STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 27

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 27, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 449 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2480 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2200 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2161
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 27, 2007

Dow... 13,806.70 +134.78 (+0.99%)
Nasdaq... 2,804.19 +53.33 (+1.94%)
S&P 500... 1,535.28 +20.88 (+1.38%)
Gold future... 787.50 +16.50 (+2.10%)
30-Year Bond 4.68% +0.03 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.39% +0.04 (+0.85%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

BY BRIAN PRETTI

In a number of recent discussions, I’ve expressed my concern over the character of current circumstances in the US credit markets. I remain convinced that financial market and real economic outcomes moving forward heavily depend on US credit market outcomes. Without going into massive detail, Fed rate cuts up to this point have done absolutely nothing to stop the erosion in asset backed commercial paper markets (ABCP). Nothing. As of the latest data (Oct. 23rd), ABCP continues its literally uninterrupted contraction started this summer. Moreover, Fed rate cuts have done nothing to stop the contraction in mortgage credit availability stateside, although admittedly this is a bit unfair as the first rate cut occurred a whopping one month ago. But you get the picture. In many senses, the Fed can cut all they want and literally go on a repo issuance rampage. The main question of the moment is can the US credit markets heal enough to provide the circumstances for reacceleration of the macro US credit cycle? Yes or no? Moreover, even if this were to occur, will households then borrow and spend at ever-greater levels? Again, it all comes back to the credit markets. Having said this, as it applies to the financial markets, we need to keep our eyes on one other important ball at the moment - the Yen carry trade.

Alive And Well, And Living In Manhattan (and Greenwich, the Caymans, London, etc.)

The Yen carry trade is certainly a very important "other side" to the total financial market story, especially as far as the equity markets are concerned. It's time for a brief check in. Why? Well, almost magically on cue, as of August of this year, the year over year rate of change in the Japanese monetary base has again turned positive. Once again, the BOJ is on the job as the global liquidity quickie Mart we've all come to know and love.

-cut-

In the charts below I'll show you exactly what I’m talking about, and hopefully a few technical signs to watch for as we move ahead that may indeed provide directional guidance as to the twists and turns in both the US and emerging equity markets. First, please be forewarned that I’m only using year-to-date data here. In no way can we generalize about the long term when analyzing short periods of financial market experience. But the reason I’m homing in on the short term is that this is what is working now. Will it always be that way? I have absolutely no idea, so we work with what has been working in recent market experience until it's no longer valid. I believe that in many ways, what has transpired this year in both Yen movement and in the clear carry trade relationships is indeed in part reaction to the US credit cycle.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

same scam but what's going to happen when the people and institutions have to buy Gold to replace what they borrowed and sold at low interest?

The spread is much more than what they made on the difference in what they paid and the interest that they had to pay the Central banks.

Somebody is going to get burned at paying nearly $800 an ounce. The spread from a year ago is 31.86%.

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose above $93 a barrel to a new trading high in Asia Monday after Mexico's state oil company said it was suspending about a fifth of its oil production due to a storm.

The news that Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, was to shut as much as 600,000 barrels of daily crude production came amid political tensions in the Mideast, a weak U.S. dollar and a tight supply outlook that had already pushed crude oil to record prices.

The Pemex shut-in "is the one that has pushed prices above $93," said Victor Shum, a Singapore-based energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz. "This is on top of what has already been simmering."

-cut-

Oil futures have gained almost $8 a barrel, or 9 percent, since the U.S. Department of Energy reported last Wednesday a sharp drop in the country's crude stocks.

-cut-

The U.S. dollar's descent against major currencies has drawn investors to crude futures as a hedge against the weakening currency and made dollar-denominated oil futures less expensive to people dealing in other currencies, said David Moore, commodities strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

Or so CNBC had on its ticker early this morning.

NEW YORK - Stan O'Neal, the beleaguered chief executive of Merrill Lynch & Co., was reportedly close to resigning Sunday amid broad criticism for leading the world's largest brokerage to its biggest quarterly loss since it was founded 93 years ago.

In a week that included an $7.9 billion write-down related to subprime mortgages and O'Neal's unauthorized overture to sell the company to retail bank Wachovia Corp., the board of Merrill Lynch reached a broad consensus Friday for his dismissal, according to several media reports. He would become the highest-ranking casualty of the global credit crisis that swept through Wall Street's biggest investment banks during the third quarter.

