STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 23

Source: DU

Monday July 23, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 549/font] LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2390 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2102 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2063
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 20, 2007

Dow... 13,851.08 -149.33 (-1.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,687.60 -32.44 (-1.19%)
S&P 500... 1,534.10 -18.98 (-1.22%)
Gold future... 684.70 +6.60 (+0.96%)
30-Year Bond 5.06% -0.05 (-1.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.96% -0.07 (-1.43%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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Read more: DU

Rise and Shine?
BY BRIAN PRETTI

Is it gold and gold shares' time to rise and shine? Of course we all wish we had a definitive answer, but we'll just have to see how it all plays out. To be honest, I still maintain a favorable long-term outlook for some very simple reasons. First, I’m convinced inflation will be an important thematic issue ahead, with implications for all investment decisions. I’m talking over a period of years here, not weeks or months. Secondly, I’m of the opinion that the melt down in sub prime and Alt-A mortgage paper will be a much bigger issue than market participants believe at the current time, ultimately leading to the macro repricing upward of risk in the credit markets over time. Both of these themes, if they are even close to being correct, suggest there will be upward pressure on longer-term interest rates stateside over time. And lastly, almost a week doesn't pass these days when yet another global sovereign entity declares its intention to "diversify" away from holding too many US dollars as part of their total reserve holdings. Again, trying to keep it very simple, this all speaks favorably for gold as a global asset class. As for short-term wiggles and jiggles in the price of the metal and the stocks that represent them, I plead guilty as to not having much of a clue.

But in the spirit of trying to listen to the ongoing message of the markets, and trying also to have some type of a sense of historical rhythm, below are a few charts hopefully helpful to review. First a look back. Let's start off with the monthly seasonality of gold prices over the prior three and one half decades. This is exactly what we are looking at below.

-see chart-

Of course historical experience is all well and good, but what about the here and now? Is there anything we can hang our hats upon that might be saying something about the near term for gold and the shares? To be honest, I've put together a chart of the XAU below that I believe may indeed be saying something very important about the potential for near term performance. As you'll see, there's a lot going on in this technical view of life. The basis of the chart is clearly the XAU itself. As is self evident, the top section is the weekly RSI indicator where I’ve drawn in historical patterns of declining tops trends in the RSI being broken to the upside. In the third section of the chart below shows us the performance of the XAU relative to the metal itself. Again, I've done the same thing and drawn in the experiences where the relative performance declining tops trend lines have been broken to the upside, as the stocks started to outperform the metal itself. Next comes the relative performance of the XAU set against the S&P. One more time, declining tops trend lines drawn in.

-chart-

So here we stand today with what appears to be an upside break out in the RSI. Also an upside break of the XAU relative to gold itself. And for now, a possible break out of the XAU set against the S&P 500. This same technical set up that produced these no miss rallies of the past is again in place. Is past prologue? Of course I wish I could say with certainty to jump in with both feet, but no one knows what lies ahead. This chart is telling us that until proven otherwise, statistical probability is indeed on the side of higher XAU prices ahead. Lastly, and this is certainly more of an intuitive comment than not, I believe recent prior period sentiment regarding gold has been extremely poor. Many of the large cap bellwethers such as Newmont haven't been punished; they have been taken out to the woodshed and beaten senseless in terms of price. Disappointment and give up has reigned. At least as per the message of what appears to be the very important chart above, combined with the seasonal historical data, that may be all about to change. Let's face it, is there anyone with any credibility at all out there calling for a potential big run in the XAU? That has to be the last thought on investor minds at the moment, even the supposed twisted minds of the gold bugs.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Oil prices fell Monday after exports from an oil facility in Angola resumed and amid expectations that U.S. gasoline demand will start to ease from the highs seen during the peak of its summer driving season.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 32 cents to $75.47 a barrel in electronic trading by afternoon in Europe. The contract had fallen 28 cents Friday.

September Brent crude lost 56 cents to $77.08 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Total SA said Friday it would resume exports from its 240,000 barrel-a-day Dalia field facility in Angola. Crude oil prices had risen Thursday to near an 11-month high when the company declared force majeure — a contractual clause absolving a supplier for delivery delays beyond its control — after an electrical problem cut production at the facility by more than half.

-cut-

Refinery problems in the U.S. Midwest have also supported prices throughout the spring and early summer in the Northern Hemisphere, but U.S. refineries are returning to service, adding to the sentiment among investors that gasoline prices have peaked for the year.

Still, volatility will likely continue in oil futures markets, with investment funds betting prices will rise despite weak fundamentals, analysts say.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070723:MTFH83779_2007-07-23_12-11-14_SP208560&type=comktNews&rpc=44

LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - Oil edged lower towards $77 a barrel on Monday, with the market keenly watching the actions of funds after OPEC expressed concern over near record prices and pledged to pump more crude if needed.

OPEC President and United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said on Sunday that oil's strength was a worry but the world economy was still growing in spite of it.

