STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 7

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 7, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 441 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2486 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2208 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2169
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 6, 2007

Dow... 13,660.94 +117.54 (+0.87%)
Nasdaq... 2,825.18 +30.00 (+1.07%)
S&P 500... 1,520.27 +18.10 (+1.20%)
Gold future... 823.80 +13.00 (+1.58%)
30-Year Bond 4.65% +0.04 (+0.78%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.36% +0.04 (+0.90%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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Read more: du

Good Morning Oz...I was up early...


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3057189:donut:

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I overslept - up late with my sick child. It looks like I'll be taking the day off from work to update more regularly.

:hi:

:hi:

:hi:

BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

The news from the Financial Sector continues to deteriorate as CDO, CDS, ABS, and other areas of Structured Finance continue to experience an ongoing credit meltdown. Amazingly, the stock market averages continue to remain buoyant even as one financial company after another experiences huge losses with devastating write-downs of equity. A little tour of the Banking/Financial Sector shown at the end of this article, (see “A Nightmare on Wall Street”) shows share price after share price imploding before our very eyes; and yet, the stock market remains buoyant. It is almost surreal to see the Housing Implosion assaulting key and very major elements of the US Economy while at the same time the stock market as a whole is gliding along in disconnect mode. To be sure there have been the occasional ‘bad days’ in the stock market, particularly as some of the more gross excesses have leaked out from the Wall Street Sewers. Yet, still in all, with today’s close of 1515, the S&P 500 resides a mere 3% below its all time closing high. Only 3% below the all time high and Banks like Citicorp have seen their stock prices ripped asunder. Who would have imagined resilience on such a grand scale?

Of course, it is always possible that the stock market game is only in Act I. Only the fullness of time will tell the tale. For our part, we thought we'd dedicate this week’s WrapUp to a little Waltz through the major averages in an attempt to draw the proverbial line in the sand between “Good” behavior and “Bad” behavior. Call it the Owner's Manual or User's Guide to the Stock Market 101. -cut-

In the next chart shown above, we move through the S&P Index and ask the question, ‘what percentage of the 500 stocks are above the 200 day average.” Because even the most gradual uptrend, which will over time lift a stock above the 200 day average we are really asking, what percentage of the stocks in this index are trending higher. Here again, we see grievous news in that at the mid-September all time high, less than 50% of the index was actually above the 200 day average. In recent weeks after the bounce, deterioration has once again begun with less than 40% of the S&P now holding an uptrend. These are not encouraging signs, and in fact, are the signature of major trend reversals. Novice investors often wonder how a market trend moved from up to down and sometimes don’t realize that the primary trend of a market has turned down until they are hit right between the eyes with a major series of down days. Importantly, this need not ever be the case, as markets are like Ocean Liners; they turn slowly from up to down, with what is known as a topping process. This can often take months, but as a market is building a top, the indices are often held up by a slimmer and slimmer list of issues doing all the heavy lifting. To those who have seen numerous market TURNS before, this internal deterioration is always a strong warning to keep a close watch on the basic trend.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q3
Briefing Forecast 2.7%
Market Expects 3.1%
Prior 2.6%

10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/02
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -3894K

3:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep
Briefing Forecast $14.0B
Market Expects $8.5B
Prior $12.2B

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/productivity-rises-49-fastest-pace/story.aspx?guid=%7B8C7148CA%2D9BF4%2D491D%2DB8FB%2DA69F413860C4%7D




I swear, every time in the last few months that it looks like there will be total meltdown in the markets, some economic indicator comes out smelling like 3 dozen fresh roses.

With all the layoffs lately and details from job reports that more jobs are in lower-paying positions (which would explain the lower labor costs), just how is output rising so much faster? What is the output being gauged (and did that calculation change of late)?

Like this gem on how GREAT this is for all these small American companies:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/06/smbusiness/falling_dollar.fsb/index.htm?postversion=2007110712

How to profit from the falling dollar:

http://www.moneymorning.com/eleven-ways-to-profit-from-the-falling-us-dollar/

How to profit from the falling dollar (with no downside):

http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2007/nov/2007_nov_06.asp

Falling dollar a blessing in disguise (on edit: this is actually from England and spot on, sorry):

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/bill_emmott/2007/10/falling_dollar_a_blessing_in_d.html


All complete BUNK to stop people from panicking and cover for B*sh. No business news editors are writing factual articles about this, none.

23. U.S. 2Q nonfinancial productivity revised up to 3.8%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 1 hour ago

24. U.S. nonfarm unit labor costs up 4.3% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 1 hour ago

25. U.S. nonfarm productivity up 2.4% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 1 hour ago

26. U.S. 2Q productivity revised lower to 2.2%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 1 hour ago

27. U.S. 3Q unit labor costs fall 0.2%, lowest in a year
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 1 hour ago

28. U.S. 3Q nonfarm productivity up 4.9%, best in four years
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 1 hour ago

43. U.S. Sept. wholesale sales up 1.3%, inventories up 0.8%
10:00 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 3 hours ago

44. U.S. Sept. wholesale inventory-sales ratio falls to 1.10
10:00 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 3 hours ago

45. U.S. Sept. wholesale inventories leanest ever
10:00 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 3 hours ago

37. Gasoline supplies down 800K barrels in latest week:Energy D.
10:36 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 2 hours ago

38. Distillate supplies up 100K in latest week: Energy Dept.
10:36 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 2 hours ago

39. Crude supplies down 800K barrels in latest week -Energy Dept
10:34 AM ET, Nov 07, 2007 - 2 hours ago

I do believe the consumer has died

Nov 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep $3.7B $14.0B $8.5B $15.4B $12.2B

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices jumped above $98 a barrel Wednesday, a new record, amid expectations of declining U.S. supplies. The falling dollar and OPEC's apparent reluctance to pump more crude into the market also boosted prices.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery surge $1.25 to $97.95 a barrel by midday in Europe after earlier reaching as high as a record $98.62 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract hit a high of $97.10 Tuesday before closing at $96.70 a barrel, a record settlement 66 percent higher than the close on the first trading day of the year.

-cut-

Figures to be released later Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration are expected to show crude supplies dropped last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires predict, on average, that crude oil inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels.

"The price rise is really driven by expectations of drawdowns in crude oil and distillate stocks inventories in the U.S. inventory report," said Shum. "Some cold weather reports out of the U.S. and Europe serve as a reminder that winter is coming and that there are still supply concerns."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

:donut: and lurkers. The sleeping giant has wakened. This morning, on our little local morning news show-they did a news story on the high price of gas. Not this is a town that thrives on higher gas prices due to the number of refineries here. This story talked about the ripple effects that we would experience. It was rotated 4 times in the hour. It was different than the usual morning fare because it was actually sobering. Now I figure, if it is on the air it is way past being 'new' news. Seldom are these folks ahead of any story so this is in folks conscious already.

I also think most folks are awakening to the fact that these Fed Interest rate cuts don't help them at all-they only help those investors on WS. There was a time when the events that occurred on WS actually reflected MS. Now, Wall street is no more reflective of the Main Street economy than a fun house mirror is reflective of your features.

As this disconnect gap becomes wider, the Fed measures will have less and less of the desired effect. It is not investors that run Wall Street, it is the consumers. Until the consumer benefits-there will be no recovery. And this economy will not correct it's self until we are in sync again with Wall Street.

How can we make the best decisions it the data we have is flawed? Only when WS accurately reelects the events on Main St. will we have a chance to once again thrive. And despite the government, feds, and slick con men investors attempts to disguise this anemic economy, it is beginning to flail. The only folks that seem unaware are the investors and feds, and the government. As I said before-the sleeping giant has awakened.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

VILLAHERMOSA, MEXICO — Although onshore oil fields in and around flood-ravaged Tabasco state escaped major damage, some of the people working at those wells have been left in the lurch.

Many oil workers are based in the flooded state capital of Villahermosa and have lost their homes. Meanwhile, flooded streets and washed-out roads make getting to and from the oil fields a logistical nightmare.

"It slows down our operations considerably," said Mark Ingram, a native of Livingston in East Texas who works for an oil-services company and has lived in Villahermosa since April.

"It takes all day to get to one rig," said Ingram, who was flooded out of his home and has taken up residence in one of the city's hotels on higher ground.

<snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5279858.html

The flooding is awful. Folks are stuck on roof tops-but at least their government is drooping food and water to them:sarcasm:

Edited to add that Mexico sent helicopters troops and supplies during Katrina.

The gold moon shot in process:

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C7

Silver is finally doing what silver should … showing some serious oomph. The silver open interest went up 4,227 to 145,858, which is at least a 28-year high. One of these coming days we will get our $1 to $3 up day. Silver on the move:

December silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C7

With today’s move, silver is technically SUPER BULLISH, as it has broken out, trading to the upside after an extensive consolidation period. Look at the monthly chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/M

-END-

Crude oil finished the day up $2.72 to $96.70 per barrel.

On CNBC they said $101 oil would put it at an inflation adjusted all-time high. Gold needs to take out $2200 (minimum) to do the same. That is how much The Gold Cartel has suppressed the price all these years. Gold will take out $2200 and probably double that price.

