STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 27 June

MONDAY MUSINGS

Today, the world’s largest copper producer, Phoenix based Phelps Dodge (PD: NYSE), announced its intention to acquire Toronto based Inco and Falconbridge in a $56 billion transaction to create the world’s largest nickel producer. While the details of this deal are beyond the scope of discussion here, rest assured it has all the makings of a “soap opera.”

With the global race to secure strategic natural resources heating up, one can only wonder if the initial warm reception this deal is receiving in the mainstream financial press would be nearly so cozy if the acquiring (or harvesting, perhaps?) interest happened to be Chinese?

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One For the Ditch or Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?

Moving on; a Reuters article published today sounded an alarm bell,

WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) pose risks to financial systems that could hit primary dealers, tighten credit and reduce liquidity in markets, a Treasury Department official said on Monday.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Don’t Worry……Be Happy!

Then again, why should any of us worry about the goings on at J.P. Morgan or Fannie or Freddie either, for that matter? We can all sleep soundly knowing that,

“The President just delegated authority to John Negroponte that allows him to exempt any publicly traded corporation that is working on national defense issues or national security issues from the reporting and accounting requirements under the 1934 Securities and Exchange Act. It's basically the rules and regulations that require companies to keep accurate records, accurate books, accurate accounting . . . and then disclose those projects and that information to investors……”


Oh yeah, and wouldn't a GSE financial melt-down fit the definition of a national security issue big enough to exempt them from the reporting requirements of the 1934 Securities and Exchange Act? Just let your mind wonder a bit.....can you see all the other instances (Ponzi schemes) where this would be useful in protecting our "national security"?

It's gotta make you wonder just how bad things REALLY are for them to take this step. Feeling like a mushroom yet? We're being kept in the dark and fed bull-shit.

10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jun
Briefing Forecast 103.0
Market Expects 103.9
Prior 103.2

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales May
Briefing Forecast 6.60M
Market Expects 6.61M
Prior 6.76M

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. JUNE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ABOVE CONSENSUS 103.1

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. JUNE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES TO 105.7 VS. MAY'S 104.7

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. MAY EXISTING HOME PRICES DOWN 6.6% Y-O-Y

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. APRIL EXISTING HOME SALES REVISED LOWER TO 6.75 MLN

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. MAY MEDIAN HOME PRICES UP 6% Y-O-Y TO $230,000

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. MAY EXISTING HOME INVENTORIES AT 9-YEAR HIGH

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. MAY EXISTING HOME INVENTORES UP 5.5% TO 3.60 MLN

10:00 AM ET 6/27/06 U.S. MAY EXISTING HOME SALES FALL 1.2% TO 6.67 MILLION

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose above $72 on Tuesday on expectations that figures this week will show a fall in U.S. gasoline supplies for the first time in more than two months as American drivers continue to fill up despite high pump prices.

U.S. crude climbed 51 cents at $72.31 a barrel by 0930 GMT, reaching a two-week high after rising 93 cents on Monday. London Brent crude rose 52 cents to $71.24.

Oil has traded between $69 and $72 for more than a month as the market balances geopolitical tensions and rising global demand with inflation fears and brimming U.S. fuel stocks.

more

WASHINGTON - Crude-oil futures rose Monday on the heels of a rally in gasoline that brokers attributed to a shipping snag along the U.S. Gulf Coast that was having some impact on refinery operations.

The Coast Guard said Sunday that only limited tug and barge traffic had resumed through the Calcasieu Ship Channel, which had been off limits due to the spread of oil from a spill last week at the Citgo Petroleum Corp. facility in Lake Charles, La.

"The longer this thing stays backed up, the more likely those refineries are going to have to cut back," said Tom Bentz, a broker for BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York.

Dow Jones Newswires reported last week that Citgo and ConocoPhillips, which combined refine close to 700,000 barrels a day, had experienced some minor impact on their operations from delays in crude-oil shipments. The companies did not immediately return calls made by The Associated Press on Monday.

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SAN FRANCISCO (Business 2.0 Magazine) - Everywhere you look these days, tech and business world luminaries - like Richard Branson, Paul Allen, Steve Case, Vinod Khosla, John Doerr, and Bill Gates - are laying down big bets on ethanol, a substitute for gasoline that's already finding its way into pumps.

The price of the stuff has shot up 65 percent since May from $2.65 a gallon to $4.50, largely thanks to the oil companies who have started to put small quantities of it in our gas as a clean-air additive (most cars can handle a blend of up to 10 percent ethanol in their tanks).

That means the fuel for our cars is now about 60 cents a gallon more expensive than it would be if it were just gas, according to analysts at JPMorgan. As drivers, ethanol is lightening our wallets; as investors, though, it could well fatten them.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/23/technology/futureboy0623.biz2/index.htm?cnn=yes&eref=yahoo

10:01 AM ET 6/27/06 AUGUST CRUDE CLIMBS 45 CENTS TO $72.25/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:01 AM ET 6/27/06 JULY NATURAL GAS RISES 7.6 CENTS, OR 1.3%, TO $6.045/MLN BTU

World oil prices could triple if the West's stand-off over Iran's nuclear programme escalates into conflict, the Saudi Arabian government has warned.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5101444.stm

snip>

He warned that any conflict involving Iran would threaten the Strait of Hormuz, through which most Middle East nations export their oil.

Tankers carry 17 million barrels of oil through the channel every day, according to the International Energy Agency.

US President George W. Bush has refused to rule out a military attack should diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement with Iran fail.

The US Energy Secretary, Sam Bodman, has maintained that the country would be in "good shape" if Iran did put a stop on its oil exports, thanks to America's emergency stockpile of almost 700 million barrels of crude oil.

The threat of a cut in Iranian oil exports has been the main factor driving oil prices higher in recent months, with the price fluctuating either side of $70 per barrel.

more...

Yeah, who care what it does to the rest of the world, the other exporters in the area, the other importers around the globe. We got a stockpile of 700 million barrels of that black gold and will be in good shape. :eyes: Just how long will that reserve last again? How long has this quagmire in Iraq been going on? Stupid, arrogant assholes! :grr: Hey, I got mine - to hell with the rest of you!!!

Saudis really want? I mean after all why not get as much for your stuff as you possibly can before it runs out.

"greedier" than that.

12:54 PM ET 6/27/06 AUGUST CRUDE UP 29 CENTS AT $72.09/BRL IN AFTERNOON TRADING

12:54 PM ET 6/27/06 JULY NATURAL GAS RISES 2.1 CENTS TO $5.99/MLN BTUS

12:54 PM ET 6/27/06 JULY UNLEADED GAS AT $2.192/GAL, UP 1.32 CENTS

2:52 PM ET 6/27/06 AUGUST CRUDE ENDS UNDER $72, BUT STILL AT A TWO-WEEK HIGH

2:52 PM ET 6/27/06 AUGUST CRUDE UP 12 CENTS TO CLOSE AT $71.92/BRL IN NY

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify on July 19 and 20 on the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report, congressional committees said on Monday.

Bernanke will deliver the first leg of testimony on the twice yearly report on Fed policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, July 19, at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT), the panel said.

Separately, the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee said it would hear from Bernanke on Thursday, July 20. That hearing is also set for 10 a.m. (1400 GMT).