London Brent crude <LCOc1>, now more reflective of global prices than U.S. oil, slid 29 cents to $77.35 a barrel by 1146 GMT, off lows of $76.91. It hit $78.40 last week, just shy of its all-time high of $78.65 hit last August.

U.S. crude <CLc1> traded 44 cents lower at $75.35.

"The statement is important ... as it could be the first indication that OPEC may be willing to consider easing up on its supply allocations at its September meeting, and could be accounting for the softer opening we are seeing so far today," a Man Financial report said.

Analysts said oil was also pulled lower by a report citing the head of OPEC's research division saying a fair price for producers and consumers would be around $60-$65. Continued...

/...

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks headed for a flat open Monday as Wall Street prepares for a busy week and tries to determine whether stocks have further room to push higher.

Though stock futures showed little movement early Monday, investors could receive a shot of optimism from word that equipment rental company United Rentals Inc. agreed to be taken private by affiliates of Cerberus Capital Management LP for about $4 billion in cash.

The deal, for $34.50 per share, represents a 7 percent premium over United's closing price of $32.37 Friday. It's also a 25 percent premium to the stock's closing price of $27.55 on April 10, the day the company said it was exploring strategic options.

-cut-

With no major economic data expected investors will be able to concentrate fully on earnings.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070723/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.321 Change +0.128 (+0.16%)

Buck Burned By Big Ben

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Buck_Burned_By_Big_Ben_1185167042068.html

At the start of the week the EURUSD showed all the signs of consolidation and the dollar even started a mild rally as the pair broke below the 1.3800 barrier. But Ben Bernanke’ s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday stopped all dollar bullish sentiment dead in its tracks as the Fed chairman painted an ominous economic landscape facing the country. As we noted on Thursday, “Dr. Bernanke’s candid comments regarding the state of the US housing sector (which he noted continued to slow due to lack of demand and more stringent credit criteria) knocked dollar bulls for a loop as it suggested the risk of further contraction for the US economy. Although the chairman reaffirmed his hawkish bias, in effect telegraphing to the market that short term rates were unlikely to be cut anytime soon, the Fed did lower its 2008 GDP forecast by 25bp from 2.75%-3.00% to 2.50%-2.75% range and that may have been the key factor in triggering a new round of dollar liquidation.”

Next week housing data may determine whether we test the 1.400 barrier or recede back from the highs. The sub-prime fiasco continues to weigh heavily in the background as traders fear additional bankruptcies in the sector. Yet another round of weaker than expected data would only exacerbate those fears and could push the EURUSD to 1.3900 and beyond. On the other hand with forecasts already low if the housing sector could demonstrate some stabilization, the greenback may get a boost especially if Durable Goods and GDP data show signs of a rebound. In short while dollar longs look to be on the edge of collapse, the drive to 1.40 is not a foregone conclusion. -BS

...more...

Dollar, Bond Yields and Dow All See Major Losses: Is this THE Turn?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dollar__Bond_Yields_and_Dow_1184963741575.html

With no economic data released today, the only thing that could rattle the currency markets was a reversal in US stocks. Not only did a reversal actually occur, but bond yields also fell sharply, triggering major losses in the both the US dollar and carry trades. Many people may be wondering, what happened? There were rumors that a German bank will be reporting large subprime losses and also talk that Standard and Poor’s could be downgrading European mortgages. The contagion effect warned by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier this week has now become global, which is clearly too much for speculators to handle. Banks on Wall Street are reporting that hedge funds are bailing out of USD/JPY big time, which explains the sharp move in the currency pair today. Ten year bond yields broke below the psychologically important 5 percent mark, leaving the curve relatively flat at the moment. The triple digit losses in the Dow could extend for at least a few more days which lead us to wonder whether this is THE turn in the markets. Possibly. Bernanke made a mild but clear shift in his outlook for the economy and monetary policy this week. He has warned about the subprime sector and if a German bank truly reports a big loss as rumored, then a rise in risk aversion is certainly warranted. With the subprime sector being watched so closely, next week’s reports of existing, new and pending home sales will be particularly market moving. Should the rumors about the German bank prove unfounded and the housing data fails to show further deterioration, do not be surprised to see a return of risk appetite. The market’s tolerance for risk over the past few months has been far greater than anyone may have initially anticipated. Looking ahead, aside from the housing market reports, we are also expecting the Beige Book release, durable goods and the advance release of second quarter GDP. It should continue to be an exciting trading week.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=102
...more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070723:MTFH82285_2007-07-23_11-01-59_BRU005857&type=comktNews&rpc=44

BRUSSELS, 23 June (Reuters) - France reiterated on Monday it was worried by the strong euro, which continued to test new high against foreign currencies, including the U.S. dollar.

"There is a clear element of worry," Herve Novelli, France's secretary of state in charge of foreign trade, told reporters during a meeting of European Union foreign ministers.