The dollar fell another .37 to 76.02. The euro gained .77 to 145.53.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Metals - Gold sets fresh high on inflation fears, weak dollar, safe-haven buying

November 06, 2007: 12:18 PM EST

LONDON, Nov. 6, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Gold surged to a 28-year high of 824.50 usd, just 3 pct lower than its record peak, as high oil prices sparked inflation jitters.

A weak dollar, which hit a series of lows against the euro today, also lent support because it made commodities denominated in the greenback cheaper for those trading in other currencies…

-END-

Then how on earth does the DOW rise 118 to 13,861 and the DOG gain 30 to 2825, while the yield on the 10-yr T note is not far from its lows at 4.37%? This is how …

It is truly mindboggling what the Working Group on Financial Markets, Exchange Stabilization Fund, Counterparty Risk Management Group, and Gold Cartel are doing to the US stock market, gold market and interest rate scene.

Clearly they are in a state of panic behind the scenes and, while losing control of the gold price, have their entire PPT ARMY propping up the market to counteract what gold is doing. Gold is the barometer of how well Wall Street is doing in many ways. So, to keep the investing public and US consumer further in the dark about how bad things really are, they move the DOW up.

The money they must be throwing into the US financial market system has to be staggering … to make sure …

"Everything is fine"…

Yet, in addition to the disappearing dollar, and soaring gold/oil prices, the news is horrendous and worsening:

BEAZER 4Q NET NEW HOME ORDERS FALL 53% TO 973

BEAZER SUSPENDS QUARTERLY DIVIDEND OF 10C

IndyMac Reports $202.7 Million Loss on Late Payments

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the second- largest independent U.S. mortgage lender, reported a loss five times bigger than the company forecast in September as foreclosures and late payments rose to a record.

IndyMac cut its dividend in half, eliminated more than 1,500 jobs and increased reserves for bad loans by 47 percent to help weather the worst housing slump in 16 years. The loss of $202.7 million, or $2.77 a share, compares with the 50-cents-a-share forecast the Pasadena, California-based company made on Sept. 7.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV0m3MR6afXs&refer=home

-END-

Fitch may cut Countrywide, changes bank outlooks

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said it may cut its rating on Countrywide Financial Corp and also revised its outlook on several banks, including changing Washington Mutual Inc's outlook to "negative" from "stable," citing a challenging market environment.

Fitch previously had Countrywide on rating watch "evolving" meaning the rating could be raised, lowered or left unchanged. Countrywide is rated "BBB-plus," the third-lowest investment grade. WaMu is rated "A," the sixth-highest ranking. A negative outlook indicates a rating cut is likely over the next one to two years.
(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by James Dalgleish)

-END-

More great financial market news:

Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt

By Sean O’Grady, Economics Editor
Published: 06 November 2007
A new phase in the credit crunch, one of "$1 trillion losses" seems to be dawning. The crisis at Citigroup and renewed doubts about some of the world’s leading banks disquieted stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, with the fractious mood set to continue.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3132507.ece

-END-

REUTERS 3-MONTH DOLLAR LIBOR RISE THE BIGGEST ONE-DAY INCREASE SINCE SEPT 27

REUTERS BBA LIBOR 3-MONTH DOLLAR RATES FIXED UP AT 4.89750 PCT VS 4.87500 PCT MONDAY

REUTERS BBA LIBOR 3-MONTH STERLING RATES FIXED AT 6.2800 PCT VS 6.28125 PCT MONDAY

REUTERS BBA LIBOR 3-MONTH EURO RATES FIXED AT 4.58563 PCT, LOWEST SINCE AUG 16

REUTERS DOLLAR INDEX DROPS BELOW 76.0 TO RECORD LOW AMID BROAD GREENBACK DECLINE

REUTERS DOLLAR EXTENDS LOSSES, PUSHING EURO TO ALL-TIME HIGH ABOVE $1.4565

0:28 Options frenzy exacerbating oil surge - FT
The FT reports that heavy investor interest in oil call options is contributing to the surge in crude as the banks that sell the options have to to hedge their exposure by buying oil in the spot market. According to the paper, the options frenzy is evidenced by the fact that open interest in Nymex December 2010 call options at $100 a barrel rose to 24,903 contracts on Monday, double the level at the start ofthe year, while open interest at $120, $160 and even $250 a barrel has also surged, albeit from significantly lower levels.
Reference Link (subscription required)
* * * * *

The US economic news stinks all the way around:

21:28 Banks tightening lending standards - WSJ
Citing the Federal Reserve's latest senior loan officer survey, the Journalr eports that more banks are tightening lending standards for home buyers, even those with good credit. Roughly 40% of the banks said they tightened terms for prime borrowers in the prior three months, up 15% from the previous survey in July. In addition, about 60% of banks saidthat they tightened standards on home mortgages classified as "nontraditional," up from 40% in the July survey. The paper adds that the survey also found that banks are raising borrowing costs for larger businesses, as 20% of domestic banks said they tightened standards on loans to large and medium-size firms, up from about 10% in the prior survey.

* * * * *

Hmmm…

U.S. Fed banks to hike fees, cut electronic charges

WASHINGTON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it was raising overall fees for priced services to banks by about 3 percent in 2008, increasing charges for paper check processing but cutting them for electronic payment services.

The Fed said in a statement that Federal Reserve Banks project they will recover 101.1 percent of their priced services costs in 2008 and achieve full cost recovery for the fourth consecutive year. This compares to an estimated 2007 cost recovery of 101.5 percent and a 2006 recovery of 108.8 percent.

The Reserve Banks plan to raise check service fees by 5 percent while cutting fees by 8 percent for electronic payment services…

-END-




http://news.goldseek.com/LemetropoleCafe/1194451380.php

This is exactly the manipulation that others, like specimenfred1984 and FinancialSense columnists, have mentioned. The honest S&P traders must be going nuts. When you have the PPT machine propping up the markets (starting with select S&P items) no one can compete with that.

There should be laws against all this manipulation

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2007/1102.html

"On another note, others talk about the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), which allegedly comes into the market and buys futures to “control” the market. This is something that I can’t prove or disprove. Therefore, to form an opinion about any manipulative efforts of this degree would not be based on fact. Furthermore, I will argue that if it does exist, it will not matter in the long run as all manipulative efforts ultimately do fail."

Or, let the guy remain a dumbed-down tool, that's what I choose to do with people who blatantly call me and every other informed person a liar.



BTW, great post!

DETROIT - General Motors Corp. is taking a big hit on the bottom line of its third-quarter earnings report after the automaker said it will post a $39 billion noncash charge because of negative changes in its cumulative loss over the last three years.

Because of developments in the third quarter, GM said, accounting standards require the company to establish a valuation allowance that wipes out $39 billion in deferred tax assets.

The deferred tax assets could have been used to offset taxes on future profits, but the valuation allowance indicates it is less likely the company will realize such a benefit.

The charge means GM will report a huge net loss when it releases its earnings Wednesday morning, an industry analyst said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071107/ap_on_bi_ge/gm_charge

"After cumulatively defrauded investors over the last three years...
GM said, accounting standards require the company to establish a
devaluation allowance that wipes out $39 billion (with "B") in assets.

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Bleak warnings of more pain to come in the credit sphere snowballed on Tuesday and fears of subprime losses yet to be unearthed rattled money markets.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said it would take months for banks to reveal their full losses stemming from risky mortgages and former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said the housing debacle was a major risk to the U.S. economy.

Red ink flowed as IndyMac Bancorp Inc (IMB.N), one of the largest independent U.S. mortgage lenders, posted a third-quarter net loss of $202.7 million due to mounting delinquencies and a collapse in investor demand to buy its home loans.

The loss was five times larger than it had projected, giving life to investor fears of more skeletons in the financial sector's closet. Emblematic of the market's mood, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) had to deny swirling rumors that it may need to write down mortgage-related losses.

-cut-

BALANCE-SHEET SHOCK

As fears rise of more balance-sheet shock, economists worry that the deteriorating value of the mortgage debt and derivatives banks hold will choke off the traditional lending they do to the rest of the economy, dragging down growth.

Giving credence to these fears, billionaire investor George Soros forecast on Monday that the U.S. economy is "on the verge of a very serious economic correction" after decades of overspending.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071106/bs_nm/economy_credit_dc

---

Channeling CNBC: Good news everyone! Goldman Sachs will not admit to any losses! I smell another rate cut to help those impoverished hedge fund managers.

From the WSJ:
Notice that gas prices are usually seasonal, rising in the summer as demand picks up and dropping in the fall as demand falls. However, thanks to record high oil prices, that pattern isn't occurring this year (at least so far). As a result:
A few points need mentioning.

1.) Oil prices are extremely volatile right now. One of the primary reasons for oil's increase is the situation along Northern Iraq with Turkey. If this situation resolves peaceably then a large stimulus for oil's increase will be gone and traders will probably take profits. In other words, oil's price increase is extremely fluid.

2.) Counting out the US consumer is a very bad idea. Americans love to shop and usually find a way to do so, regardless of how. So don't bet against them yet.