Financial markets watch the semiannual testimony closely for clues on the direction of interest-rate policy. This year's hearings may face extra scrutiny, given the uncertainty over how much further the U.S. central bank may push up interest rates.

more

PALO ALTO, California (Reuters) - NYSE Group Inc. (NYSE:NYX - news) Chief Executive John Thain said on Monday it expects to have its agreement to purchase Euronext (ENXT.PA) in front of the shareholders of both companies for a vote in the autumn and the merger closing in early 2007.

Thain also repeated that it did not see anything in the modified rival offer from the Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1Gn.DE) to require the NYSE to sweeten its deal with Paris-based Euronext.

"We're not going to change our proposal. We have a signed deal. We have a contractual deal with Euronext. So I expect us to move forward," Thain told reporters after delivering a speech at Stanford University's Directors' College.

Last week, the Deutsche Boerse's supervisory board modified some structural details of its proposed offer, but left the financial terms of the bid unchanged.

more

Warren Buffett's blockbuster $30 billion pledge to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, effectively doubling the size of what was already the world's largest charity, may have set off alarms in some quarters among those who are uncomfortable with a such a mass of endowment dollars concentrated under one roof.

With his charity set to explode to $60 billion in assets, Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) Chairman Bill Gates effectively has as much market power in the foundation world as he does in computer operating systems and spreadsheet software. The foundation will now be more than five times bigger than the No. 2 Ford Foundation, which controls $11 billion.

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The Buffet-Gates announcement also presents an additional side to another issue that has garnered a lot of attention lately, both in Congress and among the American people--the inheritance tax. Some people are opposed to the tax on philosophical grounds, believing that a person who spends a lifetime working to build wealth should be able to leave an estate as he sees fit. But with many estates taxed at a 55% rate over and above the first $2 million that's passed along, even the stingiest of wealthy individuals is naturally encouraged to leave more to charity. The alternative, after all, is the government. "You really don't have a choice," Huntsman says.

During Monday's appearance at the New York Public Library, both Gates and Buffett affirmed their opposition to inherited wealth, with Gates reiterating his well-known support for maintaining an inheritance tax. He agrees that the tax encourages charitable giving, although that's not the biggest reason he supports it.

http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2006/06/26/buffett-gates-philanthropy-cx_tvr_0627charity.html

Waste your money putting evil and incompetant slobs in office. That's a bug up the nose of professional Christians, too.

(Kyodo) Tokyo stocks ended a quiet Tuesday session slightly higher as investors put off major trading decisions ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy-making Federal Open Market Committee meeting that will begin Wednesday.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 19.41 points, or 0.13 percent, to 15,171.81. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange added 0.40 point, or 0.03 percent, to 1,549.37.

The major stock indexes narrowly moved in and out of the positive column for most of the day's session.

Brokers said that shares showed signs of stabilizing following recent falls that dragged the benchmark Nikkei to a seven-month low earlier this month, but any sharp gains were also prevented amid concerns over further rate hikes in the United States, a key market for Japanese products.

/more...

(Kyodo) _ Margin buying on Japan's three major stock exchanges rose last week for the first time in six weeks, the Tokyo Stock Exchange said Tuesday.

Details...

SHANGHAI, June 27 (Reuters) - China's yuan <CNY=CFXS> regained its strength on Tuesday, firming past the 8.00 level versus the dollar once again as the U.S. currency retreated on the global markets.

The yuan ended at 7.9983 to the dollar, stronger than from Monday's 8.0020, after the People's Bank of China set the yuan's mid-point at 7.9991 versus 8.0038 on the previous day.

"The selling pressure on the dollar was pretty high throughout the day, as traders took cues from the strong mid-point and kept trimming their holdings," said a dealer with a major foreign bank.

The dollar weakened on the global front over expectations that the European Central Bank could raise interest rates by 25 basis points in August.

The yuan has now appreciated by a further 1.4 percent since Beijing revalued the currency by 2.1 percent and depegged it from the dollar in July 2005.

/more...

See also: Daily Chinese yuan and money market update.

BEIJING, June 27 (Reuters) - China's development chief has called for "earnest" implementation of Beijing's recent tightening measures to help keep the economy on an even keel, Xinhua news agency said on Tuesday.

Beijing has in recent months taken a slew of steps to restrict bank credit that has underpinned a rebound in fixed-asset investment growth, extending an uphill battle that began in mid-2003 to ward off economic overheating.

"Currently, economic fundamentals are sound, but problems are concentrated," Xinhua quoted Ma Kai, head of the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, as saying.

"We should earnestly implement the central authorities' measures that help strengthen and improve macro-controls to keep the good momentum of stable, fast growth," Ma was quoted as telling officials during a trip to eastern Shandong province.

The government would try to use an array of policy levers to adjust bank credit, taxation and land supplies to help "resolve unhealthy, unstable factors" in the economy, Ma said.

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(Xinhua) China's trade surplus may hit a new high of between 120 billion and 130 billion U.S. dollars in 2006, Bi Jingquan, the deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has estimated. Bi was quoted by Monday's China Securities Journal as saying the huge trade surplus is a direct result of the fiscal and tax policies.

<snip>

According to figures from the General Administration of Customs, China had a record trade surplus of 101.8 billion dollars in 2005, the twelfth consecutive year in which China posted a trade surplus.

<snip>

China's economy will grow by 10.3 percent in the first half of 2006, then slow marginally for a full-year expansion of 10 percent, the central bank said in a new report. At the same time, inflation will climb slowly, registering 1.3 percent in the first six months of the year and 1.7 percent for the 12 months, according to the report, from the People's Bank of China's research bureau.

The forecasts, released over the weekend and published in the Beijing Morning Post on Monday, come despite a stream of government measures aimed at slowing the economy, following growth of 10.3 percent in the first quarter.

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REUTERS BEIJING, JUNE 27 : China's foreign debt rose 2.44 percent in the first three months of the year to reach $287.9 billion at the end of March, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said on Tuesday.

In a statement on its Web site (www.safe.gov.cn), the foreign exchange regulator said short-term foreign debt had risen 3.14 percent from the end of 2005 to $161.0 billion at the end of March.

That marked a slowdown in the pace of accumulation of short-term debt, which expanded by 8.4 percent during the last three months of 2005.

<snip>

Economists look to short-term debt as an indicator of inflows of capital speculating on an appreciation in the yuan.

Short-term foreign debt accounted for 55.9 percent of the total at the end of March, the administration said, compared with 55.6 percent at the end of 2005. Medium- and long-term foreign debt rose 1.57 percent in the first three months of the year, reaching $126.9 billion at the end of March.

China's foreign debt was equivalent to 32.9 percent of the $875.1 billion in foreign reserves it held at the end of March. Economists say that ratio is comfortably low.

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Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:35 AM BST

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - European stocks pared early gains on Tuesday as worries over the prospect of further interest rate rises cast a shadow over the market and helped negate a rise in oil producer shares.

<snip>

By 0902 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares was broadly unchanged at 1,279.2 points.

<snip>

"The market is very concerned about interest rates at the moment," said Rolf Elgeti, European strategist, ABN Amro. "The sell-off we've had in recent weeks has attracted some fundamental buyers. We are overweight in both oil and mining. Even if oil prices were to drop further, we still think these companies are too cheap."

<snip>

The equity market saw little immediate reaction to the Munich-based Ifo institute survey of German business sentiment which unexpectedly rose in June.

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LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Stronger-than-expected German business confidence data sent European government bond yields to four-year peaks and pushed the euro to a record high against the yen on Tuesday as expectations of further interest rate rises grew.