An announcement of his departure could come as soon as Sunday evening or Monday morning, according to reports in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071029/ap_on_bi_ge/merrill_lynch_ceo

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/071029/3/3a0wt.html

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian stocks hit a record high on Monday and the dollar plumbed an all-time low versus the euro and a basket of major currencies as investors bet the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week.

A wilting dollar coupled with a brief halt to one-fifth of Mexico's production fired up oil prices, sending U.S. crude above $93 a barrel for the first time. Gold rode on the coat-tails of oil to a 28-year high of $792.60 an ounce and other base metals such as copper also firmed on the weak dollar.

Further lifted by upbeat earnings from firms such as Nissan Motor , Japan's Nikkei average climbed 1.6 percent to a one-week high by 0337 GMT, while MSCI's measure of other Asia Pacific stocks advanced 1.9 percent.

The MSCI index hit an all-time high of 585.32, surpassing the previous peak of 574.04 set on Friday and has gained more than 45 percent this year -- triple the gains for MSCI's main world equity index .

"A (U.S.) rate cut is already factored in and this is helping to boost the Nikkei," said Masayoshi Okamoto, head of dealing at Jujiya Securities.

Lower U.S. interest rates should boost economic growth in Asia's main export market, and also make equity valuations more attractive.

Among major markets in the region, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and South Korea's KOSPI both reached new life highs, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index was a whisker away from its record high set on October 15.

After two straight weeks of losses, Chinese mainland stocks rebounded, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index over 2 percent higher.

/...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071029:MTFH94442_2007-10-29_05-05-02_HKG59180&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage1

China Construction Bank was the morning's fourth most active stock, racing up to a record high after posting a third-quarter net profit of 22.8 billion yuan, thanks to higher fee income . Its shares settled up nearly 6 percent to HK$8.23.

Bank of Communications (3328.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) soared 15.5 percent to HK$14.88, also having earlier set a new peak, after HSBC confirmed its stake in the Chinese lender is now 19 percent, up from 18.6 percent .

Among shares in Hong Kong property developers, Wheelock & Co Ltd (0020.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) led the way, racing up 11.6 percent to HK$25.10.

Many analysts believe cheaper mortgages are about to spark a homebuying frenzy in Hong Kong, which usually follows U.S. interest rate moves because of its currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar.

/...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-10/29/content_6972052.htm

NANNING, Oct. 29 (Xinhua) -- Chinese and Southeast Asia's political and business leaders and World Bank officials gathering at an annual business summit in south China have showed great confidence in sound regional economic growth in the region.

"The ratio of regional trade to the world's total has increased by 13 percentage points over the past dozens of years" thanks to rapid regional trade integration which involves China, said Johnnah Joy Phumaphi, vice president of the World Bank at the Fourth China-ASEAN Expo, which opened on Sunday in the southern China city of Nanning, along with the Fourth China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit.

China and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries have witnessed rapid growth in bilateral trade, which increased by 191 times -- from less than 8 billion U.S. dollars in 1991 to 160.8 billion dollars in 2006, an annual average growth of more than 20 percent.

In the first nine months this year, China-ASEAN trade reached 146.5 billion dollars, up 26 percent year on year.

Judging from the current growth momentum, both China and ASEAN members believe bilateral trade would top the mark of 200 billion dollars in 2008, two years ahead the set target.

Participants in the summit agreed that if bilateral trade keeps rising at the present rate of higher than 20 percent, the ASEAN would become one of China's top trade partners in 2010 when the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is in place.

By that time, the world's most populous free trade area, with a total population of 2 billion, would become a new engine to drive the growth of the world economy, observers said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071029/bs_wl_afp/forexasia_071029072250;_ylt=AoQcthdmaA2Obm7FMx2bxsCmOrgF

TOKYO (AFP) - The dollar sank to a new record low against the euro in Asian trade Monday as market players grew increasingly confident about the prospect of another US interest rate cut this week, analysts said.

The euro hit 1.4426 dollars in early Tokyo morning trade, breaking the 1.44 level for the first time since the single European currency's creation in 1999.

The euro stayed around the record levels in the afternoon, changing hands at 1.4420 dollars against 1.4391 dollars in New York on Friday.

The dollar also slipped to 114.15 yen from 114.24 in New York, while the euro rose to 164.64 yen from 164.37.