"Of course we are not indifferent to the possible difficulties that the too strong euro would mean for exports outside the euro zone," he said, adding however that the euro zone's monetary policy rested in the hands of the European Central Bank.

<late edit to add to today's dashboard:

Watch on Swiss Franc (CHF), Pound Sterling (GBP)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1503

Good day... The currency markets held steady yesterday as traders continued to digest Bernanke's testimony and compared it to the minutes of the June 28 FOMC meeting which were released in the early afternoon. It seems everyone is trying to figure out what direction the Fed will take as our economy continues to drift toward a very scary scenario of very low growth (nearing recession) with rising inflation. Yesterday's big data release was the Leading Indicators, a measure of the economy's future direction, which fell more than forecast in June.

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators declined .3% after rising a revised .2 percent in May. The reason given for the fall? The housing slump! Separately, the Fed of Philadelphia's manufacturing index also fell last month. These figures suggest the economy will slow in the second half of the year after probably growing about 3 percent last quarter. So where does that leave the Fed's predictions of a 2nd-half recovery?

The only other data released yesterday showed weekly jobless claims held above 300k and continuing claims crept up to over 2570k. The job market isn't worsening, but it sure isn't getting any better either. But according to the minutes of the FOMC meeting, the employment picture isn't really concerning Bernanke. While he nibbled around the edges of the housing problem in his remarks yesterday and the day before, Fed policy makers still believe the U.S. will expand at a moderate pace in the second half of 2007. The currency markets don't buy it, and the dollar continues to trend off.

more...

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/jul202007.html


During his testimony before Congress this week, Ben Bernanke didn't hesitate to opine on a number of topics that had very little to do with his mandate as Fed Chairman. The wealth gap, racial factors in income inequality, and the impact of capital gains tax policy were all fair game. But when queried about the one issue where his impact is unrivaled, the value of the U.S. dollar, the Chairman quickly passed the buck to the Secretary of the Treasury. Conveniently, the Secretary was nowhere in sight.

This should come as a surprise to no one, but the Fed sets monetary policy in the United States. The last time I checked, money in the United States is the dollar. Therefore monetary policy is in fact dollar policy. The supply of dollars is regulated by the Federal Reserve, with ostensibly no interference by the Federal government. The Fed also independently sets short-term interest rates, which are a huge factor in determining the dollar’s value. In other words, the Fed controls both the supply of and yield on dollars. Bernanke claims to be worried about inflation, yet will say nothing about the value of the dollar. Prices rise as a result of the dollar losing value. How then can he ignore the persistent weakness in the dollar and refuse to comment on its effects on domestic inflation?

Why defer to the Secretary of the Treasury? Other than signing the bills, what does he have to do with monetary policy? As a member of the Cabinet, the Secretary's job is to advise the President on economic matters, manage the finances of the United States, help plan the budget and oversee appropriations. He has no control over either money supply or interest rates. That power was delegated to the Fed in 1913. Potentially, the Treasury Secretary could authorize using our meager foreign exchange reserves to buy dollars, but given our limited bank account of foreign currency, such intervention would be more embarrassing than effective. There is literally nothing the Secretary can do except repeat the useless mantra “A strong dollar is in our national interest.”

more...

of the ₤ Sterling and, for example, € €uro, NZ, Aus, Canadian dollars, etc. from the dollar index (à la CPI) and watch it soar (though the Thai Bhat looks a bit dodgy, just now...)!

I mean, let's be realistic here, who needs to take vacations in (ed: or trade with) those parts of the world where they use that weird foreign currency, after all. Effing traitorous 'liberal' commies, that's who!111!HUGH.

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1506

This week will bring us more data on the status of the U.S. housing market, so don't look for any turnaround in the dollar's recent slide. Today's data cupboard is empty, and tomorrow will only bring us Richmond's Fed index and the ABC Consumer Confidence number. Wednesday should be a good one for the currencies as we will get the MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales, and the Fed's Beige book. Thursday will bring us the weekly jobs data along with Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. The Durable Goods number is expected to be positive but will be more than offset by the New Home Sales numbers.

Finally, we will end the week on Friday with the 2nd quarter GDP reports, which are expected to show U.S. economic growth accelerated last quarter, paced by a rebound in manufacturing and growing exports. GDP is expected to come in at 3.2%, which would be the highest in a year after the economy grew just .7% in the first quarter. I don't expect the number to be as strong as expected, so don't look for any big rally in the US$ to end the week.

The euro hit a new high of $1.3845 in European trading before moving back down. The euro was supported after ECB executive board member Lorenzo Smaghi indicated he sees no reason for concern about the currency's appreciation, saying it reflects the strength of the 13-nation region's economy. By contrast, "the weakness of the dollar reflects the weakness of the U.S. economy," Bini Smaghi said in an interview with the Italian news program TG1 today.

more....