-cut-

Retailers are concerned enough to start lowering prices and offering incentives. And traders are selling department store shares, indicating they are concerned enough to drop retail positions.

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2007/11/gas-prices-and-holiday-spending.html

Storm hitting Mexico
Turkey/Kurdish tensions
North Sea evacuation



And, what other factors?

US dollar dropping like the Titanic causing us to pay more for a barrel of imported oil.

Oil, being traded as a speculative commodity, is now replacing the US dollar as a source of investment and being driven up due to hedge funds looking for something to put money into as the credit crisis worsens.




Anything else?

just like the dot-com bust - shelter is hard to find because it's price. So quality equities will be sold off at a loss to cover even greater losses. Just like some retailers will sell clearance merchandise at a loss: they just want to get some of their money back in liquid form.

We know who owns us.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21659518

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKSP27603720071107?rpc=44

BEIJING, Nov 7 (Reuters) - China delivered a one-two punch to the dollar as a top lawmaker suggested a bigger role for the euro in its $1.43 trillion hoard of foreign reserves and a central banker said the dollar is losing its global currency status.

The euro hit a record high above $1.47 following remarks on Wednesday by Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the standing committee of the National People's Congress, China's parliament, pointing to diversification of the country's reserves.

"In terms of the structure of our foreign exchange reserves, we should take advantage of the appreciation of strong currencies to offset the depreciation of weak currencies," Cheng told a financial forum.

"For example, in the current foreign reserves structure, I mean the bonds we bought, the euro is appreciating against the yuan while the U.S. dollar is depreciating against the yuan. So we should make a balance between the two," Cheng said.

Cheng's position gives him influence in Beijing, where he holds a rank equivalent to vice premier. However, he does not have real authority over financial matters and has been known to speak on a range of subjects, from the stock market to foreign acquisitions, on which he does not control policy.

...

Cheng said that China would not bow to foreign pressure to let the yuan rise much faster.

He cited the example of the 1985 Plaza Accord, which engineered a sharp rise in the yen. Cheng said this ushered in a decade of deflation in Japan, showing that the search for international currency compromises may bring unwanted results.

"Therefore, the exchange rate issue is a sovereign issue, and we must consider it mainly from our own point of view," he said.

/...

They'll probably be able to unload U.S. treasuries at a significant discount.

The commercial paper would be more difficult.

If they have CDOs (otherwise known as junk bond mortgages), they might as well just write them off now.

As I understand it, one of the big investment banks tried to auction off some of this TP, but stopped the auction when they couldn't even get 30 cents on the dollar.

Maybe they're pissed because we keep warning people about their dangerous products.

Do they want an apology from the FTC like they got out of Mattel?

S&P 500 futures fell 20.8 points at 1,504.20 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 23.25 points at 2,210.75. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 178 points.


Are we going to see curbs right out of the gate?

this clip was from the news cluster - but it is missing from the article

1 hour ago - Stock index futures fell around 1 percent before Wall Street's opening on Wednesday, putting U.S. shares on course to reverse the previous session's gains, with eyes on tech bellwether Cisco and economic data. "The rally we saw yesterday was just a fake," said Heino Ruland, analyst at FrankfurtFinanz. The falling dollar and the rising oil price did not justify an ongoing rally, he said. At 5:40 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones future was down 1 percent, the S&P 500 future was 1.1 percent lower and the Nasdaq future ...

news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071107/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc - - Yahoo! News, Reuters

:shrug:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071107/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures plunged on Wednesday after General Motors Corp (GM.N) posted its biggest quarterly loss ever, oil prices surged above $98 and the dollar hit a record low, cutting investors appetite for riskier assets.

The news that GM had a net loss of $39 billion, or $68.85 per share, reflecting a $39 billion charge for unclaimed tax credits and a loss related to GMAC, sent GM shares and stock index futures tumbling.

Shares of GM, the largest U.S. automaker and a component of the Dow industrials, fell 7 percent to $33.60 before the opening bell.

"There's fear in the market about oil, the weaker dollar, and credit concerns. Add on top of that the worries about the consumer, and it looks like it's going to be difficult for companies to come up with their earnings numbers," said Andre Bakhos, president of Princeton Financial Group in Princeton, New Jersey.

"GM is also not helping. Any time the word write-off is tossed around, whether it be from GM, banks or brokers, investors get worried."

...more...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.365 Change -0.649 (-0.85%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 75.999

Previous Close 76.014 High 76.020

Low 75.210 2007-11-07 07:30:11, 30 min delay

52wk High 85.7 52wk High Date 2006-11-17

52wk Low 75.986 52wk Low Date 2007-11-06

Dollar in a Free Fall As Chinese Hint at Diversification

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar_in_a_Free_Fall_1194432421553.html

The dollar collapsed completely tonight in Asian and early European trade after Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress stated that China should invest its nearly $1.5 Trillion of FX reserves in stronger currencies. The FX market instantly interpreted the remarks as a sign that the Chinese will begin diversifying their currency assets away from the greenback and as a result the dollar reached record lows against the euro, hitting 1.4705 in morning London trade. It fell materially against the pound as well taking out the 2.10 level.

Although, Mr. Siwei has a history of making broad economic comments that often do not reflect actual policy, and although the National People’s Congress is not involved in directly setting currency targets, today reaction speaks volumes about the extent of anti-dollar sentiment present in the FX market right now. The price action in the dollar is uniformly bearish, as currency traders fear that the problems in housing and finance sectors will drag the US economy into a recession in 2008, while the rest of the world will continue to expand and perhaps even tighten its monetary regimes.

Today the markets saw more evidence of that decoupling thesis as Reserve Bank of Australia raised its overnight rate to 6.75% despite the fact that the country is facing a Federal election at the end of the month. Governor Stevens noted that inflation has exceeded the central bank’s target and decided to act expeditiously. suggesting that further hikes may be in the offing. It is precisely this type of stark difference between the easing monetary policy of the Fed and the continued hawkish posture of US’ s major trading partners that has helped to produce the current round of dollar weakness.

Tomorrow all eyes will focus on the ECB press conference with President Trichet facing a very tough decision. Given their recent rhetoric European monetary authorities clearly want to raise rates by 25bp before year end, as inflation in EZ exceeds the ECB self imposed target of 2%. However, with EURUSD already trading at 1.4700 Mr. Trichet risks the possibility of pushing the pair to 1.5000 should he hint at a December hike. That in turn is likely to elicit howls of protest from EZ finance ministers who fear that the current currency regime will undermine the region’s economic recovery. If Mr. Trichet balks and holds rates steady, the EURUSD may finally embark on long overdue correction.

...more...

Forex News: Euro Hits Fresh Record Of 1.4704 Amidst Diversification Talk

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/top_fx_market_movers/Forex_News__1194434714109.html



• AUDUSD – The Aussie hit fresh 23-year highs as the RBA raised rates by 25bp to 6.75 percent, as expected, and remained hawkish in their policy statement citing upside inflation risks from robust global and domestic demand.
• GBPUSD – UK consumer confidence, as measured by Nationwide Building Society, dwindled in October with the firm’s index of sentiment falling to 98 from 99.
• USDJPY – A Chinese advisor said that the government "will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly," suggesting that China will actively diversify its $1.4 trillion in FX reserves away from US dollars.
• EURUSD – German industrial production was surprisingly strong during September, as production rose 0.3 percent from the month prior led by energy, capital goods, and construction output.

...more...

And its spiral ever lower is accelerating.

-see FT chart-

The impetus for this morning's fall was comments overnight indicating that China might further diversify its reserves away from the US dollar.

It didn't help that supermodel Gisele Bündchen now refuses to be paid in dollars!

-cut-

It is difficult to express just how serious this is for global financial markets built on leverage, deregulation, accounting tricks, ill-transparent pricing and massive infusions of central bank liquidity.

I am advising central bankers next week on strengthening their preparedness. I will be telling them to abandon any focus on capital adequacy requirements. It's far too late for that to have any effect on the fall out. They should focus instead on reviewing and modernising their bankruptcy laws, enabling transfer of customer accounts and nominee assets from failing banks to healthy banks, providing for rapid auction of failed bank businesses and assets, and other practical measures for limiting loss, contagion and debilitating paralysis in the markets.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/11/7/6253/92569

The dollar hasn't dropped that far against the Yen, either.

Really its the European currencies and the Canadian dollar that are taking the hit, perhaps with some Latin American currencies.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/EUR_USD__ECB_To_Leave_Rates_1194428022160.html
NOV 8 ECB Rate Decision (12:45 GMT; 07:45 EST) ECB’s Trichet Speaks (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Expected: 4.00%
Previous: 4.00%

How Will The Markets React?

