STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 13 June

UNDER THE RADAR OR BEHIND BLACK CURTAINS?

A couple of weeks ago, an article by Dawn Kopecki surfaced in BusinessWeek Online titled, Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules, which caught my eye.

What I found disturbing about this article was the revelation that,

The potential implications of this are nothing short of “astounding.” It raises questions like; exactly what constitutes national security? Would the deteriorating financial position of a public financial concern (like J.P. Morgan or Goldman Sachs?) engaged in the trade of crude oil, natural gas, 48 Trillion Dollar Derivatives books or precious metals be considered “in the national interest?”

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

this? What do they know about our economy and the financial health of monetary system that they would need to plan ahead by doing something like this.

We can't change it...but we maybe can plan to deal with it in some way. Don't know quite how, though.

a complete cluster-f**k. Medicare, SS, Iraq, Job Creation Bill, DHS, etc, etc, etc. So, if they DO have a plan to deal with a finaccial meltdown -
We are sooooo screwed. Double-damned if they do and damned if they don't. To put in in Mogambo terms:

WE'RE DOOMED!

:evilgrin:

NEW YORK - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Tuesday reported second-quarter profit more than doubled, as stronger investment banking and trading helped shield the Wall Street investment house from recent volatile market conditions.

However, Goldman's stock rose 14 cents to $145.14 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange as investors remained nervous about the overall market's future after a month of declines on Wall Street.

Quarterly profit at Goldman Sachs climbed to $2.29 billion, or $4.78 per share, after preferred stock payments in the three months ended May 26 from $865 million, or $1.71 per share, in the year-ago period. Results benefited from the $700 million sale of a power plant to General Electric Co.

more

8:30 AM Business Inventories Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.6%
Prior 0.7%

8:30 AM Core PPI May
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.1%

8:30 AM PPI May
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.9%

8:30 AM Retail Sales May
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto May
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.7%

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY PPI CAPITAL EQUIPMENT UP 0.3%

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 6.3% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY PPI ENERGY PRICES UP 0.4%

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY CRUDE PPI UP 2%

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 1.1%

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. PPI UP 4.5% IN PAST YEAR; CORE PPI UP 1.5%

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY CORE PPI UP 0.3% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY PPI UP 0.2% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. APRIL RETAIL SALES REVISED UP 0.8% VS. 0.5% PREV

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.5%, AS EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES UP 0.1%, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B28EA98F8%2D9C79%2D43BB%2DB41C%2D73DFFCCAA191%7D&symbol=

excerpt:

In May, the driving force for sales was at gasoline stations, where sales rose 1.9%.

Excluding gas, retail sales fell 0.1% in May after rising 0.3% in April.

Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers decreased 1.6% and were up 1.9% year-over-year.

Sales of other durable goods were mixed: Building and hardware store sales fell by 0.4%, while furniture sales fell 0.5%. On the other hand, electronics and appliance store sales rose 0.4%.

General merchandise store sales increased 0.3%. Within that category, department store sales increased 0.1%.

Clothing store sales jumped 0.2%.

Sales at leisure-time stores such as sporting goods and books rose 0.7%.

Sales at food stores increased 0.6%. Sales at restaurants and bars were flat.

...more...

Dollar up
Stocks up
Treasuries up

Wheeee!

far as the eye can see, yet gold takes a hit. Like rising rates are going to save the buck or something. :crazy: These new "short-term" "trade for the day" markets drive me batty sometimes.

10:00 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. APRIL BUSINESS SALES RISE 0.6%

10:00 AM ET 6/13/06 U.S. APRIL BUSINESS INVENTORIES RISE 0.4% VS. 0.6% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B198CF723%2DF87C%2D4D82%2DB19E%2D832B7D44A9F3%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. business inventories increased 0.4% in April, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.26 in April, just above the all-time low of 1.25 set in January. The rise in inventories was below estimates. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected inventories to rise 0.6% in April. Sales rose 0.6%.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil fell almost 1 percent to below $70 a barrel on Tuesday, pausing to watch the season's first Atlantic storm as it weakened along a route that will take it well clear of U.S. energy installations.

Iran's reluctance to give up its atomic program, unrelenting violence in
Iraq and strong demand signals from China all lent the market support, keeping prices up 15 percent this year and within sight of their record high of $75.35.

U.S. light sweet crude for July fell 69 cents to $69.67 a barrel by 0746 GMT, extending Monday's $1.27 slump. London Brent crude lost 72 cents to $68.21 a barrel.

more

NEW YORK – For Americans tired of watching prices rise at the gasoline pump, relief may be on the way.

After the price of oil hit a high of $75.17 a barrel last month, demand in the United States dipped a few percentage points. Demand by other big developed economies has also eased in recent months, reaching a level that's actually lower than a year ago.

Oil markets started to factor in some of these supply-and-demand dynamics last week: The price of crude oil fell below $70 a barrel on Thursday. (By Friday, however, it had inched back above $71 a barrel, following news about Iran and a tropical depression headed toward the Gulf of Mexico.)

Still, the lower prices are a good sign for consumers - and the price of the hydrocarbon could stabilize or drop more if, as widely expected, both the US and global economies grow at a slower pace for the rest of the year.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0612/p02s02-usec.html

I think I'll go take a reality check. Close Windows. :bounce:

now that a big relief.. the article is a great propaganda piece and doesn't answer the the big question, when will worldwide oil production peak..

I was going to fill up on the way home and lo and behold, ZOOM went the prices. And oil went down yesterday!

:wtf:

7:35 AM ET 6/13/06 CRUDE FUTURES DOWN 82C AT $69.54 A BARREL

10:20 AM ET 6/13/06 JULY CRUDE TAPS $68.96/BRL, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 22

10:20 AM ET 6/13/06 JULY CRUDE LAST DOWN $1.31, OR 1.9%, AT $60.05/BRL

10:20 AM ET 6/13/06 JULY NATURAL GAS UP 1.6 CENTS, OR 0.3%, AT $6.24/MLN BTUS

10:20 AM ET 6/13/06 JULY UNLEADED GAS FALLS 3.68 CENTS, OR 1.7%, TO $2.0875/GAL

This could be a repeat of what happened last week with the huge drop and then the invisible hand comes in to save the day.

Run the Stops, Squeeze The Shorts.

I could be wrong, but I wouldn't put it past the PTB to Stick Save the Market again.

Pre-Market is just too ugly.

And we've seen it happen too many times before.

Your subject line says Thursday June 13th.

Otherwise, thanks for posting all this info. I really look forward to reading it every day.

:)

Japanese shares post biggest dive since 9-11
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060613/afp/060613081116business.html
Photo: AFP
Click to enlarge
TOKYO (AFP) - Japanese share prices have posted their biggest fall since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, plunging more than four percent on concerns over the US economy and a scandal touching the central bank chief, dealers said.

The market tumbled before the closing bell into a selling frenzy first set off by another fall on Wall Street overnight due to anxiety about the outlook for US inflation and so interest rates, they said.

With investors on the defensive from the opening, sentiment was further hit by Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui's surprise admission that he had invested in the fund of Yoshiaki Murakami, who was arrested last week on charges of insider trading.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange's Nikkei-225 index plunged 614.41 points or 4.14 percent to 14,218.60, the lowest closing level since November 16, 2005.

It was the biggest single fall since September 12, 2001 when the market shed 682.85 points in the wake of the terrorist attacks against the United States.

The broader TOPIX index of all first-section shares lost 52.59 points or 3.48 percent Tuesday to close at 1,458.30.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH87550_2006-06-13_08-16-33_HFB077430&type=comktNews&rpc=44

HONG KONG, June 13 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks slid 2.48 percent on Tuesday as a sharp fall in the Tokyo Nikkei <.N225> triggered a broad sell-off that drove the market to its lowest close since January 4.

The benchmark Hang Seng index <.HSI> ended at 15,234.42.

The China Enterprises index of H-shares <.HSCE>, or Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, dived 4.2 percent to 5,953.94, a level unseen since January 18.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH89671_2006-06-13_10-02-03_HKG301211&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jun 13, 2006 6:01am ET

HONG KONG, June 13 (Reuters) - The Hong Kong dollar hit a fresh three-month lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a decline in the stock market and some arbitrage plays.

The domestic currency <HKD=>, allowed to trade between 7.75 and 7.85 to the U.S. dollar, was trading at 7.7623/24 at 0946 GMT, softening from Monday's close of 7.7613/14. It fell as low as 7.7627 at one point, the weakest since March 10.

Asian stock markets plummeted on Tuesday following an overnight sell-off on Wall Street.

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index <.HSI> fell 2.48 percent to its lowest level since early January, while the China Enterprises index of H-shares <.HSCE> dropped 4.25 percent.

Investors were rattled by tough talk on inflation by Federal Reserve officials, bolstering expectations for global central bank interest rate rises that may slow global economic growth.

Some dealers attributed the sell-off in the local currency to interest rate arbitrage plays.

"There was some carry trade arbitration on the back of softer short-term rates," one dealer said.

Another dealer at a local bank said the overnight interbank rate hit a low of 3.75 percent in the morning sessions with some major lenders lent out liquidity. However, the rate rebounded to 4.00/4.00 percent late on Tuesday, compared with 3.87/4.00 percent the previous day.

The one-week interbank rate was quoted at 4.05/4.10 percent, down from Tuesday's 4.10/4.20 percent.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060613/afp/060613085626business.html

HONG KONG (AFP) - Asian stocks were in deep trouble again, led down by Tokyo, with nervous investors bracing for key US price data as the US central bank warned anew of the dangers of inflation.

Dealers said the reverse may have started out in early May as profit-taking in markets at record or multi-year highs but it now looks to be something more serious -- a sustained sell-off gathering a momentum of its own.