The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of around 7,000 firms, unexpectedly rose to a 15-year high of 106.8 from an upwardly revised 105.7 in May, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank raising interest rates at its next meeting.

The September Bund <FGBLU6> and Euribor interest rate futures <0#FEI:> tumbled on the news, which came on the heels of hawkish comments from Nicholas Garganas, a European Central Bank official.

Garganas said the bank was ready to increase interest rates at a faster pace if necessary to counter inflationary risks.

Benchmark euro zone government bond yields jumped to their highest since late 2004 with the 10-year euro zone yield rising as far as 4.114 percent after the Ifo data. Yields were last up 1.6 basis points on the day at 4.102 percent <EU10YT=RR>.

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LONDON (Reuters) - Europe could be heading for a new energy crisis as Russia and Ukraine trade blows in an escalating price war that threatens to trigger a re-run of January's cuts in Russian gas exports to the continent.

As rich nations prepare for talks on energy security next month in St Petersburg, Europe is on edge as the long-running dispute between Ukraine and the continent's biggest gas supplier Russia flares again.

In January a similar stand-off left some of Europe's biggest economies running close to empty during unusually cold weather. This time threats by Turkmenistan, one of Russia's own suppliers to turn off the taps unless it gets higher prices, has fanned further concern.

Russia's assertions last week that Ukraine was stealing gas and failing to refill storage tanks quickly enough set alarms bells across Europe, which takes a quarter of its gas from Russia.

"It seems like all the makings of a perfect storm," said Jeffrey Woodruff, a director of the energy group at ratings agency Fitch.

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MOSCOW, June 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday he was surprised about neighboring nations' criticism of Russia's decision to charge market prices for energy supplies.

Controversy has surrounded a decision made by Russian energy giant Gazprom this year to seek market energy prices for supplies to some former Soviet republics, such as Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and South Caucasus nations as part of a plan to bring prices for natural gas closer to the European level of about $250 per 1,000 cubic meters.

"It is difficult to understand why a natural and transparent decision to introduce market energy prices for some our neighbors has caused such hysterical, nervous reaction," Putin told a conference in Russia's Foreign Ministry.

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BRUSSELS (MarketWatch) -- European governments underlined their support Monday for a privately funded gas pipeline from Central Asia to Western Europe that would bypass Russia.

Energy ministers from Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey signed a declaration of support in Vienna for the Nabucco project. Investors, each with a 20% stake, include Austria's OMV A.G. (OMV.VI), Hungary's MOL (MOL.BU), Turkey's state-run Botas, Bulgaria's Bulgargas (BGAS.YY) and Romania's Transgaz S.A. Medias (TGZ.YY).

Governmental approval for such cross-border projects is crucial in reducing investment risks, said Peter Ramasy, an analyst at Petroleum Argus, a London-based energy publication. It will end Russian state-owned natural gas monolith Gazprom OAO's (GSPBEX.RS) monopoly for supply to all of southern and eastern Europe.
"This clears up any doubts on the part of the investors. It's saying we're committed," added an European Commission official.

The European Union has been looking to diversify its energy supply since Gazprom halted sales temporarily this past winter to Ukraine over a price dispute. Gazprom provides about half the gas consumed in the 25-nation bloc.

The 3,400-kilometer pipeline, costing $5.8 billion, will supply Europe with gas from countries such as Azerbaijan.

Russia is unhappy. The pipeline will give Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan direct access to the European energy market, reducing Russian political leverage in Central Asia.

/more...

European equity markets erased much of their early gains on Tuesday as mixed performances in the financial sectors and weaker auto stocks, largely offset gains in the oil sector. By midday, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was flat 1,278.34, while Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax was also unchanged at 5,515.44. The CAC 40 in Paris climbed 0.1 per cent to 4,806.41 and London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1 per cent to 5,678.8.

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38895.3270138889-878404362&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

...and still falling across most of the board at present...

FTSE 100 closes down 0.5% at 5,652.3 in London 16:48
Xetra Dax 30 closes down 1% at 5,459.15 in Frankfurt 16:47
CAC 40 closes down 0.6% at 4,771.24 in Paris 16:47
FTSE 250 closes flat at 9,199.1 in London 16:44
FTSE Eurofirst 300 down 0.6% at 1,270.69 in closing exchanges in London 16:30
Swiss SMI 7406.83 -0.76%
Madrid IBEX 35 11.214,50 -0,55%
DJ EUROSTOXX 3.506,93 -0,79%

Edit to add blather:

European shares end down, weighed by Wall Street
Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:32 PM BST

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - European stocks closed lower on Tuesday in a broad-based late sell-off as U.S. markets extended losses on concerns about the outlook for global interest rates.

Tyremakers Michelin (MICP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) and Continental (CONG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) slumped 2.6 percent and 2.9 percent respectively, taking a cue from a profit warning by Bridgestone (5108.T: Quote, Profile, Research), which cited the higher cost of raw materials. Continental, however, reaffirmed its full-year earnings targets.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of blue chip shares fell 0.7 percent to 1,269.9 points, below the day's high of 1,286.1 points.

<snip>

A stronger-than-expected Ifo survey of German business sentiment on Tuesday, along with recent comments from European Central Bank officials, boosted the prospects for higher rates in the euro zone and also affected markets.

<snip>

Around Europe, London's FTSE 100 index <.FTSE> shed 0.5 percent, and Paris's CAC-40 <.FCHI> lost 0.6 percent. Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> fell 1 percent, and Zurich's SMI <.SSMI> fell 0.8 percent.

Shares in oil companies ticked up, tracking a rise in U.S. crude prices to above $72 a barrel. BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 0.6 percent and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) added 0.8 percent.

/more...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.57 Change +0.22 (+0.25%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US Consumer Confidence Expected To Soil Strong Dollar Sentiment

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__US_Consumer_1151358971656.html

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (JUN) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)

Consensus: 103.9
Previous: 103.2

Outlook: US Consumer Confidence, a household survey used to forecast economic activity in the next six months, is expected to rebound to 103.9 from May’s sharp decline. Economists see more optimism coming from stronger employment data and less volatile gasoline prices for this month’s survey. Consumer confidence will be critical as high interest rates, energy and commodity prices, a volatile stock market and fear over the health of the real estate sector continue to price risk into the dollar and US assets. Overall economic strength has allowed the labor market to remain strong amid high interest rates. This weighs on the precarious strength in the housing market, which accounts for much of the net wealth the Average American possesses. Should it continue to show signs of cooling, consumers will be less apt to take out home equity loans for leisurely spending, thus making for a significant deceleration in growth. The housing market is clearly slowing down, but data suggest that it is still fighting. This morning’s new home sales rose to 1,234K from last month’s 1180K as a decline to 1,145K was expected.

Previous: Consumer confidence in the world’s largest economy fell by the most since September as high energy costs and interest rates are sobering consumers on the economic outlook. May’s reading of 103.2 kept the indicator in good territory, however it was quite the fall from April’s four-year high of 109.8. The proportion of consumers who expect their incomes to rise in the next six months fell to the lowest in almost three years, while consumers that claim jobs are hard to find rose to 20.5 percent for a yearly high and those that expect better employment opportunities in the next six months fell to 14.6 percent from 15.4 percent. This could join the housing market as one of the markers that the rampant economic growth in the US last year will finally be restrained by less than ideal market conditions that have held the globe in its grip since September of last year.

...more...