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B424b6d6b%2Dfb4f%2D4b33%2Db8f1%2D949546915665%7D

The dollar dropped to a record low against the euro and a 26-year trough against the pound on Monday as pressure on the US currency mounted. Gavin Friend at Commerzbank said the big picture of the Federal Reserve keeping US interest rates on hold while other global central banks continued to tighten rates was weighing on the dollar. “The dollar looks to be starting the new week much as it ended last – extending its gradual but unrelenting decline,” he said. Analysts said fears over the turmoil in the US subprime mortgage and credit markets were also weighing on the dollar. “We continue to see the subprime and credit concerns as a US, rather than global issue,” said David Woo at Barclays Capital. “As such we expect broader dollar weakness to remain the key themes in the foreign exchange markets this week.” The dollar was little changed at $1.3825 against the euro, having hit an all-time low of $1.3844 earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the pound hit a 26-year high of $2.0603 against the dollar, before easing back to stand at $2.0580, still up 0.1 per cent on the session.

DETROIT -- Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. have more at stake than usual as they begin their traditional talks with United Auto Workers: cutting labor costs may be key to their survival.

The traditional handshake ceremonies with the union were to begin Monday with GM in Detroit and Ford in Dearborn, although talks already have been under way for months. The union formally opened negotiations with Chrysler Group on Friday, and the national contracts with all three expire Sept. 14.

The three automakers lost a combined $15 billion in 2006 and are in the midst of shrinking themselves and rolling out new vehicles to better compete with Japanese companies. Industry analysts have said reducing labor costs is critical.

-cut-

The Detroit automakers say their hourly labor costs are about $25 more than those of Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. when health care, pension, retiree and other costs are factored in.

-cut-

All three must deal with rising health care costs and the "jobs bank," in which companies pay workers most of their salaries when their assembly lines aren't running. She said her studies have shown that the three automakers pay $1,200 to $1,500 per car in health care costs, far more than the Japanese automakers.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1110AP_Auto_Talks.html

So when will all these multi-national corporations quit calling themselves "american"?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070723/bs_nm/jpmorgan_china_dc

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Wall Street bank JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM - news) said on Monday it had won final approval to set up a wholly owned unit in China to strengthen its wholesale banking business in the world's fastest growing major economy.

This move will make JPMorgan the second U.S. bank to incorporate in China, after Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - news) did so early this year, while more than a dozen foreign banks queue to secure regulatory approval for their China-incorporated units.

Most foreign banks choose to incorporate in China because they want to tap the country's retail banking sector through fast branch expansion across the country.

Local incorporation makes it much easier for foreign banks to apply to open new branches and offer a full range of local currency-denominated retail banking services to Chinese customers.

However, JPMorgan said it would still focus on its wholesale banking business such as trade finance, cash management and financial derivatives, but may tap the retail market when it finds the right opportunity.

...more...

They can offer refinancing for folks that were just plain greedy and/or stupid, but not folks that, in spite of diligence, good performance, Veteran status, had their jobs routinely and serially shipped out from under them, or those who sacrificed heavily to pay the exorbitant costs of necessary care for themselves or their family members. It's an absolute truth that no good deed goes unpunished and there be no honor among thieves!

Tax the mortgage brokers and others that made the money off all this bad paper. They always turn to the good old pigeon of a tax payer to tidy up the aftermath of the corporate frauds.

next are the Wallstreet banksters, An American tradition...

I'm just finishing up "When the Pentagon was for Sale", which tells about Reagan's unleashing of criminality into the military industrial complex. Some of the cast of characters are even the same. But I was shocked by how the formula they're using today was being used then, and nothing's been done to stop it. In one case, the lobbyist and government insider conspired to create a company that then received proftis from "defense" spending. There were offshore accounts. As a bonus, these companies would then have an inside track for future defense contracts as well. All very profitable, but here's the kicker. After bloating these companies with government contracts, they'd take them public and offload these shell companies onto pension and mutual funds. Does any of this sound familar?

and by all means, use it! I am sure I must have picked it up myself around here on the SMW!

-mojavekid

I remembered where I read that - Jim Willie. It was in a paid report, but he posts a free editorial almost every week, very entertaining, and right up your alley!

most recent:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie071207.html


-mojavekid

the debate about health care; should the U.S. recycle u.s. tax payer money into health care vs. recycling u.s. tax payer money into bombs for iraq genocide gets even more absurd when you consider that banks don't blush about taking u.s. tax payer money to bail out their losing positions (after they've speculated and lost). The sheer size of State subsidies to the u.s. banking industry makes the u.s. banks potentially the biggest recipient of state welfare in history... For white people in Connecticut, socialism is OK, if you're black in New Orleans it's not OK. Why do blue collar workers fight for a 2% rise in wages to 'match inflation' when banks get an automatic 14% rise in gifted money each jan. 1st in the form of monetary inflation... workers in america need to fight for wages that keep up with money supply; the 'real' rate of inflation..

European stocks traded slightly lower on Monday despite a lift from the banking sector after Barclays (NYSE:BCS - news) increased its offer for ABN Amro.