"The market is confident about selling the dollar because the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates again" on Wednesday, said Kenichi Yumoto of Societe Generale.

/...

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Economy/10163326.html

Dubai: There is still uncertainity over a new deadline to establish GCC monetary union, replacing the present 2010 deadline, as regional central bank governors yesterday began to address the technical, legislative and fiscal hurdles faced by the member states during a two-day meeting in Jeddah.

The meeting, which concludes today, is expected to also discuss alternatives, should the 2010 deadline be missed. A new deadline could be announced by the Gulf leaders at the next GCC summit in December.

Five of the six Gulf countries are likely to move away from the dollar peg to a basket of currencies to partly offset inflationary pressures, as the central bank governors differed the planned monetary union deadline of 2010.

/...

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Economy/10163507.html

Dubai: The Gulf countries including the UAE have no compelling reasons to change their exchange rate policies away from their peg to the dollar, a senior analyst with Moody's Investor Service said in Dubai yesterday.

"Currency appreciation will reduce the impact of imported inflation in these countries in the short term. However, the role of imported inflation is relatively small, while the expansionary fiscal policies and the domestic constraints are the primary reasons for inflation in the Gulf countries," Tristan Cooper, vice-president, Sovereign Risk Unit of Moody's, said.

/...

Low 76.777 2007-10-29 08:55:32
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.037 Change +0.032 (+0.04%)

US Dollar At Record Low, Oil At Record High - Will These Extremes Moderate Next Week?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_At_Record_Low__1193435432242.html

The US dollar fell to yet another record low against the Euro on Friday as traders remain overwhelmingly bearish on the greenback. However, the markets have remained bullish on nearly everything else, including commodities. In fact, oil continued to trade near record highs above $90/bbl on Friday amidst escalating tensions between the US and Iran as well as Turkish warnings of a broader assault on Kurdish militants in Iraq. The US dollar will find little support given the sharp rally in oil, and economic data isn’t helping the case either. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey exacerbated fears of a consumer-led recession in the US, as the October reading was unexpectedly revised down to 80.9 – the lowest since June 2006. Stock market tumbles undoubtedly played a hand in the deterioration in sentiment, and further market routs will only leave consumers more pessimistic. Will the dollar’s woes ever end? Within the next few days: probably not. Indeed, the currency faces major event risk this coming week from the FOMC rate decision, the release of Q3 GDP, and non-farm payrolls. The central bank decision and GDP reading hit the wires on the same day, and the former will garner much of the attention. Fed fund futures now price in a 92 percent chance of a 25bp cut on October 31st to 4.50 percent, but there is speculation that Bernanke & Co. could surprise the markets. Will they slash the benchmark rate by 50bp like they did in September as economic conditions worsen, or will they show the DJIA and the S&P tough love by leaving policy unchanged? And what about oil? Given current geopolitical tensions and undeniably strong demand for the commodity, there is much talk about oil jumping to the psychologically important $100/bbl level. Volatility is soaring, and while the greenback is likely to remain weak and oil strong in coming days, all of this wild price action creates the potential for steep corrections market wide.

...more...

Dollar: How Low Can It Go?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar__How_Low_Can_It_1193635666028.html

“For the time being,“ we noted in our Friday commentary, “the market views US monetary policy as highly accommodative and ECB policy as neutral at worst. In short US rates will continue to decline while EZ rates will remain steady. As long as that dynamic persists, aided by supportive equity markets the EURUSD should continue its inexorable march towards 1.4500.”

This week, the markets saw further evidence of US slowdown as Exiting Homes plunged -8.0% lower, jobless claims recorded their second consecutive print of 330K+ claims and Durable Goods contracted -1.7% against expectations of a 1.5% rise. Even the seemingly positive New Homes number was deceptive as prior months reading was revised downward demonstrating that the housing sector is in a full out recession.

Little wonder then, that as data hit the screens rumors started to circulate that the Fed will cut rates by 50bp rather than the expected 25bp at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Should that occur the EURUSD can easily hit 1.4500 as the interest rate differential in the pair will compress to a mere 25bp lead for the greenback. Already EZ 2 year swap rates are higher than those of the US indicating that fixed income markets are betting that US rates will fall below those of the Euro-Zone. On the flip side, with anti-dollar sentiment so prevalent in the market a 25bp cut may spur a relief rally for the greenback, especially if the NFP numbers due two days later print at 100K+ or above. The Fed appears to have made a calculated decision to offset the loss in housing wealth with strong growth in exports. If that policy results in steady labor markets, their gamble may just pay off and the greenback should stabilize. For now, however, theses are the darkest of times for dollar bulls. – BS.



