STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 19

Source: du

Wednesday September 19, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 489 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2448 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2160 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2121
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 18, 2007

Dow... 13,739.39 +335.97 (+2.51%)
Nasdaq... 2,651.66 +70.00 (+2.71%)
S&P 500... 1,519.78 +43.13 (+2.92%)
Gold future... 723.70 -0.10 (-0.01%)
30-Year Bond 4.76% +0.05 (+0.98%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.48% +0.01 (+0.22%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

Ben Bernanke and the Missing Bond Vigilantes?
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

Over the last few years working in the hedge fund business, I can remember the eerie calm that fell over our trading desk ahead of each Fed meeting. For about 15 minutes ahead of the “Big Announcement” the phones would slow, people would begin to crowd around, and the period of quiet anxiousness would begin. Eyes on the second hand, I would usually check all my trading screens, then make sure everything on my trading desk was in order, I’d stack my papers – reshuffle a few here, a few more over there, pace around the desk where my carpeting was wearing thin, and I’d make sure I knew where everything and anything I could possibly need could be found in a moment's notice.

For a trader, it was a feeling that must be somewhat akin to what a thoroughbred horse must feel when stepping into the starting gate -- that sense of anxiety, the palpable tension -- and then would come the TV reporter's voice, “the voice” with the “Big News”!!! Only most often, it wasn’t “big news;” most often, it was no news of consequence at all. Most often, the increased transparency at the Fed had telegraphed what would be the outcome long in advance. Everyone would then laugh and that would be it -- back to work we’d go. Of course, the markets still managed to go wildly insane for about an hour or two after most meetings, and sometimes on the REALLY predictable ones, nothing much would happen.

Well, boy, was today ever different. For starters, coming into the day, the wave of anticipation in front of this particular Fed meeting was unlike anything we have seen in many years, literally headline after headline over the last few days on virtually every financial web site attributing this or that market reaction to the perceived upcoming action by the Fed. Among Fed meetings, cast against the backdrop of the unfolding Credit Crisis, this meeting was the Super Bowl of Fed Powwow's. Coming into the day, 86% of polled investors believed the Fed would cut rates by 1/4% on fed funds with nearly 38% pointing to additional 1/2% cut on the discount rate. What did we get? We got the ultimate surprise -- a 1/2 point rate cut, and a 1/2 cut in the discount rate! A double whammy of Fed rate cuts.

-cut-

Welcome to Weimar Revisited! Forget about any ‘Moral Hazard,’ and forget about the purchasing power of those hard earned Dollars. Clearly, that is the message that the Fed is sending to the International community with today’s action. A shocking, potentially reckless move, where will the Bid be found on the greenback, and at what point will foreigners decide that a 4.48% yield on a 10 year Bond doesn’t cover the bet? (Heck, it ticked up a whole basis point today.) Only time will tell, but for now, the Fed’s stark message seems to be re-inflate at all costs. In pursuing this arguably high-risk path, the Fed is opening the door to a potential Pandora’s Box. Conspiracy theorists may argue that Central Banks are working together, and that despite a lower value for the Greenback, foreign money will continue to be recycled into US Dollars. Yet, what if that is wrong? What if foreign money decides to flee the Dollar market? In that reality, this high stakes gambit by the Fed could blow up in its face, as exiting foreign capital hammers the Dollar and begins to send long term rates sharply higher. At that point, we face a melt down, as rising long term rates would be another nail in the coffin for the US Residential Market, and could continue to generate chaos in credit markets. A marked departure from the Greenspan gradualism, the Fed appears to be leaving its equilibrium at the political alter of an election year, and at the special interest alter of Wall Street investment banks. How ironic that if presumed foreign cooperation is renounced, the Fed could end up standing alone in a long suffering melt down. Looking back at past interest rate cutting cycles, we see that the trend in the US Dollar has not been anything but ugly. Now, with the US Dollar on the verge of all time record lows against most major currencies, is it possible that today’s aggressive rate cut will be seen as anything but an Admiral Farragut style “Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead” decree of a global “we don’t care” weak dollar policy?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

With these spreads already slipping into negative territory, the action today by the Fed sends a very negative message to global investors, that the US will not support its money. That is potentially the most dangerous concept any central bank can breed, and in that light, it seems that the level of outrage directed at the Fed should be that of a "scathing rebuke." We have moved from one serial bubble blower in “I didn’t get it! ” Alan, (see 60 Minutes interview last weekend) to now a man, who for the second time in a decade, seems to be steering the country toward yet another wrong choice.

What's your analysis of all of this?

Many of us here knew that a cut in the federal lending rate would undermine the dollar. What is the incentive for overseas central banks to continue to carry petro-dollar reserves? Answer: Nil and None. It will take some herculean ass-kissing to rescue the dollar from its designated fate, being dropped as the world's oil reserve currency. Look at the price of oil.

I an no dollar guru. But the data against issued as warning against the folly of the Federal Reserves decision overwhelms any argument in its defense.