Dollar Rally Nearing an End

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Dollar_Rally_Nearing_an_End_1151403575445.html

EUR/USD – As we remarked yesterday, EUR/USD found support at a trendline that began on 2/27 at 1.1825. This line is parallel to a line that connects the 1/24 (1.2321) and 5/15 highs (1.2971). If support holds, then a well defined channel is established and the picture is bullish. The short term bullish picture would be reinforced if the pair sustains a break above a short term resistance line that began on 6/5 at 1.2976. However, immediate resistance is connoted by the 78.6% fibo of 1.2677-1.2481 at 1.2635. Still, if resistance at the downward sloping line holds, then risk to the upside is limited and sellers could mount an attack on the 1.2481 low. A break below there exposes the 50% fibo of 1.1825-1.2971 at 1.2397. Hourly RSI is retreating from near overbought levels and in the current range environment would favor shorts.

<snip>

USD/JPY – USD/JPY continues to hold above the 116.00 figure, albeit barely. The 200 day SMA is still support, now at 116.04. USD/JPY has held up in the face of bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly but scope does remain for weakness to the area bound by the 38.2% and 61.8% fibos of 114.38-116.57 between 115.22/85. The ability of the pair to hold above the 200 day SMA certainly can not be overlooked and as long as price does remain above – then a test of 118.37 is possible (where 1 would = 5 in the rally from 108.96 – see calculation in table below).

<snip>

USD/CAD – The highly touted 1.1250 area was broken briefly but USD/CAD was rejected before 1.1300. Like USD/CHF, Friday’s high reversed off of the upper Bollinger band on the daily – which when combined with the series of daily highs at 1.1250/72 and the 38.2% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1245 – suggests that the path of least resistance is down. However, a break higher above the 6/23 high of 1.1283 could leas to a massive short squeeze as a large amount of selling has taken place at the mentioned 1.1250/72. The immediate picture appears slightly bearish as hourly oscillators are falling. Like, GBP/USD, USD/CAD also saw an inside day yesterday as volatility was low.

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Tue Jun 27, 2006 7:21am ET

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Tuesday that talks with the United States held no benefits for the Islamic Republic.

Washington has offered to join the European Union's direct talks with Iran if Tehran agrees to halt its uranium enrichment work, the key demand in a package that has the backing of six world powers. Iran has so far no replied to that offer.

"Negotiating with America does not have any benefit for us and we do not need such negotiations," Khamenei was quoted as saying by state television.

On Iran's nuclear dispute with the West, Khamenei said: "We will not negotiate with anybody our certain right to reach and use nuclear technology. However, if they recognize this right for us, we are prepared to talk about international controls, supervision and guarantees, and the ground for such negotiations have been prepared."

/more...

15:08 | 26/ 06/ 2006

TEHRAN, June 26 (RIA Novosti) - Tehran is ready to use oil as a weapon to defend its national interests, an official spokesman for the Iranian government said Monday.

"Iran has never said it would restrict itself in the choice of tools to protect its national interests," Gholam Hossein Elkham said, although he ruled out that oil could be used as an illegal way to exert pressure.

<snip>

Petroleum Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said Sunday that Iran would take advantage of all possibilities in the oil sector if sanctions were imposed against the country, and that prices could jump to $100 per barrel in the event of sanctions.

But he added that such sanctions against Iran were likely to prove impossible, because it was difficult to find an alternative to the 2.5 million barrels of oil produced by Iran daily.

/more...

Well, duh! It took a consultant and a study to determine this???

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060626-041651-1372r

CHICAGO, June 26 (UPI) -- Merger activity, such as U.S. investors have experienced recently, raises the prospect of layoffs, a Chicago outplacement consulting firm said Monday.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said deals such as those between Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer, Phelps Dodge and two Canadian mining companies mean companies will want to quickly regain profitability following a large outlay associated with a merger.

Often the most efficient way to do that is to eliminate all of the redundant positions created by the transaction," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/23/AR2006062300665.html

excerpt:

In some ways, the house is a direct product of the Great Depression. Before then, the federal government had followed a strict hands-off policy on housing, relying entirely on the private market to make loans and build. The system had worked pretty well, at least for the affluent, though it had its marked ups and downs during cyclical recessions, even some called "panics." Many people pioneered their land and built their homes themselves with the help of neighbors and relatives.

But real estate boomed in the 1920s, hitting a record construction level in 1925, as lending standards were loosened. Real estate agents told buyers that prices would rise forever, that they had never fallen. People bought the largest houses they could get, stretching to make the payments by using the three-year or five-year interest-only loans that were customary. Those loans cost less each month because borrowers didn't need to make any payments toward the principal on the loan.

Consumers felt confident they would be able to refinance at the end of the loan term, and lenders felt secure because on many of the loans, the debt represented only about 50 percent of the value. But what they overlooked was that many people had taken out other loans as well, sometimes two or three, to make up the difference between the primary loan and the purchase price. They had in fact financed their down payments.

"The system was full of holes," wrote Julian H. Zimmerman, commissioner of the Federal Housing Administration, in 1959, describing the housing market in the 1920s. "Juggling several mortgages was difficult even when the going was good; but when things got rough in the late '20s it became impossible."

Workers lost their jobs; then they lost their homes to the banks that held the loans. About one in six mortgages in America went into foreclosure. Even people who remained employed found they couldn't find buyers for their homes at any price. No lender wanted to refinance short-term loans now seen as risky. President Herbert Hoover watched the downward spiral with horror, immobilized.

...more...

whole article.)

snip>

Amid a surplus of houses and a paucity of buyers, the real estate market languished. To stimulate the housing and lending industries and help renters and moderate-income people buy homes, the Roosevelt administration developed a new kind of insurance program that would cover the losses lenders suffered if homeowners defaulted on their loans. In June 1934, the National Housing Act was passed, creating the Federal Housing Administration loan insurance program. It permitted borrowers to purchase homes with 20 percent down, financed with low-interest, fixed-rate loans to be repaid over 20 years, with mortgages not to exceed $16,000. Adjusted for inflation, that would be a loan value of about $228,000 today. The government in effect promised lenders they would be reimbursed for any losses; home buyers paid a little extra money each month as insurance to cover that expense.

snip>

So it seems relevant to look back at the little Arlington house. It's notable for how much smaller it is than what people think they need today. Even though over the years it has been expanded with a half bath, a sun room and an enlarged family room, it's still a two-bedroom rambler with almost no back yard.

snip>

The house, which is listed for sale with Christian Manachi of AIREC Realty in Vienna, is priced at $625,000, too high to qualify for the FHA program. With a 10 percent down payment, buyers would need to earn at least $90,000 to qualify for the mortgage with today's five-year interest-only loans, and about $180,000 to qualify on traditional, more conservative lending terms with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. :wow:

the value of the loan today ($16k vs $228k) and yet the house is on the market for $625k.

hmmmm....

That's not only frothy, that's bubbly :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3803D8DD%2DC92E%2D4D90%2DA745%2D2B7A6EA5BF31%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- CBRL Group Inc. (CBRL : 36.46, +0.32, +0.9% ) , the parent of Cracker Barrel, said June comparable store restaurant sales fell 3.5%. Average check rose 1.2%. Comparable retail store sales were down 7.3%.

I ate there once - thought it was nasty :eyes:

It's a road food kind of a place. People are probably curbing travel somewhat over last year and maybe even waking up to how BAD that type of food is?

The last time we ate there I felt sick afterwards so we never went back. That was a couple of years ago.

I didn't eat much of what they served - too gross for words - and never returned.