There is little doubt that the European Central Bank will leave rates steady at 4.00 percent this week, but there is uncertainty surrounding what ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will say during his monthly press conference following the rate announcement. During the October press conference, Trichet noted that “the outlook for price stability over the medium term is subject to upside risks” and that “the fundamentals of the euro area economy support a favorable medium-term outlook for economic activity.” However, Trichet also commented that caution must be “exercised when assessing any potential impact of the financial market developments on the real economy.” So has anything changed since October that will affect the ECB’s stance this time around? Trichet & Co. may have a hard time ignoring the surge in flash CPI estimates for October as the annualized rate rebounded to 2.6 percent from 2.1 percent in September. Trichet is known to be an ardent inflation hawk, but will it warrant “strong vigilance?” This phrase strikes a particularly strong note for central bank watchers as it has signaled an impending rate hike in the past. However, recent PMI figures for the manufacturing sector indicate that growth is slowing while both consumer and investor sentiment have turned more pessimistic, suggesting that the Euro-zone economy may be facing some road bumps. Furthermore, the financial markets have yet to fully recover, which may leave the ECB’s economic outlook uncertain. As a result, the ECB is likely to take a more firm stance on inflation risks but may not go as far as to cite the need for “strong vigilance,” which should leave the markets pricing in steady rates going into 2008.

...

FX – EUR/USD

Broad based weakness in the greenback has allowed EUR/USD to tear higher, with records being accomplished daily. Most recently, comments from a Chinese official suggesting that the government would diversify their $1.4 trillion in FX reserves away from US dollar sent EUR/USD spiking to 1.4704. There is little doubt that the climb of the EUR/USD is much more of a “US story”, but what about the Euro-zone. Economic conditions in the region remain relatively resilient, though the manufacturing sector has started to falter and sentiment amongst consumers and investors has soured. However, it is inflation that will get the European Central Bank’s attention on Thursday, when their next monetary policy decision is scheduled to be announced. The ECB is expected to leave rates steady at 4.00 percent, but markedly hawkish commentary by ECB President Trichet could spark even more gains for EUR/USD to target the 1.4750 level. On the other hand, if Trichet focuses more on the potential for an economic slowdown and the shaky financial markets, his comments could help EUR/USD ease back slightly.



/...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071107/bs_afp/stockseurope_071107121359;_ylt=ApLi6tzldIZ6Tw4nJd7UI_mmOrgF

LONDON (AFP) - Leading European exchanges reversed early gains and were in negative territory Wednesday in hectic trade as jittery dealers tried to digest record-breaking runs for oil and continued falls in the dollar.

Sentiment in Paris was additionally unsettled by rumors of an investment fund bankruptcy.

"There is fresh weakness in the dollar, a new record price for a barrel of oil ... and rumors of a fund failure," said a trader with a major European bank in Paris. "That has thrown cold water on hopes for a recovery and sparked the loss of some 100 points in an uncertain market," he said, adding that neither the name nor the location of the fund had been revealed.

"It's extremely fluid. All you have to say are the words 'fund' and 'failure' and everyone jumps."

After gaining ground in opening deals, the London FTSE 100 index was down 0.93 percent at 6,414.80 while the Paris CAC 40 shed 0.62 percent to reach 5,683.08 at mid-day. In Frankurt the Dax was off 0.52 percent at 7,786.74.

Traders were closely tracking developments on the oil market, where crude prices closed in on 100 dollars a barrel after striking fresh record highs on global supply concerns.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for December delivery, hit an historic peak of 98.62 dollars per barrel. It later stood at 98.00 dollars, up 1.30 dollars. In London, Brent North Sea crude for December delivery hit a record high of 95.19 dollars. It later stood at 94.52 dollars, up 1.26 dollars.

"The flood of speculative cash pouring into oil has resulted in a breach of 100 dollars a barrel (being) very much on the cards for today," said Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris.

/...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2007-11-07T185358Z_01_L07851900_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML

LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - European stocks were indicated at their lowest close in six weeks on Wednesday, weighed by worries around banks, the impact of a strong euro on exporters and inflation fears sparked by oil inching towards $100 a barrel.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares was 0.7 percent lower at 1,543.55 points.

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) experienced problems with data distribution, extending its closing auction to 1800 GMT, and prices at the time of writing were subject to change.

Airline stocks bore the brunt of oil <CLc1> hitting a record $98.62, with Lufthansa (LHAG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) falling 4.1 percent and British Airways (BAY.L: Quote, Profile , Research) tumbling 5 percent.

Banks, badly battered in recent months as a result of a credit crunch, were major losers. Commerzbank (CBKG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) fell 1.8 percent, Dexia (DEXI.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) 2.9 percent and Northern Rock (NRK.L: Quote, Profile , Research) slid 7.4 percent.

Retailer Next (NXT.L: Quote, Profile , Research) slid 6.7 percent after it painted an uncertain picture of its outlook, and stocks in the export-oriented auto industry also weighed, with BMW (BMWG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) falling 4 percent, Renault (RENA.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) 4.1 percent and Volkswagen (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) 1.7 percent.

Strong results from Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) lifted the French oil group by 4.7 percent. Other oil groups were mixed despite the buoyant oil price, with BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile , Research) down 1.5 percent and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile , Research) up 1 percent. Continued...

/...

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2007-11-07T115415Z_01_L0765136_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-6.XML
Wed Nov 7, 2007 11:54 AM GMT

LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Precious metals soared higher on Wednesday on a tumbling dollar and record-high oil, with gold trading near its all-time peak, platinum setting a record and silver touching its highest level in 27 years.

Buying also was spurred by uncertainty in the U.S. credit market and expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.

"There is a flood of money coming into gold at the moment. You can't really stand in the way. There are hundreds of things that are supporting the market," Jeremy East, global head of metals trading at Standard Chartered Bank, said.

"It's a one-way street at the moment. Strong oil prices, a weaker dollar, subprime issues and a rush into safe-haven -- everything is supporting," he said.

Spot gold <XAU=> hit a high of $845.40 an ounce, the highest since January 1980 when it was fixed in London at a record high of $850. It was quoted at $843.00/843.80 by 1132 GMT, against $820.90/821.70 late in New York on Tuesday.

Gold has surged more than 32 percent in three months and has doubled in less than three years.

...

Silver was catching up with gold, and rallied to its highest level since January 1981. Spot silver <XAG=> hit an intraday high of $16.19 ounce, before dipping to $16.00/16.05, still up from $15.37/15.42 in New York.

Platinum <XPT=> hit a record high of $1,484 an ounce to track gold's jump, before dipping to $1,476/1,479, higher than $1,473/1,477 in New York. Palladium <XPD=> rose to $379/382 an ounce from $375/379 in New York. It hit a high of $382 -- its highest since late April.

/...

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0752349220071107?rpc=44

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures trimmed early
gains but still finished more than 1 percent higher for the
second day in a row on Wednesday, targeting record highs on the
back of a pummeled dollar, soaring crude oil prices and
safe-haven buying due to a falling stock market.

In early electronic trade, silver futures breached $16 an
ounce and platinum contracts traded a hair below $1,500. Both
silver and platinum had reversed course after hitting contract
highs and closed lower on profit taking.

...

Most-active December gold (GCZ7: Quote, Profile, Research) on the COMEX division of
the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up $10.10 or 1.2
percent at $833.50 an ounce after hitting a contract high of
$848. The early session low was $824.80.

On a continued basis, spot-month COMEX gold futures hit a
record high of $875 on Jan. 21 in 1980.

Momentum was all to the upside, and the $850 record level
for spot gold was only psychological rather than technical so
breaking above it should not be too difficult, the dealer said.
"I don't think we will reach it today but it's definitely
plausible in the next few days."

At 2:15 p.m. (1915 GMT), spot bullion <XAU=> was quoted at
$833.00/833.80, compared with the Tuesday New York close at
$820.90/821.700. London bullion dealers fixed the afternoon
spot reference price at $834.50.

After adjusting for inflation, gold's record level of $850
in 1980 was equal to about $2,250 at current prices, according
to industry data. Gold surged then on high inflation linked to
strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the
effects of the Iranian revolution.

Andy Montano, a director at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in
Toronto, said that the record high euro was the driving factor
for gold's strength on Wednesday.

"You have the currency issues creating the interest and the
catalyst. And then also the interest by investors wanting to
buy gold" because of its price performance, Montano said.

/...

:eyes:

I apologize for the length, the blog is quite long. The comments are worth reading too. This is only a very small portion...


11/5/07 The bloodbath in credit and financial markets will continue and sharply worsen

snip

The reality is that most financial institutions – banks, commercial banks, pension funds, hedge funds – have barely started to recognize the lower “fair value” of their impaired securities. Valuation of illiquid assets is a most complex issue; but starting with the November 15th adoption of FASB 157 the leeway that financial institutions have used so far for creative accounting will be much more limited. Valuation of illiquid assets is a most technical issue. But new regulations will limit the ability of financial institutions to put “illiquid” asset in “level 3” securities, i.e. securities where the lack of market prices allows them to use dubious “valuation models” and “unobservable inputs” to value such assets. As suggested by a commentator (Bernard) of my recent blog many Wall Street firms are still playing the game of putting too many assets in the “level 3” bucket of mark-to-model to models that don’t make much sense.

much more...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/224871

Monday evening update:

Bernard - a contributor to the comments on this blog - has provided further insights and data on the "level 3" assets of some major US financial institutions. He says:

Look at the info Citigroup just filed with the SEC today: they have $135 BILLION in LEVEL 3 ASSETS.

