Midterm Election Update: Democratic Lead for Congress Continues (Gallup)

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=23278

Midterm Election Update: Democratic Lead for Congress Continues
Congress approval improves slightly

PRINCETON, NJ -- Continuing a several month trend, the Democratic Party holds a strong lead over the Republicans in Gallup's latest generic ballot measure of the midterm congressional elections. According to the June 1-4, 2006 Gallup Poll, Democratic candidates are favored for this fall's U.S. House of Representatives election by 51% of all registered voters nationwide, while Republican candidates are favored by 42% of voters.

The current nine-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot is slightly lower than the average 14-point lead held by Democrats in the four previous Gallup measures conducted between February and April. However, it is still among the widest advantages the Democratic Party has enjoyed on this important indicator of congressional electoral strength since the Republican Party came to majority power in Congress in 1994.

A key factor determining the Republicans' chances for retaining majority control of Congress will be the extent to which they can get Republican voters to the polls in November. Midterm elections typically draw out only about 35% of the national public, much lower than the 50-55% who vote in presidential elections. In recent years, this lower turnout has been to the Republicans' advantage, as a disproportionate number of Republican voters have been represented at the polls.

Gallup will not be analyzing the midterm elections on the basis of "likely voters" until closer to election time. However, an analysis of a more loosely defined group of "regular voters" (those who say they "always vote" and report that they voted in the last midterm election) finds this group even more likely to support the Democrats for Congress than does the larger group of all registered voters.