8:30 AM CPI Aug
Briefing Forecast -0.2%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 0.1%

8:30 AM Core CPI Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Housing Starts Aug
Briefing Forecast 1365K
Market Expects 1345K
Prior 1381K

8:30 AM Building Permits Aug
Briefing Forecast 1355K
Market Expects 1350K
Prior 1373K

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/14
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -7011K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

23. U.S. CPI shows higher prices for food, medical care
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

24. U.S. CPI held back by falling energy, apparel, hotel prices
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

25. U.S. Aug. CPI food prices rise 0.4%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

26. U.S. Aug. CPI energy prices fall 3.2%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

27. U.S. CPI up 2% in past year, core CPI up 2.1%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

28. U.S. Aug. core CPI rises 0.2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

29. U.S. August single-family housing permits fall 8.1%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

30. U.S. August single-family housing starts fall 7.1%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

31. U.S. Aug. CPI falls 0.1% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

32. U.S. August building permits fall 24.5% year over year
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

33. U.S. August building permits fall 5.9% to 1.307 mln
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

34. U.S. August housing starts fall 19.1% year over year
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

35. U.S. August housing starts fall 2.6% to 1.331 mln
8:30 AM ET, Sep 19, 2007 - 1 hour ago

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Wednesday above the previous session's record close, lifted by expectations the interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will accelerate growth and increase demand for already tight crude and gasoline supplies.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery added 66 cents to $82.17 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

The Fed cut its benchmark federal funds rate overnight by a half percentage point to 4.75 percent in an effort to prevent the recent credit crunch from hurting the overall economy, a move that led to a surge in crude oil prices in the moments immediately after the announcement.

-cut-

Nymex crude settled Tuesday at a fresh record close of $81.51 a barrel, up 94 cents. It later hit an all-time high of $82.38 a barrel in after-hours trading. Analysts note, though, that oil prices are still well below inflation-adjusted highs of $96 to $101 a barrel achieved in the early 1980s.

Investors had already priced into the market a quarter-point cut in the benchmark federal funds rate, analysts said. The unexpected half-point cut spurred even more buying. Moreover, many analysts see a weaker dollar as a natural side effect of lower rates, and that could promote buying of oil contracts by foreign investors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

if this quote is true:

Analysts note, though, that oil prices are still well below inflation-adjusted highs of $96 to $101 a barrel achieved in the early 1980s.

Something doesn't seem right about that quote, but I'm not at all an economist - just a compassionate human being trying to survive and be helpful to others.

I was working for an oil instrumentation company and oil was NEVER at 96 USD/bbl.

Try this http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/25opec/sld005.htm



Somehow that DOESN'T look like $96-$101 unless they are adjusting for inflation, etc... But who does that?

Feloneous

Then again, the "inflation-adjusted highs" keep going up for some reason.

...oil prices are still well below inflation-adjusted highs of $96 to $101 a barrel achieved in the early 1980s.

$50 oil....

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/27/markets/oil_effects/

snip>
Before clucking too much about the dangers of high oil prices, it's worth noting that, in inflation-adjusted dollars, crude oil is still not nearly as dear as it was in 1979. What's more, the U.S. economy is far less energy-dependent than it was then.



Hmmmm, highest inflation-adjusted price in that chart is 79.99

$60 oil....

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2005-06-23-oil-usat_x.htm

snip>
Agbeli Ameko, managing partner at consultant First Enercast Financial, says: "$60 is a very important milestone psychologically." Once it's passed, "the question then is where do we go from here? Our forecast is for prices to break $62" soon. That means a U.S. average "$2.50, $2.60 regular-gas prices at the pump is definitely what we'll be seeing in the next few weeks."

While the August contract was lower than $60, futures contracts for purchases of light, sweet crude oil every month through next June closed higher than $60 Thursday, showing that traders see continued high prices.

Though oil remains well below the inflation-adjusted record of $83.41 — $39 a barrel in early 1981 — the recent spike in oil has sapped what had been an encouraging recovery in the stock market.



Or there's these chart that came out when we hit $60

http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2005/rose/index.htm

$70 oil.....

Here's an interesting story from last May....

http://www.forbes.com/businessinthebeltway/2006/05/01/oil-energy-production-cx_jh_0501energy.html

Oil Companies Won't Fish

snip>

With the price of crude well above $70 a barrel, the oil companies have all the incentive they need to scour the world for new reserves and ramp up more costly production of unconventional oil. The notion that Big Oil is constraining supply in order to reap outsized profits is the stuff of conspiracy theory: Private oil companies have no more control over the world price of oil than motorists.

So it is puzzling to many industry analysts that instead of using these profits to develop new sources of supply, they prefer to lavish them on their shareholders in the form of higher dividends and buy back stock. The industry protests that it has poured $106 billion into new production already this year. But though that may sound like a lot, it isn't even enough to replace the depletion of current oil fields as well as cover the wear and tear on equipment and machinery.

"The oil companies have done a tremendous amount of investment," says James Hamilton, an economist and energy expert at the University of California at San Diego. "But they have to just to remain in the same place."

Several factors are making it difficult for the companies to expand production, including shortages of engineers and equipment created from years of low-priced oil. In addition, investment opportunities are scarce. Up to 75% of the world's reserves are off-limits to private oil companies, calculates Philip Verleger, an industry expert at the Institute for International Economics in Washington. And the projects that are available aren't always that lucrative since national governments demand most of the profits for themselves.