I have a neat idea.

Why don't we take every single major financial institution out there and then divide their total Level 3 assets by their equity capital base and make comparisons?

This will give us a better idea as to which of them may really remain solvent at the end of the day. Shall we?

Let's have a look at Citigroup. Their equity base is $128 billion. Therefore, their Level 3 assets to equity ratio: 105%

How about Goldman Sachs? Level 3 assets are $72 billion, equity base is $39 billion. Their Level 3 assets to equity ratio is 185%.

Morgan Stanley: $88 billion in Level 3, equity base is $35 billion. Ratio: 251% (WOW!)


Bear Stearns: $20 billion in Level 3, equity base is $13 billion. Ratio: 154%

Lehman Brothers: $35 billion in Level 3, $22 billion in equity. Ratio: 159%

Merrill Lynch: $16 billion in Level 3, $42 billion in equity. Ratio: 38%

Here is the Level 3 assets to equity ratio summary:

Citigroup 105%

Goldman Sachs 185%


Morgan Stanley 251%


Bear Stearns 154%


Lehman Brothers 159%


Merrill Lynch 38%

This becomes very interesting now, doesn't it?

Looks to me like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are by far in the WORST situation among the investment banks.

And yet the media is focusing all of their attention on Merrill Lynch---which actually has by far THE LEAST EXPOSURE of all of them. What a joke.

As I said before, the media should stop diverting attention and trying to make this into a "Merrill-specific" problem.

All of the investment banks are in deep trouble. These numbers should make that extremely evident. The deception must be exposed.

Written by Bernard on 2007-11-05 11:33:55



Does anyone remember this Bernard Ber article that was posted by 54anickel in SMW last April 25, 2007...

Too much like 1929
The following commentary will describe the final sequence of events that will lead to the implosion of the global economy.

The idea that a foreign stock market could dictate what happens in the US stock market almost offends the American sense of national pride (so the event is casually dismissed as “market irrationality”). A word of advice: you better get used to it, as there is much more of that to come. The crash is coming.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2821967&mesg_id=2822086


Too much like 1929 by Bernard Ber
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/toomuch.html

:puke:

Sorry, but it makes me sick what those greedy bastards have done...
I hope they burn in Hell...

:puke:

cash from any available commodity. Like oil. $100/bbl oil will soon be a distant, pleasant memory. Why? It is a guaranteed return on investment.

Yeh, must be the reason oil is soaring. Somebody knows what's going to happen.

I better tune-up my bicycle.

9:31
Dow 13,553.07 Down 107.87 (0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,799.03 Down 26.15 (0.93%)
S&P 500 1,509.68 Down 10.59 (0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 4.349% Down 0.008
NYSE Volume 53,880,820.312
Nasdaq Volume 50,073,546.875

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. says it isn't sure how much its subprime-related assets have fallen in value this quarter. Maybe it's $8 billion. Maybe it's $11 billion. On one point, though, Citigroup isn't budging: It says none of these declines began until after last quarter ended.

The news from the nation's biggest bank evokes memories of the scene from the 1984 hit comedy ``Beverly Hills Cop'' where Eddie Murphy's character, detective Axel Foley, hands a valet the keys to his beat-up Chevy Nova at a pricey country club he'd never visited before. ``Can you put this in a good spot? `Cause all of this $#@& happened the last time I parked here,'' Foley said, straight-faced.

It's as if we're supposed to believe that all this stuff at Citigroup happened after September ended, notwithstanding the $8.4 billion of bad subprime mortgage stuff at Merrill Lynch & Co. that happened before September ended. And we're also supposed to believe Citigroup's brass didn't have a clue any sooner.
.
.
.
But does it really make sense that none of the $8 billion to $11 billion slide began before Sept. 30? Citigroup's valuation models only are as good as the people who feed them. Accepting the resignation of Prince isn't going to help much in this department. What really should concern investors, though, is that Citigroup and Merrill can't possibly be alone.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_weil&sid=atmcXt12n470

9:49
Dow 13,539.50 Down 121.44 (0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,801.90 Down 23.28 (0.82%)
S&P 500 1,506.39 Down 13.88 (0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.355% Down 0.002
NYSE Volume 203,971,718.75
Nasdaq Volume 169,993,703.125

Anybody got the numbers?

Another comment by Bernard in Roubini's blog, posted 2007-11-07 09:25:00
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/224871

In the spirit of playing Level 3 games.....

It is very possible to make a "minimum" estimate of the losses that Wall Street concealed from the public in their last quarterly earnings reports.

This is done simply by tracking how much assets THEY MOVED into the Level 3 category in the last quarter compared to the previous quarter. (Please note this estimate does not even account for the actual losses sustained on ALL OF THE OTHER SECURITIES they hold in the Level 2/3 bins)

When a security no longer has any bid in the market (or bid for "similar" securities), that qualifies it for being moved into the Level 3 bin.

Therefore, the amount that these firms moved into Level 3 in the quarter tells us how much of their securities no longer had any bid in the market.

So let's look at the numbers for how much each of the Wall Street firms moved into Level 3 during the last quarter:

Goldman Sachs $18 BILLION
Morgan Stanley $25 BILLION
Lehman Brothers $13 BILLION
Bear Stearns $2 BILLION
Merrill Lynch (not reported yet)

Looks to me again like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the winners of this competition to deceive the public about their actual losses.

If you want to know where I got the numbers from, here's the link:

11/7/07 Bottomless Banking
http://www.forbes.com/home/wallstreet/2007/11/06/banking-citi-merrill-biz-wall-cx_lm_1107citi.html?partner=moreover?partner=moreover


Sorry, I wouldn't want to leave Citigroup and JP Morgan out of the competition to deceive the public about their actual losses last quarter (as shown in my last posting).

Here are the numbers for how much they moved into Level 3 last quarter:

Citigroup $41 BILLION
JP Morgan $18 BILLION

So, ladies and gentleman, the real winner of this competition is: CITIGROUP

Written by Bernard on 2007-11-07 09:46:01
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/224871

what freakin la-la land does he live in!!? Since when has gas to get to work and energy for heat and cooking come from "disposable income"? :mad:

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-09-26 Wednesday, September 26 0.99552 USD
2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD
2007-09-28 Friday, September 28 1.00412 USD
2007-10-01 Monday, October 1 1.00715 USD
2007-10-02 Tuesday, October 2 0.9998 USD
2007-10-03 Wednesday, October 3 1.00392 USD
2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD
2007-10-11 Thursday, October 11 1.02627 USD
2007-10-12 Friday, October 12 1.02701 USD
2007-10-15 Monday, October 15 1.02501 USD
2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.1019 1.1019 1.0918 1.0918 +0.0080 +0.74% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.1009 1.1009 1.0890 1.0915 +0.0078 +0.72% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.1001 1.1001 1.0917 1.0917 +0.0079 +0.73% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0962 1.0965 1.0945 1.0945 +0.0109 +1.01% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0708 1.0708 1.0708 1.0833 +0.0117 +1.08% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0501 1.0550 1.0500 1.0828 +0.0117 +1.08% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 +0.0104 +0.96% 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007   0.8754  0.8754  0.8754  0.8532 -0.0031  -0.36%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007  0.92490 0.92490 0.92490 0.92490 +0.00725 +0.78%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007   124.26  124.26  124.26  123.52 -0.06    -0.05%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007  1.57790 1.57790 1.57790 1.57455 -0.00290 -0.18%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007  0.70020 0.70060 0.70000 0.70020 +0.00145 +0.21%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007  1.35700 1.35700 1.35700 1.34335 -0.00760 -0.57%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007   166.27  166.27  165.39  165.39 -0.65    -0.39%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007  1.45770 1.45770 1.45770 1.45615 +0.00845 +0.58%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends this fall's rally into uncharted territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Upside targets are hard to project as December extends this fall's rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0441 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1043. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0611. Second support is the 20-day moving average at crossing at 1.0441.


Analysis

Oh, c'mon you KNOW I had to post today just like every other day for the past two weeks. I don't even have time for this.

I got in late last night and first thing my wife said when I walked in the door was "the loonie broke $1.10 in Asia". She knows about Loonie Watch but normally ignores it (says it's over her head), so if she brings something up, I take notice.

The CBC drive-home show (and several others) featured interviews with Canadian cattle producers, who are hurting bad because of the low greenback. Their margin on calves in extremely slim. One guy told the story about a friend of his who held out for another 5 cents on his herd, they didn't sell, then with the greenback/loonie shift he suddenly needed 20 cents to break even - no hope in hell - so they're still in his feed lot eating him out of house and home and the bank's phoning every day... You can imagine the rest - he's ruined. They're saying its worse than the BSE crisis a few years ago.

(yes, I know this has its own LBN thread)

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/274217

The potential risks – and benefits – of the higher dollar are greater now than two weeks ago when the central bank made its last report, Paul Jenkins, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, said in a speech in New York yesterday.

On one hand, the higher currency could reduce demand for exports and dampen economic output. On the other, the Canadian economy, with record-low unemployment and strong wages, could overheat because of excessive consumer demand.

As a result, the bank's key interest rate is just where it needs to be, Jenkins said.