Tokyo, one of recent best performers, highlighted that worry, falling 4.14 percent for the worst single-day loss since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. That leaves the market down 13.1 percent for 2006 and down 19 percent from its early April peak.

Sentiment was additionally hit by Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui's surprise admission that he had invested in the fund of Yoshiaki Murakami, who was arrested last week on charges of insider trading.

"Compared with the US market, Tokyo share prices have risen much more in the past year, so once shares started to fall, the spiral of declines is much worse here," said Masatoshi Sato, senior strategist at Mizuho Investors Securities.

Sato said the impact of the Fukui story was made worse because investors are so preoccupied with what the central banks will do on interest rates.

<snip>

After a series of warnings from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and other officials, Wall Street got another dose Monday from Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland who said the inflation picture, if sustained, exceeded her "comfort level."

/much more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH90054_2006-06-13_10-20-13_T236786&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jun 13, 2006 6:20am ET
By Eriko Amaha and David Dolan

TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - Tokyo's Nikkei average booked its biggest one-day percentage fall in two years on Tuesday, tumbling 4.14 percent on a sell-off in tech stocks and after news Japan's central bank governor had invested in a controversial stock fund.

The plunge wiped out more than 16.56 trillion yen ($145 billion) in market value from the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section, an amount nearly equal to Malaysia's GDP.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060613/kyodo/d8i780vg0.html

(Kyodo) _ Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui's acknowledgement of his investment in the fund founded by arrested financier Yoshiaki Murakami could delay the timing of ending the central bank's zero-interest rate policy, analysts said Tuesday.

Masuhisa Kobayashi, chief Japanese government bond strategist at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd., said the BOJ may find it difficult to raise the unsecured overnight call money rate from near zero while the acknowledgement rocks the central bank.

"A scandal and monetary policy should be discussed separately, but the BOJ will face difficulty in raising the overnight call rate amid such a scandal," Kobayashi said.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH89628_2006-06-13_10-01-00_TKU002504&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jun 13, 2006 6:00am ET

TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said on Tuesday he found nothing wrong with revelations from Bank of Japan Governor that he had invested in a fund set up by a fund manager arrested last week for insider trading, before he became head of the central bank.

"I was briefed on the matter (earlier). It's not a problem," Koizumi told reporters.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said earlier he had provided funding to Yoshiaki Murakami, who was arrested last week on suspicion of insider trading, before he was appointed governor.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060613/kyodo/d8i79al00.html
Tuesday June 13, 6:36 PM

(Kyodo) _ Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi suggested Tuesday he has no plans to replace Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui over his investment in the fund founded by Yoshiaki Murakami, arrested June 5 on suspicion of insider trading.

Asked if the government plans to let Fukui complete his five-year term, the premier answered positively.

The central bank chief offered an apology over the matter during a meeting of some Cabinet ministers Tuesday evening, according to the Cabinet Office.

/...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH90459_2006-06-13_10-38-50_T89079&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jun 13, 2006 6:38am ET
By Yoko Nishikawa

TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Tuesday he invested in a fund set up by Yoshiaki Murakami, a top fund manager who was arrested last week for insider trading, before he became head of the central bank.

The disclosure prompted an opposition lawmaker to demand Fukui's resignation, though Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said he had done nothing wrong and the government's top spokesman said it had no plans to replace him.

Fukui himself was quoted as apologising to Koizumi and government ministers, without saying if he would resign.

News of the disclosure put the stock market under pressure, helping to push down the Nikkei average <.N225> by 4.14 percent to its biggest one-day percentage loss in two years in what some traders called a "Fukui shock". There was little impact on currency rates or the Japanese government bond market.

Traders said while Fukui was seen as unlikely to resign, the affair could add to political pressure on the BOJ not to rush into raising interest rates.

Fukui was asked by opposition lawmakers in a parliamentary committee about reports in weekly magazines that he had been on an advisory board to the fund, but then disclosed that he had provided 10 million yen ($87,390) to Murakami's fund when it was starting off in 1999.

Fukui said he was the chairman of Fujitsu Research Institute in the late 1990s when he became acquainted with Murakami, who wanted to leave the Trade Ministry to establish the fund.

/plenty more...

Indian shares fall 4.4 pct to lowest in 6 months
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH91791_2006-06-13_11-36-22_BOM164887&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jun 13, 2006 7:36am ET

MUMBAI, June 13 (Reuters) - Indian shares fell more than 4 percent on Tuesday to their lowest close in six months, extending losses for a second session on weaker global markets and concerns that higher interest costs will hurt companies' profitability.

"I have no more words to describe what's going on, and have run out of ideas on what to do," said Mitesh Mehta, vice president of equity sales at LKP Shares.

"It's a complete washout, and it has set us back six to eight months," he said.

The 30-share BSE index <.BSESN> ended down 4.36 percent at 9,062.65 points, its lowest close since Dec. 8. Losers beat gainers eight to one in modest trade of 140 million shares.

The 50-issue NSE index <.NSEI> fell 4.09 percent to 2,663.30.

The key index has lost more than 28 percent from a May 11 peak of 12,671.11, wiping out $209 billion in market capitalisation and surrendering all its gains in 2006. It is now down nearly 4 percent this year.

At its peak, the market was worth $745 billion, nearly equivalent to the country's gross domestic product.

"The buy side has completely disappeared ... we're in for a lot of pain," said an institutional sales dealer. "It is going to be one long summer ... thank god for the World Cup."

/more...

"World Cup:" ... and he is not referring to Cricket ...

:hug:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH88574_2006-06-13_09-09-18_L13688180&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jun 13, 2006 5:09am ET

LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - The euro spiked lower versus the dollar and the yen on Tuesday after the German ZEW expectations index fell more than expected in June, potentially dampening expectations for further rate hikes in the euro zone.

The ZEW expectations index fell to 37.8 in June from 50.0 the previous month, compared to a consensus forecast of 45.0.

"It's much weaker than expected. There is a real chance that the euro can get to $1.25 overnight. ECB rate expectations might be a bit too high and any dent in ECB rate expectations will undermine the euro," said Adam Myers, currency strategist at UBS.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060613/afp/060613092452eco.html

LONDON (AFP) - European shares dived, after a bloodbath in the Tokyo stock market, sparked by renewed concerns over prospects for rising inflation and interest rates in the United States, dealers said.

In European trading on Tuesday, London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares slumped 1.55 percent to 5,534.00 points.

In Paris, the CAC 40 index of leading shares plummetted 1.83 percent to 4,636.69 points and Frankfurt's DAX 30 fell heavily by 1.71 percent to 5,303.39 points.

The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of leading eurozone shares sank 1.71 percent to 3,421.07 points.

The euro stood at 1.2586 dollars.

In line with many global stock markets, London, Paris and Frankfurt have now erased all of their 2006 gains.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060613/3/2lu7l.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Risk averse investors dumped stocks, commodities and emerging market assets on Tuesday, worried that inflation data and the Federal Reserve's tough talk on prices will drive up interest rates as the global economy slows.

Equity markets were punished, with Japan's Nikkei average plunging more than 4 percent in its biggest one-day fall in two years after hefty falls on Wall Street overnight.

The euro also fell against a broadly stronger dollar after data showed German investor confidence eroded sharply in June in the face of the high oil price, expected interest rate rises and a strong euro.

The ZEW Institute said its economic expectations index dropped to 37.8 from 50 in May. Economist polled by Reuters had a mid-range forecast of 45.

"It's much weaker than expected," said Adam Myers, currency strategist at UBS. "ECB rate expectations might be a bit too high and any dent in ECB rate expectations will undermine the euro."

The euro fell to around $1.2566 after the data, having already racked up a fresh one-month low of $1.2558 early in the session. Against the yen, it hit the day's low at 143.65 yen.

The dollar was also stronger as money switched out of riskier assets, while government bonds benefited from their safe-haven status despite the prospect of higher interest rates.

"Cash is king in this environment," said Daniel Birch, a strategist at stockbroker Execution. "You don't want to take any risk because you just don't know what is going to happen."

METAL MELTDOWN

The FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 1.9 percent to 1,242 points, its lowest since December 2005 and taking losses from its 5-year peak in mid-May to more than 10 percent.

"It's not a good time to be in the equity markets," said Thomas Muehlberger, a fund manager at Bayern Invest in Munich. "Sentiment is negative, there are a lot of inflation fears on the market, and we're seeing reducing risk premiums if you look at emerging markets."

The MSCI emerging market stock index fell 3.6 percent to a six-month low, while Germany's VDAX Index , Europe's so-called fear gauge, spiked to a two-year high.

/more...

Uffff...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.97 Change -0.06 (-0.07%)

Bernanke's Credibility is Put to Test With Retail Sales and PPI

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Bernanke_s_Credibility_is_Put_to_1150148654751.html

US Dollar

The foreign exchange market has been extremely quiet today with most currency pairs aside from the Canadian dollar calmly consolidating. The next few days will be very busy as traders prepare themselves for a long list of key economic data scheduled for release from all of the major countries around the world as well as a number of Fed speeches. Bernanke’s credibility has really come to question over the past few days and will be tested even more so this week. Financial editors of the press have had a blast touting his keen ability to confuse the markets which comes in clear contrast to the transparency, clarity and simplicity that he initially promised when he became Federal Reserve Chairman. He is slated to speak this evening and then once again in the morning and in all likelihood, he will stick to the script on Bank Supervision because he knows that if he fails to affirm his newly hawkish stance, all credibility would probably be lost. Given earlier signs of slower growth, this week’s data, starting with tomorrow’s retail sales report could potentially surprise to the downside. If retail sales do come out extremely weak, the market will wonder whether Bernanke is playing with fire, risking a global slowdown to combat inflation. Of the other Fed officials that spoke today, they either refrained from mentioning monetary policy or simply repeated their concerns with inflation. Whether inflation is really prevalent will also be proved this week as we first see the producer price index tomorrow morning and then the consumer price index on Wednesday. These will be watched even more closely than they usually are because if neither confirms the strong inflation concerns of the Fed, Bernanke’s credibility will be in question once again, which would be negative for the US dollar. The only piece of economic data that was released today was the US’ monthly budget statement, which reported a larger deficit of -$42.8 billion compared to a -$35.4 billion forecast. Structural problems have been plaguing the US economy for years and based upon the latest figures, it is far from being resolved. Meanwhile the hurricane season begins with warnings that the season’s first Tropical Storm Alberto could be named a hurricane. With oil prices still hovering above $70 a barrel, if any hurricanes this summer hit the US oil and gas heartland along the Gulf Coast, we could easily see another record high in crude, which could pose another risk to the sustainability of consumer spending. If the US consumer goes, so does the US dollar. However as long as the US consumer holds on, the Fed will be able to as well, which would validate and exacerbate the greenback’s recent climb – so keep an eye on weather patterns as well as retail sales.