Barclays increased its offer for the Dutch bank to EU67.5bn and introduced a cash element by agreeing to sell shares worth EU13.4bn to China Development Bank and Temasek Holdings, an investment group owned by the government of Singapore.

The revised offer comes in response to a EU71.1bn bid last week by a consortium led by the Royal Bank of Scotland.

ABN Amro's shares added 0.8 per cent to EU36.92 while Barclays climbed 3 per cent to 735p. RBS put on 0.2 per cent to 611p.

The FTSEurofirst 300 shed 0.1 per cent to 1597.53 in morning trading. The CAC 40 index was down 0.3 per cent at 5942.49 and the DAX was trading 0.2 per cent lower at 7860.46.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20070723/bs_ft/fto072320070717555877

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As Wal-Mart continues to struggle with soft sales amid a housing slowdown and gas price pressures, the retailer announced Monday that it will cut prices further on 16,000 items this week to spur sales for the back-to-school shopping season.

Wal-Mart (Charts, Fortune 500), the world's largest retailer, said in a statement that it hopes to save families with children 10 to 50 percent on school-related merchandise through its new discounts.

Wal-Mart said its plans are based on this year's report from the National Retail Federation, which says families on average will spend $563.49 on school-related purchases for their kids.

-cut-

Sales of Wal-Mart stores open at least a year, a key measure of retail performance known as same-store sales, continue to trail same-store sales growth at its main competitor Target (Charts, Fortune 500), the No. 2 discounter.

Although Target is in the same discount category as Wal-Mart, its sales haven't been hit as hard as Wal-Mart's in recent months because Target appeals to slightly higher-income shoppers whose disposable incomes are less affected by gas price swings.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/23/news/companies/walmart_pricecuts/index.htm?postversion=2007072308

During wee hours it dropped to $79.97...
Wowee Zowee:wow:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a5vJbKOfvs0M&refer=asia

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, led by Japanese exporters, after the dollar declined to a six-week-low against the yen amid concern the U.S. economy is slowing.

Honda Motor Co., which last year made the bulk of its sales in North America, slid the most in six weeks. Sony Corp., the world's biggest game-console maker, had its biggest slump in almost a month.

``The yen's weakening trend has reached its end,'' said Hiroshi Chano, who helps manage $7.3 billion at Yasuda Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``If the currency takes another big step, exporters are going to suffer.''

Stocks in the region also slid on concern a U.S. housing slump will dent demand in the biggest market for Asian products. Samsung Electronics Co. dropped for the fourth day in five.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent to 160.12 as of 5:56 p.m. in Tokyo, after ending last week at a record. China's CSI 300 Index rounded out its biggest two-day gain after the central bank raised interest rates for the third time this year, reducing the risk of excessive investment in factories and housing.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1.1 percent, with Tokyo Electric Power Co. declining after a newspaper reported the company may earn half as much as it forecast this business year. Benchmarks also fell in Australia, Singapore and New Zealand, while those in the Philippines and Malaysia were little changed. Elsewhere in the region markets rose.

/...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/united_states/article2120735.ece

July 23, 2007
US financial watchdog says economy at risk from ‘non-ally’ bondholders
Suzy Jagger and Gary Duncan
America’s leading public finance watchdog has sounded a warning that the US economy is vulnerable to hostile financial actions by nations that are not its “allies”.
David Walker, the US comptroller general, indicated that the huge holdings of American government debt by countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Libya could leave a powerful financial weapon in the hands of countries that may be hostile to US corporate and diplomatic interests.
Mr Walker told The Times that foreign investors have more control over the US economy than Americans, leaving the country in a state that was “financially imprudent”.
He said: “More and more of our debt is held by foreign countries – some of which are our allies and some are not.”
Mr Walker, who heads the Government agency that is responsible for auditing the national accounts and is also the arm of Congress that scrutinis-es spending by the Administration, said that the US has been forced to rely on foreign investors more because Americans are saving so little.
According to US Treasury Department statistics, Japan is the biggest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, with almost $623 billion (£310 billion) of US government debt as of December last year. Mainland China is the second biggest investor, with about $397 billion, and oil exporters, which include Iran and Saudi Arabia, had $110 billion.
The UK, while the biggest foreign investor in US equities, is the fourth-biggest holder of US Treasuries.
While Mr Walker referred to Britain as “the best ally the US could hope for”, he told The Times that “anybody who looks at that list will see that some of the countries there are not traditional US allies. You will see that China, Korea and a number of Opec nations are there. Not all the countries on the list share the same economic, national and foreign polices as the US.”
The worry is that should any of these foreign nations choose to reduce their holdings significantly, it would trigger sharp falls in US government bond prices, driving up their yield, which would raise borrowing costs sharply for American consumers and companies. While most economists take the view that countries such as China are unlikely to reduce their US bond holdings because they would also suffer a fall in the value of their own investments, China could still be perceived as holding a powerful financial weapon.
Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, said: “The US has a symbiotic relationship with China. The US cannot afford for China to sell its US treasuries but, equally, China cannot afford to see the value slide. They are strategic enemies and are in a financially weird relationship. China’s holdings represent about a third of Chinese GDP.”
China has been buying US Treasury bonds faster than any other big country – it has increased its holdings sixfold in six years. Beijing has accumulated the bonds as a consquence of its extensive programme of intervention in the currency markets. To hold down the value of the yuan, China buys dollar assets and sells the yuan.
This month Mr Walker described the US as suffering from a “fiscal cancer'” because of the massive long-term healthcare liabilities that the nation faces. The financial burden caused by healthcare entitlements has increased from about $20 trillion to $50 trillion over the past six years, representing a $440,000 bill for every American household, he explained. He also added that in 2005 and 2006, Americans spent more money than they took home, the first such pattern since 1933.