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.1019 1.1019 1.0839 1.0839 +0.0001 +0.01% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.1009 1.1009 1.0837 1.0835 -0.0002 -0.02% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.1001 1.1001 1.0840 1.0835 -0.0003 -0.03% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0962 1.0965 1.0945 1.0833 -0.0003 -0.03% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0877 1.0877 1.0877 1.0830 -0.0003 -0.03% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0501 1.0550 1.0500 1.0825 -0.0003 -0.03% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0820 -0.0003 -0.03% 

Blather

The December Canadian dollar closed down 2 points at 1.0835 today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh contract and 30-year high early on. Today's price action produced a bearish buying "exhaustion tail," whereby buying interest dried up at higher levels and prices backed way off.

Analysis

This is rather misleading in terms of the North American markets where in terms of overnight numbers it didn't really go anywhere. Speculation in the Eastern markets blew it up all out of proportion and saner heads prevailed (at least for today).

12:21
Dow 13,463.57 Down 197.37 (1.44%)
Nasdaq 2,783.06 Down 42.12 (1.49%)
S&P 500 1,495.79 Down 24.48 (1.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.365% Up 0.008
NYSE Volume 1,116,455,875
Nasdaq Volume 1,049,462,625

12:00 pm : The stock market opened on a sharply lower note following negative news regarding Dow component General Motors (GM 34.53, -1.63) and renewed credit market concerns. The major indices are currently trading slightly above their session lows, with substantial losses.

General Motors checked in with lousy third quarter results that were marred by a near $38 billion non-cash charge for a valuation allowance against its deferred tax assets. Reuters Estimates told Briefing.com that GM's loss of $2.88 per share, adjusted for one-time items, is comparable to their consensus estimate that called for a loss of $0.36. While this charge impacts the book value of GM, it really has nothing to do with their business prospects.

The credit market continues to concern investors, as indicated by the flagging financial sector (-2.6%). A Wall Street Journal article states that Morgan Stanley (MS 51.83, -2.68) may take a $3 billion to $6 billion write-down in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo said on CNBC that he is now projecting over $50 billion of write-downs in banks/brokers in the second half of the year.

Washington Mutual's (WM 21.53, -2.70) stock is getting hammered. A Reuters report states the company's CEO said it is "hard to speculate" on the market environment in January, when the board meets to discuss its dividend policy. Market participants have already been speculating that the company will cut its dividend due to the credit market turmoil.

Defensive sectors are currently in favor. The consumer staples (-0.4%), healthcare (-0.6%), utilities (-0.7%) and telecom (-0.8%) sectors are outperforming on a relative basis.

Separately, the dollar has weakened following reports that Cheng Siwei, the Vice Chairman of China's National People's Congress, signaled China might adjust its foreign currency reserves. In keeping with the recent trend, the weakening dollar has underpinned the buying interest in oil and gold futures.

Crude oil traded in a volatile manner leading up to and following the weekly energy report that showed a smaller draw than expected. Crude surpassed $98 a barrel, but has eased a bit to $97.23.

The standard excuses of higher oil prices and a weak dollar are also making it easier for journalists to write their articles this morning. Apparently the move from $97 to $98 from yesterday to today is negative for the stock market while the move from $94 to $96.70 yesterday was not. DJ30 -152.17 NASDAQ -32.18 SP500 -18.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2124/712/892 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2615/526/534 mln

I have a personal finance question I'm trying to sort out. Maybe some of you investment and economic wizards on this thread can help me out.

If we're headed into a recession conventional wisdom is to pay down personal debt. However, the real inflation rate, unobscured by govt hoo-ha, is probably above 10% already and because of rising energy costs, costs of imports, etc, it's likely to head a lot higher, with the fed will be helpless to do anything about it. If I take out a big loan now, by the time I have to pay it back, given inflation and the falling dollar, the relative "actual" value of the amount I have to pay back should be significantly less than what I borrow now plus interest (at current low rates).

Why should I pay down loans now with dollars that are worth a lot more now than they probably will be in a couple of years (maybe months for than matter)?

... and on a macro level, if a lot of people figure this out, won't the American consumer continue the borrow and spend party that's been going on over the past few years (at least until the equity in his/her home is tapped out)?

be exposed to risk. In an uncertain market and times....YOU DON'T WANT TO TAKE ON RISK.

Let's say you paid off your house. Would you take out a loan on your house to buy stocks, or even a down payment to purchase a house to flip? In times like these? Of course not. So why wouldn't you want to pay off your debts and own your house outright.

Remember, you will get some benefit of paying off debt with cheaper dollar-but you don't want to take on risk.

I feel fortunate in that my house is paid for and have no credit card debt. But this being America, we use dollars to buy groceries and gas. What are average Americans going to do when the dollar becomes worthless? Most Americans can't move to another country, we can't convert our meager savings to Euros. We need dollars to buy the necessities. How are average Americans going to survive? Maybe we will need to return to using the barter system.

The last few years I have chosen to put money that I would have used to pay down my mortgage and bought gold with it. My return has been very nice. The gold has become an appreciating and liquid asset (at least for now) that I can use to pay down my mortgage (a fixed rate) if I need to. Obviously gold has its own risks.

I believe this is one way to benefit from our being informed ahead of the crowd - thanks to the constant flow of information we receive at sites like this. Just my two cents.

and make a payment using the gold instead of dollars? Or would you need to convert the gold to dollars first? Who exchanges gold for dollars? What if this crash is so bad, there is no one who wants to risk taking back gold and exchanging it for dollars?

that gold has been valued throughout history. I re-think my plan of attack daily, but at this point I would expect to exchange the gold for dollars to pay the mortgage, or whatever the mortgage company would take at the time. But I would expect gold to be exchangeable for that.

I think the biggest problems with gold is the manipulation (which seems to be falling apart somewhat at present) and the possibility of government action against it - whether in confiscation, taxing its benefits, or limiting its trading. It has been said that gold is the enemy of the government because its rise in value gives the message that the currency is not trustworthy, and TPTB don't want that message broadcast.

At any rate, for now, I believe this is my best course of action. I prefer it over other currencies too, since those are being inflated daily as well.

My Alma Mater, Ohio University, was chartered by the state of Ohio in 1804 and is the oldest university in the Northwest Territory. The joke is a bunch of post-Revolutionary veterans were sitting around a bar drinking it up, and decided they needed a University. They petitioned Congress to purchase one-and-a-half million acres to the north and west of the Ohio River.

The university opened in 1808 with three students who were building the University, exchanging labor for their education or later on they could pay with bales of hemp.

"A resolution of May 16, 1809, provided that payments to
the university might be made in hemp at $6.00 per cwt.: steers
three years old and not over eight at $2.50 per cwt. the hide and tallow to be included; barrows and spayed sows weighing alive not less than 250 pounds at $3.00 per cwt."

Tution was 2.00 per quarter.

And Rudy would not have been admitted, well, because:
"No student shall disguise himself by wearing women's apparel, ..."

Gotta love that hemp.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

:rofl:


That barter system may become very useful when the dollar is worthless

gold has it's own risks and many a folk has been left flat footed in the gold market. If things have cut the other way-you would have had gold that would have been worth 1/2 what you paid for and you still would be paying the mortgage.

I still think that for the best piece of mind-pay your bills off first-then invest your accumulating wealth in a variety of ways to suit you fancy.

Not everyone can invest in gold but think on this...if you are locked in a house and you have a ton of canned goods-but no can opener-isn't a humble can opener worth a lot of money or gold to you.

If you are debt free-you can get good things from people selling their possessions to meet a car note or mortgage. You can get some sweet deals.

That's the real question, IMHO. We're in a situation very much like yours, house paid off, very little debt--it would be none, but a flood of "unexpected" expenses (not really unexpected, but not expected all together) washed out our emergency fund and trickled over onto our credit card. But still, we'll have that paid off in a couple of months, and start rebuilding the emergency fund.

We too had been considering taking on debt for some "discretionary" home improvements (discretionary in that it should be done, but what we have is functional)... but the thing that decided us against it was that even though dollars will be worth less - note the space there! I don't even want to contemplate dollars being worthless... where was I? Oh, right...

Even though our dollars will be worth less, we won't be getting many more of them (Hubby is locked into a contract that provides a 2% raise each year for the next three years. What happens after that will probably be similar. So, yes better than some, but not enough to even keep up with the laughable "official" inflation number, let alone the real inflation in our everyday--and necessary--purchases like food and utilities. So, yes, the dollars we'd pay the debt back with will be cheaper than the borrowed dollars we bought the home improvements with, but more of our income will be going out to pay for necessities, so the loan payments will represent a bigger share of what's left over.

This is kind of rambling... maybe an illustration will make more sense

If we have say, $1,000 a month income (we have more, but round numbers are easier)

$200 goes to savings
$200 goes to food
$200 goes to utilities & gas
$200 goes to semi-necessary "descretionary" things like clothes, books, entertainment, normal monthly stuff.

That leaves $200 to either add to savings, use for more purely discretionary purchases, or put toward debt payment. "Necessities" and "semi-necessities" are about 60% of our budget.