...more...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119340698261172889.html?mod=todays_us_money_and_investing
AAA to Junk in a Day Raises More Questions About Credit Arbiters

Just days after Merrill Lynch & Co. rocked the markets with a $8.4 billion write-down tied mainly to problematic mortgage-related investment holdings, Moody's Investors Service Inc. commenced a fresh series of credit-rating downgrades of similar instruments.

The unit of Moody's Corp. expects more downgrades to continue in the coming week, something that could hang over the market in the days ahead.

The ratings firm cut, or said it was likely to cut, credit ratings on scores of collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, which are financial instruments often tied to the fate of mortgage-backed securities. Some of these CDOs were cut from the highest possible AAA ratings to junk, an especially noteworthy step.

The rating firms have already downgraded more than $50 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities in the past few months. Now, the fallout is spreading to other instruments that are tied to these investments.

The subprime-mortgage market has seen soaring delinquencies after years of aggressive bank lending. Lending standards became especially lax in 2006 and early 2007, even though housing had already shown signs of peaking. Subprime mortgages were the collateral in all of these investments.

The latest actions began on Wednesday evening, the day Merrill announced its write-down, and will continue until the end of October. They included several CDOs that were underwritten by Merrill since 2006.

The actions by Moody's -- downgrades or a notice that the debt might be downgraded -- are sure to bring new heat to the rating services themselves. Many critics have argued that Moody's, McGraw-Hill Cos. unit Standard & Poor's and other ratings services were too positive in their initial ratings of these investments, and then too slow to downgrade them once the housing market slowed. "When investors see a bond go from AAA to junk in just over six months, the rating agency's credibility suffers. It's clear their ratings methodology was fundamentally flawed," said Derrick Wulf, portfolio manager at Dwight Asset Management.

...

Some of the CDO downgrades on the week were severe, with ratings going from investment-grade to junk in one fell swoop, a harsh assessment that will affect the overall valuation of deals backed by these instruments. This "shows that the collateral value is eroding faster" than the rating firms expected, said Julian Mann, a portfolio manager at First Pacific Advisors.

One $873 million CDO slice was rated AAA -- the highest of 10 investment-grade rankings. It was cut 10 notches to a junk rating of Ba1 by Moody's. Ratings on another $229 million of AAA securities within a CDO were slashed 14 notches to a junk rating of B2. In addition, Moody's left the door open to further downgrades on both these slices.

Although the move was widely anticipated, in light of the subprime downturn, the scale and the severity of the downgrades and potential downgrades could force some investors to sell their CDO holdings at reduced prices. The fact that these CDOs are out of favor with investors and not easily traded means the price cuts likely need to be deep to attract willing buyers.

/...

http://www.dailypress.com/news/opinion/dp-out_europe_1028oct28,0,7063129.story

In the global economy, today's winners can become tomorrow's losers in a twinkling, and vice versa. Not so long ago, American pundits and economic analysts were snidely touting U.S. economic superiority to the "sick old man" of Europe. What a difference a few months can make. Today, with the stock market jittery over Iraq, the mortgage crisis, huge budget and trade deficits, and declining growth in productivity, investors are wringing their hands about the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, analysts point to the roaring economies of China and India as the only bright spots on the global horizon.

But what about Europe? You may be surprised to learn how our estranged trans-Atlantic partner has been faring during these roller-coaster times — and how successfully it has been knocking down the Europessimist myths about it.

Myth 1. The sclerotic European economy is incapable of leading the world.

Who're you calling sclerotic? The European Union's $16 trillion economy has been quietly surging for some time and has emerged as the largest trading bloc in the world, producing nearly a third of the global economy. That's more than the U.S. economy (27 percent) or Japan's (9 percent). Despite all the hype, China is still an economic dwarf, accounting for less than 6 percent of the world's economy. India is smaller still.

...

Myth 2. Nobody wants to invest in European companies and economies because lack of competitiveness makes them a poor bet.

...

Myth 3. Europe is the land of double-digit unemployment.

...

Myth 4. The European "welfare state" hamstrings businesses and hurts the economy.

...