is the big boogey man? Maybe it has something to do with billions and billions every day spent on a ridiculous war?

Gimme a f*&%$#* break!!!

:kick:

:donut: and lurkers. Toots, to quote the famous words of Homer Simpson"Doh". The ignorance, on such a massive scale, that IS the leaders of our nation and captains of our industry never ceases to amaze me.How many times has this been brought up on this thread by we-the great unwashed masses? My calculator can't count that many times:P

Well, I really enjoyed my classes. Learned alot-chart reading was the best part. There was alot on options that I am still trying to absorb. It seems I am a fundamental type of stock person(probably why I like Warren Buffet so much. This was a good peek in the mind of technical traders.

I took my daughter with me (I had to bribe her with the Harry Potter book-but she took great notes). I felt like Rodney Dangerfield in Back to School. It was nice to have your own personal secretary taking your class notes. But best of all, she absorbed quite a bit too. When we listened to Market Report on NPR on the way home-she was excited (well as excited as teens get) because she understood quite a bit about what they were talking about.
I am sure I will get a nice synopsis on the Potter book that I don't have time to read now. It's a win-win in my book.

I am getting the hang of my Apple-am I really love it! It really is fun. I still am having a snafu with the Parallel program that runs a Windows program, but I am confident that this too shall pass.

Well, happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

When old age shall this generation waste,
Thou shalt remain, in midst of other woe
Than ours, a friend to man, to whom thou say'st,
'Beauty is truth, truth beauty,—that is all
Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.'

ed. cf, perhaps, http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Ghost%20Dog

Father Ghost Dog, my childhood was fairly warped, I had a wee bit of trouble learning to read, but once I figured out the code-I took to it like a drowning man air. Couldn't get enough, esp when I was out of school and had more autonomy over my education and reading selection. I went through phases. One of the 1st phases (after discovering I wouldn't grow up to be a Viking) I went through was a fascination with ancient Greece. I remember reading of Paris' dilemma (wealth,beauty, and wisdom). I chose wisdom. I never regretted that choice.

DANG, this baby is sensitive. Sorry guys

Apple double posts.....

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B36448920%2Dcf40%2D4d27%2Db99e%2D15e5c10c074b%7D

European stocks traded slightly lower on Monday despite a lift from the banking sector after Barclays increased its offer for ABN Amro. Barclays increased its offer for the Dutch bank to €67.5bn and introduced a cash element by agreeing to sell shares worth €13.4bn to China Development Bank and Temasek Holdings, an investment group owned by the government of Singapore. The revised offer comes in response to a €71.1bn bid last week by a consortium led by the Royal Bank of Scotland. ABN Amro’s shares added 0.8 per cent to €36.92 while Barclays climbed 3 per cent to 735p. RBS put on 0.2 per cent to 611p. The FTSEurofirst 300 shed 0.1 per cent to 1597.53 in morning trading. The CAC 40 index was down 0.3 per cent at 5942.49 and the DAX was trading 0.2 per cent lower at 7860.46.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070723/afp/070723113018eco.html

LONDON (AFP) - Europe's main stock markets mainly extended losses on Monday following heavy falls last week, as dealers tracked news across the insurance and banking sectors.

Turkish shares hit a record high point after Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government had won re-election on Sunday.

The Istanbul Stock Exchange's IMKB-100 index hit an all-time high of 55,058.80 points shortly after trading began, boosted by the prospect of continued economic stability in Turkey.

In London, British life insurers Friends Provident and Resolution confirmed they are in advanced discussions regarding a possible all-share merger worth 8.31 billion pounds (17 billion dollars). As a result, the share price of Friends surged by more than 7.0 percent in London.

Meanwhile Barclays, the third-biggest British bank, called in state-backed Asian financial powerhouses to strengthen its offer for ABN Amro amid a European bidding battle for the Dutch bank worth nearly 100 billion dollars.

Nearing the half-way stage, London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares rose by 0.26 percent to 6,602.10 points.

In Frankfurt the DAX 30 fell 0.17 percent to 7,861.59 points and the Paris CAC 40 lost 0.16 percent to 5,947.89.