...more...

Economic Transitions: Slower Growth, Higher Interest Rates and Inflation

http://www.wachovia.com/ws/econ/view/0,,3155,00.pdf

excerpt:

This year has seen a change in the fundamentals of interest rates, inflation and energy prices. As these factors have changed, the pace of consumer spending and housing developments have changed. Our outlook at the start of the year was for real economic growth to slow and for core inflation to inch up. Indeed inflation has risen above the Fed’s presumed two percent target. Moreover, interest rates have risen and profit growth has slowed. Overall, the pattern of these changes is consistent with the typical mid-phase of the economic cycle. However the risks for decision-makers have increased noticeably as expectations have become increasingly volatile as we enter neutral territory.

Slower Growth as Fundamentals Shift

Economic growth is moderating as expected although the pace of the slowdown remains uncertain. This moderation reflects a modest slowing in consumer spending as well as a slight decline in residential investment as signaled by a modest decline in single family housing starts.

Consumer spending (graph lower left) reflects the growth in real disposable income which has slowed relative to its pace of the last three years. Meanwhile, we expect that a drop off in home equity withdrawals, as well as the negative impact on consumer durable spending, will moderate spending.

Higher interest rates and slower top line revenues growth have combined to also take a little off the investment boom in equipment and software. There has also been a slight slowdown in government purchases in 2006.

Inflation and Interest Rates

With expectations for slower growth and a modest rise of inflation there has been a limit on the extent of anticipated Fed restraint and a cap on any significant back up of long-term rates. At this point it appears the Federal Reserve will pause in its policy of raising the funds rate to allow time to assess the growth and inflation outlook.

This pause will allow the Fed and investors enough time to survey the economic outlook. Long-term rates, as measured by the ten-year Treasury rate, are expected to remain in the low five percent region for the rest of the year.

...more...

Last trade 85.99 Change -0.04 (-0.05%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 86.04

Previous Close 86.03 High 86.29

Low 85.91 2006-06-13 09:50:03, 30 min delay

52wk High 92.63 52wk High Date 2005-11-16

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aokbHhzc1c2c

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Surprise interest-rate increases in South Korea and India last week were reminders of an inconvenient truth: The era of easy money in Asia is over.

In recent years, Asian central-bank policies provided generous doses of liquidity, keeping borrowing costs low and putting a floor below stock prices. Until now, loose monetary policy worked marvelously.

The strategy may have run its course now that inflation is accelerating. On top of pressures on wages and property values, Asia is grappling with the fallout from high oil prices. More and more, their effects are seeping into consumer prices.

The question is whether Asia's economies are ready for tighter credit conditions.

Complicating things is the specter of more U.S. Federal Reserve rate increases. For better or worse, globalization has changed the Fed. Even though it has 12 districts and acts on U.S. events, its influence has never been greater. Is it really far- fetched to think of Latin America as the Fed's 13th district, Southeast Asia the 14th, Russia the 15th, China the 16th, and so on?

Add the risk that the Bank of Japan will soon raise short- term rates from zero. Not only does Japan have Asia's biggest debt market, but traders and investors for years have borrowed cheaply in yen and parked that capital in higher-returning assets from China to the U.S. The end of the ``yen-carry trade'' could slam Asian markets.

more...

But I'll bet Ben is more than happy to let them go first. Pop their bubbles first. If there is enough risk aversion in the world and flight to quality in US Treasuries, there could be enough to support the declining dollar while he pauses or even cuts rates. US rate hikes can't save the buck, but a flight to "quality" could(assuming we don't loose that "safety" illusion and keep the petro-buck status). Could help stocks as well.

Just me talkin' outtamyass, thinking aloud on how Ozy's Wrap Up post may come into play down the road. :freak:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9f688c60-faca-11da-b4d0-0000779e2340.html

Emerging market currencies resumed their slide in European morning trade on Tuesday, with the sell-off sparked by further sharp falls in Asian equity indices.

Currency weakness spread from Indonesia to South Africa, Poland, Turkey and Brazil, while high-yielding developed world currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars also fell.

The US dollar, which has risen for each of the previous six trading sessions, held steady at its new highs as it once again appeared to revel in the role as a safe haven amid the financial storm.

snip>

“The big worry for global markets appears to be that lingering upward pressure on inflation will mean central banks are slow to ease policy in response to softer economic and financial market conditions.

“The legendary Greenspan put, where the Fed cut rates at the first sign of trouble, has expired, not due to personalities but due to the shift in the inflation backdrop.”

more...

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=775

snip>

You know... When the Big Boss (Frank Trotter) refers to the home office in Jacksonville... He calls it... "At the Top of the House"... Well... I'm going to borrow that phrase from him and say that after last Monday's tough talk by Big Ben Bernanke, global inflation is now... "At the Top of the House" as far as the markets are concerned... Look at the rot on the global stock market vines... Of course, inflation isn't anything a bond market would call "friend"... So, where's the cash going?

Ahhh, grasshopper... Interest paying banks and money market accounts... Soaking up the interest rates and stepping away from the "inflation game" for awhile... That's my take on it... Of course there could be many other destinations, but from my view in the cheap seats... This is my opinion...

And with "inflation at the Top of the House," guess what we get to see the color of this week? Well, if you were paying attention in class yesterday, you would now be putting your hand up in the air, Arnold Horshack-style, and saying Ooh, call on me, call on me! Yes, you are correct, sir! First PPI today, and then CPI tomorrow... First PPI... Last month, we saw a blowout .9% gain in PPI. This month we should see that reduced, but still gain .4%, which would bring the annualized number to 4.4%...

Then tomorrow, we'll see CPI, and this is the one that gets everybody all lathered up... Of course for months now, I've been ranting about how this report is useless, as it does not contain things that we use everyday and spend money on... But suddenly, it is the "darling" of the markets... And so, I'll play along... CPI is expected to have gained .4% in May, or .2% ex-food and energy. This would put the number (that I look at) at 3.9% annualized... Ex-food and energy (which the media looks at) should come in around 2.3% annualized.

I know, I know, this stuff is all about as boring as sitting in a traffic jam! But we need to cover it, as I said... Inflation is "at the Top of the House"!

So... What's it all mean, Alfie? Well... I suspect that the markets are running scared of the fear that CPI could come in higher than 2.3%, which would really be the last nail in the coffin regarding a Fed interest rate hike on June 29th... That would support the dollar, even though I would argue it shouldn't, but we have to go along with what the markets are pushing at the time! If we would see a better than expected printing of CPI, say around 2.1%, then the dollar would get sold... Kind of all backwards and twisted, but we carry on!

more...

money and go home. Oh wait, no they won't - it's the only place where the "little guy" has a chance of saving enough for his retirement. :eyes:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060613:MTFH90638_2006-06-13_10-47-25_YUAN&type=comktNews&rpc=44

SHANGHAI, June 13 (Reuters) - Following is a summary of market activity and news articles on Tuesday relating to the yuan and China's money market.

DLR/CNY EUR/CNY YEN/CNY* 1-YR NDF** 1-YR VOLS**
Close 8.0035 n/a 6.9926 7.7363 3.85/4.15 pct
Mid-point 8.0073 10.0784 6.9994***
Pvs close 8.0188 n/a 7.0184 7.7371 3.60/4.00 pct

/,,,

This article sounded almost "accusatory" as an observation one might make over some errant group of people who are just known on a spread sheet as "consumers" who somehow can't get a grip on the fact that their income is down and they better wake up and realize they don't have any discretionary spending soon...because there isn't going to be any quick fix for them.

:eyes:

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee or am so upset over Rover getting off that I read it wrong...but what an arrogant prick this Bernstein seemed to be to me...

should reign in spending. They need to lower their living standards but are to stuck to their creature comforts.

I guess people are still spending on credit.

shame on me for trying to survive!

7:34 AM ET 6/13/06 GOLD DOWN $19.10 AT $592.20 AN OUNCE

7:35 AM ET 6/13/06 PALLADIUM LOSES $28.75, OR 9.1%, TO $287 AN OUNCE

7:35 AM ET 6/13/06 SILVER DOWN 5.9% AT $10.41 AN OUNCE

7:35 AM ET 6/13/06 COPPER DOWN 10C AT $3.128 A POUND

9:48 AM ET 6/13/06 AUGUST GOLD TAPS A 2.5-MONTH LOW OF $585.50/OZ IN NY

9:48 AM ET 6/13/06 AUGUST GOLD LAST DOWN $20.50, OR 3.4%, AT $590.80/OZ

9:48 AM ET 6/13/06 JULY SILVER TAPS $10.23/OZ, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 21

9:48 AM ET 6/13/06 JULY SILVER LAST DOWN 71.5 CENTS, OR 6.5%, TO $10.35/OZ

9:48 AM ET 6/13/06 JULY COPPER DOWN 10.35 CENTS, OR 3.2%, AT $3.125/LB

for silver now. I never thought that would happen again.