Europe is more of a "workfare state" than a welfare state. As one British political analyst said to me recently: "Europe doesn't so much have a welfare society as a comprehensive system of institutions geared toward keeping everyone healthy and working." Properly understood, Europe's economy and social system are two halves of a well-designed "social capitalism" — an ingenious framework in which the economy finances the social system to support families and employees in an age of globalized capitalism that threatens to turn us all into internationally disposable workers. Europeans' social system contributes to their prosperity, rather than detracting from it, and even the continent's conservative political leaders agree that it is the best way.

...

Myth 5. Europe is likely to be held hostage to its dependence on Russia and the Middle East for most of its energy needs.

Crystal-ball gazing on this front is risky. Europe may rely on energy from Russia and the Middle East for some time, but it is also leading the world in reducing its energy dependence and in taking action to counteract global climate change. In March, the heads of all 27 E.U. nations agreed to make renewable energy sources 20 percent of the union's energy mix by 2020 and to cut carbon emissions by 20 percent.

In pursuit of these goals, the continent's landscape is slowly being transformed by high-tech windmills, massive solar arrays, tidal power stations, hydrogen fuel cells and energy-saving "green" buildings. Europe has gone high- and low-tech: It's developing not only mass public transit and fuel-efficient vehicles but also thousands of kilometers of bicycle and pedestrian paths to be used by people of all ages. Europe's ecological "footprint," the amount of the Earth's capacity that a population consumes, is about half that of the United States.

/...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071029:MTFH04754_2007-10-29_12-35-34_L29306454&type=comktNews&rpc=44

FRANKFURT, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Miners buoyed by takeover news and firming oil stocks pushed European shares slightly higher by midday on Monday and the mood of investors lightened in anticipation of a U.S. rate cut later in the week.

At 1216 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares was up 0.8 percent at 1,588.61 points, rising for a third session in a row. Europe's benchmark index is up 6.3 percent on the year.

/...

:donut: and lurkers. I have ALWAYS and I repeat ALWAYS disagreed with 'eCONomists' in this country that poopooed the European economic model-even before I visited Europe. When Reagan was busy busting unions here in this country saying they decreased productivity-the most productive economy next to the US was Germany....and I can assure you they have strong unions. At that point-I realized we were being lied to. Shortly after that, there was the German unification and the economy went down. I told many of my friends (German or no) that this was a great thing and that, while the German economy would be hindered by re absorption problems-the end would be a stronger and better Germany. And it has, after a generation-come to pass.
I am a person that has never minded paying taxes as long as I get a value for the money I give up. I have not felt that way since Reagan to be honest (or maybe Carter)with maybe a respite with Clinton. I see my money being taken but I don't see my life improving. The roads are crumbling, we are burdened by a health care system that doesn't work, states are having to increase state taxation because the Fed block grants for social services are smaller and smaller....I could go on and on, but you get the picture. So I ask this one simple question....If the government isn't here to represent and serve me....what in the hell am I paying these taxes for.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

Why are you so ungrateful to our grand military-industrial complex?


:sarcasm:

and it ain't that grand:eyes:

:P

We were in Europe right after the full adoption of the Euro (Feb. 2002). We could see then that given their economic system(s), population and the single currency, they would eventually take the lead in the world. Add to that- their knowledge of history, culture and all-too-recent military history, and they definitely have several steps up on the US.

They do get more for their money: healthcare, infrastructure, pensions, and an economy that -horrors- does do planning for the future, meaning farther out then the next quarter. And workers have more rights and say in what happens at their work- strike anyone?

Kind of wish I could live there...
(Oh, well, California isn't all bad- besides Hawaii and Alaska, it is about as far from Washington DC as one can get.)

In North America, we're giving green technology lip service. There's a few experiments running and a few showpieces so people can say "look, we've got a windmill".

I was just in England. They're everywhere. You'll see a whole hillside covered in them. Flying out of Manchester, I spotted a couple of hundred of them out in the sea.

One of the things I noticed was that everyone wore darker coloured clothes. Then it hit me...you can wash dark clothes less because they don't show the dirt as quickly. I love to stay with friends in these countries because I learn so much.

Now we are big on wind power in Texas (of course). Our big worry is that Texas is a migratory route for many birds but other than that, it has been embraced whole heartedly. The windmills look so cool on the mesas of west Texas.

all over Bavaria when I was in Germany last year.

