. See what the AM brings.

is not a bad thing...I'm 30 min. from Cedar Key,a nd we've been getting rain since 3pm...dog has diarrhea (argh!)...I've been out in it about once an hour...much stronger rain, still hardly any wind...don't think that this one is going to be that bad...kinda like a bit less than the strength of Jeane from about 2 years ago is my guess...which wasn't bad...

Now, if this had formed in September, yipes!

<snip>
<snip>

Full article: http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2069244

I woke about 3 a.m. suddenly and switched on the tv. My area was in a tornado warning. We did not get hit by it, but could clearly hear it roar and rumble by about 10 minutes later.

I'm in North St. Augustine.

Oldest dog has had me up since 1:30am because of the lightning and thunder. He totally freaks out. Been raining steady since I have been up and quite gusty. Our area is still under the Tornado Watch until this afternoon.

There was a waterspout indicated by radar east of your area, iwillalwayswonderwhy heading up towards Mayport. Don't know what the status of that is right this minute.

We need this rain so badly, hope that is all it brings.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0606/S00176.htm

Report compiled by Alastair Thompson
The Atlantic Hurricane season for 2006 is expected to be one of the worst ever. Last year's season was in fact the worst ever to date, and will be hard to beat, however, so far 2006 is shaping up as expected.

Nine days into the season what is now Tropical Storm Alberto started to form in the Gulf of Mexico. Four days later 20,000 Florida residents have been ordered to evacuate a section of the Florida coast which is expected to bear the brunt of an 8-10 foot storm surge in advance of the hurricane – which according to the latest advisory is now not expected to be an actual hurricane on landfall in 18 hours.

However as Alberto has proven highly unpredictable thus far – strengthening when shear should have stopped it doing so, and advancing at a very uncertain pace for the coast – time will tell whether Alberto becomes a hurricane or not in the end. Either way Alberto has definitely got the United States attention.

Welcome to Atlantic Hurricane Season 2006.

See also:
- USEFUL LINKS
- LATEST WARNING CENTER ADVISORY
- SUPERCOMPUTER LANDFALL FORECAST

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0606/S00176.htm

"Alberto is nearing the big bend of Florida and will make landfall around 9am near Steinhatchee as a minimal hurricane. Tornado watches are out through 8am for all of central Florida."

Off with a bang this season.

in Gainesville. Heck there isn't even a breeze. Just lot's of steady rain. The lake is up about two feet, so it's right about normal level right now. So far so good.