But another, more surprising, factor is holding back the oil companies: They simply aren't that bullish on the oil market 10 or so years down the road, when a project started today will start to produce oil.

"My guess is virtually 90% of the oil industry is assuming that $70 oil is not going to last more than a few years," according to Adam Sieminski, the chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank (nyse: DB - news - people ). He guesses that most oil companies are projecting crude will fetch $40 a barrel plus inflation over the long-term.

more...

WASHINGTON - Like the tides, the wave of good feelings that swept over Wall Street and Main Street with the Federal Reserve's big rate cut could ebb just as quickly.

Homeowners opening up statements for their adjustable-rate mortgages come October will experience a jolt when the rates jump, but not as severe a jolt as it could have been.

And, Wall Street's mood swings — reflecting bouts of panic and then some relief — are expected to linger.

That's because the Fed's action, while perhaps providing some help, won't cure problems in the ailing housing market, which are still expected to drag well into next year.

It will take time for builders to work off a glut of unsold homes. That means the housing slump will continue to hold back the economy and probably lead to more job cuts in construction, manufacturing and other industries.

The Fed's action also won't stop home foreclosures and late mortgage payments from rising in the months ahead.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070919/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates

More short-termer syndrome

Never look past the next quarter...

NEW YORK - A big rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the stock market's huge rally in response to that move has many on Wall Street wondering: Now what?

The Fed's decision Tuesday to slash its benchmark federal funds rate by a larger-than-expected half percentage point sent stocks soaring and lifted the Dow Jones industrials nearly 336 points. It also raised questions about the Fed's next step and how markets might fare in the coming months.

-cut-

Still, some on Wall Street will likely question whether the Fed's rate cut signals a deeper unease at the bank about the effect of tightness in the credit markets and widespread weakness in the housing sector. And investors will be left trying to determine whether a portion of Tuesday's rally owed to short covering. Investors who sell shares short bet the stock price will fall, and when stocks move higher, so-called short sellers are forced to move in and buy to cover their losses. That influx of buyers can exacerbate market climbs.

-cut-

With those concerns in mind, the Fed cut the benchmark fed funds rate to 4.75 percent — the first reduction in four years. The central bank had kept rates unchanged for more than a year. The Fed also again cut the less-visible discount rate. Fed policymakers lowered the discount rate by half a point in mid-August in their bid to keep cash flowing into the U.S. banking system and dispel perceptions that turning to the central bank for a loan in such times was a sign of a bank's precarious position.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070919/ap_on_bi_ge/market_interest_rates

TOKYO - Asian and European stock markets rallied Wednesday in the wake of Wall Street's overnight surge spurred by the U.S. Federal Reserve's larger-than-expected interest rate cut.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index soared 579.74 points, or 3.7 percent, to close at 16,381.54 points, marking its biggest point gain in more than five years. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 977.79 points, or 3.98 percent, to 25,554.64.

Investors cheered the Fed's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point to 4.75 percent, a move aimed at keeping problems in the mortgage market from causing a recession in the U.S. economy — a key export market for many Asian and European companies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070919/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Reaching out to hard-hit borrowers in the subprime-mortgage market, the House on Tuesday passed a bill that lowers down payments for borrowers, raises loan limits and boosts funds for housing counseling.

Passed by a vote of 348 to 72, the bill reforms the Federal Housing Administration and is the latest lifeline thrown to borrowers from Washington as the fallout in the mortgage market continues.

About two million loans are expected to reset to higher rates in the next two years, with defaults expected to follow. Congress and the White House have floated various proposals to stem the damage.

The bill directs up to $300 million a year into an affordable housing fund. A motion offered by Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, to kill the fund was rejected.

"We do not have a general program for helping build affordable family housing, and that's what this bill would do," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

Lawmakers also passed an amendment to the bill offered by Frank that would raise the agency's loan limit from its current $417,000 to as much as $729,750.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-passes-bill-aimed-helping/story.aspx?guid=F2CD6FF8-6937-4ABB-BE4D-91DFE996EDBC&dist=SecMostMailed

The problem is, no one will be earning any income.

or so I hope.

I've missed the last 2 drops in interest rates but "third time's a charm"?

I may actually get lucky this coming year. I need to refinance a couple of properties and sell one.
If interest rates are lower, that will help me out a LOT.

The Disgusting Business of Milking the Working (Poor)

Instead, the salespeople figure out the maximum they can squeeze from the working-class buyer, then charge it - financing courtesy of Bank of America. The practice is called “opportunity pricing.”

As BusinessWeek notes, the thing being sold doesn’t matter. It’s just the “bait” to saddle someone with punishing loan terms. Companies can now assess the financial wherewithal of potential victims with special software called Automated Risk Evaluator.

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/06/09/1766/


TO FILL UP THE GLUT?????

They run your numbers through their computer, and tell you that you can afford X dollars' worth of house. That doesn't absolve you from figuring out for yourself how much house you can afford; if people did that, there wouldn't have been a housing bubble to worry about. Now, all this is easy for Middle-Age Man* to say because he's been around, and knows how all this works, but if you're still wet behind the ears, it's a lot easier to be taken in by these sort of shady practices because you don't have anybody in your corner who knows better informing you. Most people know dick about personal finance - real estate agents know it, banks know it, automobile salesmen know it, and the Republicans know it, even though they will repeatedly tell you otherwise.