The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of top eurozone shares edged down 0.09 percent to 4,441.08.

The euro stood at 1.3813 dollars after striking a fresh record high of 1.3845 in Asian trading.

A rising euro is seen as bad news for European exporters, whose products become less competitive in international markets.

/...

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-07-23T164907Z_01_L23889363_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML

LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - European share indexes closed up on Monday, boosted by gains in U.S. stocks and a 3 percent jump in Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile , Research), which raised its bid for ABN AMRO (AAH.AS: Quote, Profile , Research) with the help of investments from China and Singapore.

Barclays also unveiled strong first-half results. ABN AMRO, which is also being courted by a consortium of banks led by Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile , Research), rose 0.7 percent.

"Royal Bank of Scotland is still the favourite, but the odds are a little bit different to what they were on Friday," said Colin Morton at Rensburg Fund Management, a holder of both Barclays and RBS stock. Shares in RBS rose 0.9 percent.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> finished 0.6 percent stronger at 1,609.7, the day's high, paring Friday's 1.1 percent loss when disappointing U.S. results and troubles in the U.S. subprime market hit equities.The European index is up 8.5 percent so far this year.

By the close of European trading hours the Dow <.DJI> traded 0.8 percent higher and the Nasdaq <.IXIC> added 0.6 pct on takeover deals and strong earnings.

In a busy day for takeovers, shares in TomTom (TOM2.AS: Quote, Profile , Research), the world's biggest maker of car navigation devices, rallied 11 percent after it announced plans to buy its main map supplier, Tele Atlas (TA.AS: Quote, Profile , Research), whose shares jumped 31 percent.

"You have to begin to say that some deals are looking a bit over the top but I suppose (are) indicative of the strength of balance sheets and the cost of financing being so low," said Andrea Williams, head of European equities at Royal London Asset Management. Continued...

/...

x

SP mini 1534.5 as of 10am Tues. Should still make 1531-2 by Wed. then up to 1573

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=adDz78xq_kJE&refer=bond

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held near the lowest in seven weeks as investors sought the relative safety of government debt on concern that losses on subprime loans in the U.S. will hurt the broader economy.

Benchmark yields stayed below 5 percent for a second day before a report this week that's expected to show home sales declined to the lowest in four years in June. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said inflation will recede and housing market weakness may slow the economy.

``We've been driven by fear and uncertainty because the market is unsure where the next bit of bad news from the subprime market is coming from,'' said Stuart Thomson, a fund manager at Resolution Investment Management Ltd., which oversees the equivalent of $46 billion in debt, in Glasgow, Scotland. ``We'll continue to be supported by this uncertainty.''

The yield on the 4 1/2 percent note maturing in May 2017 was at 4.95 percent at 7:30 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. It may slide to as low as 4.9 percent this week, said Thomson. The price of the 10-year note was unchanged at 96 17/32.

more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/21/business/21debt.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin


After two years of rapid-fire deal making, private equity firms are finding it harder to get the job done.


Some 15 to 20 debt offerings — analysts’ estimates vary — have been modified or postponed as anxious investors have demanded better terms for high-yield loans and bonds, the lifeblood of the leveraged buyout. Private equity firms have had to raise interest rates and sweeten the repayment — or risk having to withdraw the offerings entirely.

“It’s the issuers who are over a barrel right now,” said Justin B. Monteith, an analyst with the research firm KDP Investment Advisors. “The market could go lower as people see how far they can push the issuers.”

Anxiety over securities backed by risky mortgage loans and rising interest rates has roiled the credit markets for several months. Now the contagion from those troubles seems to be spreading into other parts of the marketplace. After edging past the 14,000 mark on Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed yesterday at 13,851.08, down 149.33 points, in part because of continued concern about subprime mortgages.

The yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell below 5 percent yesterday, closing at 4.95 percent, in another sign that investors are looking for safe havens.

This week, the sale of loans meant to finance the buyouts of the Chrysler Group and the European retailers Alliance Boots and Maxeda have been sweetened or postponed. Bond sales have not fared much better: about $3.65 billion in offerings have been postponed since June 26, according to data from KDP.

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aXSszA6YnycQ

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Contrasts between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are striking, and not just because the ECB has raised interest rates five times in the past year while the Fed has been on hold.

Last week, for instance, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke was questioned at two hearings by dozens of members of Congress who, should they choose, have the power to give him and his colleagues marching orders on monetary policy. The Fed, after all, is part of the congressional branch of the U.S. government.

Meanwhile in Europe, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet rebuked newly elected French President Nicolas Sarkozy for seeking a greater voice for European governments in setting monetary policy.

Sarkozy is unhappy because the ECB interest rate increases have helped push the value of the euro to a record, potentially curbing demand for exports from France and the dozen other countries that share the currency.

In particular, Sarkozy has criticized the ECB'S single- minded focus on price stability. The Fed, on the other hand, has a dual legal mandate to achieve both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment.