:hi:

Bathrooms are usually pretty clean.

not like you can get those at just ANY restaurant. Just gotta remember to tell them to hold the vinegar! Only been there twice, got turnip greens both times. The first time the waitress asked if I wanted them with vinegar, and I said no. The second time, I wasn't asked and forgot that's how they usually make them - yuk!!! I sent them back and re-ordered. What can I say, I love nearly all kinds of greens!!!

1:06 PM ET 6/27/06 2-YR TREASURY NOTE AUCTION HAS 29.5% INDIRECT BID

1:04 PM ET 6/27/06 2-YR TREASURY NOTE SALE PRODUCES MEDIAN YIELD OF 5.219%

1:05 PM ET 6/27/06 2-YR TREASURY NOTE PRODUCES BID-TO-COVER RATIO OF 2.28

1:03 PM ET 6/27/06 2-YR TREASURY NOTE SALE PRODUCES HIGH YIELD OF 5.239%

but not as RED.

Dow 11,053.05 +7.77 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,136.76 +3.09 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,251.14 +0.58 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 5.216 -0.23 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 51,100,000
Nasdaq Volume 43,027,000

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5.

talk about stumbling out of the gate.

I had to fire off some Call plays yesterday to make some $$$ in the jump up, but I am still leaning on the Bearish side of things

So I wonder if our existing home sales will be up as well today :crazy:

phrase that things started going down hill. All the changes being made were in the name of becoming a "World-class Organization". At quarterly meetings, those of us in middle-management would each make our own list of the top ten latest buzz-words in vogue by upper-management. We'd put a tick mark next to each word for everytime it was used. We would pick up the food and drink tab of the "winner" at one of our "Pub and Grill Peon-management" meetings where we would compare lists to try and fugure out exactly where upper-management had their heads NOW.

Obviously it wasn't the striving for World-class that brought them down, but the lack of leadership and getting "buy in" from the lower ranks. To me, the over use of those types of "buzz-words" without a clear definition are a sign of trouble ahead. First thought is, "oh great, someone's been reading another book again". We'd actually head out to Amazon.com and do a search on some of the top buzzwords to see what they've been reading. :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B329AA7F6%2D20C6%2D4786%2DA0C3%2D872584A6F0E3%7D&symbol=

instead of cutting 1,100 jobs, they are actually cutting 1,900 - creating 800 jobs in Mexico and Turkey!

excerpt:

Nortel said it would cut 1,900 jobs from its global workforce of roughly 35,000. But at the same time, the company will create 800 positions in two new operations centers in Mexico and Turkey to provide engineering, technical support and other services.

Those moves are expected to cost Nortel $100 million over two years, and it will record a $35 million charge against earnings in its fiscal second quarter. By 2008, annual savings from the initiatives could reach as high as $175 million, the company said.

Also, Nortel plans to move all North American employees still in traditional defined-benefit pension plans to defined-contribution plans starting on Jan. 1, 2008 and intended to save Nortel $100 million in annual pension costs.

<snip>

Nortel has also restated financial results stemming from an accounting scandal in 2004 that revealed errors in the company's books extending back as far as 2001.

...more...

:eyes:

had some simple, affordable and elegant solutions for small businesses and remote offices. Great tech support and readily available engineers. Nortel swallowed them up, discountinued the good stuff so you were stuck with Nortel's higher-end (you sure didn't want their low-end crap-o-la). Needless to say, I moved to a completely different vendor instead. Most of the engineers I got to know while they were at Bay moved on before they were axed - sadly a few weren't quick enough. I don't know if any of them are left there (it's been quite a few years now). Hopefully they've all found "greener pastures".

Dow 11,044.16 -1.12 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,135.13 +1.46 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,251.60 +1.04 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 5.220 -0.19 (-0.36%)

NYSE Volume 210,808,000
Nasdaq Volume 171,886,000

09:40 am : Stocks open with little fanfare as ongoing uncertainty surrounding what Thursday's Fed policy statement will imply about the need for more tightening continues to act as an overhang. Helping the major averages cling to paltry gains, though, is more news on the acquisition front, with Univision Communications' (UVN 34.15 +2.12) acceptance of a $12.3 bln takeover garnering most of the attention. Nonetheless, buyers for the most part are showing some reserve ahead of consumer confidence and housing data which will be released at the top of the hour. DJ30 +6.33 NASDAQ +2.21 SP500 +1.32 NASDAQ Vol 90 mln NYSE Vol 64 mln

Dow 11,022.47 -22.81 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,129.80 -3.87 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,250.51 -0.05 (-0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 5.208 -0.31 (-0.59%)

NYSE Volume 371,875,000
Nasdaq Volume 310,333,000

10:00 am : Not much has changed since the opening bell as split industry leadership continues to dictate early action. Energy, as oil prices top $72 per barrel for the first time in two weeks, is by far turning in the best performance (+1.4%) while the other nine economic sectors are posting gains and losses of no more than 0.2%. Health Care is the weakest of the bunch amid further deterioration in medical device makers (e.g. BMET -2.4%, SYK -1.4%, ZMH -3.3%) tied to the recent issuance of Justice Dept. subpoenas. DJ30 +6.49 NASDAQ +3.71 SP500 +1.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 937/1424/200 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1031/1627/168 mln

for S&P? I was thinking it was around 1,245. Might be the one to watch for a bit of "intervention" today. Seems we are at one of those times again (that we've seen before) where propping the S&P holds up the house of cards, if it falls below support the DOW goes with.

they are fighting tooth and nail right now to stay where they are at.

I am just wondering how much pre-built in selling will occur/be established by Thursday's meeting???

from:

http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/markets/

The September S&P 500 index was lower in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1256.13. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1263.53 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If June renews the decline off May’s high, last October’s low crossing at 1200.75 is the next downside target. The September S&P 500 Index was down 2.20 pt. at 1258 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

(edited 'cuz I don't know what happened - but the blurb didn't appear :crazy: )

Tuesday, but could only find them from 2 weeks ago. Guess he didn't do them for 6/20

you got my curiosity up on that question, too!

Am going to go and attempt to be a productive person for a while - will check back in later!

:hi:

Just haven't had a whole lot of ambition the last couple of weeks. :hangover: My ass has been draggin' - not even as much ambition to post on DU as I usually have. I've been reading LBN and the SMW trying to keep up-to-date though. :hi:

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar%2FLayout%2FArticle_Type1&c=Article&cid=1151361017221

excerpt:

What is, surely, something of a big deal is that according to Corporate Library in Washington, the chief executives of the 11 largest companies in the United States earned a combined $865 million over the past two years at the same time as their shareholders lost $640 million.

<snip>

Famously, Americans believe in the "American Dream." This is that any American can start at the bottom and make it to the top.

Factually, this happens to be untrue. Americans who make it to the top tend to start well above halfway up.

Recent studies show about half of all the income disparities in one generation of Americans mirror the disparities that existed in the previous generation. In most of Europe and in Canada, the proportion is only about one-fifth.

The American Dream keeps Americans pacified. But they may soon start to wake up.

In a complete break with history, those workers who are now doing the worst — comparatively — are those in the middle, rather than those at the bottom.

...more...

be combined with "faith-based" thinking on nearly everything - faith that markets always go up, faith that gov't will step in and save our asses, faith that if we stay the course a little bit longer things will work out just fine, etc, etc. There's so much of this faith stuff around that many would deny the truth if it struck them over the head with a 2x4. The faith-based, American Dream re-edumacation combination that I find the most troubling. Critical thinking? HA! That's some damn liberal point of view they are trying to push in our schools - get it out!!!