2:00 PM ET 6/13/06 AUGUST GOLD DROPS $44.50, OR 7.3%, TO END AT $566.80/OZ

2:00 PM ET 6/13/06 AUGUST GOLD CLOSES AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 23

2:00 PM ET 6/13/06 AUGUST GOLD TALLIES A SIX-SESSION LOSS OF ALMOST $82/OZ

1:50 PM ET 6/13/06 JULY SILVER CLOSES AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LATE FEB.

1:50 PM ET 6/13/06 JULY SILVER DROPS $1.44, OR 13%, TO CLOSE AT $9.625/OZ

1:50 PM ET 6/13/06 JULY COPPER ENDS AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LATE APRIL

1:50 PM ET 6/13/06 JULY COPPER CLOSES AT $3.0105/LB, DOWN 21.8 CENTS, OR 6.8%

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/metals/10291429.html?cm_ven=CBSM&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Gold and other metals suffered their biggest meltdown since the early 1990s Tuesday, as concerns over the impact of rising interest rates on global growth continued to rock speculative markets.

"We are witnessing another great transfer of wealth in progress, and the process has just begun," writes Jack Chan, trader and founder of Traderscorporation.com. "We can debate over China, India and a whole lot of reasons why metals should go to the moon sooner or later, but the fact is, a lot of hot money was required to propel these markets to the current great heights."

snip>

Although overseas stock markets and Wall Street were also the site of heavy selling on Tuesday, panic had not really set in, according to Amaury Conti, a metals trader with investment adviser Austin Calvert-Flavin.

But, "there's definitely less love between commodities and the institutional guys," he says. "The specialty retail funds that were the late comers and helped drive metals to their highs are now all trying to get out at the same price, at the same time, and through the same door."

snip>

Concerns that the Fed and other central banks are lifting interest rates to curb growth and inflation pressures, notably from soaring commodities prices, have especially rocked commodities and emerging markets in recent weeks.

Global financial markets continued to tumble overnight, sustaining the bearish sentiment that has kept commodities under severe pressure over the past month. On a fundamental level, the fear is that the Fed might lift interest rates too much and slow down the U.S. and the global economy along with. :eyes:

more...

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-13T124716Z_01_N13395942_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - Futures dealers on Tuesday pushed up the chances of a June Federal Reserve rate increase after a larger-than-expected rise in May producer prices, excluding food and energy costs. For more details see .

Chances shown in futures for a 17th consecutive 25 basis point rate increase <FFN6> to 5.25 percent rose to 90 percent Tuesday morning from 84 percent late Monday.

Hurrah! The markets are in love with rate hikes!

:bounce:

11:00 AM ET 6/13/06 BERNANKE DOESN'T DISCUSS MONETARY POLICY IN PREPARED REMARKS

11:00 AM ET 6/13/06 BERNANKE: HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDENS "AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS"

11:00 AM ET 6/13/06 BERNANKE: U.S. HOUSEHOLDS ARE MANAGING FINANCES WELL

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2BAD1381%2D0227%2D4E0A%2DBAB4%2D5A240713E56F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Despite the complexity of financial products and wider availability of credit to families with low to moderate incomes, U.S. households appear to be in managing their debt well, said Fed chief Ben Bernanke on Tuesday. "U.S. households overall have been managing their personal finances well," Bernanke told a seminar on Capitol Hill. "On average, debt burdens appear to be at manageable levels and delinquency rates on consumer loans and home mortgages have been low," he said. Bernanke did not discuss monetary policy in his prepared remarks. Bernanke said the central bank will continue to make financial education a priority to help families of modest means build assets and improve their economic well-being.

"Those factors include traditional ones, such as poor money management..."

Yup, those darn welfare queens just can't handle the generous checks we send them. GRRRR. They lead with the least common factor in bankruptcy and lessen the importance of the rest, where the real problem lies.

into the GOP-Piggy group-think...Financial hardship? - it's all your own damned fault - gotta pull yerself up by them boot straps and all. It builds character. :eyes:

The new law really did not change anything for those moderate to low income bankruptcy filers. The hassle factor was increased by having to go through "counseling", which is what is extending the time it takes. We are going through the process right now.

The "counseling" is, of course, a complete joke. The folks who do it did not realize that if a person is on Medicaid, they already have no assets. Also, the guy we talked to did not know that SS/SSDI payments were by calendar month, not by 4-week interval. We have no interest in "reestablishing our credit"...one cannot incur debt on a $14K/yr income.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060612/bs_afp/usautocompany

CHICAGO (AFP) - DaimlerChrysler will recall nearly 111,700 Jeep Grand Cherokee sports utility vehicles, after a faulty seat warmer led to fires in 32 of the cars, the automaker said.

No injuries or accidents were reported resulted from the flaw, which affects 2003 and 2004 Grand Cherokee models.

The company said it began using carbon fiber seat heat elements in place of resistive wire heating elements in September 2002. The seats also used a toggle switch that can be locked into place.

If left on however, those elements can become hotter than intended, which can degrade the adhesives in the seat and ignite, the carmaker said in a report to a federal safety regulator.

...more...

Gives that old "hot seat" thing an entirely new meaning :eyes:

pig face won't be indicted

at least I have my trading to look forward to

:hi:

Look for lots of dirty Rove tricks heading into the elections. :grr:

unless KKKarl learns how to play country music backwards (you know, it's when you get your house back, your job back, your car back), there may not be any tricks that will fool the jobless, homeless and hopeless.

in the House and Senate even is anymore (to the GOP-Piggies). Hell, Bush can just keep using those signing statements to change the intent of anything they pass. Wonder if he'll nix the '08 elections anytime soon.

Back to KKKarl, he may not fool the hopeless. I'm just not up to watching how dirty he can get. Disenfranchise/block enough voters and fire up the base - could get ugly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Atwater



Maybe KKKarl will get his own brain tumor? (a girl can wish, can't she?)

mad man. The only thing they took from that were some buzzwords to use as red meat for the fundies - "moral decay" and "spiritual vacuum". Very sad that they grasped nothing from what Atwater was trying to say in that '91 Life Magazine article. Twisting the words of a dying man for their own gain. Oh yeah, that's a perfect example of their "Compassionate Conservatism" and "KKKRsitian Values" at their finest. Meanwhile, on with "acquiring wealth, power, prestige". :puke:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B550E1BC7%2D1FD0%2D4399%2D9A7F%2DEC60E569E945%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Goldman Sachs (GS : 145.00, -4.89, -3.3% ) said Tuesday the strongest quarter in 6 years at its investment banking unit as well as strong trading results in fixed income and equities helped the firm more than double its second quarter net income. For the quarter ended May 31, Goldman earned $2.31 billion, or $4.78 a share, compared with $865 million, or $1.71 a share in the year-earlier period. The firm reported total net revenue of $10.10 billion compared to $4.81 billion last year. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had, on average, expected the company to earn $4.28 a share on revenue of $8.47 billion.

Something smells mighty strange - odor reminds me of BCCI :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BF3D36398%2DABEC%2D4E27%2D842A%2DF710E1DCE403%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trading business -- both for its clients and its own account -- drove the company's latest results Tuesday, as the firm continued to raise its risk appetite.

Goldman (GS : 142.33, -2.67, -1.8% ) said average daily value at risk in the second quarter was $112 million, compared to $92 million for the first quarter, The company said the increased risk reflected the high level of opportunities across its trading businesses for most of the quarter.

The investment bank reported net income of $2.31 billion, or $4.78 a share, for the quarter -- more than double last year's results and well above the average analyst estimate of $4.19 a share, as measured by Thomson First Call. See full story.

Goldman continued to put more capital at risk while clients, hedge funds and other investors were ratcheting down their exposure. Either way, Goldman benefits as its trading desks collect commissions when customers are buying or selling.

"There has definitely been risk reduction going on, but there has definitely not been panic or panic selling or anything like that. I think that people have been reducing risk," said Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said in a conference call discussion of the results. "A lot of the hedge funds have had kind of tough Mays and probably tough early Junes, but most of that was giving back just a portion of what had been terrific early parts of the year."

...more...

I still think that with a truly independent Fed oversight, there would be many things in the ways that their "equity" would be questioned. Interbank loans, deposits and transfers to the Pirates of the Carribean, etc. (jmho)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-13T123529Z_01_L13662042_RTRIDST_0_TRANSPORT-SEACONTAINERS-DEFAULT.XML

LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Sea Containers Ltd. (SCRa.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a U.S.-listed passenger and freight transport company, has warned it may be in default on its bonds, but analysts doubt the warning is a harbinger of wider problems in the credit markets.

Sea Containers' statement that it was unsure if it would repay a bond due in October follows a default by French auto logistics company GAL -- the first European default since February 2005 -- and comes as rating agencies predict default rates will rise from very low levels.

"We have said that we may be in default," Lisa Barnard, Sea Containers' Director of Communications, said on Tuesday, "but we haven't actually said we are in default on our bonds.".

In a statement on Monday, Sea Containers said it was likely to keep some of the proceeds of a share sale to fund its businesses, but that meant it could be in default on its bonds.

<snip>

"On a shaky day like this, the news about a default will touch raw nerves," Royal Bank of Canada credit strategist Georg Grodzki said, "but there is little in this story which is relevant to broader credit trends."

...more...

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

8:54am 06/13/06 Krispy Kreme expects loss for Q1 - MarketWatch.com

8:52am 06/13/06 Krispy Kreme cites decrease in stores, lower franchise sales - MarketWatch.com

8:53am 06/13/06 Krispy Kreme Q1 system-wide sales fell 17% - MarketWatch.com

8:51am 06/13/06 Krispy Kreme expects Q1 revenue of $116M vs $153M - MarketWatch.com

let the games begin

Dow 10,767.93 -24.65 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,084.55 -6.77 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,233.98 -2.42 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.965 -0.22 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 48,807,000
Nasdaq Volume 64,229,000

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Choppiness persists in pre-market trading as futures indications are back to suggesting that the major averages could open in split fashion. Even though concerns about inflation, a slowing economy, and the Fed going too far won't be eased much by a couple of earnings reports (e.g. BBY and GS), Qualcomm (QCOM) recently raising its Q3 EPS and sales guidance is providing a modest source of support, especially for the underperforming Technology sector.