Cross Posted from this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3045943&mesg_id=3046310


Read more: http://www.wlox.com/Global/story.asp?S=7275672&nav=6DJI


Sorry can't comment, gotta run.

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

in the summers we would sometimes go with him on long hauls. It was always an eye opening experience. I feel for these guys, now more than ever. The small independent drivers are squeezed by overhead and now competing with truckers from Mexico. Prices will shoot through the roof.

I love my teamsters:hug:

10/24/07 Revisiting Predictions Made a Year Ago: Who is on Earth, on the Moon and Who was a “Lunatic”

having a little more than a year passed since this blogger first made in August 2006 his call for a 2007 housing bust, financial turmoil, credit crunch and hard landing (recession) for the U.S. economy it is worth revisiting such a call.

This analyst still holds the view that the US will experience a hard landing that is already in the making and that could formally be in full swing by the beginning of 2008.

Indeed, a year later we have now seen the biggest housing recession in US history that is getting worse by the day, a collapse and total meltdown of the sub-prime market, the beginning of a massive credit crunch in near prime and prime mortgages and a massive episode of financial volatility and turmoil taking the form of a severe liquidity and credit crunch.

lots more...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/222636

at the end of this year-we make our predictions for the next year and then pull it up toward the end of the year. We can also include some of our eCONomists predictions too and see who gets to eat ground glass. I have the feeling we will do very well on this thread. Anyone else game????? I haven't figured out what the winner gets but I am sure we can come up with lots of cool prizes. We can offer the losers a parting gift of ketchup (Heinze-makes the glass more palatable).:evilgrin:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/26/magazines/fortune/citishelter.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007102905

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_marc_mcd_071029_why_are_free_market_.htm

They've been shown to be wrong time and time again. And their policies have led to widespread disaster and misery for millions of people.

Who am I talking about?

The NeoCons and their wrong-headed views on Iraq?

Nope, I'm talking about free-market economists.

No group of "experts" has a worse track record on accurate information about how our world really works. And yet, mysteriously, free-market economists are still held in reverence and awe by many. And their proclamations are hailed as the gospel truth by everyone from politicians to academia to the mainstream media.

Free-market economics seemingly got an enormous boost in credibility in the 1980s and has reigned supreme as the only conceivable policy for running America's economy ever since.

There's only one problem with free-market economists and their followers: they're full of crap and they have a dismal track record on the truth. And worse, the world simply doesn't operate the way they believe it does.

/continues...

Same shit, different day.

Fed likely to cut rates despite stellar growth
Job growth seen maintaining tepid pace of about 80,000 in October
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-likely-cut-rates-despite/story.aspx?guid=%7BDC32DE3B%2D5422%2D4E95%2D942B%2D25424905264E%7D



:banghead:

:wtf:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_dwarf

"Brown dwarfs are sub-stellar objects with a mass below that necessary to maintain hydrogen-burning nuclear fusion reactions in their cores, as do stars on the main sequence, but which have fully convective surfaces and interiors, with no chemical differentiation by depth. Brown dwarfs occupy the mass range between that of large gas giant planets and the lowest mass stars; this upper limit is between 75<1> and 80 Jupiter masses (MJ). Currently there is some debate as to what criterion to use to define the separation between a brown dwarf from a giant planet at very low brown dwarf masses (~13 MJ ), and whether brown dwarfs are required to have experienced fusion at some point in their history. In any event, brown dwarfs heavier than 13 MJ do fuse deuterium and those above ~65 MJ also fuse lithium. The only planet known to orbit a brown dwarf is 2M1207b."

:rofl:

does it involve a doorbell, a paper bag, and a lit match?

You guessed it.


;)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3653390&mesg_id=3657613

Notice Conrad's statement: EVERYTHING IS ON THE TABLE
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3653390&mesg_id=3657616

so long as there is a GOP and his corporate crony that thinks they can swindle you out of the money. It needs to be in a lock box with pit bulls around it.

for pointing up the 'bipartisan' nature, but just because someone has a D beside their name doesn't make them Democrats. Just because I dance around the house in my under ware doesn't make me Madonna.

according to Conrad's proposal.

How convenient! Just after the election....

like I'm stupid.....:eyes:

That was a standard comeback line when I would hear Madonna sing....Like a Virgin (I always sing back.....like I'm stupid-yeah I really believe that line).