Looking at the US these days makes me think what it must have been like in the days of Galileo. The Repukes, the Contract on America, the take over of the media --- Americans are being told what and how to think - the truth be damned! They've got us so damned busy trying to make a buck to survive or chasing that American Dream that there's no time to seek the truth and no desire to burst the dream.


Artist: Ellis Paul
Song: Did galileo pray?
Album: Live

When he looked
Into a starry sky upon Jupiter,
With it's cold moons
Making their weary rounds.

Did he know that the Pope
Would claim that he ran with Lucifer
And a prison cell
Would be where he'd lay his head down?

Was he wearing a thorny crown?
When he plotted the motion of planets,
Was Mercury in retrograde?
But he found the truth when a lie was what was demanded.
When the judges asked him pointedly
He was a' trembling that day.

Chorus
Did Galileo pray?
Did Galileo pray?
Did Galileo pray?
Did Galileo pray?

And he said,
"Tell Ptolemy, tell Copernicus,
That the Sun is at the core of us
The Church, the Pope
Can't deny the Milky Way

And every flower that follows the sun,
Has known all along
What God had done
They whisper truth
As the seasons each give way.

Don't shoot the messenger,
The postman delivers Truth today.
And Truth will march in Birmingham
It will block the tanks in Tiananmen.
Put the judges on the witness stand
Let's see what they all say.

Chorus

In the heavens you'll see it
As God has conceived it.
Oh, believe it.
Oh, what have you got to do to believe?

Don't shoot the messenger,
When the postman brings you truth today.
Because truth will march in Birmingham
It will block the tanks in Tiananmen
Put the judges on the witness stand,
Let's see what they all say.

Chorus

Dow 11,013.74 -31.54 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,123.34 -10.33 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,248.93 -1.63 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 5.204 -0.35 (-0.67%)

NYSE Volume 630,429,000
Nasdaq Volume 535,964,000

10:30 am : Indices spike lower and now trade at their lowest levels of the morning following mixed economic data. May existing home sales check in at a 6.67 mln annual rate, providing further confirmation that the housing market is proving reasonably resilient to rising mortgage rates; however, the third decline in five months to the lowest levels since January acts as a reminder that economic growth is slowing. To wit, bonds have improved on the news as the yield on the 10-yr note (+08/32) slips to 5.19%Separately, June Consumer Confidence unexpectedly rose to 105.7, but since the data do not correlate well with consumer spending, the report has done little to get buyers excited.DJ30 -14.49 NASDAQ -3.99 SP500 -0.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1284/1298/370 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1203/1665/298 mln

Dow 10,989.01 -56.27 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,116.60 -17.07 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,246.25 -4.31 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 5.210 -0.29 (-0.55%)

NYSE Volume 698,609,000
Nasdaq Volume 602,104,000

11:00 am : Stocks extend their reach into negative territory, spearheaded by a 2.8% drubbing in chip stocks. Marvell Technology Group (MRVL 45.46 -6.44) is off 12.5% after management said its $600 mln purchase of Intel Corp.'s (INTC 18.33 +0.05) communications and application processor business will initially be dilutive. A recent pullback in Intel, which was up as much as 2.3% earlier on the news but now up only 0.3%, is offering limited support.DJ30 -30.17 NASDAQ -8.94 SOX -2.8% SP500 -0.95 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1373/1310/514 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1266/1700/408 mln

:hi:

hour has to offer. :eyes:

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060626-mon.html#anchor0

snip past the sun up yer butt BS, cuz right now I'm not as trusting of the CBs as Roach>

In the end, global rebalancing can’t occur without a shift in the global liquidity cycle -- a withdrawal of the high-octane fuel that has given rise to a multitude of asset bubbles since the late 1990s. If central banks have the wisdom and the courage to stay this course, asset-driven saving imbalances will finally be addressed. Investors have long presumed this day of reckoning would be postponed indefinitely. They had become hooked on the now infamous “Greenspan put” -- the seemingly perpetual willingness of the world’s dominant central bank to bail out disorderly markets. Yet this approach was ultimately destined to fail -- it was a breeding ground for the systemic risks of ever-mounting global imbalances and a moral hazard that could only end in tears. In my view, that’s what this debate is actually all about -- whether the world’s major central banks are finally about to close the book on the Greenspan era. The tension between global rebalancing and the liquidity cycle could well be key to rendering this verdict for world financial markets.

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/260620063.html

snip>

There are two kinds of inflation. There is the kind that everyone hates – when prices for cigarettes and beer go up. And there is the kind that everyone likes – when prices of their houses and stocks go up. The Fed has become an 'inflation hawk,' they say, because it is becoming vigilant about increases in consumer prices.
Raising interest rates is supposed to mean it's girding its loins to fight them. But – depending on how you measure it – cost of living is rising no more than it has been for years - each year, consumer dollars loses 2% to 5% of their purchasing power. And who complains?
No one.

The risk from consumer price inflation is only more consumer price inflation. But we don't think that is the risk that the Fed really fears. We don't think that is why Ben Bernanke is loading the gun. And we don't think it's what he intends to shoot. No. Americans aren't upset about consumer price inflation. They desperately need it. Without it, they wouldn't be able to pay their bills. Without it, they would not be able to refinance its own massive debts. The whole economy needs the sweet bubbly of inflation to keep effervescing. Imagine if debtors had to make payments in money that was costlier and harder to get hold of...

It's the risk from the second type of inflation that is the real danger, because asset price inflation is usually chased by asset price deflation. After prices go up, they must go down. A bear market follows a bull market. Bubbles are popped. And all of a sudden investors don't feel so wealthy. They cancel new investments. They cut off new projects. They pull back and the whole economy pulls back with them. This is what happened in Japan…and it is what Ben Bernanke has had his eye on for many years.

Only, today, asset price inflation threatens much more serious damage in America than it ever did in Japan. Japan's lower and middle classes were never lured into outrageous levels of debt as they have been in America. In the land of the free, the lumpen mistook the Fed's bonanza for real wealth. They thought they could 'take out' money from their houses, even though they couldn't remember ever putting it in. They began to believe that this brand of inflation was the same as the other and that they could depend on regular, reliable increases in their house values. Why not just spend the money, they asked themselves.

more...

Dow 10,961.49 -83.79 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,110.00 -23.67 (-1.11%)
S&P 500 1,243.59 -6.97 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 5.208 -0.31 (-0.59%)

NYSE Volume 1,187,484,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,003,491,000

1:00 pm : Indices continue to languish near session lows as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Tires and Rubber (-3.9%) is pacing the way and extending its year-to-date leading 36% decline after Bridgestone slashed its profit forecast by 35%. Homebuilding ranks second, both as the worst performer on the day (-2.9%) and the year (-29.7%) following disappointing housing data, while the return of 0% financing at GM has left Autos (-2.6%) as today's third poorest performing SnP industry group. DJ30 -90.52 NASDAQ -25.37 SP500 -7.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2023/873/976 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2095/1073/784 mln

12:30 pm : Stocks remain weak across the board as trading works its way through the New York lunch hour. Bonds, however, continue to post respectable gains across the yield curve, partly in response to the sell-off in stocks. However, much of today’s recovery effort in the wake of nine consecutive losing sessions has been driven largely by short-covering as traders square-up their positions ahead of a two-day FOMC meeting which kicks off tomorrow. The yield on the 10-yr note has fallen to 5.20% compared to a yield on the 2-yr note of 5.236%, below the 5.25% where policy makers are expected to raise the overnight lending rate.DJ30 -95.05 NASDAQ -22.85 SP500 -7.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1867/1004/888 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1891/1245/712 mln

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-27T163211Z_01_N27350867_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-MORGANSTANLEY-SEC-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) - U.S securities regulators on Tuesday said Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc. (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) had agreed to pay $10 million to settle charges that it failed to maintain proper procedures to prevent the misuse of insider information.