(edited for EST :crazy: )

Dow 10,825.16 +32.58 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,102.30 +10.98 (+0.53%)
S&P 500 1,239.06 +2.66 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.965 -0.22 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 211,917,000
Nasdaq Volume 218,817,000

apeshit!

The markets don't like Bush at all. Most of the time when he opens his mouth the market drops. The reason is that valuations are historically very low, particularly in the past 25 years.

The valuations are low because we're on the downside of a wave.

The short-termers are in charge courtesy of the PPT, faeries, you-name-it.

Dow 10,800.99 +8.41 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,093.32 +2.00 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,235.68 -0.72 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.985 -0.02 (-0.04%)

NYSE Volume 507,567,000
Nasdaq Volume 477,517,000

10:00 am : Major averages continue to improve their stance as all 10 economic sectors are now in positive territory. Technology is pacing the way higher and provides the bulk of early support, as QCOM’s upside guidance helps renew enthusiasm for the year’s worst performing sector (-9.3%). Health Care is also an influential underperformer attracting bargain hunters, following positive study results surrounding Merck’s (MRK 33.85 +0.48) diabetes drug Januvia, while a rebound in transportation stocks, after six straight down days, provides a lift for the Industrials. DJ30 +43.87 NASDAQ +11.39 SP500 +3.91 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1107/1408/340 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1694/949/252 mln

09:40 am : Market opens on a downbeat note but is now trading in split fashion as investors digest mixed economic data. Earlier, the Labor Dept. reported that core PPI rose 0.3% in May, a bit more than an expected 0.2% increase. However, since the larger than expected rise in the core rate follows two straight months of 0.1%, and the data are more volatile than the CPI data which will have the most impact on inflation perceptions and Fed policy, improvements on the earnings front appear to taking precedence as a catalyst for investors to get back on the buying track. Best Buy (BBY 51.47 +2.44) and Goldman Sachs (GS 144.90 -0.10) both beat expectations while Qualcomm (QCOM 42.71 +1.52) boosted its Q3 outlook. DJ30 +13.29 NASDAQ +1.59 SP500 -0.54 NASDAQ Vol 148 mln NYSE Vol 94 mln

I am sick of red...
:grr:

Your handle is hilarious! I'd suggest getting used to the red, the markets have been a complete fraud since 2004, if not earlier.

Considering the extensive nature of world markets, derivatives, currency swaps, credit swaps, bubbles and the impact corruption has on all it, I don't see a lot of confidence returning anytime soon.

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

Lucky for us, human beings are adaptable creatures. Otherwise no one would live in Lubbock, Texas, ride in a New York taxi cab or watch Jim Cramer without predicting the end of civilization.

Some humans, of course are particularly adaptable, like parents of teenage children and Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. In an interview with the LA Times, Mr. Duncan called the industry’s new fangled interest-only fixed rate product a “very low risk mortgage.”

And he’s right. These mortgages are very low risk, once you’ve become used to the alternatives, like pay option ARMs, interest-only ARMs and 125% loan-to-value mortgages.

snip>

But with the whizbang fixed rate interest-only loan, you not only know exactly what your payment is today, you know exactly how much higher it will be 5 or 10 years down the road when you will begin paying down principal. So you can prepare for the inevitable. Maybe you figure you’ll be making more money by the time the bigger mortgage payments come about. Or worst case, you will take a second job. Or at the very worst, you’ll stop buying groceries at Whole Foods and free up some cash.

But seeing a cream pie coming at your face and being able to get out of the way are two different things. For example, what if rising property taxes or homeowners insurance thwart your best laid plans?

Well, you could sell out, pay off the loan, and do it all over again in some place cheaper, like South Dakota or Nicaragua. There is, however, the chance that by the time you decide to sell out, the price of your home will be less than the outstanding loan balance. Then the choices are: 1) sell anyway and pay the lender the difference with all that money you saved by switching to the small frappachino, or 2) mail the keys to the mortgage company.

more...

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0613autoloans0613.html

Zero-interest deals and long-term car loans are boosting sales, but they are producing one troubling side effect: a growing number of drivers owe more on their vehicle than it's worth at trade-in time.

Last month, nearly 29 percent of U.S. car buyers found themselves "upside-down" on their loans, owing an average of $3,789 more than their trade-in value for the highest level since September 2004.

Loan officers and car dealers call it "negative equity," and there are plenty of negatives.

First, car buyers often pay more interest as they roll old upside-down loans into new car purchases.

Second, they will be saddled with higher payments that make it harder to save for their next car or keep up with their current automobile loans.

Third, those buyers are instantly turned upside down in their new purchases, creating a vicious cycle of excessive debt.

more...

And in my opinion will bring down the house of cards sooner or later

people are upside-down on their car loans. It's so much like in housing, where people were more focused on getting as much as they could for whatever payment they could afford.

"When they take that zero percent, they're doing that in lieu of $5,000 in rebates," Jerome said. "If they try to trade in early, they're automatically $5,000 the wrong way."

snip>

Buyers frequently just don't do the math, focusing instead on getting the most car for the smallest monthly payment, says Alan Helfman, vice president of River Oaks Chrysler-Jeep in Houston. "A lot of people put them on five-year loans so they can make the payment affordable, and it depreciates faster than they can catch up."

Sooner or later the bottom will fall out.

When these cars get repossessed and the deficiency Judgments start to show up in mass quantities.

Dow 10,786.01 -6.57 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,089.97 -1.36 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,233.91 -2.49 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.975 -0.12 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 707,505,000
Nasdaq Volume 630,153,000

10:30 am : Early recovery efforts are short-lived as the indices almost as quickly relinquish recent gains. With immense anxiety about the inflation and economic outlook still acting as an overhang, market volatility is likely to continue until investors sift through the only "incoming data" on consumer inflation -- tomorrow's CPI report -- prior to the next FOMC meeting on June 29th. Also, even though Fed Chairman Bernanke's much feared speech last night proved to be a non-event, the market is also on edge as he is due to speak again today at the top of the hour. DJ30 -12.16 NASDAQ -0.81 SP500 -3.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1221/1440/578 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1578/1309/454 mln

(This one's for you, stb! :hi: )

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/7nWKXcb2WTwZsRL4j5vz2Bx?siteid=mktw&dist=TNMostMailed

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Four hundred years ago, the Dutch government made short selling illegal. Two centuries ago, Napoleon banned the practice.

During Congressional hearings on short selling in 1991, Dennis Hastert, now speaker of
the House, called it "blatant thuggery."

This year, the uproar surrounding shorts has reached a level unseen during the modern era, as a series of companies mount legal attacks over the allegedly underhand schemes that short sellers use to force down stock prices.

<snip>

Until recently, short sellers operated on the fringe of the marketplace and weren't considered much of a force in the ups and downs of most share prices. And although the still-unfolding corporate backlash against shorts has resulted in much attention and fervent debate, many investors still know little about the people specializing in short selling, and how far-reaching they actually can be.

It turns out that if you buy a stock, there's a roughly 1-in-4 chance you're getting it from a short seller.

<snip>

"But the real short sellers are a small and shrinking niche community of the investment world who are our first line of defense" against unscrupulous stock promoters and over-valued shares, Angel added.

...more...

just to clear the air. I also go long when the market tells me to.

Also I strictly deal in the realm of Options not the actual stocks.

Lastly I think the bigger brokerage houses have more of an impact on the market both short and long vs small fish like me.

I look at it like this, I need to take advantage of every opportune position to come out ahead, we are going up against the experts so if the market allows for this type of thing and I can spot it enough to make a killing then I will, also you will be glad to here I made 25-30% on a Put this morning:evilgrin: FRK


on a side note:

UIA I found it interesting that the Circuit Breakers for the exchanges only kick in when the market falls - like when the computers at the major brokerage houses issue sell orders - kinda like a market manipulation.

What is to stop them from doing the exact same thing in reverse to make the markets go up? The breakers only trigger down not up.

Any thoughts on this, oh yeah this is in regards to that question I pm's you about late last week.

Remember House Rule No. 1 - the House always wins

and think about this one:

if you sell a house at a profit, you must declare that profit and pay appropriate taxes on the gain to the Treasury Dept

if you sell a house at a loss - you cannot take that loss off your income when preparing your taxes

think back to Rule No. 1 - the House always wins

:hi:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d347123c-fa79-11da-b7ff-0000779e2340.html

The US surge in tax receipts has been accelerating in recent months, according to the US Treasury, shrinking the budget deficit and increasing the administration's chances of making its tax cuts permanent.

Figures from the Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office, the non-partisan body advising US lawmakers, showed revenues climbing by 13 per cent to $1,545bn in the first eight months of the fiscal year to May. A month ago, estimates suggested revenues were rising at 11 per cent.

The 13 per cent rise is the second-highest rate of growth for that period in the past 25 years, surpassed only by last year's 15.5 per cent.

Chris Edwards, the head of tax research at Cato, the public policy research foundation, said the increase in revenues appeared to be gathering speed.

"If Congress and the administration can keep control of spending and the economy remains robust, we could bring the deficit down to a relatively trivial level by 2009, as low as $50bn," he said. "This would very much strengthen the ability of lawmakers to extend the Bush tax cuts beyond 2010 and abolish the estate tax."

snip>

Corporate income tax receipts climbed 30 per cent in the eight months to May. Individual income tax receipts rose almost 14 per cent and payroll taxes were up 13 per cent.

more...