Ok, 10 years down the road, our annual 2% raise has given our income a boost to almost $1200.00 (actually, $1195.09... but, round numbers, again). But look at what's happened to the $600 we more or less *have* to spend (yeah, we could cut back on books, but I know we won't).

Guessing at even a very low "real-world" inflation rate of 5%, those "necessities" now cost $930 - 77.5% of our income - leaving us $270 "extra" for savings, debt service, or "luxuries." If we have a debt service of $200, we're barely making ends meet, and not really saving anything.

Bad idea, for us. But if you think your income will keep pace with *real* inflation, go for it!

I posted this in the Economics forum too, and as I was reading the responses, it occurred to me that that "top line" "$200 savings" isn't really savings. It's where we stash money for necessary expenses that are predictable, but not monthly. Like property taxes, insurance, vet and dental bills. So, adding that to the $600 "necessities and semi-necessities" means that we'll be in the hole to the tune of $40 in ten years. I.e., the $800 of "necessities and semi-necessities" will grow to $1240 in ten years. (Assuming those things will grow at the same rate of inflation as the rest. No, they probably won't, but some things will increase MORE, so it's a good average for illustration.)

Off to hide under the covers and suck my thumb...

Diwali is usually a lucrative time of year for local Indian-American retailers and caterers.

Now some mainstream businesses are catching on to the popular Hindu holiday and marketing to the area’s growing Indian population.

In recent years, Hallmark has launched Diwali greeting cards, porcelain figurine maker Lladró has launched a line of Hindu deities and Wells Fargo and Citibank are running special promotions. Some companies are also using the time to build goodwill with clients and employees with celebrations and season’s greetings.

<snip>

Diwali essentially marks the victory of good over evil, knowledge over ignorance and light over darkness, often represented by decorating the home with candles, lights and lamps.

...more

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5280021.html

I guess if we do have to add another holiday to the calendar-I wouldn't mind celebrating good over evil, knowledge over ignorance, and light over dark.

Dow 13,396.10 264.84 (1.94%)
Nasdaq 2,772.17 53.01 (1.88%)
S&P 500 1,485.83 34.44 (2.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.353% 0.004

NYSE Volume 1,526,397,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,403,762,250

1:00 pm : Crude oil is now down 1.1% to $95.64. Oil has been highly volatile this session, as it surpassed $98 on two occasions. The decline in oil prices has helped the Amex Airline Index and Dow Jones Transportation average pare some of their losses. The same cannot be said, however, for the broader market, which is trading at its worst levels of the session.

The highly influential financial sector (-3.6%) continues to be the main drag, but there is also weakness in materials (-2.1%). The stock market typically has a hard time making advances without the support of financials, due to its heavy 20% weighting. DJ30 -189.91 DJTA -2.5% NASDAQ -41.91 SP500 -23.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2228/659/1.16 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2727/455/703 mln

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 is roughly 9 points above the 1490 level, which is viewed by technical traders as a key area of support. Note that the market managed a healthy rebound from large losses on Monday when that area was retested and held. Given the negative tone of today's trading, it stands to reason that we may see another retest of the 1490 area, which will invite some interesting trading action.

Crude prices have eased off their intraday highs, but are still trading near record levels. The high crude prices are reflected in the underperformance of the Amex Airline Index (-3.0%) and the Dow Jones Transportation average (-2.4%). Including this session's decline, the Amex Airline Index is down 29.8% year-to-date.DJ30 -174.60 NASDAQ -38.93 SP500 -21.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2178/675/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2650/517/610 mln

12:00 pm : The stock market opened on a sharply lower note following negative news regarding Dow component General Motors (GM 34.53, -1.63) and renewed credit market concerns. The major indices are currently trading slightly above their session lows, with substantial losses.

General Motors checked in with lousy third quarter results that were marred by a near $38 billion non-cash charge for a valuation allowance against its deferred tax assets. Reuters Estimates told Briefing.com that GM's loss of $2.88 per share, adjusted for one-time items, is comparable to their consensus estimate that called for a loss of $0.36. While this charge impacts the book value of GM, it really has nothing to do with their business prospects.

The credit market continues to concern investors, as indicated by the flagging financial sector (-2.6%). A Wall Street Journal article states that Morgan Stanley (MS 51.83, -2.68) may take a $3 billion to $6 billion write-down in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo said on CNBC that he is now projecting over $50 billion of write-downs in banks/brokers in the second half of the year.

Washington Mutual's (WM 21.53, -2.70) stock is getting hammered. A Reuters report states the company's CEO said it is "hard to speculate" on the market environment in January, when the board meets to discuss its dividend policy. Market participants have already been speculating that the company will cut its dividend due to the credit market turmoil.

Defensive sectors are currently in favor. The consumer staples (-0.4%), healthcare (-0.6%), utilities (-0.7%) and telecom (-0.8%) sectors are outperforming on a relative basis.

Separately, the dollar has weakened following reports that Cheng Siwei, the Vice Chairman of China's National People's Congress, signaled China might adjust its foreign currency reserves. In keeping with the recent trend, the weakening dollar has underpinned the buying interest in oil and gold futures.

Crude oil traded in a volatile manner leading up to and following the weekly energy report that showed a smaller draw than expected. Crude surpassed $98 a barrel, but has eased a bit to $97.23.

The standard excuses of higher oil prices and a weak dollar are also making it easier for journalists to write their articles this morning. Apparently the move from $97 to $98 from yesterday to today is negative for the stock market while the move from $94 to $96.70 yesterday was not. DJ30 -152.17 NASDAQ -32.18 SP500 -18.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2124/712/892 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2615/526/534 mln

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/17f683c2-8c9b-11dc-b887-0000779fd2ac.html

To be honest with you I have been mighty hung over from our rockin' victory party last night to even think about the markets. Every single one of our Dem candidates won last night by a comfortable margin. It was nice to be at an election night gig and leave victorious for a change.

Looks like a lot of blood on the street today. Gold's lookin' might fine though, eh?

Julie

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idLTAN0752610720071107?rpc=44

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S.-listed shares of overseas companies fell on Wednesday, dragged down by exporters which face a tougher sales environment as the dollar plumbs new lows against other currencies.

The Bank of New York's index of leading American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) (.BKADR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1.8 percent while the 30-share Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI: Quote, Profile, Research) was 1.9 percent lower at 13,405.05.

Asian ADRs were the worst performers as the region is home to many manufacturers whose goods become more expensive to U.S. buyers as the greenback's value erodes.

The Bank of New York's index of leading Asian ADRs (.BKAS: Quote, Profile, Research) slumped 2.8 percent. In Asia, shares ended mixed.

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro <EUR=>, a 26-year low against sterling <GBP=> and a 12-year low against the Swiss franc <CHF=> after a Chinese official's comments raised fears the world's fourth-largest economy would reduce holdings of U.S. assets.

/...

Source: (NYBOT:DX)

It could be a nasty day...


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i&w=5&t=f&a=2

Read more: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i&w=5&t=f&a=2

But, hey, there's no inflation.

Ah, CNBC just announced China is moving to diversify over $1 trillion in investments (I'm assuming currency?)

Gas is up to 2.95 here in georgia. And i can't help but notice every week when I go grocery shopping how food is rising. Last week, hamburger was up .50 a pound, bread .40 more, etc. No inflation my ass.

Wholesale gas has risen over 10% in the last week and a half or so.

Warming republicon hearts as they drain the wallets of the Proles*


* Formerly known as Citizens of the United States of America

it's locally grown. Gas is in the $3.20 range for regular.

With food it's reached the point where going out for a light meal is cheaper than going to the market. Everything is sky high.

it will have to collapse if it cannot find lenders. This is just the start, but Holy Shit.

China is starting to move out of buying our debt, and plans to diversify:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOoJCF.XMFsY&refer=home

This will only put more pressure on the dollar, and if bernake lowers interest rates again, the dollar will drop even further, and oil will accelerate higher

The policy of trashing our currency as an economic policy will prove even more foolish than reagan's supply side economics
helped accelerate our already bad defceit

S&P futures are already down over 1%, which if it stays will equate to over a hundred point plus drop on the dow

Stay tuned.

Dollar stumbles to new lows on call for China sales
Gold futures climb to nearly $850 an ounce; crude oil vaults above $98 a barrel

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-slumps-top-china-official/story.aspx?guid=%7B49785919%2D0D1E%2D4E6A%2DBF51%2DD1DD1D2A874E%7D




Hold on to something tight, folks!

it won't take one bullet to defeat America. A few nations (VERY few) can topple this once great nation without ever firing a shot. And it looks as if it's already underway.

What scares me is what the paranoid, delusional, petulant imbecile in the White House might decide to do about it. World War III would be the ultimate distraction for a decimated economy.

. . . you heard it here first.

Canadian dollar at .9094 to the USD??? :wow: :wow:



Spot gold past $842/oz.

Commodity prices skyrocketing, too.

I don;t think it's ever been this low. Guess I'll cross off the annual trip to Halifax off the list.

makes little sense.

I'm not an expert but I was considering that china holds a ton of our debt a while back and thinking they could crash the country if they felt like it... screw nukes or armies, they don't need them.. they have us by the *****...