*I saw you. You're looking at my gut! Well, I'm working on it.

And this was proposed as an aid to faimilies (vs lenders) with a straight face? Oh puh-leez!!!! :eyes:

The Marketeers would fire me.

Dow up 65 in first 2 minutes

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.298 Change +0.127 (+0.16%)

US Fed: Bernanke To The Rescue With A 50bp Cut

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Fed__Bernanke_To_The_1190145743817.html

On Tuesday morning, traders had been ramping up speculation of a 25bp cut to the federal funds rate. However, the FOMC caught investors off guard when they went through with not only a 50bp cut to the federal funds rate, but also a 50bp cut to the discount rate. The policy moves signaled two things: they are worried about a possible recession and they are concerned about the credit crunch. Equity markets have taken the news kindly, while the US dollar has plummeted across the board. However, with the FOMC still saying that “some inflation risks” remain, we may not see a repeat of this in October.

FOMC Statement

“Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time.” – September 18, 2007

“Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.” – September 18, 2007

“Developments in financial markets since the Committee s last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.” – September 18, 2007

Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary

“There is great vigilance now on the part of regulators, in terms of staying close to markets, as we work our way through this situation. We want to get the balance right...we don't want to rush to judgment and overreact.” – September 17, 2007

“There will be some penalty to our growth but I feel confident that our economy is going to continue to grow, that inflation is contained.” – September 14, 2007

...more...

Bernanke Put Drives US Dollar to Record Lows

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Bernanke_Put_Drives_US_Dollar_1190150712064.html

The Greenspan put has now become the Bernanke put. This term was coined back in 1998 when Greenspan bailed out the financial markets by lowering interest rates after the collapse of Long Term Capital. Today, Bernanke gave the markets the biggest confidence boost that traders could have hoped for by cutting both the Fed funds rate and the discount rate 50bp. By not committing to any future policy moves, the statement also left the door open for further interest rate cuts leading Fed Fund futures to now price in another 50bp of easing before the end of the year. The decision was unanimous which makes it even more significant since every one of the FOMC members seemed to believe that the risks to growth far outweigh the risks to inflation. With this move, no one can say that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve. The rate decision has sent the US dollar tumbling to a new record low against the Euro and a fresh 30 year low against the Canadian dollar. The only currency that the US dollar strengthened against is the Japanese Yen which benefited from the 335 point rally in the Dow. A new trend has been established after Fed rate decision and we expect to see significant follow through not only in the Asian markets, but also in the US and European markets over the next few days since this will not be the one and only interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. As for what to watch next: keep an eye on consumer spending and non-farm payrolls. Even though today’s step goes a long way in preventing a recession, it still does not rule out one. If we have two back to back months of negative retail sales or non-farm payrolls, traders will begin to question whether the Federal Reserve has done enough. Meanwhile producer prices saw the biggest decline since October 2006 while the NAHB index dropped to a record low. These disappointments validate the need for easier monetary policy. Tomorrow, we have consumer prices and housing starts. With both crude and gasoline prices both dropping significantly in August, the numbers should be tepid, especially since the new highs in oil were not made until September.

...more...

The dollar took a nosedive yesterday
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

11/14/06 Dollar on path for a crisis
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-path-breakdown/story.aspx?guid=%7B493DB507-8D51-487A-A977-5D64C49C0CC4%7D


it's all over the blogosphere, but I haven't found a good place with a chart

All Saints Day!!!! :eyes:

I about jumped out of my chair when I saw that album cover here. :D

Paradox Hotel for Christmas. He figured I'd like them since his dad (my brother) did, and he was right. Bro and I are old Genesis fans, probably has a bit to do with it. I was pretty blown away when I came across this image though....I felt so "hip and now" like "Hey, I know that name!!!". :hippie:

Of course, now that I've dated myself with the "hip and now" comment, it's time to return to being my old curmudgeon self. :P

it is hard to get good tips on music these days. Forget radio, their lists are too short and ossified. I get tips from my daughter-her tastes are as eclectic as mineB-)

The Road Back Home....looks like it might be a nice sampler of their previous works - sort of a "greatest hits" idea.

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-08-20 Monday, August 20 0.94518 USD
2007-08-21 Tuesday, August 21 0.943307 USD
2007-08-22 Wednesday, August 22 0.94162 USD
2007-08-23 Thursday, August 23 0.946432 USD
2007-08-24 Friday, August 24 0.950119 USD
2007-08-27 Monday, August 27 0.951022 USD
2007-08-28 Tuesday, August 28 0.941974 USD
2007-08-29 Wednesday, August 29 0.944109 USD
2007-08-30 Thursday, August 30 0.946342 USD
2007-08-31 Friday, August 31 0.94697 USD
2007-09-03 Monday, September 3 0.94697 USD
2007-09-04 Tuesday, September 4 0.953016 USD
2007-09-05 Wednesday, September 5 0.951656 USD
2007-09-06 Thursday, September 6 0.949307 USD
2007-09-07 Friday, September 7 0.948227 USD
2007-09-10 Monday, September 10 0.949487 USD
2007-09-11 Tuesday, September 11 0.958773 USD
2007-09-12 Wednesday, September 12 0.964134 USD
2007-09-13 Thursday, September 13 0.968617 USD
2007-09-14 Friday, September 14 0.971628 USD
2007-09-17 Monday, September 17 0.970214 USD
2007-09-18 Tuesday, September 18 0.977135 USD