"Morgan Stanley failed to conduct any surveillance of a massive number of employee accounts held at the firm and trading in certain securities in those and other accounts," the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said.

The firm had a "systematic breakdown" in the mandatory compliance function of monitoring accounts and the trading of certain securities to detect insider trading, the SEC said.


The SEC statement detailed five violations, some of which began as early as 1997 and continued through this year.

According to the SEC, Morgan Stanley did not conduct any "Watch List" surveillance on hundreds of thousands of employee and employee-related accounts searching for possible insider trading. A company would be added to a brokerage's watch list if the brokerage has inside information on that company.

...more...

See! These guys really do have the consumers' interests as most important factor! :sarcasm:

Dow 10,943.07 -102.21 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 2,106.30 -27.37 (-1.28%)
S&P 500 1,242.80 -7.76 (-0.62%)
10-yr Bond 52.20 -0.19 (-0.36%)
30-yr Bond 52.50 -0.22 (-0.42%)
NYSE Volume 1,563,806,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,303,644,000

2:30 pm : Stocks are retracing session lows as oil prices turning negative prompts investors to consolidate some of the Energy sector's gains. As the only sector finding any support, the absence of its leadership removes what little earnings potential induced enthusiasm investors were trying to take away from a dismal day for stocks. DJ30 -109.02 NASDAQ -29.48 SP500 -8.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 2011/961 NYSE Dec/Adv 2028/1171

2:00 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. The same can't be said for Treasuries, though, which have continued to weaken following a mediocre $22 bln 2-yr note auction. Even though indirect bidder participation was fairly high at 29.5%, helping ease worries about foreign central banks' interest in U.S. assets, the relief rally continues to fade amid uncertainty about Thursday's Fed policy directive. The 10-yr note is now up only 3 ticks, inching the yield of 5.21% closer to the projected Fed Funds rate of 5.25%.DJ30 -79.00 NASDAQ -20.91 SP500 -6.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2022/937/1.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2042/1141/942 mln

1:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the Nasdaq continues to outpace the blue chip averages to the downside, adding a 1.0% pullback to its 2006 loss of 3.2%. Among the many areas that have weighed on the particularly tech-heavy Composite this year -- Internet Services (-22.8%), Home Entertainment Software (-20.6%), Internet Retail (-17.8%) and Semiconductors (-14.6%), the latter has been the biggest drag today. To wit, all 19 components in the PHLX Semi Sector Index are posting notable losses.DJ30 -78.10 NASDAQ -20.55 SOX -3.4% SP500 -5.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2038/904/1.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2102/1067/858 mln

1:00 pm : Indices continue to languish near session lows as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Tires and Rubber (-3.9%) is pacing the way and extending its year-to-date leading 36% decline after Bridgestone slashed its profit forecast by 35%. Homebuilding ranks second, both as the worst performer on the day (-2.9%) and the year (-29.7%) following disappointing housing data, while the return of 0% financing at GM has left Autos (-2.6%) as today's third poorest performing SnP industry group. DJ30 -90.52 NASDAQ -25.37 SP500 -7.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2023/873/976 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2095/1073/784 mln

12:30 pm : Stocks remain weak across the board as trading works its way through the New York lunch hour. Bonds, however, continue to post respectable gains across the yield curve, partly in response to the sell-off in stocks. However, much of today’s recovery effort in the wake of nine consecutive losing sessions has been driven largely by short-covering as traders square-up their positions ahead of a two-day FOMC meeting which kicks off tomorrow. The yield on the 10-yr note has fallen to 5.20% compared to a yield on the 2-yr note of 5.236%, below the 5.25% where policy makers are expected to raise the overnight lending rate.DJ30 -95.05 NASDAQ -22.85 SP500 -7.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1867/1004/888 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1891/1245/712 mln

12:00 pm : The major averages remain at their worst levels midday as mixed economic data do little to ease concerns about the Fed possibly going too far with its tightening effort a day before the next FOMC meeting begins.

With 30 minutes before the opening bell, May existing home sales checked in at a 6.67 mln annual rate, providing further confirmation that the housing market is proving reasonably resilient to rising mortgage rates. Be that as it may, the third decline in five months to the lowest levels since January has merely acted as a reminder that economic growth is slowing. Even though the Treasury market has taken notice, as evidenced by the 10-yr note yield falling for the first time in 10 days to 5.19%, ongoing uncertainty surrounding what Thursday's Fed policy statement will imply about the need for more rate hikes is offsetting the positive implications of a decline in borrowing costs.

Of the eight economic sectors trading lower, Technology is pacing the way, led by 3.1% sell-off in semiconductor. Marvell Technology Group (MRVL 45.18 -6.72) announced a $600 mln purchase of Intel Corp.'s (INTC 18.29 +0.01) communications and application processor business, which underscores the robust end-market demand for smart devices/handsets; however, shares have plummeted 13% after management said the acquisition will initially be dilutive. Intel's inability to hold onto as much as a 2.3% gain early on also questions the growth prospects of the underperforming semiconductor space.

On the flip side, Energy is turning in an impressive 1.1% performance as crude oil climbs back above $72 a barrel amid shipment disruptions in the Gulf and speculation that tomorrow's inventories data will show another smaller than anticipated build in weekly gas supplies. Even though the sector's gain bodes well for another strong earnings contribution for the SnP 500, the impact rising oil prices can have on consumer spending is taking precedence and reminding investors that "elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressures."

Consumer Discretionary has been in focus now that Univision (UVN 34.19 +2.16) has finally found a willing buyer, accepting a $12.3 bln takeover which plays into our positive opinion surrounding the emerging growth opportunities in media. However, the sector has lost ground as higher gas prices weigh on retailers and following a reversal in shares of General Motors (GM 26.43 -1.32). The stock was up as much as 2.2%, but management reintroducing 0% financing through early July and warning of difficult year/year sales comparisons this summer has more than offset early excitement tied to 35,000 hourly workers opting for buyouts. DJ30 -79.72 NASDAQ -15.67 SP500 -5.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1717/1116/786 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1723/1389/622 mln

Dow 10,938.66 -106.62 (-0.97%)
Nasdaq 2,102.52 -31.15 (-1.46%)
S&P 500 1,240.86 -9.70 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 5.216 -0.23 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 1,679,848,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,396,206,000

3:00 pm : The bottom continues to fall out of the market as sellers remain in complete control going into the final hour of trading. The SnP 500, which is back in negative territory for the year, has failed to find support near the 1241 level while the Nasdaq has just broken through support of 2103. DJ30 -111.51 NASDAQ -31.91 SP500 -9.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2180/839/1.39 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2212/996/1.14 bln

2:30 pm : Stocks are retracing session lows as oil prices turning negative prompts investors to consolidate some of the Energy sector's gains. As the only sector finding any support, the absence of its leadership removes what little earnings potential induced enthusiasm investors were trying to take away from a dismal day for stocks. DJ30 -109.02 NASDAQ -29.48 SP500 -8.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 2011/961 NYSE Dec/Adv 2028/1171

a feeble attempt at best. Some people love to hurt themselves:crazy:

(other people's money)

:toast: here is a toast to the American Way

it's going to take an extra potent brew to make a difference.