Uhh, record profits would explain corporate, AMT might explain individual income, not sure what gives with payroll - perhaps those being socked by the AMT have jacked up their withholdings. :shrug:

And, there's only pretty much room to go up. A couple years ago, tax revenues were at the lowest % of GDP in the last 40 years!

"death tax" based on an anomaly that's only a few months old. :eyes:

Timing really is everything to these people. :puke:

DJIA 10,795.05 +2.47 +0.02%
Nasdaq 2,091.79 +0.47 +0.02%
S&P 500 1,234.66 -1.74 -0.14%
Dow Util 411.27 -1.47 -0.36%
NYSE 7,789.34 -66.10 -0.84%
AMEX 1,824.81 -34.53 -1.86%
Russell 2000 681.75 -1.44 -0.21%
Semcond 436.73 +1.04 +0.24%
Gold future 581.00 -30.30 -4.96%
30-Year Bond 5.01% -0.02 -0.44%
10-Year Bond 4.96% -0.03 -0.52%

And hope no one bought gold a couple weeks ago expecting some quick profit!

11:55
Dow 10,815.72 +23.14 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,098.30 +6.98 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,237.65 +1.25 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 49.65 -0.22 (-0.44%)
NYSE Volume 1,290,097,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,078,247,000

11:30 am : Stocks bounce off session lows but choppy trading merely has the indices fluctuating around the unchanged mark in anticipation for tomorrow's CPI data to set a more definitive tone for the market. Aside from today's PPI report showing signs that inflationary pressures are growing and retail sales showing signs that a modest slowdown in consumer spending is evident, another sell-off overseas, with two thirds of the global markets in a technical correction of more than 10%, is adding to the prevailing sense of uncertainty as to when and where stocks will eventually form a technical bottom.DJ30 +1.44 NASDAQ +1.22 SP500 -1.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1788/1084/940 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2234/806/800 mln

Dow 10,785.86 -6.72 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,092.57 +1.25 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,234.10 -2.30 (-0.19%)
10-yr Bond 49.63 -0.24 (-0.48%)
30-yr Bond 50.11 -0.21 (-0.42%)
NYSE Volume 1,549,932,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,293,628,000

12:30 pm : Indices are back to fluctuating around the unchanged mark as the influential Financials sector continues to lose momentum. Despite another blowout quarter from Goldman Sachs (GS 142.04 -2.96), which plays into our favorable outlook for brokers, concerns as to whether or not it can sustain such strong profit growth is prompting investors to consolidate gains. The AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) is off 2.3% and has nearly erased all of its 3.3% year-to-date advance.DJ30 +3.92 NASDAQ +2.91 SP500 -1.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1620/1320/1.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1814/1314/1.08 bln

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1284 (39%) 1276 (41%)
Declines 1866 (57%) 1678 (54%)
Unchanged 117 (3%) 119 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 482 (33%) 637 (51%)
Down Vol* 959 (66%) 567 (45%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (0%) 30 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 12 38
New Lo's 223 198

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/weiss/weiss061306.html

snip>

The cycle of debt and energy helps explain World War I ... the Great Depression ... World War II ... and the price surges of the late 1970s.

As an aside, came across this link in another thread last night - Newman's History of oil. Probably not much new here for most DUers, but an entertaining review of war, oil, the ME, etc. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5267640865741878159&q=newman%27s

The cycle also yields some good hints on what's happening now and some valuable insights on what you can do about it. But first, let me share with you how I started my first in-depth research on the subject.

snip>

"In past cycles," he explained, "for each $100 billion in new debts added to the economy, the level of short-term interest rates went up by one full percentage point before the cycle was over.

"Now, after adjusting for inflation, $1 trillion in net new debts has been added. So, if the ratio holds up in the next cycle, the short-term T-bill rate will have to leap from about 7% where it is today to as high as 17% where I think it will eventually peak." (See chart of short-term T-bill rate in previous photo).

Precisely ten years later, in 1980, that's exactly where the 3-month T-bill rate peaked: At 17%. Meanwhile, the price of crude oil rose by over tenfold.

Other world events played a role. But behind both the energy price explosion and the interest rate spike, the big driving force was the credit inflation which Dad talked about at the Los Angeles Hilton in 1970.

The ultimate consequences were devastating:

* The Arab Oil Embargo of 1971.
* The Iranian Revolution of 1979.
* The worst bond market collapse in the history of our country.

A big price to pay just for the privilege of driving bigger cars, owning bigger homes and living higher on the hog!

What about today? Much has changed in the 36 long years since Dad gave his historic speech in 1970 ...

more...

rule?

I certainly do.

ones trying to make a life, maybe purchase a house or something hated it. The lucky ones had parents with money that we're willing to lend to their kids at a bit of a loss, or the same rate they'd get on a CD. Mom and Pop were lending at 10-15%, sure beat a bank mortgage of 15-20% and that 10-15% they were charging their kids was actually sometimes better than the bank CD rates. Houses were a bargain, IF you had the money to buy.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060612-mon.html#anchor0

snip>

I found the globalization debate to be the most stimulating aspect of this year’s conference -- in large part, because it shed considerable light on the denial that was to surface in the investment picks at the end of the conference. Of course, I’m letting my own biases come though here, having fixated over the past several years on the interplay between globalization, ever-mounting global imbalances, and world financial markets. We had the benefit of a great provocateur this year, historian Naill Ferguson of Harvard and Oxford, who has just completed his latest opus on contemporary global history, The War of the World: History’s Age of Hatred (Penguin, London, 2006 -- not available in the US until September 2006). Inasmuch as I only received my copy the night before the session, I will confess to only having read about half this 700-page tome. But I will also tell you it is as close to a page-turner in history as you will find -- I have a hard time putting it down. Ferguson treats the 1914 to 1953 era as a critical continuum in modern world history -- punctuated by two related World Wars but also involving brutal cross-border and internal conflicts in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. He dates the end of the world’s bloodiest era of conflict with the conclusion of the Korean War in 1953. But he leaves you with the gnawing sense of concern that this endpoint is still very much an open question.

Ferguson’s gift is not to describe -- although he does plenty of that -- but to analyze. In a provocative introduction to The War of the World, he suggests that this lethal period in contemporary history is an outgrowth of a combination of several powerful forces -- namely, ethnic conflict, extreme volatility in economic conditions, and declining empires. He tied it to our debate by noting two obvious bookends to this devastating conflict -- the globalization of 1880 to 1914 and the new era of globalization we are living through and investing in today. This led to the burning question of the hour: Do the apparent self-destructive tendencies of that earlier era of globalization offer important lessons as to what to expect this time around? For those fully invested in the great secular stories of this globalization -- China, India, commodities, and big-cap multinationals -- this is the question. The overlay with the debate on the global liquidity cycle makes it all the more relevant in the current financial market debate.

Ferguson offered four hypotheses as to why the first globalization met its demise: The failure of central banking; financial crises due to defective market structures; populist backlashes against globalization; and geopolitical crises. He leaves you with the uncomfortable feeling that he fears a similar outcome this time around. In his view, central banks are fighting the old war (i.e., inflation) and are in danger of being blindsided by a new war. He fears the current protectionist backlash against globalization -- not just Washington-led China bashing but also a gathering sense of European nationalism -- is strikingly reminiscent of that earlier period. And the Middle East is his prime candidate for a destabilizing geopolitical crisis. He had little to say on the financial risk issue, but he raised his eyebrows a bit when presented with arguments that the advent of derivatives makes the world a safer place by diffusing the distribution of risks. He asked if any of us had heard of an incident not all that long ago (1998) involving Long-Term Capital Management.

Ferguson’s framework left me pondering my own view of the world. I am quite sympathetic to his focus on breaking down globalization risks into two major buckets -- financial and political factors. Economists and investors tend to focus on the former and yet often go wrong because of the latter. I am very sympathetic to his critique of central banking; the old-war versus new-war analogy is a point I have stressed for a long time in voicing my concerns over the recent emergence of a potentially lethal interplay between asset bubbles and the debt cycle (my earliest comment on this can be found in an 11 October 1999 essay, "Sinister Twilight"). His concerns over risk are especially relevant in an era when spreads on some of the riskiest assets have been squeezed well beyond what history suggests is prudent. But in the end, I guess I worry most about the political backlash angle, and fear it could be worse in this globalization than it was the first time around. The differentiating factor, in my view, is IT-enabled global connectivity, which has enhanced both the speed and scope of this globalization well beyond the norms of 100 years ago. A globalization that goes beyond manufacturing into once nontradable services, that not only impacts blue-collar workers but also now bears down on once-sheltered white-collar knowledge workers, surely must be more powerful and potentially destabilizing than that strain of 100 years ago (see my 20 March 2006 dispatch, "Perils of a New Globalization"). Nor is the current quagmire in the Middle East hardly comforting.

more...

Dow 10,763.69 -28.89 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,085.87 -5.46 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,231.16 -5.24 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.965 -0.22 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 1,707,269,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,426,024,000

1:00 pm : Little has changed since the last update but that's not to suggest that trading doesn't remain volatile. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary has recently inched into the green and closer to positive territory for the year. A 38% year/year increase in Best Buy's (BBY 51.28 +2.25) Q1 earnings is keeping the Computer and Electronics Retail group (+3.6%) atop the leader board while retail is also getting a lift from an analyst upgrade on Kohl's (KSS 55.42 +0.80) and oil prices plunging 2.2% to three-week lows. DJ30 +4.73 NASDAQ +2.97 SP500 -1.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1691/1266/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1971/1182/1.16 bln

:hi:

I'll probably be trying to forget the state of my 401ks.

Lawyer says that disclosing details would compromise its operation and national security :eyes:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/3963728.html

DETROIT - The Bush Administration argued in U.S. District Court on Monday that it cannot defend itself against accusations that a domestic spying program is illegal and unconstitutional because details of the program would be revealed, rendering it ineffective and jeopardizing national security.