However, if they don't sell their cheap crap goods to us then they really won't be able to keep booming... so they can't screw us over YET...

Which means they can't just go dumping our debt. If we pay less for their stuff then they won't make as much.. it's shooting themselves in the foot.

Eventually they will produce stuff for the majority of the world and then the U.S with it's weak dollar will be worthless to them... at that point they'll either just buy the rest of our country or screw us so badly we can't do a thing.

When you say: "... so they can't screw us over YET..."

The BIG problem is they CAN!
Since the US economy is paranoiacly centered in the consumer spending
then the other way to "screw" is the "self-screw" a.k.a. NOT spending!

China's internal demand is growing at an accelerated pace.

Soon (5-6 years) they won't rely on US exports as much as now and then the real fun will start. They can and will do anything at that time to get their point across.

Wrong.

China needs American markets about as much as America needs * as pResident.

They'll keep booming regardless of the Wal-Mart et al cash cow.

The 21st century is going to be the Chinese century.

It'll soon become undeniable, even for USA'ans.

:eyes:

They've been bleeding the American people for decades. Now they finish the slaughter. Say good-bye to democracy in the USA - it's a one year countdown...

Final Countdown
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZkllM8znx4



:)

I've just started it & can't put it down. It should be required reading.

:scared:

I bet the DOW tanks 300 pts. Oil goes over $100 barrel by noon.

The prop will not last long...wait
till the 10:30 oil inventory numbers
come out...:crazy:

Every Wednesday, follow this thread. Oil stockpiles didn't fall by as much as expected, but gasoline fell by a little more than expected.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic28807-0-asc-870.html

I heard a nice man (Sean somebody) say on the Victrolla that economy was doing great. This is just a little bump in the road.

:rofl:

:rofl:

13,300.02 -360.92 -2.64%

and the dollar goes to hell in a very small handbasket...

(have been trying to get some garden work done before the rains seriously start)

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2007/11/07/500-billion-the-mother-of-all-write-down-estimates/?mod=yahoo_hs

$500 Billion: The Mother of All Write-Down Estimates
Posted by Dana Cimilluca
Write this down: five hundred billion dollars.

That is how much one analyst thinks the tally of the carnage in the fixed-income markets ultimately could be. Royal Bank of Scotland Group chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah put out a report today estimating that the credit crunch will cause $250 billion to $500 billion of losses at banks and brokers around the world.

As Bloomberg points out in this story on the report, the estimate includes not just losses on subprime mortgage-related bonds but also the effect of a new accounting standard that goes into effect Nov. 15 known as Financial Accounting Standards Board’s rule 157. It will force companies to put values on opaque securities and could lead to write downs of as much as $100 billion at firms including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group, according to Janjuah.

Should the estimate prove accurate, it would mean the credit-market storm that began this summer is just beginning. The total of write-downs already announced by Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and the other Wall Street firms is only about $30 billion to $40 billion.

Big as those numbers are, they still don’t come close to the last major crop of write-downs, when another accounting change prompted eye-popping losses at companies including AT&T and AOL Time Warner in 2002. The media-and-Internet conglomerate had write-downs that year for goodwill and soured Internet assets of roughly $100 billion.

Still, Janjuah’s number is in a league by itself. Not only is the upper end of his range roughly what the U.S. has spent on the Iraq War, it is about equal to the market caps of the three largest U.S. banks, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America, combined.
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2007/11/07/500-billion-the-mother-of-all-write-down-estimates/?mod=yahoo_hs

:wow:



it's going to get really nasty out there

of the last months, the plummeting dollar and the housing market bubble bursting, is even more relevant today. It is long, 33 pages, but, imo, well worth the read.

It is titled, " Will There Be A Dollar Crisis

http://www.econ.princeton.edu/seminars/WEEKLY%20SEMINAR%20SCHEDULE/SPRING_05-06/April_24/Krugman.pdf

Edited to add: My thanks to n2doc for the link!

Dow 13,300.02 360.92 (2.64%)
Nasdaq 2,748.76 76.42 (2.70%)
S&P 500 1,475.62 44.65 (2.94%)
10-Yr Bond 4.334% 0.023

NYSE Volume 4,301,126,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,561,721,000

4:25 pm : It was one of those nerve-wracking days on Wall Street where just about everything got hit - and hit hard. The biggest blow was suffered by the financial sector, which plummeted 5.1% amid a batch of headlines that stoked concerns about the fallout from the housing market's severe downturn.

Washington Mutual (WM 20.04, -4.19) was at the epicenter of the concerns after being accused by the New York Attorney General of pressuring real estate appraisers to inflate the value of their appraisals. Both Fannie Mae (FNM 49.79, -5.60) and Freddie Mac (FRE 45.13, -4.26) were subpoenaed in this matter as the Attorney General is seeking information on the mortgages they bought from Washington Mutual and other banks.

The word "collusion" was used by the New York Attorney General, which rattled investors who didn't like the implication of widespread fraud.

In light of this development, and a Royal Bank of Scotland report suggesting losses related to the credit crisis could ultimately top $250 billion, financial stocks were dumped en masse.

The financial sector fallout wasn't event the half of it, so to speak, on Wednesday.

Stock holders were also rattled by General Motors (GM 33.95, -2.21) reporting a third quarter loss of $39 billion after writing down the value of future tax benefits. Excluding the accounting adjustment, GM lost $2.80 per share in the period as mortgage-related losses at GMAC, in which it holds a 49% stake, more than offset the small profit from its automotive operations. Analysts had been expecting a loss of $0.36.

The weakneing dollar also occupied the market's attention all day, as it got knocked back on a report that China might pursue a plan to adjust its dollar holdings in favor of stronger currencies. The dollar index hit its lowest level since inception at 75.077 before rebounding a bit to finish the day down 0.8% at 75.412.

The dollar weakness was again seen as a buying catalyst for commodity traders who bid oil and gold futures as high as $98.62 and $855.00 at one point.

Oil prices eventually sold off and finished the day down 0.3% at $96.37. The reversal was attributed to profit-taking as the contract neared $100 and to a weekly inventory report that showed a lower than expected drawdown in stockpiles.

A report that third quarter productivity rose 4.9%, while unit labor costs declined 0.2%, was completely overlooked by the market despite being good news from an inflation standpoint.

The Treasury market took some notice, but it was driven primarily by a flight-to-quality trade that coincided with the stock market sell-off.

The 10-year note gained 12 ticks, bringing its yield down to 4.33%. The strongest buying action, though, was at the front of the Treasury curve as the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill dropped 30 basis points to 3.43% with traders registering concerns about the credit market mess and frontrunning the possibility of another Fed rate cut.

The market will get some important insight Thursday on Fed policy when Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee on the economic outlook.DJ30 -360.92 DJTA -3.2% DJUA -2.4% NASDAQ -76.42 NQ100 -2.5% R2K -3.2% SOX -2.5% SP400 -2.3% SP500 -44.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2444/587/2.53 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2995/301/1.66 bln

3:30 pm : Heading into the final half-hour of trading, the major indices are holding near the bottom of their intraday ranges. All ten economic sectors spent the entirety of the session in negative territory.

Released at 15:00 ET, consumer credit for September came in at $3.7 billion versus a consensus estimate that called for a reading of $9.0 billion. This monthly measure of consumer debt is volatile and subject to massive revisions. It is also released well after every other consumer spending indicator, including weekly chain store sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, retail sales, and personal consumption. For these reasons, the market almost never reacts to the consumer credit report.

After the close, 59 companies are confirmed to report, including AIG (AIG 58.18, -3.87) and Cisco (CSCO 33.20, -0.88). Regarding AIG, the stock is down due to concerns the company might announce a write-down due to mortgage exposure.DJ30 -270.77 NASDAQ -66.15 SP500 -33.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2360/654/1.96 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2874/387/1.19 bln

3:00 pm : After slowly drifting upward for the past hour, the indices are back on the retreat. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index is again underperforming the broader market. At current levels, the index is showing a loss year-to-date.

Declines are broad-based this session, as indicated by the low 0.16 advancer to decliner ratio at the NYSE.

The DXY Index, which compares the dollar against major currencies, is off its lows, but still trading with a considerable 0.8% loss.DJ30 -253.62 NASDAQ -51.67 R2K -2.5% SP500 -31.00 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2324/665/1.76 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2814/440/1.11 bln

Source: Reuters

Market plunges on heightened credit fears
Wed Nov 7, 2007 4:37pm EST

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled on Wednesday as
a probe of the home loan industry by New York's attorney
general drew in the country's biggest mortgage finance
companies and Washington Mutual Inc warned the housing
downturn would extend well into next year.

The S&P 500 had its biggest daily percentage drop since
August.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said his office
was sending subpoenas to government-sponsored mortgage
financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as part of a probe
of the home loan industry.

Also, Washington Mutual Inc, the largest U.S. savings and
loan company, said the housing slump will persist through
2008, loan losses will rise and mortgage lending will fall
to an eight-year low. Washington Mutual was also a focus
of Cuomo's investigation.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL3057195020071107