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 902 (26%) 794 (25%)
Declines 2327 (69%) 2226 (71%)
Unchanged 133 (3%) 115 (3%)

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Up Vol* 341 (20%) 183 (13%)
Down Vol* 1281 (78%) 1193 (86%)
Unch. Vol* 13 (0%) 9 (0%)

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New Hi's 35 57
New Lo's 207 124

Dow 10,953.55 -91.73 (-0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,107.74 -25.92 (-1.21%)
S&P 500 1,243.34 -7.22 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 5.210 -0.29 (-0.55%)

NYSE Volume 1,794,618,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,489,417,000

an update.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=95863

As every political junky in the country now knows, just before finding himself not indicted by Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald, Karl Rove went to a fundraiser in New Hampshire and launched the Republican campaign for the 2006 midterm elections. Its simple goal was to keep a Democratic majority (and so the power to investigate) out of either house of Congress. He promptly attacked Rep. John Murtha and other Democrats for their "cut and run" attitudes on Iraq. ("They may be with you for the first shots, but they're not going... to be with you for the tough battles.") He swore that the administration had been right to take out Saddam Hussein ("We have no excuses to make for it...") and proposed a new version of the administration's most successful post-9/11 ploy -- the constant linking of Saddam Hussein to the al-Qaeda attacks. Now, he would link the wreckage of administration policy in Iraq to future terrorist attacks. If we "cut and run," he pointed out in a fabulous Mobius strip of political logic, "It would provide a launching pad for the terrorists to strike the United States and the West."

His President had only recently announced the turning of "the tide" in Iraq with the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the installation of a new Iraqi government in Baghdad's Green Zone. Vice President Cheney would soon answer a question about whether we were still in the "last throes" of the Iraqi insurgency by insisting that the Democrats wanted to "bail out" just as we were "making very significant progress" in Iraq. The Congressional Republicans, whatever their private hesitations, were brought into line with the Rove plan and launched the sort of offensive that, in the past, has proven so ineffective in Iraq and so effective at home.

Given the disaster that Iraq actually is, some alterations of argument were obviously in order. Put in terms of Colin Powell's infamous "Pottery Barn rule" ("If you break it, you own it"), this particular formulation would go something like: You've barged into Pottery Barn, an invading bull in a China shop and you've been breaking things right and left ever since; management, employees, and other customers are enraged, so what choice do you have but to stay and keep breaking things? Bail out now and all those angry folks will be heading for your house to break your things.

Once upon a time, this administration's top officials and associated neocons dreamed of shock-and-awing the Middle East into the shape they wanted, settling into Iraq for the long haul, dominating the planet in geopolitical and energy terms, ensuring that no nation or bloc of nations would ever again challenge the U.S. and, in the bargain, installing the Republicans as the dominant domestic party for at least a generation. Now, forced to hitch their fates to the President's disastrous war, they simply hope to squeak through the mid-term elections and, two years later, hand ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan off to another president. Joshua Marshall of the Talking Points Memo website recently described the President as "like an owner of a business that's slowly going under… And he won't just liquidate and save what he can, because then he'd have to come to grips with the fact that he's failed. So his policy is denial and slow failure. Here of course the analogy to President Bush is rather precise since he only has to hold out until 2009 when he can give the problem to someone else, just as he did in his past life with other businesses he drove into the ground."

In fact, whether it works or not, Rove's political gamble is breathtakingly bold in its simplicity. He's throwing the dice on a single proposition: That, in the end, Americans will prefer the illusion of living in a Green-Zone world all the way and so will swallow the Green-Zone fictions that go with it.

Let's consider, then, a few small pieces of the Green-Zone world our President has created:

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060627/treasury_paulson.html?.v=18

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Treasury Secretary-designate Henry Paulson pledged Tuesday to review a once secret program that allowed the government to access a massive international database of financial information to catch terrorists financiers.

"If confirmed, I'll be all over it ... and make sure I understand the law thoroughly," Paulson, a 32-year veteran of Wall Street, told the Senate Finance Committee during his confirmation hearing that touched on a wide range of topics.

Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., was upset that the administration did not brief the Senate Finance Committee on the terror-tracking program, which has stirred some concern among privacy advocates and some Democrats. Last week's public disclosure of the program's existence, angered the Bush administration, which said it could hobble their efforts to shut down avenues for terrorist fundraising.

In response to a request by Baucus, Paulson pledged to personally review the program after he takes the Treasury helm.

Paulson said that he would have to "get my arms around" the issue of a program that the Treasury Department has used since shortly after the Sept 11, 2001, terror attacks, to track activity by suspected terrorist financiers. He said he had not been briefed on the program, but said that weighing people's financial privacy with fighting the global war on terror is a delicate balancing act.

more...

DJIA is at it's session lows.


EVERYONE ABANDON SHIP

repeat

EVERYONE ABANDON SHIP

please exit the vehicle,


y'all come back now y'a hear!!!!

What about cash (currency) did that go down or up? Did they all invest in some other part of the world today or was it that there just a lot of extra room under the ole mattress?

Probably something to do with Mr Buffet :shrug:

How many people will think that the market is oversold and rush in on early Wednesday for bargain hunting?

Especially one day before the Fed's meeting, or to put it another way, has the market already obtained a built in established sell off point before Thursday's meeting?

Just wondering


I am seeing a false UP market in the morning followed by reality for the rest of the day JMHO

Why should this week be any different?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060626.RFED26/TPStory/Business

WASHINGTON -- It's called the blackout period. In the week before and after a rate-setting meeting, the 12 members of the U.S. federal policy-making committee carefully avoid talking publicly about monetary policy.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has taken the informal rule one step further. Days before this week's pivotal meeting in Washington, Mr. Bernanke moved to consolidate his grip on the Fed by overseeing the departures of two key voting members. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Jack Guynn announced his retirement after a 42-year career at the bank, while Fed governor Mark Olson said he's leaving to head up a newly created accounting industry regulator.

The shakeup comes as Mr. Bernanke, who is nearing his six-month anniversary in the job, is struggling to convince investors that he's firmly in control of the U.S. central bank and its monetary policy. And some economists worry that an internal power struggle could cause the Fed to push too hard on the inflationary brakes with excessive rate hikes.

"There are signs that the board of governors is divided," says Petter Lundvik, an economist at Handelsbanken Capital Markets of Norway. "It is not obvious that Ben Bernanke can take control over policy decisions that are formally taken by a vote. The struggle for power might result in the Fed raising rates too much, given the lags in monetary policy."

snip>

Among Mr. Guynn's liabilities is that he firmly opposed inflation targets -- one of Mr. Bernanke's "core policy beliefs," argued economist Daniel Jester of Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. (Mr. Bernanke has talked repeatedly about a 1 to 2 per cent "comfort zone" for the core consumer price index -- the key inflation-tracking measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices). Mr. Guynn is also a well-known "dove" on the committee, and over the years has preferred to err on the side of too much monetary juice, rather than too little.

Mr. Olson, on the other hand, has been a virtual ghost at the Fed since U.S. President George W. Bush appointed him a governor in 2001.

more...

6 points a month, on average.

0.20 points a day.

:party:

we manage to impeach the bastard). I'm guessing Chimponomics will end much lower from where he started.

:patriot: