Warning on Impact of China and India Oil Demand

Source: NYTimes

LONDON, Nov. 7 — A leading international energy agency today urged oil-producing countries to replenish crude oil inventories in light of a record oil price.

In unusually urgent tones, the International Energy Agency warned that demand for oil imports by China and India will almost quadruple by 2030 and could create a supply “crunch” as soon as 2015 if oil producers do not step up production, energy efficiency fails to improve and demand from the two countries is not dampened.

“At current prices the market is signaling that stocks need to be higher, something that is in the power of producers to address,” Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the I.E.A., told journalists at a briefing in London. “Since this time last year, the world outlook has deteriorated. Demand is higher and supply worsening.”

Bolstered by speedy economic development and industrialization, energy demand from Asia has been one of the main contributors to higher oil prices. Over the last two years, China and India accounted for about 70 percent of the increase in energy demand and the world’s energy needs would increase 55 percent by 2030. Another reason for higher prices is investments not made by oil producers, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency said.



Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/07/business/07cnd-energy.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

What a mess we are all heading toward.

Wars will be fought over Oil and Water
until we change

I've been screaming about this for years. Just follow the population. Whomever has the most users is going to be the biggest user. And they're full on gearing up. New cars for all. I don't give a damn if they're small. A prius is a car. And not fractionally much different than an suv in many ways.

And people only become more dependent upon modern living. Not less. Everything is done with cars now. Almost everything. It's pathetic.

So get ready. Since everyone can't seem to consolidate and save and slow down.

and everyone and their uncle rush to the store in hopes of getting some supplies before the event hits.

Now amply that a billion times over, that is what we are heading into.

no one is prepared. even the ones that think they are prepared aren't prepared.

No one in the US society currently alive, knows what it's like to live a life without oil.

it's going to be a humdinger. Heavy on the dinger.

couple that with climate change and a humdinger turns into, "holy shit we are fucked". Heavy on the fucked part.

this is such a "not pretty" picture you're painting for us, and I know I shouldn't be smiling, but the way you described it, "heavy on dinger" and "heavy on fucked" is just so funny!

peace.

A couple of things. First, I have been looking for that very picture for ages. I remember that so well.

I was trying to be a part of a group who were buying about four thousand acres up here in Mendocino. These people want a sustainable community. And in support of your statements, I have to stress that to be sustainable one must not only have a readily available source of water, but one must have the ability to eat. Let's just forget about medical stuff. Now these people want to farm and grow their own meat. Unless they do this totally by hand, they'll need at least a tractor. But the minute one asks for anything modern, they need the whole shebang. Bearings, for example. Just bearings means having a factory somewhere that is making them. And a place that is mining the metal. And trucks to transport them. And an infrastructure over which to move them. You need everything. So the way I see it is, we either live like we lived for all of eternity, or we kill the planet. But that is only the case because we have so many people. The planet can absorb a certain amount. So the real problem is not modern living as much as it is population.

The way I see it, we've painted ourselves into a corner. I'm not trying to survive. I'm just watching. And I am not even going to pretend I can survive. Although as an interesting example, in the 70's I used to row a boat out into the San Francisco bay. And there was a guy who lived out there in the marshes, in a reed boat. It was interesting. I wonder what he's doing now. Probably a stock broker.

I found it in a book and scanned it. That's when people really knew how to protest. :)

I'm right there with you. I save rain water and have a garden, but I know deep down that in reality, it's only a fart in the wind.

everyone wants to be "green" but in order to be the kind of green that we need to be in order to survive after peak oil, I really don't think people really have a clue.

Most of the pop thinks that if I replace a few light bulbs, ride a bike, take the bus, drive less, blah blah blah, everything will be juuuuuust fine. Nothing more than whistling past the grave yard.

They want to go from A to B to C and say, "look how great I am".

but like you pointed out, in order to go from A to B, there are a thousand little steps that have to happen and suddenly, going from A to B becomes going from A to Z just to get to an even keel.

I remember a buddy of mind back in the 80's when we were all living under the threat of Nuclear War. He said, "screw it, if I know the bombs are coming, I'm going to get a six pack, sit on my roof and watch the show, there's no leaving Long Island, we are all brickets".

I think about that a lot these days. Interesting statement. We are in the "squeezing blood from a stone" era now. Wringing the last drops of easy fuel from the earth. Once we have no choice and have to use the hard to get stinking expensive stuff as our sole means of oil supply, society will freak out.

No one really gives any thought to how we get things, the majority of Americans think items just appear on the shelves or produce in the bins. Poof, it's there. No one thinks how it got there.

We are nearing the end of the rain bow. Sadly, the pot of gold is empty and filled with I.O.U.'s.

Reading that was rare. Those are all thoughts I have. But I grew up with the complete information on how it all works. Most people don't have engineers for fathers. Let alone engineers who "see" it.

I was just on my way back from somewhere, and all of the cars in the oncoming lane. I just thought to myself, since they don't actually see the melting ice caps, they just don't know. Global warming is out of sight, out of mind.

Anyways, I think it's wasted breath, after all of these years of yelling. And besides, I'm part of it, as frugal as I am.

If anyone thinks this war and the next war are about anything other than oil and keeping China in check, please read about the PNAC.

I remember the good old days of 99cents per gallon.

Change the patterns somewhat. But look at the number of people who are already spending around $8000/yr on a vehical and insurance. Then 15,000 miles/yr @ 30 miles /gal = 500 Gal or $5000 or an extra $3500/yr ($300/mo) over today. They will probably buy a cheaper car and maybe one that gets slightly better milage. But they won't stop at that low a price.

the IEA is urging petroleum producing countries to "turn up the spigot". We've got a crisis looming here, and that oil needs to go Full Blast.

~ sound of crickets chirping.

I believe OPEC is responsible for about 60% of the world's oil production. That includes Iran which is a major oil producer and a member of OPEC.

Any word from these folks?

Clue ~
Now, I will tell this: the Oil producing countries LOVE absolutely LOVE high oil prices. It's Santa Claws, Easter all rolled in to one. It brings an enormous amount of revenue to the countries, while the dreaded / hated Hegemon goes down on his knees. It's a real win-win situation for them.
So why would they turn on the spigots? It also encourages conservation and they LIKE that Cuz they still got the stuff.
For every penny that oil goes up, Iran GROWS in power and the U.S. DECLINES in power.