Current values

Loonie:

Last trade 0.9836 Change -0.0006 (-0.06%)
Previous Close 0.9843 Open 0.9868
Low 0.9836 High 0.9868


Other combinations: (some of these may be yesterday's numbers)

AS.U07 AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 0.8626 -0.0048
HY.U07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 122.12 +0.44
RA.U07 EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.65200 +0.00485
GB.Z07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Dec (NYBOT) 0.7018 +0.0042
EP.Z07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Dec (NYBOT) 1.42170 +0.00205
EJ.U07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 159.92 +0.14
EU.U07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT) 1.3876 +0.00001


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's
rally above July's high crossing at .9692. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are overbought
and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be near. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at .9663 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight
action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.


Analysis

Do you see what I see? Take another look. Down at the bottom.



1.0000. Kewl.

We're not there yet, I doubt if it'll happen today, but that's what I said yesterday and everything went crazy.

Dollar-o) is on its way ($1US = $1CDN)...

(Bad news for Canada, if it does, IMHO...)

:donut: and lurkers...Damn, the cartoonist stole my funny! I remember cracking that joke on this thread a few days ago.....wonder if I can sue for creative idea infringement and retire rich.

OK, so I confess. I have a lava lamp. Actually I have 2. One at home and one in the clinic. I find them very relaxing. The one in the clinic is between the two cots along with my CD radio player that plays relaxing music and sounds. The kids love it and it is a soothing place for them to calm down or wait for parents to pick them up.

The one at home is on a table by the couch. I may be listening to the news, etc but I love watching the 'lava' percolate up to the top as the oil heats up. They some times merge together with other bubbles at the top-exploding almost-in to a larger bubble. You can even see shock waves when they merge into one bubble. Then, because of their own weight, they sink to the bottom, only to be heated again.

I was watching that lamp yesterday and listening to the business report. I guess I have become such a financial wonk because I was watching the lava lamp and pondering the nature of what the actions of the Fed. I find myself mesmerized by the actions going on in business. I am concerned but I feel so detached. The rate cuts that the Feds have done recently are like those 2 smaller bubbles in my lamp. They join forces and manage to stay afloat for a bit but eventually the weight will pull this now larger bubble down hard.

So what does this mean for main street average Joe. This is my humble opinion and postulation only, do not take it as advise, but this is what I will be doing.

Inflation will go up sharply. You don't have to know much economics to 'guess' that. The dollar has less value when buying commodities. From a practical point, I suggest even more strongly to stock your pantries and freezers. The dollar you spend today will be worth two in the near future. Food and fuel are taken out of the gov. calculations for a reason-they are very volatile and sensitive indicator. If your pantry is full, you have the luxury of shopping around for the best bargains. View it as a savings account against future expenditures and bank accordingly.

The stock market always goes up in a time of inflation, historically. It is seen as a way to give better return than what bank saving accounts, CD's, and other fixed rates can give. You will see a rush to put money in. Gold may dip because while it is seen as a safe have, it just 'keeps up' with inflation. Does that mean you should eschew gold. No way. I think a little gold, silver and portable wealth are a good thing-if only because they make you feel better.

If you have your debts payed down, good on ya mate. The only up side of this is paying old debt off with cheaper dollars. I plan to be as liquid as I can and pay cash. You can pick up a lot of bargains. I think we are in for a big wealth swap soon. You need to keep your powder dry and your eyes open.

Lots of folks are being mesmerized now, lured in to a false sense of security by the feds action, but folks on the SWT need to be more vigilant than ever.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

I appreciate your perspective. We (usual) lurkers need to hear what this means to the Average Joe & Jane and this is what you gave. Thanks!

The Fed Heads can't get it right. Even when they admit "I knew inflation was eating us alive, but we just had to come to the aid of the markets, which was wrong"...

So, with inflation still eating at us, what do they do? Something wrong.

Bottom line: the dollar will be worth less. Fuel and imported goods (aka almost everything we buy now) will go up in price. Those are the quickies. Your take-home pay will be worth less.

Think of it as a cut in salary. But everyone is still smiling like nothing is wrong.

Feloneous

Isn't 'worthless' one word in this use? :rofl:

Note: And this is just how they LIKE it... Groveling masses fighting for scraps. So, the 'haves' don't get their
thrid or fourth house this year. They get free labor! :sarcasm:

Worthless-the FEDS

worth less-your paycheck...but you knew that anyway;)

And another thing.....That will be free AMURIKAN labour cause the peso will be worth more than the dollar. Finally, we will reach the corporate goal and become another 3rd world country.

:hangover:

:thumbsup:

last week.

I don't always discuss my financial anxieties with the Spousal Unit as we are usually on the same page. No Debt, no debt, no debt.

But last Friday I laid out my deepest darkest fears about my year of worrying about the coming fincancial "slump" and fuel prices and food shortages (we're in a persistant drought here). And I hadn't even heard about Northern Rock at that point in the day.

So, seeing as we have enough in savings to put a lot of food stores back, we laid out a purchase and storage plan.

I have had a sense of creeping dread for a very, very long time. My gut is cautious but generally accurate.

I've been following the Stock Market Watch here for about 3 months. It has given me particulars and details, but didn't reveal anything I haven't known in my core for quite a while.

Thanks from a Lurking Fan


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

The pantry has lots of canned and boxed food, there is 8 lbs of USDA surplus spaghetti (in honor of the FSM), and lots of stuff in the freezer. I need to plant the winter vegies yet, but I do have a garden and fruit trees. Also, we can get lots of locally grown pears and walnuts.

As to debt, medical Ch. 7 has taken care of everything except our $165 mortgage and the money I owe Mom for the bankruptcy proceedings (no interest loan). You are permitted to "hate" us: our total housing cost (mortgage, insurance, property taxes) is ~ $350/mo. That is the only reason we can survive on $1200/month; after bills there is little left, so we cannot do lots of stocking up.

Dow 13,854.74 UP 115.35 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,680.55 UP 28.89 (1.09%)
S&P 500 1,537.55 UP 17.77 (1.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.55% UP 0.07
NYSE Volume 1,413,152,000
Nasdaq Volume 804,919,000

11:00 am : The indices are holding strong as the rate cut enthusiasm persists. Similar to yesterday, participants are showing some favoritism toward growth-oriented sectors like materials (+2.5%), energy (+1.4%) and financial (+1.5%).

The strength in the equity market looks to be taking a toll on the Treasury market which remains on the defensive as flight-to-quality trades get unwound.

The 10-year note is down 18 ticks bringing its yield up to 4.54%. On September 10 the yield on the 10-year note hit 4.32%. With oil prices topping $82 per barrel, inflation concerns are also impacting the fixed income market.DJ30 +105.84 NASDAQ +25.17 SP500 +15.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 855/1878/590 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 819/2293/388 mln

10:35 am : Buying interest has calmed after the excited start that followed yesterday's rate-cut rally and the huge gains in foreign markets overnight.

The one, notable laggard at this point from a sector standpoint is consumer staples (-0.04%), which stands to reason given its defensive-oriented status. In light of the Fed's rate cut, participants aren't feeling as risk averse as they were just a short time ago. :eyes:

Separately, the Dept. of Energy reported that crude stockpiles fell by 3.87 million barrels. That is larger than the expected drawdown of 2.025 million barrels. The initial reaction in the energy pits has been bullish with crude futures for October delivery now up $0.85 at $82.36 per barrel.DJ30 +83.56 NASDAQ +20.16 SP500 +12.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 757/1898/416 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 739/2287/276 mln

10:00 am : Yesterday's bullish bias has remained intact with the indices getting a nice boost in early trading.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS 68.30, -0.21) had a disappointing earnngs report with net income from continuing operations declining 7.0% and diluted earnings per share of $1.38 coming up $0.16 shy of the consensus estimate. That hasn't bothered the market or the financial sector (+1.5%), though, as the Fed's rate cut action has been a soothing influence.

The energy sector (+1.3%) is another early leader with oil prices topping $82 per barrel ahead of the government's inventory report at the bottom of the hour. Crude stockpiles are expected to show a drawdown of 2.025 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey.

DJ30 +80.88 NASDAQ +19.15 SP500 +12.41

09:45 am : The stock market has started the session on an upbeat note as the good vibes from yesterday's trading continue to be felt.

Huge gains in foreign markets have had a carryover effect in the U.S. where relatively good news on the inflation front and the thinking that the Fed's actions will prevent a recession have contributed to the buying interest.

Earlier it was reported that CPI for August declined 0.1% (consensus unchanged) while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% (consensus +0.2%) to leave the year-over-year increase in core-CPI at a palatable 2.1%.DJ30 +73.08 NASDAQ +19.02 SP500 +11.84

09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures hold solid gains heading into the open.

09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. A disappointing earnings report from Morgan Stanley and a drop in housing starts of 2.6% to the lowest level in 12 years would have riled the markets a few days ago, but financials and housing are both expected to benefit in the future from the rate cut. Futures therefore continue to firm.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.8. August CPI fell 0.1% compared to an expected unchanged level, while the core rate was up 0.2%, in line with expectations. These data haven't changed the upbeat tone.

08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.2. Further demand for stocks is evident as futures indicate an up open even after yesterday's strong rally. Oil is at $82.02 a barrel. Morgan Stanley reported profits below expectations. CPI data are due at 8:30 ET.

06:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0.

Dow 13,809.78 70.39 (0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,661.86 10.20 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,527.96 8.18 (0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 4.542% 0.062
NYSE Volume 2,567,324,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,476,021,000

1:30 pm : The broader indices continue to trade sideways since the last report, holding onto gains from the open.

Following gains in Asian and U.S. markets, the European markets closed higher with the FTSE up 2.8%, the DAX up 2.3% and the CAC up 3.3%.

Building and refiners continue to lag the rest of the market.DJ30 +72.91 NASDAQ +14.42 SP500 +9.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 975/1938/3.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1938/2281/3.35 bln

1:00 pm : There hasn't been any noteworthy change in the indices since the last report as gains for all ten economic sectors have kept them in a good position for market bulls.

At its current level, the Dow is less than 200 points away from its all time-high.

Separately, another indication that the market is feeling better about growth prospects in the wake of the Fed's actions is that the small-cap stocks are outperforming today by a large margin. To wit, the Russell 2000 is up 1.6% versus the 0.9% gain for the S&P 500. DJ30 +97.30 NASDAQ +22.58 SP500 +13.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 941/1960/1.17 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 983/2279/845 mln

12:30 pm : The indices are holding near their best levels of the session as there has yet to be any concerted activity on the part of sellers.

There are some pockets of weakness, though, incuding the building products (-1.8%), oil refining (-1.4%) and railroad (-1.2%) groups, which are the only S&P industry groups down more than 1.0%.

The Dow has its share of sponsorship, as there are only five components showing a loss, but none more than one point. Strikingly, technology components Microsoft (MSFT 28.48, -0.45), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 49.93, -0.24) and IBM (IBM 116.52, -0.11) are among the laggards.

The tech sector (+0.6%), overall, is up today but trailing the broader market.DJ30 +96.57 NASDAQ +23.35 SP500 +12.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 904/1962/1.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 915/2331/759 mln

12:00 pm : The rate cut enthusiasm that drove the major indices sharply higher yesterday hasn't faded today. Granted the gains aren't as big, but the follow-through interest is significant.

To this point there hasn't been any real inclination to sell into the strength. Anecdotally, that suggests participants are feeling good about the Fed's aggressive action and its ability to forestall the adverse economic effects that might arise from the disruption in the financial markets.

That optimism can be spotted in the performance of the S&P sectors today, as those areas with close ties to the economy comprise today's leadership.

The materials sector (+2.0%) leads the way in terms of percentage gains, but it is the financial sector (+0.8%) that carries the most weight in terms of influence on the broader market. Energy (+0.8%) and consumer discretionary (+1.0%) are other sectors of influence that are moving higher.

The energy sector's strength fits with the improved growth outlook that has followed the rate cut and it has also been driven by the uptick in crude prices.

Earlier today crude futures for October delivery topped $82 per barrel, hitting a high point of $82.51 right around the time the Dept. of Energy reported a 3.87 million barrel drawdown in crude stockpiles. Analysts had been expecting a draw of just 2.025 million barrels according to a Bloomberg survey.

Oil prices have fallen off today's best levels (-$0.03 to $81.48) as the bullish report had been discounted in recent action.

Nonetheless, the trend in oil prices, along with the weakening dollar and the lower fed fuds rate, has stoked some inflation concerns that have clipped the Treasury market. The 10-year note is down 19 ticks in today's trading, bringing its yield up to 4.55%.

On a related note, the August CPI report fell to the reassuring side of things in terms of inflation trends. Total CPI was reported down 0.1% while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2%. That was in line with estimates and left the year-over-year rate at 2.1%.

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS 66.66, -1.85) are getting clipped today, too, after the investment bank posted a third quarter profit of $1.38 per share that was $0.16 shy of the consensus estimate. The disappointment was already priced in for the most part, but today's news has provided a profit-taking excuse following yesterday's 5.5% gain in the stock.

The feeling that the market is getting a bit overbought on a short-term basis could invite some afternoon selling interest. In terms of the morning trade, though, it was pretty much a one-way street with buyers driving the action.DJ30 +92.42 NASDAQ +20.50 SP500 +12.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 852/1991/939 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 822/2395/646 mln

11:30 am : It has been primarily a one-way trade so far and the direction has been up. The broader market has been taking its cue from a rebounding financial sector (+1.4%), but it has plenty of positive focal points today when taking into account all 10 economic sectors are trading higher at this juncture.

Aiding in today's effort is the comment from Morgan Stanley's (MS 67.87, -0.64) CFO that the worst of the credit crisis is over and the insight from Verizon's (VZ 43.83, +0.52) CEO who reportedly sees nothing indicating a business downturn.

26 of the 30 Dow components are trading higher. Caterpillar (CAT 79.13, +1.67) sits atop the list of winners.DJ30 +108.36 NASDAQ +26.72 SP500 +16.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 766/2037/784 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 811/2365/552 mln

actually, the Co-op. That has to be the best thing I have done in years. Fresh, organic veggies like clock work every Wednesday. I never know what will be in my bags, but it is always great, and most of it local. My grocery bills have actually gone down. I think it is because there is less impulse buying. My bucks go a lot further now too. Start scouting around and keep an eye out for these little gems. We save more and don't sacrifice quality. And the best part....it is close to work. I spend very little time shopping anymore.

See you manana.

I don't trade crude - but I do look. There is a bizzare price inversion I think.
It has made 7 straight record highs thru today. Closed at about 82. But as the futures go out in time it drops a lot, like 10 a barrel. Why??

I listened to the some of the explainations given - and they sound like BS to me.

Cause in the end - doesn't the inversion really mean that some "significant interest" is betting on events going on, driving the price, now and that they will not be there in six months? What events? Demand is going to drop 12% or so 6 months from now???

Like I said I don't trade crude - but maybe some of you do -any idea who the big players are here??

Is it Mesa - a relation?? This smells like Pickens to me - It stinks.

Joe

OPEC production boost?

Slowing US economy?

Another shoe going to drop.

Why the bet on current price - why not go out a little in the future - why???

At 10 a barrel - wouldn't you???

There is something so wrong with this picture.

And I am telling you - if this is Pickens work - and it smells like it to me - then watch out. That man - I do not like him for the things he did to dads company - but he is a goddamn genuis too. A ruthless genuis.

I would never bet against him - I saw and studied just how he did in one the the seven sisters - his little pissant company.

Is he long here?? It is a really good question.

Joe

Check CNBC's site

I thought cnbc kicked him off???

Joe

Pickens: Crude Oil Could Hit $100 by Next Year
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20870131/


Was posting from my phone...had to jump to the laptop to look it up. :)


I'm going back to the couch to lay down again, though. TheraFlu is finally starting help.


Have a good one! :hi:

It is him - he is doing this. That bastard took down the Mellons once - this is his fingerprint here. I have seen it before, I don't think he even cares.

Joe

A carefully constructed compromise on a draft law governing Iraq’s rich oil fields, agreed to in February after months of arduous talks among Iraqi political groups, appears to have collapsed. The apparent breakdown comes just as Congress and the White House are struggling to find evidence that there is progress toward reconciliation and a functioning government here.

Contributing to the dispute is the decision by the Kurds to begin signing contracts with international oil companies before the federal law is passed. The most recent instance, announced last week on a Kurdish government Web site, was an oil exploration contract with the Hunt Oil Company of Dallas.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/13/world/middleeast/13baghdad.html?


edit to add link for oil buddies
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/053047.php

Would they make a deal with that bastard - in a heatbeat.

I give Pickens this much credit - he says what he is going to do - and then he does it.

Th Kurds annexed Kirkuk by their own referendum last month.

Joe

The big investment banks (i.e. Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns) love to invest in oil and oil derivative futures. They tend to duck out of the market preceding an election so as not to draw attention to themselves. High oil and gasoline prices are popular election year topics. If prices settle down well before an election - the political soapboxes are deprived of a hot-button issue.

Just an observation.

I respect that.

There is a big short interest in the br houses now - sachs, stearn, etc...

Why??

They didn't move down - there is no momentum play there.

They sure do bet on oil though.

Something is wrong with this picture!!!!

Joe

Dow 13,815.56 Up 76.17 (0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,666.48 Up 14.82 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,529.03 Up 9.25 (0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.524% Up 0.044
NYSE Volume 3,847,956,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,233,876,000

4:20 pm : The rate-cut rally on Tuesday persisted on Wednesday, as the major indices pressed onward in the wake of a pleasing inflation report and continued enthusiasm about the Fed's actions.

Although the gains on Wednesday weren't nearly as large as the ones registered in the prior session, they were still significant in that there wasn't any concerted selling interest throughout the day. Moreover, it was evident that participants were feeling less risk averse as small-cap stocks outperformed and the Treasury market remained on the defensive.

In turn, the financial sector (+0.6%) looked past a disappointing earnings report from Morgan Stanley (MS 67.43, -1.48) and added to Tuesday's 4.5% advance; although the investment banking group (+0.2%) showed some relative weakness.

The financial sector performed in line with the market, but tellingly, all ten economic sectors ended the day higher. The telecom services sector (+1.4%) led the way and was followed by utilities (+1.4%) and basic materials (+1.4%).

The energy sector (+0.8%) also provided some sponsorship for today's move as rising oil prices once again sparked buying interest in related stocks. Crude futures hit their highs for the day ($82.51) right about the time the Dept. of Energy reported a 3.87 million barrel drawdown in stockpiles versus expectations for a decline of 2.025 million barrels.

Crude futures for October delivery finished off their highs (+$0.28 at $81.79) as the bullish inventory report had been largely priced in already. However, the improved growth outlook that followed the Fed's rate cut kept a bid in the market. Crude futures have risen approximately 15% in the past month.

While rising oil prices have stoked inflation concerns, the CPI report for August didn't cause any shockwaves. Total CPI actually declined 0.1% while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%. The latter was in line with expectations and left the year-over-year increase at a palatable 2.1%.

Tomorrow's economic calendar features the weekly initial claims, Leading Indicators, and Philadelphia Fed Index reports. FedEx (FDX 107.51, -1.48), Bear Stearns (BSC 115.64, -3.56), Goldman Sachs (GS 205.50, +5.00), Circuit City (CC 10.57, +0.15), Carnival Corp. (CCL 47.30, +0.60), Nike (NKE 58.56, -0.23) and Oracle (ORCL 20.84, +0.11) are the luminaries on the earnings calendar.

The market will also be keeping a close eye on the testimony on the mortgage market from Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson before the House Financial Services Committee that will begin at 10:00 ET.DJ30 +76.17 NASDAQ +14.82 R2K +1.3% SP500 +9.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1002/1982/2.21 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1153/2170/1.67 bln