Whatever the French complaint, Trichet was on solid legal ground in telling Sarkozy to go fly a kite.

The ECB, as its Web site says, has ``constitutional'' status. That is, it was created by the treaty establishing the European Community, which also established price stability as the bank's only goal.

more...

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-06-20 Wednesday, June 20 0.93932 USD
2007-06-21 Thursday, June 21 0.932227 USD
2007-06-22 Friday, June 22 0.93668 USD
2007-06-25 Monday, June 25 0.933532 USD
2007-06-26 Tuesday, June 26 0.935279 USD
2007-06-27 Wednesday, June 27 0.933184 USD
2007-06-28 Thursday, June 28 0.941088 USD
2007-06-29 Friday, June 29 0.94038 USD
2007-07-02 Monday, July 2 0.947598 USD
2007-07-03 Tuesday, July 3 0.94402 USD
2007-07-04 Wednesday, July 4 0.94402 USD
2007-07-05 Thursday, July 5 0.946342 USD
2007-07-06 Friday, July 6 0.954381 USD
2007-07-09 Monday, July 9 0.95429 USD
2007-07-10 Tuesday, July 10 0.95057 USD
2007-07-11 Wednesday, July 11 0.947239 USD
2007-07-12 Thursday, July 12 0.955384 USD
2007-07-13 Friday, July 13 0.954563 USD
2007-07-16 Monday, July 16 0.958773 USD
2007-07-17 Tuesday, July 17 0.958313 USD
2007-07-18 Wednesday, July 18 0.958313 USD
2007-07-19 Thursday, July 19 0.959233 USD
2007-07-20 Friday, July 20 0.957854 USD


Current values

Last trade 0.9567 Change +0.0012 (+0.13%)
Previous Close 0.9557 Open 0.9578
Low 0.9565 High 0.9600


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9436 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If September extends this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at .9683 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

Analysis

I'm going on vacation to England from last week of July to 2nd week of August so I'm going to start getting interested, for perfectly selfish reasons, to the Sterling and Euro.

Judging from the charts on my main site, I'm in trouble. I phoned my mother and begged for another CAN$1000 to tide me over 'til payday (and got yelled at). If you see me on the streets waving a tin cup (actually, I heard the price of tin went up along with everything else), could you toss a coupla quid in?

and tossed in another thou.

Wonder what she knows that I don't? :scared:

Dow 13,943.42 up 92.34 (0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,690.58 up 2.98 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,541.57 up 7.47 (0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.964% down 0.008

NYSE Volume 3,117,282,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,123,235,000

With the major indices tumbling 1.2% on average Friday and posting their first weekly decline in a month, it wasn't overly surprising to see the market's underlying bullish sentiment view such a sizable sell-off as overdone and warrant a reflexive bounce.

However, stocks closed well off their session highs as key leadership weakened into the finish as investors grew less convinced about an uninspiring earnings picture that has shown nothing to change our neutral market view.

Further proof that deal making remains prevalent was the primary catalyst renewing enthusiasm for equities. Typical Monday-morning M&A activity was led by a proposed $53 bln merger of equals between Transocean (RIG 115.99 +6.02) and GlobalSantaFe (GSF 78.33 +3.59). The potential blockbuster deal between RIG-GSF strengthened takeover premiums throughout Energy (+0.6%) enough to help offset a 1.2% drop in oil prices and earmark Oil & Gas Drillers as the day's best performer (+4.1%).

Another deal included United Rentals (URI 32.98 0.61), which agreed to be taken private for $6.6 bln (including debt) and reports that Nokia Siemens Networks is eyeing a $7.0 bln takeover of Tellabs (TLAB 12.20 +0.35). The latter news, coupled with an intraday 2.1% rally in Texas Instruments (TXN 38.16 +0.15) ahead of its earnings report after the bell, initially gave the influential Tech sector some noticeable support. Some uncertainty about the sector's increasingly optimistic growth prospects, though, was further reflected in TXN selling off into the close and pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index to its lows of the day.

Of the nine sectors trading higher, Telecom paced the way as investors priced in expectations of a strong Q2 report from AT&T (T 40.03 +0.97) tomorrow morning. AT&T's 2.5% surge, though, was dwarfed by an 8% in fellow Dow component Merck (MRK 52.43 +3.41), which topped analysts' expectations and boosted its full-year profit outlook At its highs of the day (+8.8%), Merck accounted for 35 of the Dow's 122-point intraday performance.

Nonetheless, the absence of leadership in the S&P 500's most heavily-weighted sector prevented solid sector gains from the likes of Health Care (+1.0%), Staples (+0.9%), and Industrials (+0.8%) from playing a more influential role in today's recovery. Market breadth eventually turning negative amid sellers last-ditch efforts also offered little conviction on the part of buyers believing Friday's drubbing was overextended. DJ30 +92.34 NASDAQ +2.98 SP500 +7.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1623/1382/2.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1677/1587/1.39 bln