One of the things that happens as you get older and post menopausal is that you develop thicker skin. I get worked up over the important things like kids going to bed hungry or dieing before their time because of something preventable, women that are abused, innocent people jailed, white collar bandits that get away their crimes....I get upset over that. The rest is small potatoes.
:toast:

I sure could use the protection....

then you don't give a rat's ass what people think anymore. You've raised your kids and what society says and dictates is meaningless. Your body is finally your own. You have seen and done more than most of those in 'authority' over you and they know it and you know it. You have what they can't have, a natural authority that comes with life's wisdom. The most power force in this country is women in their 50's-80's. IMHO

to defend it and apply their "gentle" treatments anyone that get near the "box".

:sarcasm:

...mind's eye sees NeoCons dancing about, coated with tar and feathers, being poked in butt by pissed-off, pitchfork-wielding peasants...

The dollar seems to be tacked up too high and doesn't reflect the right face on the bill very well, no?

to Bill Cristol!

Humana stock leaps as profit soars; forecasts lifted

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/humana-stock-leaps-profit-soars/story.aspx?guid=%7BCDD98DD7%2D4618%2D4764%2D9A3D%2DF96C11CBF18F%7D&dist=hplatest



Good thing that the "free markets" are thinking of welfare of the nation instead of profits.

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-09-26 Wednesday, September 26 0.99552 USD
2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD
2007-09-28 Friday, September 28 1.00412 USD
2007-10-01 Monday, October 1 1.00715 USD
2007-10-02 Tuesday, October 2 0.9998 USD
2007-10-03 Wednesday, October 3 1.00392 USD
2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD
2007-10-11 Thursday, October 11 1.02627 USD
2007-10-12 Friday, October 12 1.02701 USD
2007-10-15 Monday, October 15 1.02501 USD
2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market         Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0424 1.0477 1.0406 1.0477 +0.0083 +0.80% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0433 1.0485 1.0387 1.0471 +0.0076 +0.73% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0453 1.0478 1.0453 1.0478 +0.0085 +0.82% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0283 1.0283 1.0247 1.0390 +0.0044 +0.42% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0399 1.0399 1.0399 1.0386 +0.0044 +0.42% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0468 1.0468 1.0468 1.0468 +0.0091 +0.88% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0055 1.0060 1.0050 1.0368 +0.0044 +0.42% 

Other combinations:

AU.Z07 AUSTRALIAN $/US$ Dec (NYBOT)          0.91450 +0.00995 
HY.Z07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Dec (NYBOT) 117.99    +0.79 
GB.Z07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Dec (NYBOT)        0.7005  -0.0027 
EP.Z07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Dec (NYBOT)           1.38525 +0.00035 
EJ.Z07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT)       164.42    +0.96 
EU.Z07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT)          1.41005 -0.00560 

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally above the 10- day moving average crossing at 1.0283 and is again trading into uncharted territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Upside targets are hard to project as December extends this fall's rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0234 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0442. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0312. Second support is the 20-day moving average at crossing at 1.0235.

Analysis

I swore I was not going to post today. I don't have time but who can resist. On look at the graph and it's broken through x/y. Morning Canadian news highlight was a 6-year-old kid rescued from a plane crash (grandpa died :cry:) which means Something Bad must have happened to the greenback, probably everybody and their dog realizing it isn't worth the paper it's printed on and that no rate cut is going to make it otherwise.

Wanna stock tip? Invest in wheelbarrows. You're going to be needing them.

A little bird (ino.com) told me I'd better sneak a peak.

The December Canadian dollar closed up 100 points at 1.0495
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit
another fresh contract high. Bulls have the solid upside
technical advantage and gained more power today.

Yup.

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0424 1.0502 1.0406 1.0495 +0.0101 +0.97% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0433 1.0512 1.0387 1.0495 +0.0100 +0.96% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0453 1.0500 1.0453 1.0493 +0.0100 +0.96% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0283 1.0283 1.0247 1.0491 +0.0101 +0.97% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0399 1.0399 1.0399 1.0488 +0.0102 +0.98% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0468 1.0500 1.0468 1.0483 +0.0106 +1.02% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0055 1.0060 1.0050 1.0478 +0.0110 +1.06% 

I called this two weeks ago. In fact it's a day or two early.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IJ30Dj01.html
The sole inflation creator
By The Mogambo Guru

I thought it was significant that the Conference Board's (1) latest release of their US indexes of Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators showed that the Leading Indicator (forecasting business activity 6-12 months down the road) rose 0.4, to 137.9 from a revised 137.5. Not much of a future!