"The president has decided that the program is necessary to protect and defend the United States," Anthony Coppolino, a lawyer for the Department of Justice said in the nation's first court hearing on theprogram.

"Without evidence that goes to the heart of the matter, the president's claims cannot be addressed."

The domestic surveillance program — in which the National Security Agency taps calls between the U.S. and other countries — is being challenged by lawyers, academicians, journalists, advocates for civil liberties and Nazih Hassan, a Lebanese immigrant who lives in Ypsilanti, Mich. They asked U.S. District Judge Anna Diggs Taylor to order a halt to the spying.

The case is one of a few, and the first in which the government has made an argument, that could determine how much power the president has to conduct domestic spying without obtaining prior approval.

more...

for treason.

:nuke:

Dow 10,772.49 -20.09 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,085.67 -5.66 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,232.26 -4.14 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.965 -0.22 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 2,053,234,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,680,697,000

2:00 pm : Despite some more relief on the commodity price front, the absence of leadership from the Energy (-1.4%) and Materials (-1.1%) sectors continues to act as an offset. Gold futures, which slipped below $600 for the first time in nearly two months in early trading, recently closed down a whopping 7.2% at $567.50 an ounce, its biggest decline in 15 years. Oil prices are also near session lows but buyers are still opting to sit on the sidelines for the most part in hopes that tomorrow's CPI data will provide a more telling signal as to the direction of Fed policy. DJ30 -11.12 NASDAQ -2.74 SP500 -3.31 NASDAQ Vol 1.61 bln NYSE Vol 1.41 bln

1:30 pm : Sellers don't sit on the sidelines for long as a renewed wave of consolidation pushes the indices to afternoon lows. The Financials now flirting with breakeven on the year, as brokers slip into negative territory for the year, continues to act as the biggest drag on sentiment. Further deterioration in oil prices (-2.8%), nearly halving the Energy's rapidly diminishing year-to-date gains as tomorrow's weekly inventory data may show there is plenty of gasoline to meet summer driving demand is also weighing on the proceedings.DJ30 -40.12 NASDAQ -9.18 SP500 -6.73 XOI -1.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1843/1127/1.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2110/1063/1.29 bln

On June 8, the Federal Reserve issued the latest Flow of Funds statement. This is a very wonkish document, full of lots of spreadsheet information. It essentially traces the path of all money in the US economy - from where it is made, to who makes it to who saves it and how it is spent. Regrettably, the news is not good. Household debt continues to increase, savings are still down and corporations continue to do well without "trickling down" any of their monetary gains to employees.

Domestic household debt grew 11.6% in the first quarter of 2006. Since 2003, growth of household debt has increased over 11% each year. In November 2001, at the beginning of this expansion, total household debt was $7,568.1 trillion or 74% of GDP. In the first quarter of 2006, total household debt was $11,840 trillion or 91% of GDP. That's a compound annual growth rate of 11.10%. Mortgage related debt increased from $4,871.9 trillion to $8978.3 trillion over the same period, making this increase responsible for 87% of the increase in total household debt.

At the same time, personal savings was negative - again. This time the figure came in at (-)$119.8 billion. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of negative savings. At the same time, undistributed corporate profits were $606.3 billion - a three-fold increase since 2001's figure of $192.3 billion. In other words, corporations are saving a ton of cash.

- cut-

Other financial writers have commented on the incredibly large amounts of cash on hand at major corporations:

The industrial companies that make up the Standard & Poor's 500 index -- which excludes financial, transportation and utility companies -- have a staggering $643 billion in cash and equivalents.

Wall Street analysts remain unsure how companies will spend this record hoard. Even an unprecedented $500 billion in stock buybacks over the past six quarters has failed to stop companies from building lofty amounts of cash on hand.

"We're in a time that is out of whack with all historical numbers," said Howard Silverblatt, equity market analyst at Standard & Poor's.

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/6/13/71713/1642

forced to leverage speculative equity in the form of mortgages to help make ends meet and to cover healthcare costs because they lack the healthcare coverage they should have available to them from their cash-rich employers!!

:mad:

:mad:



The MEW keeps the economy going! :eyes:

Dow 10,736.55 -56.03 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,076.30 -15.02 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,228.07 -8.33 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 2,220,432,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,803,553,000

2:30 pm : Indices retrace morning lows as the market has lost any semblance of leadership. Electronics Manufacturing Services (-9.2%) turning in the worst performance, as Jabil Circuit (JLB 24.87 -7.55) has lost nearly 25% of its value after cutting Q3 profit guidance, is part of the reason why Technology now merely clings to a small 0.1% gain. Industrials has recently inched into the red, led by a 3.7% decline in Human Resources -- the day's fifth worst performer. Rounding out the bottom five SnP industry groups are Diversified Metals and Mining (-5.9%), Agricultural Products (-5.5%), Investment Banks and Brokerage (-4.0%).DJ30 -49.14 NASDAQ -12.62 SP500 -7.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2018/1009/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2209/1001/1.53 bln

...anything can happen...

3:08
Dow 10,712.78 -79.80 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,069.06 -22.26 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,223.21 -13.19 (-1.07%)
10-Yr Bond 49.61 -0.26 (-0.52%)
NYSE Volume 2,471,387,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,995,709,000

3:00 pm : Market continues to hit fresh session lows as sellers are now in total control of the action. To wit, decliners on the NYSE now hold a nearly 3-to-1 edge over advancers while market breadth favors declining issues at the Nasdaq by more than 2 to 1. Making matters even worse for the bulls and bargain hunters hoping that a bottom is near, above average volume is lending even more conviction behind today's broad-based decline as the Composite is about to surpass 2.0 bln shares with an hour still to go. DJ30 -73.24 NASDAQ -18.90 SP500 -11.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2156/888/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2363/854/1.72 bln

The Fed and Pavlov's Sheep

By Richard Benson

June 13, 2006

http://www.sfgroup.org



This is a partial edited reprint of my article entitled “The Fed and Pavlov’s Sheep” that was written and published in May of 2004. The topic is especially appropriate today.

Ivan Petrovich Pavlov was a brilliant Russian Physiologist whose experiments on animals led to discoveries that would make the demented doctors in World War II, in both Germany and Japan, very jealous. Some of Pavlov’s early work was done on sheep. Unfortunately for the sheep, the experiments on them were so stressful they eventually died of heart attacks. Pavlov’s work on sheep, analogous to stock market investing, is critical for this article because speculators, hedge funds, and particularly retail stock investors, do tend to act a lot like sheep.

Pavlov’s work on the conditioned reflex reaction of sheep to stimuli should be of the utmost importance to the Federal Reserve and world central banks at this juncture in a world where signs of speculative excess – even to the bubble level – clearly remain in all major risk asset classes including housing, commodities, emerging markets, and even major stock markets.

In Pavlov’s research, he discovered that if he gave the sheep a mild electric shock, it would bother them very little and their life would go on pretty much as if nothing had happened as long as the shocks were random. Warning the sheep in advance of a shock by ringing a bell, however, affected their behavior and it changed radically. The sheep were just smart enough to realize that if they heard the bell, the shock was coming. After repeating this exercise a few times, the poor sheep lost control of bodily functions and after a few more warning bells, they started dying of heart attacks.

What Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Governors should know, and are likely to find out the hard way, is that markets driven by speculation will react just like Pavlov’s sheep. Indeed, the major market participants and speculators, particularly greedy retail investors, are there to get “sheared at market tops”. Somebody has to buy when the smart money wants to sell and take their winnings out of the casino. Moreover, to keep the herd of retail investing sheep grazing on financial investments including commodities, there needs to be a steady stream of “feel good” press for stocks about how great productivity is and how the nomination of the new Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, will be good for the dollar. All the while, stock analysts and market touts are claiming “there has never been a better time to invest”.

With fears about a rising core inflation rate and slowing economic growth, Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Governors understand too much money was printed up over the last decade. They’re not alone. The central banks in Europe are not done raising interest rates either and Japan is just beginning to raise their rates from zero to drain excess liquidity. After 16 rates hikes, the Fed announced it is not done raising rates. This “ringing of the bell” has the sheep sensing that more shocks are coming. This could be downright ugly for the financial markets! We would recommend that the Fed have plenty of tranquilizers and lots of liquidity available to bail out the markets if they keep on scaring the sheep.

The market participants that started running like lemmings for the edge of the cliff are led by the market professionals! They have been heard shouting “get out before the sheep panic!” Over the last few months, easy money trades are down, and some Middle Eastern markets have crashed while other emerging markets are in a bear market. Commodities are also in a serious correction, including gold and silver.

All too often central banks tighten until the financial markets suffer a significant failure. The Federal Reserve and Treasury have regular practice “fire drills” on what to do during a market crash, and given their behavior and what Pavlov taught us about sheep, they will more than likely create an opportunity to fight a real financial market fire. However, when the Fed has to fight a market event – and cuts interest rates in an effort to save the lives of some of the sheep – you can kiss the dollar goodbye. So, while the dollar has gotten a technical lift over the past week or so, my cash is still going into “non-dollar cash”. The U.S. trade deficit is so massive, and our debt is so large, we believe the dollar will have to fall much lower.

While a general stock market crash may pressure all stocks (including precious metal stocks) to go lower, precious metals and precious metal stocks are being offered now at significant discounts (much of the excess that causes sharp drops in price has been washed out).

In the years ahead, the high prices we have all seen in gold and silver will be surpassed many times over. In addition, leaving your money in short-term cash with no price risk while receiving 5 percent, looks a lot better than losing money in stocks or real estate! Suddenly, risk is a four letter word and cash is not trash.


Richard Benson
President
Specialty Finance Group LLC
Member NASD/SIPC
www.sfgroup.org
800-860-2907

rots in hell with a constant flow of sheep shit raining down on him.

Wowee Zowee...
I need a beer...

