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AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR

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Ragin_mad Donating Member (116 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:52 AM
Original message
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/121432.shtml

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.
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bertha katzenengel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:53 AM
Response to Original message
1. Well, shit. Even the inevitable draws sighs of anxiety.
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AndyA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
2. Here we go...this is just the beginning.
Hey George: Is FEMA ready to help this time? If not, you should have been getting them geared up and ready to go.

Sending good thoughts to everyone in Florida (except Jeb and his family, and Harris and her family - no soup for you!)
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rurallib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Florida gets well taken care of
Nice to have your brother as pres. It's the rest of the country that's screwed.
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #4
19. As a Floridian, I would qualify that.
Floridians who support Jeb and GW get well taken care of. There are still plenty of people who haven't recovered from not only Wilma, but Frances and Jeanne!
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RagingInMiami Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #19
43. Plenty of blue tarps in South Florida from Wilma and Katrina
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The Deacon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Don't forget us
in Southwest Georgia. The last time something named "Tropical Storm Alberto" came through this way it caused the worst disaster in recorded history for Albany. And this sucker looks to track right through here & then hit Savannah on its way back out to sea.
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Lochloosa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. I lived in Albany during that flood.
Had 4 feet of water in my apartment and 8 feet in my business for 7 days.

And the stories I could tell about Jesse Jackson. Lost all respect for him during that flood.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #5
36. That one in 1994 stalled out...I don't see that happening this time.
Hope not.
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qanda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
3. What did I miss?
When did this become a hurricane?
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Ragin_mad Donating Member (116 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. It's not a hurricane yet
But is expected to gain Cat 1 status in about 12 hours. Currently winds are 65 mph.
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spinbaby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. I didn't think it was expected to become a hurricane
.
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Massacure Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. When I checked last nights 10 pm forecast there was a 35% chance of Cat 1.
Todays 10 am forecast a 65% chance of it being Cat.1 in 12 hours and 55% chance of it being Cat.1 in 24 hours.
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. It wasn't expected to be, but has gained strength
Gained 20 mph in winds in 2 hours.

Gulf must be pretty hot
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DoYouEverWonder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #15
28. I was out off Cedar Key on Saturday
the water was like a bathtub.

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HeeBGBz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. Soon
They issued hurricane warnings after a recorded wind of 70 mph. Don't know when they will upgrade it from tropical storm to hurricane.
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The Deacon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #3
10. Hurricane Warnings
Don't mean the storm itself is a hurricane - just that conditions will be those experienced with a hurricane. (I know, confusing - the winds may not be sustained hurricane force but can locally gust to those extremes.)
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #3
17. Never, never turn your back on a storm in the Gulf.
10:35 AM Update - Hurricane Warnings Issued
Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from Longboat Key (North of Sarasota) northward to the Ochlockonee River (South of Tallahassee) -- This includes the Tampa Bay/St. Pete area., Alberto is not a Hurricane yet, but may be upgraded later. Winds are now at 70MPH, just under Hurricane force.

The official forecast is now calling for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall, with winds of 75MPH at landfall. Alberto has won the war with the shearing.

The air force hurricane hunter plane found the center remofred northeast of where it was before, near the strongest convection, which means it may have some room for more strengthening, thus the hurricane warnings. Pressure has dropped to 997 mb.

Storm Surge will be more of an issue as well -- 8 to 10 feet in some areas east of where the system makes landfall. People in the coastal areas need to prepare now, and be prepared for this system. The Gulf coast in the warning area is a shallow shelf, and is very conductive to intensifying the effects of storm surge. If you are immediately along the coast east of the landfall point and in the warning area, I'd suggest leaving

http://flhurricane.com/
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cobalt1999 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #17
27. you said it!
When those storms hit the hot water currents in the Gulf - POW, they explode in strength!

Luckily, those currents are not too close to shore as the storms generally drop back down when they leave the 'hot water' areas. I remember Dennis last year going from a 2 to a 5 in one day and then dropping back down to a 3 when it left the current. Opal did the same thing in 1995, went to a 5 in record time and came in as a 3.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #27
35. Another word to the wise... "you can never have enough beer and batteries"
My house survived Erin, Opal and Ivan without losing a shingle, I'm knocking on wood every season that my luck holds.
Of course, I'm about 4 miles from the Gulf as the crow flies.
Hurricanes are the price you pay when you live where the sea meets the land.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
6. maybe we can listen to fox news tell us that Al Gore doesn't know
what he is talking about

I am afraid it will only get worse before people realize that they are responsible for the environment and the war in Iraq

you cannot just blame elected officials, since they elected the same ones over and over again
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
12. I look for some major media grandstanding by Katherine Harris in
the next 48 hours.

From reports, it sounds as if her campaign could use a little hype injection.
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
14. Let this be a lesson to all of us living here in FL, this was NOT expected
to be more than a rain event...Water temps are already at 85 degrees, high temps like this always leads to bad news, I am not sure why they wanted to downplay this storm. I would hate to be in its path being caught unprepared last minute.

My goal is going stay over prepared all season. This i going to be a long one I am afraid.
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #14
25. Yep, I've been doubling up on the purchase of...
canned goods, bottled water and batteries within my weekly grocery shopping for about six weeks now.
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woodsprite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 10:40 AM
Response to Original message
16. Saw my cousin over the weekend and she said
they were keeping an eye on it. As she was up in PA for our Aunt's 90th birthday, she said her hubby stayed down to supervise getting the shed, patio and roof fixed from Hurricane Charlie. He told her they poured concrete footers and were bolting everything this go around. She said that companies they had contacted were saying that they already had enough work to keep them busy thru the end of 2007 easily, and they were having problems getting supplies since alot were going to the LA/MS/AL area.

Hope everybody down there is battening down the hatches and holding on for a bumpy ride. Even here in Delaware, we're having some bad trees taken down because the 80mph winds we got from one of the brushes with hurricane remnants a couple of years ago would bring them right down - probably on our neighbors.
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RaleighNCDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:03 AM
Response to Original message
18. This is just wrong.
They're supposed to retire the names of major disasters, and there's already one named Alberto in D.C.

Who dropped the ball?
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. LOL!
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cagoldensun5050 Donating Member (200 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #18
30. ...
They're supposed to retire the names of major disasters, and there's already one named Alberto in D.C.

Who dropped the ball?

LOLOLOLOL!!!
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Ezlivin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
21. Rush Limbaugh calls it "A publicity stunt for Al Bore's movie..."
He didn't, but you'd expect the asshole to say something like that, didn't you?

:)
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. Sounded plausible to me.
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
22. I'm on the east coast of Florida and have felt effects all day.
The last hour has seen the sky darken considerably and it's starting to rumble.

Strangely, the worst damage I've ever experienced was from a tropical storm rather than Hurricanes Erin, Irene, Charley, Frances, Jeanne or Wilma. TS Gordon in 1994 dumped so much rain we had a roof cave in. Aftermath can be incredibly unpredictable. The fairly typical summer rain storm that came in the day after Hurricane Erin screwed up the traffic and infrastructure in my county worse than the hurricane had. I lost a perfectly good Chevy Corsica in the flooding the next day.

I've got a healthy respect for weather systems and the unpredictability of effect. My thoughts and prayers are with anyone in the path, directly or indirectly.
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lovuian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
24. You can tell that this administration is going to Hate the
Hurricane Season... katrina is going to comeback over and over again in Americans minds...
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. And... Election Day comes before the end of the...
Atlantic hurricane season. TS Gordon mentioned in my post above happened on November 11. (Not an impressive memory for dates, it just happened to be on my birthday.)
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cagoldensun5050 Donating Member (200 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #26
29. I remember
Hurricane Rita...at least before it made landfall. On it's projected path, after bulldozing Houston, it would reach all the way up here to Dallas as a Cat 1.

The 35 was crazy...many stores along the freeway ran out of supplies...
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nealmhughes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. I am not surprised,
it has been nearly 100 degrees F in North Alabama for a week now. The water, which is spring fed and around 55 F in the creek by my house is amazingly warm. This is odd for this far north. I wonder how warm the Gulf is? If the water up here is that warm flowing...
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ItsTheMediaStupid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Link to temperature map
Edited on Mon Jun-12-06 02:20 PM by ItsTheMediaStupid
IIRC, the Gulf was 80 - 85 degrees Farenheit last week.

I was amazed to find it so warm so early in the summer.

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/flm.html

Edited to add link and change subject.
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ItsTheMediaStupid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #24
33. The people of the gulf coast probably won't like it much either
nm
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uppityperson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
34. radar loop map via wunderground, beware surge
Link to cool radar loop map and Jeff Master's blog
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200601_n0z.html?extraprod=n0z

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=375&tstamp=200606
The latest report from the hurricane hunters found winds of 74 knots (85 mph) at flight level of 1500 feet, and a central pressure of 997 mb, down 4 mb from the 8am EDT penetration. After surviving some very strong wind shear last night, Alberto has reorganized, and a new center has formed under the deep convection on the east side of the storm. The old center is still visible on satellite imagery, drifting southward over the Gulf of Mexico. Spiral banding has appeared on both visible satellite imagery and the Tampa radar animation.

All this strengthening occurred in the face of strong wind shear of 20-30 knots, which is unusual. I was calling for a 10% chance of Alberto becoming a hurricane, but Alberto certainly has other ideas! The storm's central pressure was a very unimpressive 1006 mb last night when I thought the storm might get ripped apart, but the 9 mb drop in pressure since then is an impressive achievement for a storm under 20-30 knots of wind shear. The shear has not changed much in the past 12 hours, nor is it expected to do so over the next few days. This should limit Alberto's intensification. Hurricane Ophelia last year strengthened in the face of similar amounts of shear, and I anticipate that Alberto will grow no stronger than Ophelia. Maximum sustatined winds of 80 mph are probably the highest we will see from Alberto.

The major threat of damage with Alberto now appears to be storm surge, with a surge of 8 - 10 feet possible over portions of the west coast of Florida. The waters off the coast are very shallow for a long stretch, which allows a rather large surge to build up. High winds will be a problem for mobile homes, and cause moderate tree damage and power outages in the affected area. Heavy rain will also be a concern, but as I discussed yesterday, this may be more of a boon than a bane given Florida's moderate drought conditions. Rain amounts of up to six inches have fallen in portions of the Keys and Naples, Florida.

We'll update this blog later today as conditions warrant.

Jeff Masters
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 04:44 PM
Response to Original message
37. Looks like Jeb crying wolf, his poll numbers must be down.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0106_PROB64_F120_sm2+gif/204555.gif
Click link below for larger chart

<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204555.shtml?hwind120?large>

<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204555.shtml?hwind120>

<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204555.shtml?table>

Looks like a fast moving Tropical Storm to me.
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DoYouEverWonder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #37
39. He'll probably evacuate Steinhatchee
and call himself a hero for getting all 500 people out of there.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 08:39 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. That sounds about right...
...what is Steinhatchee? A beach resort? Or a new "planned Golf community"?
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DoYouEverWonder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #40
42. An old fishing village up near the Big Bend area
Still relatively undeveloped and sparsely populated. Great place to go scalloping in the summertime.
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democrat in Tallahassee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 08:04 PM
Response to Original message
38. rainy and gusty here; not supposed to get much so it will probably
be a cat 3 by morning. They don't know shit about these things.
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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #38
44. That's unfair to the people who spend their life studying weather.
First off, they can only base their predictions on what happened before. Given global warming, we're heading into some uncharted territory. (I might add, literally uncharted since the conditions are starting to fall outside the ranges used in the past.)

Second, good forecasters are always careful to give the probability of something happening rather than declaring 100% accuracy. You might call this hedging, but I call it an honest assessment of scientists' ability to predict the result of a chaotic system.

Here in the Lake Ontario snowbelt, I've seen a pattern of storms tracking as predicted but more and more often showing more energy than predicted. In other words, a cold front will warm up coming across the lake so that we may get higher temperatures and more snow than predicted. Last winter, our snow storms often turned into rain storms.
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goforit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 08:42 PM
Response to Original message
41. An inconvenient truth.
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republicancowards Donating Member (17 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
45. Alberto will never be a hurricane.
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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. That's a pretty bold statement at this point.
Besides, if we've learned nothing else in recent years, it's that the rainfall and storm surge can do a lot more damage than the winds. A tropical storm coming in with the tide and stalling over an area can be worse than a fast moving hurricane.
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #45
47. Before 2005, I would have said "You're right!" Now, I'm not so sure.
Edited on Mon Jun-12-06 09:14 PM by hatrack
It's early in the season, and I think we're probably looking at a Cat 1 at worst.

But another couple of months, and I'd be willing to start thinking far darker thoughts.

Don't forget that Katrina, Rita and Wilma all went from Tropical Storm to Cat 5 status in less than 36 hours. Rita and Wilma did so in less than 24 hours, and Wilma ended up being the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane ever recorded - I think she got down to 882 mb, if I remember correctly.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-12-06 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. You remember correctly
That was a very strange- and late season storm.

After watching that unfold- I won't be surprised at anything I see this season:

Varying Wilma Models Confound Forecasters

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Weather/wireStory?id=1235545&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312
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RaleighNCDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-13-06 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #48
49. Well, that was a special case
because of the mothership that was hiding in her.
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