The Coincident Indicator of current conditions was up 0.2, to 105.0 from a revised 124.8. And even less of a present!

The truly horrible news is just what I have been screaming about



these many, many months and years, in that the Lagging Indicator reveals inflation and burdens, and it was, again, up the most, rising 0.6, taking the indicator to 129.9 from a revised 129.3.

Inflation in prices is going to kill us, thanks to the despicable Federal Reserve creating so much money and credit, thanks to the despicable Congress (except Ron Paul) who aided and abetted the Fed in this monetary inflation because they love to deficit-spend money, and thus they need this creation of excess money and credit, and thanks to the traitorous Supreme Court, which has since 1933 consciously and deliberately chosen to ignore the part of the Constitution where it says that money shall only be of silver and gold, and that no state will ever make anything a legal tender other than silver or gold, and thus the Supreme Court let the government let the Fed create excess money and credit, which will make prices rise, which destroys the economy and the lives of everyone.

more at link

Dow 13,870.26 63.56 (0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,817.44 13.25 (0.47%)
S&P 500 1,540.98 5.70 (0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.383% 0.006

NYSE Volume 3,133,892,750
Nasdaq Volume 2,097,272,000

4:25 pm : The dollar was weak and oil prices were up on Monday. Those developments might lead one to assume that the stock market went down. That assumption, though, would be wrong. The equity market basically picked up where it left off last week and traded higher in the face of these seemingly negative developments.

Regular readers of Briefing.com know that we don't put much stock in the weak dollar-weak stock market argument. In fact, we have argued that a moderate downtrend in the dollar is bullish for the stock market since it boosts the earnings of multinational companies and makes U.S. exports more competitive.

Granted the weak dollar is contributing to the rise in oil prices, but thus far, the consumer has been pretty impervious to the high prices thanks to rising personal incomes that are a byproduct of a tight labor market.

There are lingering concerns, of course, that rising oil prices will soon undercut the consumer given the housing sector recession, but those concerns were tabled on Monday as the stock market extended recent gains with oil prices topping $93 per barrel.

The latest move in oil (+1.8% to $93.53) followed news that Mexico shut down a fifth of its production (600k barrels per day) due to bad weather in the Gulf of Mexico.

Not surprisingly, the energy sector (+0.7%) was a relative strength leader today. The transports, on the other hand, trailed the action in noticeable fashion, but strikingly, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.3%) managed a gain on Monday thanks to many retailers and homebuilding stocks.

The resilient showing by the equity market can be attributed in part to the market's optimism that the FOMC will cut interest rates again at this week's meeting so as to prevent a recession from occurring. Briefing.com sides with the expectation that the fed funds rate will be cut by 25 basis points on Wednesday to 4.50%.

Despite the rate cut hopes, the financial sector (-0.1%) was a laggard in Monday's trade. Weakness in the thrifts & mortgage (-2.8%) industry group, though, was largely offset by strength in the investment banking group (+2.6%). Merrill Lynch (MER 67.42, +1.33) was a standout again as investors rallied around reports that CEO Stanley O'Neal may be on his way out.

The materials sector (+1.2%) was Monday's best-performing area as the decline in the dollar index (-0.3% to 76.84) continued to prop up stocks of companies that benefit from increased commodity prices/demand.

Separately, Dow component Verizon (VZ 45.99, +0.39) reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings that lent added support to the broader market. Cereal maker Kellogg (K 53.11, -1.33), on the other hand, weighed on the proceedings following an FY08 earnings forecast that noted food cost inflation concerns and which was disappointing relative to the current consensus view.DJ30 +63.56 DJTA -0.5% NASDAQ +13.25 SP500 +5.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1475/1495/2.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1356/1891/1.18 bln

3:30 pm : Heading into the final half hour of the session, the major indices are holding on to their session gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a fresh intraday high since the last update.

Boeing's (BA 96.04, +0.02) Board of Directors have approved a new $7 billion share repurchase plan and declared a dividend of 35 cents a share.

After the close, 43 companies are confirmed to report their earnings.

Tomorrow, the Conference Board will report the October Consumer Confidence at 10:00 ET. DJ30 +85.27 NASDAQ +13.19 SP500 +7.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1489/1453/1.62 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1431/1790/885 mln