3:29

Dow 10,787.14 -5.44 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,080.73 -10.60 (-0.51%)
S&P 500 1,231.25 -5.15 (-0.42%)
10-yr Bond 49.61 -0.26 (-0.52%)
30-yr Bond 50.10 -0.22 (-0.44%)
NYSE Volume 2,691,659,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,153,247,000

surely these are computer trades based on limit orders earlier in the day. Right?

Dow 10,795.14 +2.56 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,087.10 -4.22 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,232.65 -3.75 (-0.30%)
10-yr Bond 49.61 -0.26 (-0.52%)
30-yr Bond 50.10 -0.22 (-0.44%)
NYSE Volume 2,760,307,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,209,143,000

Dow 10,777.37 -15.21 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,084.03 -7.29 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,230.69 -5.71 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 2,736,786,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,188,672,000

Dow 10,763.53 -29.05 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,082.33 -9.00 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,230.22 -6.18 (-0.50%)
10-yr Bond 49.61 -0.26 (-0.52%)
30-yr Bond 50.10 -0.22 (-0.44%)
NYSE Volume 2,813,256,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,249,313,000


3:30 pm : After recently failing to find support near key technical levels, which briefly pushed the Dow and Russell 2000 into the red for the year, stocks are trying to stage a late-day turnaround. Be that as it may, the Nasdaq is still on pace to close lower for an eighth straight day while the Russell 2000 appears to be on track to extend its losing streak to seven days. DJ30 -14.49 NASDAQ -10.68 SP500 -5.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2298/774/2.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2500/742/1.92 bln

ETA: Check out the Adv/Dec


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 813 (24%) 905 (28%)
Declines 2457 (72%) 2174 (68%)
Unchanged 103 (3%) 103 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 494 (18%) 579 (27%)
Down Vol* 2088 (80%) 1533 (72%)
Unch. Vol* 20 (0%) 8 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 15 43
New Lo's 278 267

DJIA -18
NASDAQ -7



Oh wait...



No....wait again....oh....wait...no...



Whew....I'm dizzy. Maybe I'd better skip Disney next month?

Dow 10,785.78 -6.80 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,085.80 -5.52 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,231.97 -4.43 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 2,845,349,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,271,660,000

We Will NOT have another DOWN Day, Dammit! :sarcasm:

Dow 10,775.85 -16.73 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,083.77 -7.56 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,230.81 -5.59 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 2,874,932,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,291,082,000

Rah! Rah! Siss! Boom! Bah! Go Faeries!

Dow 10,754.72 -37.86 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,080.24 -11.09 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,228.44 -7.96 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 2,898,497,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,308,871,000

Those faeries are going to be chewed out by their "coach" :eyes:

Dow 10,748.73 -43.85 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,079.36 -11.96 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,227.51 -8.89 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 2,970,653,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,364,710,000

Isn't it interesting the Nasdaq and the S&P are continuing to fall whilst the Dow "recovers"? :eyes:

Dow 10,727.35 -65.23 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,074.64 -16.68 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,225.54 -10.86 (-0.88%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 3,005,738,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,390,576,000

(wow! 3 BILLION - edited to correct my fingers that just couldn't do it right the first time)

Thanks! Fixed now :hi:

Dow 10,703.89 -88.69 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,071.35 -19.98 (-0.96%)
S&P 500 1,223.53 -12.87 (-1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961 -0.26 (-0.52%)

NYSE Volume 3,087,110,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,456,685,000

with the CPI coming out and the continuing lower highs and lower lows on the DJIA charts this does not look good for people going long.

DJIA 10,704.61 -87.97 -0.82%
Nasdaq 2,072.47 -18.85 -0.90%
S&P 500 1,223.59 -12.81 -1.04%
Dow Util 406.67 -6.07 -1.47%
NYSE 7,719.28 -136.16 -1.73%
AMEX 1,810.57 -48.77 -2.62%
Russell 2000 672.69 -10.50 -1.54%
Semcond 433.48 -2.21 -0.51%
Gold future 566.80 -44.50 -7.28%
30-Year Bond 5.01% -0.02 -0.44%
10-Year Bond 4.96% -0.03 -0.52%


Below 10,750, 2,075, and 1,225. Small caps again getting hit hard

This summer is going to be bumpy

I keep singing that 80's song from bananaramma - "Cruel Summer"

We may get a firm follow tthrough rally sometime between 10000 and 10500


Does today's close mean that the DJIA is at loss for the year???


on edit: snark I just read your Clash reference from earlier, you get kudos for referencing a much cooler band

;)

Unless you were invested in oil and gold, that is.

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

best performing sectors in the last 5 1/2 years??



The hell you say!



:evilgrin:

could looked at and compared from when he took office to today, we would see that all the money invested in 401's that has been pumped into the market, has also been extracted out of the market just as fast as it went in. So these 'personal' savings plans invested in the stock market touted by the republicans, is in fact a scam to provide food for the sharks in the waters of wallstreet.

The big winners are the brokerage firms, from the looks of the volumes.

edited because I can't read.

the market goes up and down, and if you buy when it's down, you make money. If you only buy when it's going up, you don't make as much.

more time to get in while it is low.

I play the market both ways, today I had 2 trades that closed out on Put plays for a 20-30% return(options are all I trade)

I do not trade against the market it is what it is.

I always follow the overall trend and try not to piss in the wind or swim up stream.

I will go back to Long play(Calls) once the overall market gives me some better signals

Abandon ship! Abaaaandooooon Shiiiiiiiiiiiiippppp!!!!!!



Dow 10,704.29 -88.29 (0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,072.55 -18.77 (0.90%)
S&P 500 1,223.57 -12.83 (1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.961% -0.26

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B594EBFC6%2D8010%2D4E24%2DBE82%2D6051639FA424%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks ended lower in volatile trade Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average wiping out its gains for the year, on concern a combination of higher inflation, rising interest rates and slowing economic growth will hurt corporate profits going forward. The Nasdaq Composite fell for an eighth session in a row, the second time in a month it has logged an eight-session losing streak. The Dow industrials ($INDU : 10,706.14, -86.44, -0.8% ) were off 89 points at an official close of 10,703. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ : 2,072.47, -18.85, -0.9% ) fell 19 points to 2,073 while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX : 1,223.69, -12.71, -1.0% ) dropped 12 points to 1,223.

Whoopsie!

Jeebus at the trading volume and the comments on the thread! A drunk somebody had their thumb on the scale toward the close.

Dow 10,706.14 -86.44 (-0.80%)
Nasdaq 2,072.47 -18.85 (-0.90%)
S&P 500 1,223.68 -12.72 (-1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 49.61 -0.26 (-0.52%)
NYSE Volume 3,157,148,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,549,754,000

4:20 pm : During what is becoming quite a regular theme for equities, global concerns about inflation, a slowing economy, and the Fed going too far with its rate hikes, especially heading into Wednesday's influential CPI report, continued to haunt the stock market. The indices inability to find support near key technical levels also pushed the Dow and Russell 2000 into the red for the year and the Nasdaq lower for an eighth straight day. Above average volume, as nearly 2.0 bln shares were traded on the NYSE, lent even more conviction behind today's broad-based decline.

Adding to the prevailing sense of uncertainty as to when and where stocks will eventually form a technical bottom was another sell-off overseas, with about two thirds of the global markets reportedly in a technical correction of more than 10%. Japan's Nikkei plummeted 4.1%, recording its biggest one-day point decline since September 12, 2001, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 2.5% and the European bourses are lost roughly 2.0% amid worries about rising interest rates in the U.S. choking off consumer demand for exports.

Before the bell, the Labor Dept. reported that core PPI rose 0.3% in May, a bit more than an expected 0.2% increase and reflective of building inflationary pressures at the wholesale level. Investors also got an update on the health of the consumer, but May retail sales (excluding autos) merely matching an expected 0.5% increase provided evidence of a modest slowdown in consumption and exacerbated the hesitation of investors to back into buying mode. Even though this morning's data didn't alter the Fed's perceptions, since tomorrow's more important report detailing prices paid by the consumers accounting for about two-thirds of the economy, the absence of good news on the inflation front combined with slowing growth kept buyers on the sidelines again in hopes that the CPI data will provide a more telling signal as to the direction of Fed policy.

Despite some more relief on the commodity price front, the absence of leadership from the Energy (-2.8%) and Materials (-2.0%) sectors -- last week's biggest laggards losing 6.2% and 6.7%, respectively, and today's worst performances -- continued to act as an offset. Gold fell below $600 for the first time in nearly two months and recorded its biggest drop in fifteen years, plunging 7.2% to close at $567.50/ounce as concerns that global central banks will raise interest rates and weaken worldwide economies prompted another sell-off across the metals complex. Crude oil prices plunged 2.5% to a three-week low ($68.57 per barrel -$1.79) on concerns that Wednesday's weekly inventory data may show there is plenty of gasoline to meet summer driving demand.

Another thorn in the market's side was a 1.9% drubbing in the influential Financials sector, which slipped into negative territory for 2006. Regardless of another blowout quarter from Goldman Sachs (GS 139.05 -5.95), which plays into our favorable outlook for Investment Banks and Brokers, concerns as to whether or not it can sustain such strong profit growth in a rising interest rate environment prompted investors to consolidate gains. The AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) more than erased its entire 3.3% year-to-date advance after plummeting 4.8%.

Upside Q3 EPS and sales guidance from Qualcomm (QCOM 41.75 +0.56) and bargain hunters believing the worst is over for Intel Corp (INTC 17.13 +0.27) at three-year lows helped renew some early enthusiasm for Technology. However, Jabil Circuit (JLB 24.87 -7.55) losing nearly 25% of its value after slashing Q3 profit guidance, was just one of many reasons behind the year's worst performing sector (-9.5%) inability to even cling to a small gain. DJ30 -86.44 NASDAQ -18.85 SP500 -12.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2280/810/2.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2500/785/1.99 bln

:hi: