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Clinton has 21 point lead in New Hampshire poll

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bigworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 06:51 AM
Original message
Clinton has 21 point lead in New Hampshire poll
Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hillary Clinton has a 21-point lead over fellow Democrat Barack Obama in New Hampshire, one of the first states to vote in the nominating process for the 2008 U.S. presidential election, a poll showed on Sunday.

In a poll by Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, 41 percent of likely Democratic voters support Clinton followed by 20 percent for Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois. Former Sen. John Edwards was third with 11 percent.

Among likely Republican voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had a slight lead with 26 percent support, followed by 20 percent for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and 17 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, a Hollywood actor who officially entered the race last month, had 10 percent support.

The poll surveyed 1,512 registered New Hampshire voters and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points for the results for Democrats and 5.5 percentage points for Republicans.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1327481220071014



As someone who doesn't really support her, I want to think that the lead is more name recognition than true support, but the folks in NH are usually pretty well-informed about politics.
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glowing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 07:11 AM
Response to Original message
1. And how many are still undecided.. It seems if you are for Clinton
you know... Most are still undecided.
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flordehinojos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. i listened to her barn storming last week in new hampshire ... and my intuition, or if you prefer,
the dialogue between me and me after i listened to her, told me that if anyone is to bring this country back closer to even the smallest fraction of where it was before, hillary will be the one to do it.

i know that when the bushit boy speaks my strong reaction is to turn off the television, or at least turn the mute button on. i can't stand to listen to him.

i don't know if you have the same reaction to hillary as i do to bush. my husband does.

but, if you don't have that reaction to hillary as my husband does to her, or i do to bush, and if you do pause to listen to what she is saying ... who knows what would happen.
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mwb970 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. I think Hillary is gradually winning people over.
It's the same thing that happened in her Senate career. People said she had negatives too high to win, they called her a carpetbagger, etc. But she did win, and went on to be a particularly successful and popular Senator, with approval numbers in the 60%s. That has to include some Republicans, although of course the farther-out wingnut types long ago closed their minds to her.

Perhaps you saw this recent item from the Boston Globe (October 9, 2007):

Many warming unexpectedly to Clinton

For at least a decade, the inflexibility of voter attitudes toward Clinton had come to be treated as an immutable law of American politics. On the question of Hillary, strategists of both parties concluded, voters had become split into two camps, pro and con, with firmly defined opinions, leaving few undecided and those on all sides generally unsusceptible to persuasion.

Yet over the summer, some voters appear to have changed their minds about the senator. On the key question asked by pollsters - do you view her favorably or unfavorably? - the numbers ticked in small but significant ways in Clinton's direction: a four percentage-point increase among those who like her and a three-point decrease among those who dislike her, according to an analysis of 77 surveys since early 2006 performed by Charles Franklin, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

Now her favorability rating nationwide stands at 49.8 percent - on the cusp of the 50 percent threshold widely viewed as a prerequisite for a successful candidacy, according to the analysis.

The change has surprised many polling specialists who believe that it's difficult - if not impossible - to change the public perception of a very well known figure, especially reducing the numbers who view that person negatively. Nonetheless, Franklin found that the divide in voters' views of Clinton is "hardened, but not absolutely ossified. We're not even into the heart of the campaign, and there's been a good bit of movement."

(More here.)


Personally, I was skeptical of Hillary at first, even as a big FOB (Fan Of Bill), but her debate performances and general breadth and maturity have convinced me that she would be a good president. I believe that others will come to the same conclusion.
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bigworld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. She COULD win, of course,
but it will be really hard. There are a LOT of people, even democrats, who really don't like her and will probably stay home come election day. On the other hand, the people who viscerally HATE her probably wouldn't vote for the (D) candidate anyway.

I don't think she'd be a horrible president, I think getting there will be hard path.
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UncleTomsEvilBrother Donating Member (174 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. It's starting to get interesting because.....
....we pretty much know that the Republicans will vote for their own man, regardless of who he is. (Exhibit A. '00, Exhibit B. '04). What I'm wondering about, though, is how the Dems and Independent who either hate Hill or fear her will do when it's election.

After all, even a non-vote could be a vote for the Republican candidate in this election.
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 09:30 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. The answer is "no"
We value independent thought, but you guys go right on ahead and follow the corporate leadersheep. Good luck with that and I hope you don't have any draft-age children/grandchildren.
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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. That was in a very Democratic state. She MAY win the general, but
she doesn't give us the best chance of doing so.
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flordehinojos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. thanks for your post and for the link to the Boston Globe article ...
i had not seen it ... and yes, i concur with you (but precisely because of her maturity and responses to difficult situations, GHWB, who has promised to give her hell if she ran for the presidency, will turn the whole thing into an emotional-simply react-no time-to-think-fest which might work against her. i hope not!)
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RaRa Donating Member (705 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-16-07 09:24 AM
Response to Reply #3
19. I watched her on C-Span in NH
and was also surprised at how well she came across. My feelings toward her warmed at that moment too. That said, I have very little faith in her as a President. I feel there would be little of the HUGE change we need and that she would likely be a one term President. Plus, I dread the Clinton bashing we would once again be subjected to. There's just so much baggage (real and perceived) with her that it would be a most unpleasant 4 years. Of course it would be better than what we've got now....But I would like more than just "better".
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Harper_is_Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-15-07 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
17. Nice post. Some honesty, which is needed around here re: Hillary. n/t
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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 08:51 AM
Response to Original message
7. Why? Why? Why?
We have so many great candidates. I'd like any of them besides Hillary. I'd support her in the general election, but unfortunately, more than half of America would not.
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. It was ordained years ago.
The Machine is behind her as is the MSM, not to mention all those millions of corporate dollars. Oh, she'll "win" the nomination alright, but the General? Who knows. She's got WAAAYYYY too many negatives with the conservatives and the real democrats.
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BigDDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-16-07 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #9
18. the machine, MSM, corporations.....
don't forget to add "the powers that be" and the DLC to your
conspiracy theories. Cover all your bases!
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Harper_is_Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-15-07 07:41 PM
Response to Reply #7
16. Upon what do you base your claim about "more than half of America"? n/t
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liberalhistorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 10:58 AM
Response to Original message
10. I wonder how they'd feel if they knew
her vote on that goddamned Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, and how she still doesn't get it; she still believes the Bushit on Iran AFTER knowing the Bushit on Iraq was just that, Bushit.
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BearSquirrel2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
11. As Hillary rises ...

As Hillary rises, so does Republican spirits. In 2004 they came out against Gay Marriage. In 2008 it will be Hillary if they win. Take Hillary out of the equation and you will have taken SO much air out of the Republican sails.

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noonwitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-15-07 09:45 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. Hillary can take any of their front-runners.
Especially intellectual light-weights like Romney and Guiliani. She'll destroy "check with my lawyers before invading Iran" Romney and the man who wears drag occasionally and is on his third marriage.

She'd face a tougher challenge from Thompson or McCain-Thompson, because the right will rally to him and McCain, because average Joes like him (although I doubt he will be nominated).

I'm pretty sure Hillary will win the Michigan primary, since only she and Kucinich are going to be on the ballot.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-14-07 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
13. How far ahead in the polls was Dean at this point, does anyone know?
Dean was ahead before the NH caucus, but I don't recall how much. How much ahead was he about 3 mos beforehand?
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MilesColtrane Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-15-07 07:19 PM
Response to Original message
15. Not suprising in a centrist state...
In an exit poll of voters in the 2004 Democratic primary there, just over 50% of those asked considered themselves a liberal.

I hope ALL the candidates stay in at least until Super Tuesday.
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